DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Doesn’t mean the outcome is gonna be determined. What matters is the capture and trailing energy thru 78-84.
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The axis and orientation of h5 on GFS is the best since about 4-5 runs ago. South and pos tilted thru 66
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Agreed Steve, can you email me a link to tonight’s zoom?
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Yeah agreed, some BIG hits.
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Yea not a bad storm. Don't fuse it with 1/7/96. Good event for our locales though. Almost was like the 2/10/10 version follow up to 2/5-6.
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Second that part haha, I love the Middletown/Myersville area, but you really aren't that far from some "commerce" in Sabillasville area lol. Waynesboro has quite a bit and is <20 mins, HGR 25 mins. Also cheaper to live up outside in the border areas vs M/M
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Where can we pull Camp David nowadays (used to be RSP)? and Site R?
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We're at about 96 hours out from onset, somewhat more clarity today but the money zone is w of 15 to the 81 folks with MRB, OKV looking like the local jackpot zone. Anyone west of rt/97 looks solid for a 6" snowfall at this juncture I'd say from the thump.
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Yup, Sabillasville/Blue Ridge Summit/Cascade are all at like what, 1000 feet? And I can say living up here a few months, they get more than Waynesboro and some of the surrounding spots.
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We love when it comes from the S/SW like a total wall. Nothing better, complete mass of yellows and oranges. Always has a chance to overperform too.
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We're in that boredom between the dump of last weeks 2 events, didn't last too long but still.
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Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so.
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I'm in a pretty good spot, but you're in a REALLY good spot for this one it appears. Lots of models showing 12-20" numbers over your head.
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Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east.
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Yea its basically in line with the GFS on 12z, but 0z was a perfect pass. As expected given the outcome we saw on the 2 runs. if we knew the GFS/Euro was as far west as this is going to go, we'd be in an even better spot. But a small east shift and its big time.
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Agree that US15 west looks pretty consistent to be in the big hit zone. But like EJ just said, only 50 miles east on the shift and its a major hit bay and west with those 12-24" totals over the NW burbs.
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Euro looks like the GFS yet again, slightly east in its evolution overall at h5 and low track. Ends up going right up the bay over Baltimore. The individual frames and maps I'll leave to the main folks.
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Colder airmass and 850's flowing in prior to the storm however vs 0z.
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Edit to say By 96 its definitely about 100 miles NW with the wave & associated LP center, high in a slightly better spot with similar heights over the NE from 0z. Still pos tilted however
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Euro at 72 h5 is slower than 0z and a bit deeper with our s/w over KS on the 12z. However, the NE energy from the low bombing is a good bit SW of last run.
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I’m just thinking big picture, but agree the bleeding has stopped finally it appears.
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People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great.
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Beautiful sprawling banana (ravensrule stay away dawg)
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Potentially a bit further east downstream, but almost identical placement at h90 on the h5 low and where it closes off. Heights a bit lower in the west initially on the Euro.
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I can't answer to the first part, but because of higher resolution, the permutations these models identify and go in depth on have a greater downstream influence sooner in the run because of their resolution. Obviously, if that happens based on a feature 60 hours into a run, the downstream impact on big picture evolution is further magnified versus a run at lower res.
