DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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If only we had the skiers part, count me in on the entertainment (maybe paintballs?), liberty is the only one of the 3 local spots not to be back open today we drove over to the base to see the situation, they’re getting close and have their big pile from the guns at the bottom, but looks like many of the trails are pretty bare. just from what I hear here, the snow crews at Whitetail and roundtop are better at readying the ship
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Very nice drop in visibility and rates increasing here. the sound of the guns at ski liberty in the background.
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I’m saying based on ops, no need to hope it changes back over, we know the drill here. Rate dependency. “Hopefully it's temporary, or we're all out of luck south of Harrisburg. “ we know it’s temporary is my point
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All snow over here still, just got back from a coffee run, holding strong on temps.
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Stop panicking. We’re fine. If expectations are in check, we’re tracking fine. Hrrr has 1” or less by 12pm.
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14z HRRR is again pretty snowy up the 81/15 corridors through MDT.
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Second that roads caved quickly.
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Snowing nicely in Carroll valley 28
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Because they show snowy solutions sometimes obviously… we like those
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No mix here and snow coming down, 28 degrees. Right on the M/D line near Emmitsburg.
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Snow underway here in Carroll Valley, 28 degrees. Not mixing at the moment
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Still 27/21 here in Carroll Valley. Not too bad in the T/DP department
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The NAM is the worst model for QPF output and evolution of any that exist, it only really can be reliable for thermals and MOS type guidance on temps
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of course HRRR 12z after shutting people down for the day 24hrs
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okay, now ya can post it haha temps are dropping fast over here. Down to 30/19
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well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right
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Yeah, don't you dare say that is what some people are thinking.
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You will also do quite well at your 750 ft elevation. I'm about 860ft here in Carroll Valley.
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That's why i shared this GIF in our PA thread, trend to boost QPF is absolutely what we want & need to see.
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Sure, I understand. For "us" its actually heavier on the totals, but as you get into york, there's that sharp cutoff, I agree. Weird as I just dug deeper into the soundings and the layers are cooler aloft a bit. Seems it could be an algorithm thing. You can't hate seeing the QPF tick up over an inch solidly on 18z coming in hot & heavy.
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To continue with image files, best part about GFS is the heaviness of the QPF/rates. Heres the trend last 3 runs, ticking upward, 1" QPF 81 & east.
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Also want to show this nice dew point depression leading in, going to be helpful for wetbulbing down to a more favorable temp at onset.
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Eh, here's our sounding though for the second frame of heavy stuff. With the rates we have, its definitely a snow sounding. Isothermal.
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@mitchnick I'm mobile ATM, but someone post the RGEM. It came nicely SE and we are in the bullseye through the southern counties corridor @ about 10"
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A lot of times the temp will creep back up slightly once the cloud deck moves in. The dews staying down are pretty key.
