DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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We should be 12-15:1 if we're being honest. Pretty decent snow growth as modeled on soundings. But of course, no guarantees.
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Canaan isn't under a watch or anything? Are they just a bit too far east to cash in on the 6-10" totals with this one? What resorts are over there, not as familiar with the WV options.
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Correct, between .25-.3. Was an uptick from 0z
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They do both live in Leesburg, don't count him out. I love the "you seem angry a bit"
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Lol don't compare me to Maestro. Its sad that every model gives me 3" and I have to assume I'm getting 1-2 if we're lucky.
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Yeah I guess no attention was paid to the last couple of suites that have taken their coastal piece away. We're almost better off with some of the 12z runs that just bring in a slug of precip through much like WAA.
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Chris, now you and I both know if we’re going to get 3 inches we might as well get an inch an hour for three hours to make it fun. The NAM is after all 3 to 4 inches for quite a few people, with the best numbers being the favored Northwest folks like old times.
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Agreed, one of the best runs this far for my neck. Also increased totals across the board from 0z for basically the whole sub.
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We love having the JV models (a la RGEM on our side), usually the ICON. The king aka GFS will be sure to give a better idea momentarily.
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Is there something wrong with the forum? Rgem spreads 4-6 from our forum up 95 and not a peep here.
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Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy.
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I'm just hoping we got the S/E trend suite out of the way to actually move a storm/evolution type that models almost always have historically brought northwest.
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That's for sure. Right about now is when the last storm started to even enter as a possibility for being a decent snow maker.
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With this storm I'm more optimistic that should happen being a N/S system. Good to see the consolidated low idea vs miller b jumping idea. Now I'd just like typical climo and trends to occur. Doesn't look like a shutout this time even on the south runs so that's good.
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GFS is going to be south judging by sfc progs at 60, and also h5 looking much more pos tilted vs 6z. Suspect we'll see the max amounts lining up with yesterdays totals.
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More likely to see this storm (N/S based) trend north and west than a SS system in a Nina, so there is that.
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This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event.
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Agreed, the ICON is pretty ideal and the 6z GFS would do. ICON was a great run just a few minutes ago, but can the GFS follow suit. Definitely 2 ways to fail, Miller B screw job or RGEMesque de-amped progressive system.
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Textbook for a N/S system and that tilt at our lat.
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The ICON might be the new high water mark for this storm thus far on that 12z run. Waiting for the accumulated precip/corresponding snow maps to update. Pretty textbook warning+ level event 81 to 95 and up the coast. Great low track
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My biggest concern with this storm for sure, northern stream driven system in a Nina.
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Saw that! I think more people need to be talking about the natural disaster thats basically unfolded on I 95 from DC to Fredericksburg. Some people have now been stranded 20 straight hours and not moved. Cars abandoned, disabled vehicles everywhere, people trying to conserve gas in 20 degree temperatures. 50 miles of the highway closed in both directions, with the northbound side making no progress. Road completely refroze and turned to a sheet of ice. Its commutageddon all over but maybe worse in some cases.
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He's not wrong, its better. GFS was technically south last run, but more or less was a non-event.
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I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past.
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Lighter amounts on both vs 12z, but overall solid support for an area wide advisory level event. 18z RGEM and GEFS looked good too.
