DDweatherman

Well it's certainly bringing optimism that we're tracking to hit the expectations, anything over 4" here and I'm gonna be content, 6+ and I'll be tickled. HRRR has been pretty generous in nowcasting today.

That's actually nice to see, especially if we can get the flow to get out of due south in the next few hrs.

Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061647Z - 062145Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly across south-central PA. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward. Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across central NC and southeast VA. These factors will result in an area of strong low-level frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD, and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the shortwave continues northeastward.

Definitely a good bit SE for the 13th event. I'd consider heading to Cleveland for that one if it really went down like that.

We’re getting hammered now, rates are solid, and vis is down to 1/4mi I’d say.

Honestly not too bad. We can do well with a low there. Just hope it skirts a bit more ENE than NE this afternoon.

I think they’re under pressure with the other 2 opening today for a few days.

If only we had the skiers part, count me in on the entertainment (maybe paintballs?), liberty is the only one of the 3 local spots not to be back open today we drove over to the base to see the situation, they’re getting close and have their big pile from the guns at the bottom, but looks like many of the trails are pretty bare. just from what I hear here, the snow crews at Whitetail and roundtop are better at readying the ship

Very nice drop in visibility and rates increasing here. the sound of the guns at ski liberty in the background.

I’m saying based on ops, no need to hope it changes back over, we know the drill here. Rate dependency. “Hopefully it's temporary, or we're all out of luck south of Harrisburg. “ we know it’s temporary is my point

All snow over here still, just got back from a coffee run, holding strong on temps.

Stop panicking. We’re fine. If expectations are in check, we’re tracking fine. Hrrr has 1” or less by 12pm.

14z HRRR is again pretty snowy up the 81/15 corridors through MDT.

Second that roads caved quickly.

Snowing nicely in Carroll valley 28

Because they show snowy solutions sometimes obviously… we like those

No mix here and snow coming down, 28 degrees. Right on the M/D line near Emmitsburg.

Snow underway here in Carroll Valley, 28 degrees. Not mixing at the moment

Still 27/21 here in Carroll Valley. Not too bad in the T/DP department

The NAM is the worst model for QPF output and evolution of any that exist, it only really can be reliable for thermals and MOS type guidance on temps

of course HRRR 12z after shutting people down for the day 24hrs

okay, now ya can post it haha temps are dropping fast over here. Down to 30/19

well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right

Yeah, don't you dare say that is what some people are thinking.

You will also do quite well at your 750 ft elevation. I'm about 860ft here in Carroll Valley.