DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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We love when it comes from the S/SW like a total wall. Nothing better, complete mass of yellows and oranges. Always has a chance to overperform too.
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We're in that boredom between the dump of last weeks 2 events, didn't last too long but still.
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Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so.
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I'm in a pretty good spot, but you're in a REALLY good spot for this one it appears. Lots of models showing 12-20" numbers over your head.
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Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east.
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Yea its basically in line with the GFS on 12z, but 0z was a perfect pass. As expected given the outcome we saw on the 2 runs. if we knew the GFS/Euro was as far west as this is going to go, we'd be in an even better spot. But a small east shift and its big time.
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Agree that US15 west looks pretty consistent to be in the big hit zone. But like EJ just said, only 50 miles east on the shift and its a major hit bay and west with those 12-24" totals over the NW burbs.
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Euro looks like the GFS yet again, slightly east in its evolution overall at h5 and low track. Ends up going right up the bay over Baltimore. The individual frames and maps I'll leave to the main folks.
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Colder airmass and 850's flowing in prior to the storm however vs 0z.
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Edit to say By 96 its definitely about 100 miles NW with the wave & associated LP center, high in a slightly better spot with similar heights over the NE from 0z. Still pos tilted however
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Euro at 72 h5 is slower than 0z and a bit deeper with our s/w over KS on the 12z. However, the NE energy from the low bombing is a good bit SW of last run.
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I’m just thinking big picture, but agree the bleeding has stopped finally it appears.
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People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great.
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Beautiful sprawling banana (ravensrule stay away dawg)
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Potentially a bit further east downstream, but almost identical placement at h90 on the h5 low and where it closes off. Heights a bit lower in the west initially on the Euro.
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I can't answer to the first part, but because of higher resolution, the permutations these models identify and go in depth on have a greater downstream influence sooner in the run because of their resolution. Obviously, if that happens based on a feature 60 hours into a run, the downstream impact on big picture evolution is further magnified versus a run at lower res.
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To be fair, that is not an explanation for why. The why is because their algorithm and UL evolution resulted in those evolutions. Different resolution/upgrades are more a testament to higher accuracy (hopefully) and consistency in identifying minutia details and more meso-features.
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18z Euro doesn't cover the whole storm, the Euro ens goes further (to 120 I believe for 18z)
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Yeah when I was watching everything from h66 on, it was obvious this was a slower flow. That is a negative in certain ways for us, especially with a trailing piece having some influence it would appear.
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Yep, good now. I fully agree, thats the feature I'm focusing on post hr 96.
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You don't have anything attached to this post.
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We rarely see lows trend west inland then go back SE to the coast/benchmark. I think someone said that earlier, this really could cut. Too many runs/solutions to come.
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We'd much rather have this bowling ball and close off/tilt properly without counting on N stream wave influence/any sort of phasing. So I like that for sure.
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Which is a way I could see the storm not coming as far NW with the sfc low despite a held back s/w evolution/differences in digging.
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Definitely impressive with the closed h5 thru 96. Energy moved out in similar fashion in the NE but the overall s/w is held back slightly more again from 12z. Interesting to see if it could come further west than 12z. It won't unless it pulls and phases that energy in.
