18z RGEM & GGEM (yes it runs at 18z) both have the energy held back quite a bit more than their prior runs and unfortunately took that step back from 12z
Don't love the evolution and the reduced phasing/digging. Gives some credence to what the op just did. Not UKMET bad, but a step back. Expect we might see 2 camps.
Yeah, now its almost too far west. Started too far east, now that energy as you mentioned is pumping it up causing the flat heights out in front as well.
Weaker phasing on the GEFS 18z thru 84, got a feeling some of the members are holding that energy back as well. Going to be an east outcome for this run.
We're going with the mid range 18z SE bias of the GFS, blip run, toss that crap. Everything else is moving in the right direction.
Remain positive, Randy and PSU will bring this in at 0z, and the 18z GEFS/EPS.
We have to hope that run was an off run blip as some are saying, Ji's not wrong... lost all our progress if it's onto something. Its because Randy wasn't here for the PBP
Essentially unchanged so far on the GFS from 12z, pros and cons that about cancel each other out thus far (thru 42). N/S energy diving in quicker from what I see, S/s a bit more east.
Ridge axis in the west keeps going further west and building more each run of the ICON...not sure surface truth will be all that much better but we'll see. Trough is a wee bit deeper in the east but seems a bit positively tilted for my liking.