Typhoon Tip

It does .. that's historic 'looking' relative to calendar. November witch's can be vicious but you don't see those features at this time of year to frequently ... ( the core of that sucker's under 522 dm pasing over 55 F SSTs, and the later delta-T is 16 C between SE of Cape Cod and Worcester.. The thickness ( funny you mentioned 12/05) is right at the packing limit. Which means, upright elevated frontal plains and very proficiently UVM under the best Q-G forcing, ... the surface low well. anyway. But the "attention" part you mention is a bit heightened for me because this thing has a loud tele signal and we discussed this three days ago, that we needed to start looking for systems to emerge in this time frame - well... here we are. It's not as easily dismissed.

In fact, that storm leaves something on the field given the mid level vortex - geezus. I would submit the fact that the model doesn't really have the S/stream system to really collapse the N/stream into ...is why that low - albeit amazing - doesn't max. The mid level d(h) with that much DPVA should be something deeper at the surface.

That's a subsume scenario .. 1978 ... both storms in the Lakes and out here along the SNE coast were SPV fragments that were bumped S by modulation at high latitudes, while some form of weak interloper s/stream impulse timed well. "pretty unlikely" is overstating imho ... but, you are right that among the ways to get to upper tier systems, it's a bit of a delicate stream interaction so by definition is rarer. Again, I'm not opposed to something notable in that time frame. I'm also noting that heights draping Florida have fallen to 582 dm or less, prior to the subsume taking place over top. That tells me the meridional character of the flow may allow this to slow down .. preserving wave mechanics.

The mid month H.A signal is alive and well though -

It's worth it to mention it because when in the weeds of any crisis for that matter, the general human tendency toward histrionic reactionary thinking is primordially driven - in other words, as the individual integrates the society, et al, said society cannot help but react first, then, dust off. Unfortunately, that doesn't lend to seeing the field above the weeds, which is a perspective that happens later, but is one that is needed now. The reality is, there are technologies that can make all these environmental toxicity dilemmas, Earth, Air and Sea a thing of the past. That's incontrovertible ... yet, excuses and rationalism start churning out of the "inability-to-acceptance" engine. And that spin-machine has the advantage in this sorely needed enlightenment battle - they are anchored in the status quo. If people from all walks and ranks of society could be made aware that they really don't have to sacrifice ( that much ...perhaps a little at first) of their current way of life in order for all to achieve the quasi utopic/harmonious coexistence with natural states, ... but they are being blocked from seeing that. It's fascinating "soft conspiracy," and how it is evasively dodging that awareness from even getting a toe-hold. And this soft conspiracy I call it, .. basically when common interests works toward a convergent goal, more so than anything paranoid or orchestrated by fine cigar smoke strata over top posh leathery dens of the cabal, they masterfully make the alternatives scary. You know where the real fear is? The real fear is the owners of big industry ...and next of economic kin peering down the ladder. It's their fear. They fear their gravy boats being emptied by a necessary redress in the the ways and means of a society they've also relied upon ignorance and assumption to exploit. That which they've luxuriously presided over, no longer favors the pot-liquor they'll need to make their gravy. They know that. We really are in some way living the end days of that cinema .. where the opulence realizes it's over, or denies that it must be. That's the infuriating aspect. From A G W, to plastic-ocean paradigms, and blah blah blah ... these are all directly a result of the Industrial Revolution and profligate blithe, all geared together by an ambitions everyone bought into spanning generations. Conned into thinking they, too, could win that American dream... And these are the societies that led the way when the IR occurred; they immediately channeled economic ambition, nothing else. It's not so funny; the proportions are essentially correct. Closed combustion engines and/or the panoply of advancing chemistry ensued zero-gap conclusion: "we are going to make a fortune." It wasn't, we are going to advance medicine in ways that extend human life so long and ubiquitously, we don't need to overpopulate. It wasn't ambitions in science in general, ...discovery truths. You know, I've over heard it expressed that organized religion got in the way of the advancing evolution of society ... I'd say money is just as powerful of a God. Which all that of course took place with zero checks-and-balances - can't have those getting in the way of the mighty dollar. Formulation/projection of ethics in the exploitation of natural resources ( necessary to power the Industrial Revolution ) along the way? That had zero chance of taking place once IR tapped into money-reward-circuitry. I don't even know if this is cynicism toward humanity, either. Honestly, you almost give the page turner generation a pass, because countless generations suffered and died young and tragically through the millennia. Sensing the advantages of the IR, from every day access to basic provisions, to fending off diseases ... and just the gestalt for favoring outlooks in general: it was almost avenging the ghosts of those that never had those advantages. So we leaped, and the party went nuts! These ramification were yet to come, yet be discovered. All there was at the time was improving survival odds. Nature is like that ... it doesn't invent things for the sake of invention, such that we do among our many charms. Nature only emerges out of necessity. What part of the natural setting and Darwinism ever required asking if eating a turkey sandwich when one is starving now, might lead to a some calamity in a year. These so called checks-and-balances, they were always administered by the limitations of the ecology. We come along with these powers of ingenuity, and have really outpaced those limitations. But that's not going to last forever. And once the detrimental discoveries were evidenced and continue to do so, to persist along said detrimental course, I don't know what you call that - "collective sociopathy?" It's both.. There are captains of industry that are completely consumed in self and this mantra that they'll be dead in 100 years so it won't matter - they presently are the ballast of "string puller" movers and shakers, too. They could not be more self-centered and clearly failing baser moral culpability. Yet, because they operate within the confines of the societal norm to do so, they are not perceived that way? That's partial in being the weeds. Then there are those that just don't know any better, because the cause-and-effect of the A in the A G W ...is just too untenable to their comprehension, so it is easier to just rely upon traditional nationalism, toe-the line and listen to the marketing that always gave comfort - that same social force that is put on the captain's cheerleaders and lobbyists, and special interests in general. For the rest of us, we just watch the hands on the Doomsday clock tick closer to midnight, powerless to stop it. Now that humanity is evolved technologically enough ... many of that profligate ways and means used to power the industrial-complex ...and sate the greed-economic engine that generations spanning a time in history got to benefit and live like kings and queens, are no longer necessary. Industry can be motivated by 'green' tech, to the extent that any reliance whatsoever upon the old fossil-fuel model can be so minor that the natural background geological/biological processes of this planet can absorb and make negligible. Yet, we won't do it, or, if we are, that adaptation is most likely too slow. Nope, sate greed first or die - that's the epitaph of Humanity should this "non-sustainability" dictate policy.

