Typhoon Tip

NAM has a NW bias at this range, too.

I wouldn't necessarily blame decreasing b-c on climate change this late in the season - assuming that's what you meant there. We're losing gradients via seasonal forcing at this time of year pretty fast, anyway, while CC moves much much slow than the forcing of any single transition season. It's almost impossible parse out the contribution down to a discrete level of either. But you know the former statement is right - The heights being modestly in positive anomaly across the deep S/SE, that is more of a larger scale limitation. It's physically preventing 'as much' N/S amplitude expression, because height falls sandwiched in between that and the NAO blocking becomes a compressed field - which speeds up the flow which stretches things W/E ... Just call it destructive interference. If this latter limitation somehow alleviates, that trough diving through the Lakes has a chance to slow down while passing under Long Island and that would be interesting

I actually don't have problem with it. Blues have odd behaviors - difficult to pin point that sort of thing. It's probably more of an homage to general possibility ...less 'where' exactly that happens. In fact, I can imagine the cackles and ridicule over the NAM this and that ... all the while missing that point. We're still technically reeling off that pretty crazy late season -EPO last week. It's modulated(ing) positive, but the loading takes time to extinguish - at this time of year, these indexes sometimes reflect more so in the mid level thermal complexion. If we look at that 850s mb, it doens't appear like there's warm problem to this thing being a kind of red flag - Although heh... anyone that thinks this week's been warm at the surface is probably trying to sell snow to Eskimos. I'm just saying ... that's why spring blue bombs happen.

It's close ( all hating and despising aside...) re April 3rd-ish Henry's chart above is remarkably consistent, as well ..shared with only irrelevant differences between the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble means. In all --> a deep coupled response to that western limb -NAO you see over the D. Straight, should evolve nearby our lat/lon - that is the teleconnector incarnate. That's just a 101 interpretation that cannot really be argued. The problems with it are obviously A... the lateness and climate but excusing that obviousness for moment ( we've have blizzards in early April before, anyway - ) ...the heights in the west and how they transiently balance against the heights between the GOM and off the SE U.S. coast, are preventative. The GEFs mean for dailies is actually a very good fit on the 06z, taking a strong primary up the ST Seaway to about Watertown NY ..then, forcing a secondary E of PWM ... because it compromises the -NAO forcing a storm S, while also negotiating those heigher heights underneath/foundation of all that scaffolding down in the deep S/SE. It can change... a little more western ridging would help. But, I also suspect the entire 35N band around the entire hemisphere/planet on both sides of the Equator, being some 3 to 7 dm higher than they were 50 years ago ... would continue to impose resistance even if those mid latitude features became better aligned. The flow would compress, not "yield" in that sense... and compression speeds up the flow - it's basically just that the lower latitudes are destructively interfering. Complex... For now, we need the Pac --> N/A flow structure not be going into a -PNA mode, while these other inhibitors are going on, before we can be more confident in a finale bomb. I will say though that the 2nd week of April, the seasonal 'flash' is now showing up on the guidance across the board. It's probable any 1st week system would be the season's mortality gasp in the models.

PNA is falling

well okay, but it feels below normal and it is below normal just the same.

and the hits just keep on comin' https://phys.org/news/2024-03-climate-australia-soil-emit-global.html

yeah, I don't offer criticisms, because I do not engage in the 'Game Of Seasonal Throwns' I only offer some thoughts ...circa mid Sep to mid Novies to others. Take it or leave it. Like I was saying in the La Nina thread the other day... I mentioned this the last 3 autumns to the general pop. I believe pretty strongly that the usefulness of the ENSO historic climate/inference method as primary in the construction of seasonal outlooks, is a mistake now. This is not a criticism of any particularly individual - because I am not sure who said what, or employed how much of it. I don't read these discussions, frankly. If someone reference something, I may read an excerpt amount.. but that's hardly a fair intake. However, seeing close to 500 -page El Nino threads ... mmm, sort of lends itself. I think there must be people that do lean on ENSO. I also believe that doing so was more useful prior to the naughts of 2000. It's like if there were a hypothetical 'usefulness graph,' it would be sloping downward. It's something I begin posting about over 15 years ago... probably prior to Eastern's collapse. I specifically recall supposition way, way back then ... writing words to the affect of, 'If the world around the tropics is heating up, the tropics are no longer able to force the same way' Usually when doing so, the sentiment was met with crickets. We're not exactly proffering scientific posits to a formal conference audience in this social media engagement, are we. LOL. Evidence is leaning toward vindication of those earlier insights. The incidences of uncoupling, transient lengths of time, notwithstanding, ...it's all part of that. Plus, the scalar impacts of these El Nino and La Ninas over the last 15 years have been less acute in statistics. anyway

