DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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You know the rules, lower grass = optics that there is more snow out there...
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I guess I missed some deleted posts that have ensued today Where's Chris been? Haven't seen him on the threads this winter yet.
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Yep, I did see that, versus basically a forecast of rain/some mix.
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Checked a low of the locations in NW AR, a few that are 32-34 with snow & mix were forecasted for 38-39 and rain. Radar is juicy here early on. Nice plume of GoM moisture.
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Just my opinion, having been in the MA thread for years before moving to Carroll Valley, ERS might be in my regards one of the more pessimistic and less credible red taggers in that forum. Not to incite gossip but there was a time 2-3 years ago where when his name popped up a lot of folks in there would prepare themselves for what they were gonna read next.
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You know the drill, those on the all snow side but close to the R/S line will get hit hardest with that thump and rates.
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It's actually a pretty hefty thump and surface temps are slightly colder in the heavy frames (not surprised, driven by rates)
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I’m hoping that LP prolly is wrong, it would be a busy to a lot of the models even from 12 hours ago and prior that didn’t have that evolution.
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The 6z euro was pretty dry compared to other guidance and that was immediately following it juicing back up yesterday. we crushed 6z euros in the lead up this one, have gone 0/4 so far.
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The difference in outputted qpf is really what bothers me with these depictions, especially since rate dependencies are driving a lot of snow outputs.
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I think we all hope the euro is up to 2022-2024 euro things, and not pre 22 dr.no that was right a lot things.
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Gfs with 6-8” right there in the middle. Nam and 3 were crushing at 0z then north at 6z. The limbo continues.
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It’s actually embarrassing that we can’t even get the nature of the low pressure tracks and transfers down, miller B and A are toggling <48 hours out.
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As others have said, the GFS (and/or all the models) have to get QPF and/or intensity right to get surface temps correct. DP's leading in are cold, give folks heavy precip and I'm thinking they'll roll the dice - a la what PSU said.
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This is a nice improvement at the surface over the last 3 runs.
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Some things to like about this run, not a bad LP track either. Better outcome than the 12 & 18z dumpster fires
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Sure, some things are better leading in, some are worse. So much sporadic s/w energy to model properly. If the NAM is honing in the wrong place, it's not going be close to the right solution. Not saying its flat out wrong, but easy to get derailed.
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Definitely a better press of confluence in the north, but warmer antecedent airmass over us... purely a southern wave makes it tough to tie in much cold air.
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It is also 3mb stronger for our LP at h51 vs 18z (1004 on 0z), but vort isn't really noticably more intense. Heights are higher out in front over us.
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I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event).
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Will be interested to see the thermals on the EPS for indy members. They have decent resolution compared to members of GEFS/GEPS. The mean & more importantly the median ticked up at 12z after a not so great op run.
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Let’s see what curveballs the 0z suite has in store for us. Need that 0z run good we’ve had the last 2 nights
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Is that saying 1-3 western London to Hagerstown through Gettysburg? Would be a bust on the very low end for models in those parts.
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Why can't it just be right once... or close would also work too.
