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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I think for #2 you mean even further west? 8 LF's vs 4.
  2. DDweatherman
    Usually when they RI this quickly pressure and winds aren't 100% aligned with what we see in classic "all-timers" with regards to intensity. Definitely could see this getting sub 920 or even 915 if even 25% of the rate of RI continued for another few hours. No signs of an ERC yet and makes sense since this is relatively early in its lifecycle and just became a tight core overnight last night. Can't rule out a record low pressure for this part of the ATL.
  3. DDweatherman
    Just for everyones records who doesn't have time to check, lowest pressure in the Atlantic is Wilma @ 882mb (2005) and for sustained winds we had Allen @ 190mph (1980). Pressures in the southern gulf and central Caribbean historically have a lower mean/average pressure, hence why all the lowest #'s have come there (Wilma, Rita, Mitch, Gilbert) Edit to add that many which have gotten to cat 5 E & NE of the islands seem to be 910's range (Irma, Maria, Isabel, etc.)
  4. DDweatherman
    Any guesses on where this one tops off folks? I'm thinking 175mph if I had to guess.
  5. DDweatherman
    24 hour forecast now has Lee getting up to 165mph as it moves WNW.
  6. DDweatherman
    Up to a 130mph Cat 4 as of 5PM ET.
  7. DDweatherman
    I actually think based on T estimates and that wrapped ring, 160mph may be conservative for what Jova is doing right now, might be a 175mph storm
  8. DDweatherman
    NHC actually has this getting to 175mph in the 12h forecast frame, incredible.
  9. DDweatherman
    Valdosta looks to be a test to see what these winds are like in a more concentrated population center.
  10. DDweatherman
    Link by chance to take a look?
  11. DDweatherman
    And they’re intense, 125-130mph it looks like. Valdosta looks to catch a piece of this NW eye wall on the current trajectory.
  12. DDweatherman
    Keaton Beach area looks to be near ground zero for the western eye wall.
  13. DDweatherman
    Radar imagery now is more textbook of a potent ring around the eye wall characteristic of the higher end majors. Should expect to see influence from the entrance region of the jet as it nears the coastline along with some frictional effects to tighten this small core even further
  14. DDweatherman
    Up in the big bend, shelf and water depths are relatively shallow compared to the rest of the gulf. If this was moving slow, it’d churn up a good bit of the OHP. In this case, not as much with the storms forward speed.
  15. DDweatherman
    Rate looks like 2-3mb/hr of deepening currently.
  16. DDweatherman
    Barring a small miracle looks like this thing will make cat 4 tonight. She’s blowing up fast right now.
  17. DDweatherman
    Blame my buddy who sent me 06z when I'm mobile on a job site you're correct. Didn't realize 6z was that far left. 933mb at LF.
  18. DDweatherman
    12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it.
  19. DDweatherman
    Pretty far north here, but it’s also the COAMPS. Opposite of the direction the others have moved
  20. DDweatherman
    Had a bunch of those here this evening
  21. DDweatherman
    That Westminster damage is textbook straight line wind/downburst.
  22. DDweatherman
    Weird but still getting CG strikes up here every couple mins well behind the storm. Impressive and certainly unusual.
  23. DDweatherman
    That damage in Westminster is indicative of a microburst/downburst type of straight line damage.
  24. DDweatherman
    There are roads closed all over MD, Westminster (140,27,97) & I-83
  25. DDweatherman
    The main event for the Balt folks is going to be the piece moving ENE out of Germantown as opposed to what looked like it would be the bow dropping SE
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