DDweatherman

It's crazy that you're saying this, I JUST looked at it and said to myself "well, it has a progressive bias." Weenies sure think alike. I was bored in the downtime between model cycles..

There is a laundry list of things I’d do for a 20”er

Do you happen to have a low positions map?

It’s worth watching because there’s small intricacies in the evolution that have big impact. The euro actually was better with heights and SS but worse as the n/s outran the phasing a bit which hurt the system downstream for us.

In some ways it’s a better run with a worse result. Closer to giving us a coastal result but because of that kills the moderate idea from 6z as it dries up the n/s energy.

It really is so close to something much more substantial. The smallest differences have big time downstream implications.

Also have some climate models CFS - can’t forecast shit CanSIPS - CantSHIT

Have come up with nicknames for the models other than the euro GFS - good for shit UK- ukSHIT CMC - SHITcan ICON - iconic piece of shit any others?

Stay down there.

Historically, what does a storm like this tend to trend towards as we close in?

GGEM looks better than 0z looking at h5 thru 54.

Probably. Every place he used to live before Hanover got more snow than him yesterday... including Fairfax county.

Be nice if we could get the adjustments we used to get often around these parts.

Sadly true, but I don't think we can get to where we need to be. I'm ok with 2-4/3-5 so long as we don't get fringejobbed again.

SS getting held back/left behind a bit makes it hard to gain much neutral tilt to get that orientation to climb the way we want it. Maybe it'll pull it off anyway.

It's also more south with the low and h5 more strung out with a sloppier connection of streams. I'll hold judgement but don't love it thus far.

We could win on a moderate event this way if we are all setting expectations on a 3-5'er.

Phasing looks very sloppy this run compared to some of the prior runs (thru 60).

I wouldn't mind a 5-6 week stretch like what happened in 14 or kinda what happened in 15. Hitting with those borderline events which our areas maximize potential on.

I certainly don't mind those when we get more than 1 and that ends up being the winter. A second one in a week reminds me of last year when I had two warning level events up here. The 4" outside from yesterday looks great, wouldn't mind adding 4 more.

Exactly what I'm hoping for. Some degree of phasing that keeps the juiced system together as it moves towards the coast. If we can get the low to about the OBX that should push decent snow over most of the sub.

I think that's a way most of us can win vs relying on the coastal to climb the coast via a clean phase. A little interaction should keep the precip intact as this propagates eastward into a decent airmass.

Pic taken through the window this morning of some deep winter. Not the storm we hoped for up here, but about 4” total. Chilly this morning 18 degrees.

Sounds like a good plan. I prefer to grill my steaks year round vs skillet cooking inside. Also had a regular grill out there, but that was retired. May want another since I get a different steak experience from the blackstone. Come break in the grill season and check out the view this spring! Weather related, northern tier folks got caught in subsidence between the h7 fronto that ended up in central & NPA and that h85 near DC/NoVA. Kind of poor growth for this area, then a little love on the back end. Just about 4” going to take a few measurements in a bit.

Really? I was wondering about that. I had an orange rubber cover on the top itself. But that came off before Christmas too, and someone didn’t put it back on…