well said

https://phys.org/news/2024-03-antarctic-sea-ice-historic-lows.html

Agree this overall sentiment. ...altho, I don't engage in the winter stuff in 'late summer' ( ha ) but yeah. By this time? I really start checking out every year around Feb 20th, actually - by that date we're already 10 days post the end of the solar nadir and into the solar transition season. One could argue that is really the first zygote of spring... Not March 1. Not March 21st. February 10, because that is the celestial mechanics-dictated date whence the hemisphere solar irradiance watts/sqr-m, inflects toward positive more steeply. The opposite is true on November 9th, whence the beginning of the solar minimum/bottom out takes place. That's why I like the rare front-loaded winter. Takes advantage of the igloo day-light when the snows are falling. Real gelid, not that transient stuff you have to think about it while its snowing; on Feb 20 seasonal change is screwing with the splendor of it all. The models might even be tapping the 60 deg butt cervix the next week. Obviously there is a significant climate lag every year ( or at least used to be. Ha ). It takes time for the whole planetary system to respond to brightening(dimming) at either end. That's why I say I merely "start" to check out. lol. The total check-out process take about 2 to 3 weeks. By the 2nd week of March, I'm getting pretty indifferent ... Don't hate the late snow rareness'. Don't love 'em. Post the equinox? I'm entering the spectrum of annoyed. I hate this weather right now. There is almost nothing redeeming about this. And frankly ...if it snowed 6" of blue toilet cake snow on Friday, there is 0 d-drip value to that. I realize others don't share in this sentiment but ... there are some of us that do.

06z GEFs mean came back a little ... Yesterday's guidance may have been the typical mid range teaser interval... I'll give it this 12z. This is probably too tedious for the level of interest at this point... but it almost appears to me like the whole modeled hemisphere has two behaviors taking place at the same time. The shortening of the spring wave lengths is attempting to happen at the same time the modeled atmosphere is still accelerating in the mid range. Troughs are sharper ... some even closing/'bowlers' yet ... the models are speeding them up from D7 --> D4. Friday's doing what they were doing all year ( and previous year's worth of seasons for that matter, too - ) and that is to speed up the late mid range as it gets nearer. This speeding up takes something away from the N-S range of amplitude - I'm pretty sure this is why-for the attenuation thing, in general. Either the system in question is weaker, or it just is faster so it's impact is weaker - either way. Very consistent modeling error.

...The only problem is the previous 20 consecutive days were above normal, a lot of which were large. The whole month is still +5.7 This is essentially the same at HFD.

In a relative sense this is an interesting achievement. I haven't seen 5 consecutive days of negative departures in a long time ORH 21 34 23 29 -7 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 20.4 37 280 M M 1 54 290 22 37 21 29 -7 36 0 0.01 T M 8.2 20 290 M M 5 29 300 23 35 28 32 -4 33 0 1.99 0.0 M 12.8 28 330 M M 10 126 43 320 24 37 21 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.6 25 330 M M 1 41 330 25 42 26 34 -3 31 0 0.00 0.0 M 12.6 20 60 M M 0 32 30

looks like the GFS is comin' on back to reality

Let's pray NWS is right

yeah I know. I was just Joshin'

yeah... 2018+ 6 more year's worth of what's clearly a whiplash CC surge = glop bombs falling off of tree limbs

oh... heh. I'm like, "I don't something -" or -

'idv' ?

Not sure of the significance when weighting into this particular model conflict today, but the Euro was also 'whiffy' with the last event and didn't conceded until it was 3 or 4 days out - fwiw

All these storms in spring probably bear some likeness to one another ... but a while ago I posted a juxtaposition of the 500 mb April 1997 library/NCEP chart against the 500 mb of this morning's GFS operational just for shits and giggles - there's definitely some similarity there, though

I haven't been altogether blown away by the west Pac warm pool stuff, either. I've sort of let that conversation go as just a passive observer. I am not sure why warmth there has more meaning than warmth in the PDO ... or AMO or the ENSO... The oceans are markedly warm, everywhere, above climo - save for pockets here and there that are proven more transient. Ex, the La Nina 'cool' phases are warmer than the La Nina cool phase baselines from 100 years ago. The El Ninos are also warmer relative to modern vs older climate generations. This has to be true, because ... it cannot be logically true when utilizing a moving/adjusted climate baseline to then have the same base temperature at either end. Crude example, say a modest cool ENSO may even be similar to a modest warm ENSO 150 years ago... The wholesale planet warms together is what this looks more like... so how we aver (much less really convincingly guess) one area as being so much forcing over others is sort of dubious to me.

It never did ... ... and the perp guilty of trying to woo over the audience like they're that cutting edge objective intellectual stew at a Trump rally, most likely gets a kick out of the attempt - folks should just ignore it.

I was jokin' around with Scott an hour ago but that April 3 system's also got some remarkable continuity on the models, too. fir f' sake if we coulda got this kind of look once in the last 7 year's worth of winters -