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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    Definitely saw it coming. I prefer southern stream dominant patterns, it's sad to see the inevitable coming. When I realized the synoptic differences between the Euro and the rest of the crowd were at 60hrs after we trended to an "easier" way to win, I immediately started worrying. But here we are...
  2. DDweatherman
    Randy's ready to say next on the 18z GFS already...
  3. DDweatherman
    You mean 12z that only goes out to 72?
  4. DDweatherman
    More than that, we need it to synoptically just look more like the other 12z suite models. Interested to see if the UK holds the big storm idea. Also gonna be watching TPV positioning and orientation like a hawk.
  5. DDweatherman
    And CMC supports it on today's 12z run Nice look
  6. DDweatherman
    I think a lot of us are okay with that happening in 2 hours.
  7. DDweatherman
    Absolutely, we've seen the TPV modeled differently in location and orientation on almost every run of every model this week. Subtle differences having big impacts.
  8. DDweatherman
    This looks like a chattanooga choo choo, just saying for those old enthusiasts. The long stripe.
  9. DDweatherman
    2-5 area wide we'd all take right now. What people worry is it cuts in half, then if it cuts in half again...
  10. DDweatherman
    Yep, its FOLKS worthy, if only the CMC looked like the GFS and GFS showed the Canadian solution...I'd be a lot happier, but good to see it stay with a solid evolution. No kicker up in the PNW like Euro.
  11. DDweatherman
    This was one of the positives of the GFS to note, the evolution is definitely different in the two, and I wouldn't classify this as a "cave" to the Euro. It's a difference in tilt and amplification that's gonna change from run to run. The problem is we get our 3-4" from the trailing energy amplifying and splitting which is a tough evolution to bank on.
  12. DDweatherman
    I'm really not surprised, trend the last 4 runs. 12z is the sore thumb that sticks out sadly.
  13. DDweatherman
    Agreed, the orientation of the trough and energies for phasing doesn't have the same alignment for clean phasing and giving a nice runway to climb the coast. If I didn't look at surface panels, I'd assume a worse outcome.
  14. DDweatherman
    Little bit of difference that I don't necessarily love.
  15. DDweatherman
    One thing to make note of regarding early frames and the evolution is what @psuhoffman was mentioning as to where the GFS camp and Euro camps diverge. The split happens about 60-72 hours into the evolution and how wave intensities are handled. That's absolutely something to watch on the 12z GFS and even on the secondary models (UK, CMC). The euro isn't the euro of old, but messing up evolution of energies 60hrs out would be unusual.
  16. DDweatherman
    How many people do you think you made pause with that first line?
  17. DDweatherman
    Good inputs. I’d argue you gave us 3 cents, but agreed on the simple evolution and easier wins. We don’t get many of those opps around here
  18. DDweatherman
    Where’s Randall? It’s his turn and he’s not at the club right now. I need to hear/see FOLKS or I’m gonna be pissed off lol
  19. DDweatherman
    This is an excellent plan if you ask me. It's gonna be painful as shit when the 12z starts moving to the Euro camp and we all want to kill each other.
  20. DDweatherman
    ICON looks more like GFS in evolution early on but delays the low development a lot longer than last run. It has been bouncing around a good bit.
  21. DDweatherman
    Don't you ever say that, but we all are in the hopium camp for GFS being our leader (and UKMET too while we're at it )
  22. DDweatherman
    If that kicker is modeled more accurately by the Euro, it certainly flattens the flow and dampens out our wave, not really having any chance at the phase the GFS is now onboard showing.
  23. DDweatherman
    Cascade/fort Ritchie has snow haha
  24. DDweatherman
    Over here at the coffee shop in Carroll Valley, guy couldn’t get up the hill on 16 to Blue Ridge summit…just had to turn around and come back down.
  25. DDweatherman
    Same, interesting lol. cars covered
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