DDweatherman

Run to run there are fluctuations, each model gets drier than another gets wetter, etc. 12z GFS was an ideal location for the vort pass

H5 almost carbon copy of 6z to my eyes

I agree, the stingy ass icon just painted 3-5” over most of us. RGEM improved, 3k was solid, need more be said?

I like the uppers in the icon and the synoptic set up. One thing I don’t expect is a weaker vort. Give me the rest and I expect a pretty juicy h5 wave & corresponding pass

Yeah, let’s just close up shop. To hell with it, hope the icon shows 4-6” just because now

Look too for the jet to align and give us the good rates/ascent.

Agreed. We take

For a run that shitty, results weren’t that much worse. vort pass still is strong and not a bad track. 40-50 miles south is money.

You mean h54?

Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm?

For now, we just hope it’s the nam. If other 12z runs look like it, this thread is done.

I’d take that all day. 2-4 for all

One thing we absolutely want to keep seeing is a great vort pass at h5. That coupled with a good jet interaction will help squeeze out good rates when snow is actually falling. Any interaction between the energies we can get will help produce the rgem/icon outcomes.

6z runs put about 3” across mby. Okay, I’ll take it. Pattern is gonna start turning back to our favor by EOM.

I just look at the QPF maps. I’m thinking about 12:1 SLR’s for this. 6z runs weren’t bad vs some of the 0z suite. I’ll take another 3” any day. Bar is 2”

When it’s all said and done, more moderate precip associated with a weak LP that tracked into S WV produced QPF amounts similar to 18z over the CWA. verbatim it’s 2-4 for most and some upside to 5” for the NE MD pummeled crew. on paper, it’s a solid run. Only concern is the base of the trough and our s/w pass was slightly north of the past 2 runs in a broader/more positive tilt. We’re coinciding with a good UL jet for moderate precip, but don’t want to see too many more north trends with the vort/axis today (Wednesday).

6z NAM looks less diggy through h30, more progressive wave in a flatter trough. But in the spirit of Randy, let's wait until hr 42 or 48 to really make a call.

Let’s just go with that at least until the NAM and JV models are out at 0z. We need @stormtracker to save us

It’s more about the qpf at the coast that actually showed us close to the goods from coastal enhancement and interaction between the energies. 18z euro simply gave qpf from the s/w passage, which isn’t bad…but it’s going to be a 1-3” at best strictly from that and nothing else.

Just reading the model verbatim…after 4 runs trending in the right direction, we just saw our QPF chopped in half in one run… feels like a shitty run to see with our momentum. But maybe the euro is trying to start at 0 like it did for yesterday/today’s storm 4 days out. sadly we can’t withstand a full 24 hours of bad runs, not enough lead time. We need this back to 18z levels by 12z tomorrow

I see a new thread been give at about 130am tonight

Did you go buy a poncho and sand bags for the upcoming floods?

That's really the one thing that kept this from being an actual big dog, that positively tilted lobe and energy racing out in front. It's still close to being more as @psuhoffman said, but time is a little limited on getting what we need. A small change though would have big implications.

S/w coming down was dug actually further south than 12z, but the trough seemed broader then we'd like. Need more interaction of those energies. Close. That's why the runs can be juiced then dry, a little difference has a big impact.

How feasible do you think any interaction is with that? Especially given we're at relatively short leads. I mean the energy you're referring to isn't THAT far out in front of the s/w.