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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    EPS has a bit more tilt like the op did at 18z, but h5 does close off at h90 over ROA.
  2. DDweatherman
    I agree there. The second northern piece seems to provide respite for the Euro vs a different way the GFS has been getting to its final product (which has less of the second piece)
  3. DDweatherman
    Randy chomping at the bit for the NAM to get going...
  4. DDweatherman
    I gotta stop by @Scraffand see what hes got in the hatch
  5. DDweatherman
    I am gonna stop by Friday I think. May need to reschedule for Thursday depending on the forecast Friday afternoon haha, but we'll see
  6. DDweatherman
    Its the piece up north of superior, more potent on 18z than it was on 12z.
  7. DDweatherman
    Usually this is when we want it to look like last run but go out 6 more hours.... and then its over bermuda
  8. DDweatherman
    The reason it does the pull depends on the type of tail feature like he mentioned. We also as you've mentioned want the northern piece diving in to have as meridional (N/S) alignment as possible.
  9. DDweatherman
    Well said, the jaws meter is an important scale that we might need to create going forward. Anyone want to get over into photoshop?
  10. DDweatherman
    @WinterWxLuvrEarlier, when you mentioned this storm changing shape. One of the things i'm maybe starting to take notice wrt to the Euro and NAM even earlier was the evolution and what it could mean for areas further south. Some folks in the other forums speaking of the Euro at 18z closing off h5 earlier and further SW. This can cause that evolution where depending on track of low and tilt on the trough out latitude wins and further north doesn't do as well.
  11. DDweatherman
  12. DDweatherman
    This was also a great trend for our latitude, slower overall helped with this
  13. DDweatherman
    You definitely want the euro doing what it just did at 18z. A noise run is just what we needed. A hold from our best solution is great headed into the 0z suite.
  14. DDweatherman
    This one has some looks on the recent model runs that are just a few hours sooner on timing and minor changes to bring a big event to a lot more people than current runs are showing. The ingredients and recipe to win is getting clearer.
  15. DDweatherman
    I consider it a hold from the 18z euro which is nice because it shows a 2-4" for basically everyone and is one of the furthest west with the coastal. Holds out hope we could have jaws music at 0z.
  16. DDweatherman
    If it comes in quicker and or more potent, thats not bad in this case. We need stuff to help pump heights out in front. If we could alleviate a lot of the "tail" like the 18z NAM did, that would be helpful too.
  17. DDweatherman
    That piece is literally one of the best features we've seen. Usually those screw us, but it helps coming in on the backside to tilt this a bit and on the 18z, its more potent than last run.
  18. DDweatherman
    not even baccarat can you do that...
  19. DDweatherman
    hr84 is more positively tilted, but its more dug in and the northern piece diving in is stronger. Not a huge difference from 12z.
  20. DDweatherman
    The backside piece from the NW is what brought the 12z run back for us. The tail is a bit more elongated, but the whole evolution was a bit west and slightly slower.
  21. DDweatherman
    The positive tilt on some models has been an issue (why the 18z GEFS was SE), because of the lower heights out front of the system.
  22. DDweatherman
    Hour 60, heights lower but its really just a bit slower. The ss is a bit west but the N/s also dives in a bit west. Next few frames are important. Thought hr 72 above on TT doesn't look great just going off that image.
  23. DDweatherman
    I would but doing dinner with the kids right now.
  24. DDweatherman
    Most important 18z euro run of its existence thus far
  25. DDweatherman
    @psuhoffmancan you PM me it just in case I don’t have the most current
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