DDweatherman

Biggest GFS run of the season thus far beginning (if its decent, 0z will be tho

Now we just need the ICON to not be even close to the outcome for this to happen haha

I'm actually coming down that way towards Hanover this week to meet a partner for work...

I like it, beer came into the discussion and you were immediately at our beck and call.

Absolutely what made the euro turn around and be a pretty decent run in the later frames of 12z. Couldn't agree more.

Agreed, I'm looking for the SLP to develop early and SW, to get it to a more mature state by our lat. Based on what we've seen, if that kind of thing happens, the trough is probably sharp and it will take a more favorable track for us.

I'll cover the tab for you me and Bressi if this one hits us at the location of your choice as a token of my apology.

Okay mama map, stick around for 18z. I don't want to disappoint you and get put in timeout.

Amending my post to say maybe I'll sip mcgilicuddy's root beer on the rocks... lmao its just so good

I'd at worst like to see the GFS look like the NAM with the swath of snows from the arctic front.

Also not named Busch, may need to run to the store quickly to pick up a good IPA for the GFS (expecting it to disappoint since its the new dr.no, but just in case )

And the good part about that is the NAM is "closer" to its useful range when were analyzing frames 48-54 hours out vs 84. Of course its just the NAM and we'll give it the weight it deserves, but you like seeing what we saw.

The reality is just because a run doesn't do exactly what it should (these are computer simulations), doesn't mean one way or another its always going to be better/worse. The Euro just happened to make a turnaround later in its run because for the first time it brought our northern piece of energy on the backside more vertically oriented north to south. This made for a cleaner phase and tilted the axis of our trough more favorably. There was no question around h66-72 it was broader. NAM on the other hand, like you said looked favorable early on and the evolution was traditional for what you'd expect with a clean phase and a sharp trough.

Its not a guess after watching the model runs come out for the last 15 years. Euro looked worse at 66, and better by 84, its that simple. I've seen WAY WAY worse model analysis these past few storms by several folks.

h85 low closed on OBX at 84 is just a thing of beauty though I must say

I hope we have an opportunity to see an h5 progression like that when the NAM can run its whole run, because if we do, it would be a crusher

NAM h5 @ 84 is classic for us, finally have a run that shows an h5 that COULD get it done. Wish it was a varsity model, but then again...positive trends

Correct, if the NAM went out to 96, we would have had Jaws music

Okay, well now that you've seen the whole run, was I right?

It might have damn well been a hit. Before that, the UL snows are nice too.. (Wheres the DGEX when you need it)

I'd say its not a tad or slightly better, but rather MUCH or a lot better, miles ahead of 6z and a lot better than 12z. Nice tilt coming at 78

NAM is looking pretty solid thus far

For what we want to get out of the NAM, its a good step which is pretty obvious by like hr 36-42

No question about that. Looks kinda like the RGEM so far.

@stormtracker Interesting to see how the 18z NAM plays out, looks better than the last 2 runs so far.