DDweatherman

To be fair, that is not an explanation for why. The why is because their algorithm and UL evolution resulted in those evolutions. Different resolution/upgrades are more a testament to higher accuracy (hopefully) and consistency in identifying minutia details and more meso-features.

18z Euro doesn't cover the whole storm, the Euro ens goes further (to 120 I believe for 18z)

Yeah when I was watching everything from h66 on, it was obvious this was a slower flow. That is a negative in certain ways for us, especially with a trailing piece having some influence it would appear.

Yep, good now. I fully agree, thats the feature I'm focusing on post hr 96.

You don't have anything attached to this post.

We rarely see lows trend west inland then go back SE to the coast/benchmark. I think someone said that earlier, this really could cut. Too many runs/solutions to come.

We'd much rather have this bowling ball and close off/tilt properly without counting on N stream wave influence/any sort of phasing. So I like that for sure.

Which is a way I could see the storm not coming as far NW with the sfc low despite a held back s/w evolution/differences in digging.

Definitely impressive with the closed h5 thru 96. Energy moved out in similar fashion in the NE but the overall s/w is held back slightly more again from 12z. Interesting to see if it could come further west than 12z. It won't unless it pulls and phases that energy in.

1000% agree with this post. Especially at these leads.

Sadly, what better do we have to do haha. Trust me, if the kids were home I'd rather that option. That being said, we'd like your prediction.

Any GFS predictions? Tempted to say it takes the low over HGR but the mid range old school SE bias on 18z could be in effect.

I suspect you wouldn't be laughing though. Nor would anyone north of VA.

What year was that? The first year we started looking at it?

I hope everyone who has been around these boards or the models for any decent amount of time knows even if this ends in triumph, there will almost certainly be drama and temporary heartbreak between now and that time.

Yea its crazy what a few hours can make you miss. I'd probably put my schedule as one of those bathroom breaks for a deuce = AmWx forums. You don't fit it into your day, but its one of those guarantees in life that makes visiting the forums a sure thing. Easy to pull up safari on the iPhone and go to the bookmarks. I actually think of this place as the opposite, which is what makes Vice's post/posts so annoying. If all of us have the time to get on here and enjoy our hobby, talk about the weather, obsess about the model runs, etc, then we probably have a pretty good life going for ourselves. It's never meant to be made personal, but some just do it. I for one know I'm doing just fine, whether I spend 2 or 4 hours on here in a day. If we got a big dog bearing down on us, this is where I am. Nothing like the excitement of sharing a good one come in with people we've talked with online for the last decade +

6 & 6.5" in Carroll Valley (wind is making any consistent # impossible)

Yea Chris over there has 3", and barely over 2" so far here in Carroll Valley.

Will try to post in both forums. I am a longtime (10+ year posted in the MidAtl threads), but will adjust this winter haha.

Probably going to be 4-8” for those folks HGR-Smithsburg-Gettysburg

Can confirm, almost 2” here in Carroll Valley.

Based on what I see from some of the radar obs, surface truth, and mesoanalysis, this one could actually give Some GFS totals once the banding gets going.

Can confirm pouring snow in Carroll Valley, definitely qualifies as S+. Visibility somewhere between 1/4 and 1/8th, closer to 1/8th.

It’s coming down hard near Carroll Valley now, borderline S+ driving up from Emmittsburg.

As do I, liking 3-5, but my orographics could put some 6” totals up here.