DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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The 6z euro was pretty dry compared to other guidance and that was immediately following it juicing back up yesterday. we crushed 6z euros in the lead up this one, have gone 0/4 so far.
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The difference in outputted qpf is really what bothers me with these depictions, especially since rate dependencies are driving a lot of snow outputs.
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I think we all hope the euro is up to 2022-2024 euro things, and not pre 22 dr.no that was right a lot things.
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Gfs with 6-8” right there in the middle. Nam and 3 were crushing at 0z then north at 6z. The limbo continues.
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It’s actually embarrassing that we can’t even get the nature of the low pressure tracks and transfers down, miller B and A are toggling <48 hours out.
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As others have said, the GFS (and/or all the models) have to get QPF and/or intensity right to get surface temps correct. DP's leading in are cold, give folks heavy precip and I'm thinking they'll roll the dice - a la what PSU said.
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This is a nice improvement at the surface over the last 3 runs.
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Some things to like about this run, not a bad LP track either. Better outcome than the 12 & 18z dumpster fires
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Sure, some things are better leading in, some are worse. So much sporadic s/w energy to model properly. If the NAM is honing in the wrong place, it's not going be close to the right solution. Not saying its flat out wrong, but easy to get derailed.
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Definitely a better press of confluence in the north, but warmer antecedent airmass over us... purely a southern wave makes it tough to tie in much cold air.
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It is also 3mb stronger for our LP at h51 vs 18z (1004 on 0z), but vort isn't really noticably more intense. Heights are higher out in front over us.
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I am not one to PBP LR NAM, but it does have better confluence in the Canadian provinces thru h42, looks a bit juicier on the surface reflection (but thats relative to 18z which was a non-event).
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Will be interested to see the thermals on the EPS for indy members. They have decent resolution compared to members of GEFS/GEPS. The mean & more importantly the median ticked up at 12z after a not so great op run.
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Let’s see what curveballs the 0z suite has in store for us. Need that 0z run good we’ve had the last 2 nights
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Is that saying 1-3 western London to Hagerstown through Gettysburg? Would be a bust on the very low end for models in those parts.
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Why can't it just be right once... or close would also work too.
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Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot.
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It sure is, just 15 mins from me. Lots of good food and good beverages.
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The ole EE rule better not come to fruition. Let’s hope it’s as wrong as the NAM normally is at these lead times.
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As long as it’s wrong, let’s not forget for folks even close in to 95, there are several models that do have a lot better outcome than the Euro. Small pieces of the puzzle in evolution will have big impacts. Little bit of a model war could be breaking out with how these pieces are handled.
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Not so sure I think the evolution up top given what we had that first 60 or so hours is going to go that way. I didn’t hate how it started but then divergence from the other model camp came post h60.
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It’s only ever right when it’s by itself when it shows a bad solution. It doesn’t agree with the consensus of other models, but it isn’t what we wanted to see…
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How fitting for 0z to crush on all major models for 6z to be our good ole fashioned Charlie Brown and be warmer, dryer, and norther.
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Looking forward to an ICON warning shortly as well.