Sometimes ... the flow relaxes a bit with fresh cold still in place, and then the S/Ws embedded ( not too dissimilar to this chart you provided actually ..) can go on to generate slower moving deeper events because less of their own mechanics are getting absorbed by compression/velocity...yadda yadda. I was dancing around with the same idea on the 00z run, too.. That one sort of has 'the look' of one lead deep zipper, then a follow-up slower evolving deal.

Yeah, the bigger signal still looms for mid month ... Hard to say if that's this Euro solution as an early albeit gross detection of that potential.

it's a tedious nerdiness but I'm always curious when that first pond edge ice forms ...None as of this morning leaving town at dawn, but that was our third morning 25 to 28 F, so despite climbing to the upper 40s or lower 50s by day, with the low sun angles and the longer nights ... I could see us start rimming the ponds soon.

If there is one, keep in mind that there is a coherent time-lag in the statistical correlation. Any subsequent forcing on the Arctic Oscillation lags by as much as 20 to 30 days. Few know this, or, demonstrate very readily via turns of phrase and deliveries of prose where they've beautifully ( otherwise ) fused the sudden stratospheric warming sciences into their speculative, and I'm like " ...you do realize the effects of SSW are outside your forecast range, right?." There is a particularity that needs to be observed, else ... whatever is being observed is more likely to fail coherent forcing on the AO outside of coincident index numerology. The warm plume has to propagate downward in time ( i.e., 'downwelling' ). In every case of SSW graphical layout back to 1979, this downward motion appears to 'spiral' away from a central axial point that begins near the axis of PV rotation, at a very high beginning SIGMA level - typically between 5 and 30 hPa. As it descends, it will first appear to weaken, before the next node comes in warmer, then fades slightly ... then warmer, each node gaining x-coordinate distance upon each emergence. That growth in the x-coordinate is a representation of gaining distance from the axis of rotation. Notice the ending node is almost faded/indistinquishable in anomaly relative to the surrounding features of the ambient field ( nearing 150 hPa SIGMA) there bottom right along the nodal curve. That is tropopausal mechanical absorption/ increasing stabilization and suppression of the depths ensues, and that weakens the PV ... "pancaking" and blocking in the mid and upper troposphere ignites. This entire translation of events, as you can see took ~ from Jan 15th to the end of February ... and we can see in this case a very clear and coherent AO correlation taking place: 2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185 0.322 0.494 0.549 -0.011 0.154 -0.461 0.263 2.029 1.475 ... Bold is March. SSW don't really value-add like the popular mantra of the day has it in their mind(s) and bandy about. If one did take place in the last week of this month... We may be hearing about an AO response some time after Christmas.. which is fine. But, I also offer that this particular year we may not have much trouble with AO being negative, so it could be lost in the din of a -AO complexion hemisphere anyway.

The signal at mid month is legit. The Euro run itself obviously is not - not yet anyway. But, the fact that there is something situated out there in that particular spacial-temporal range is what's paramount there, and could very well be the initial distantly distorted vision in models. A few individual GFS members are enhancing the N flow/loading into mid latitudes along with a deep nadir in the heights nearing mid month, but from this range that can mean everything from a dry albeit deep cold wave ...to perhaps including a pattern entry event. The concepts/previous discussion are still in play. Overnight AO wow!

There's a much louder signal nearing the 15th of the month coming out of the American cluster for some form of larger scale index-related instability/correction event across the mid latitude of the continent... The PNA is heading into a mode reversal, while the on-going -EPO resists change ( and is in fact is anchor through the WPO! ), is an implication for a highly sloped western Canadia flow nearing the mid month time frame - This is the ensemble derived teleconnectors. The operational guidance may or may not reflect that at this time or a given run. Be that as it may this is a multi agency, multiple run signal. CDC is in fact a screaming winter signal for North America and has been been since mid last week landing on the ides of the month; this last evenings was the most spectacular, with/when wpo-epo arc are in sync signals a whopper AB phase of the Pac circulation, which is a very high correlation to/for deep layer N conveyor and cold loading into N. America. The CPC rendition of the PNA is not quite as robust ...however, shows a tightly clustered mean rising from -2 SD to neutral - certainly qualifies a mode change in the positive direction. I'd suggest be looking out for something a bit more than a needle threader ... I even see signs that the local HC is "deflated" a bit then with ambient heights receded by 4 to 6 dm from the western Gulf to Bermuda after the 10th in some ensemble... that's a table set in my estimating for back off the larger toward smaller scale mechanical interference by way of reducing some of the velocity surplus. Time will tell on that... It's an exciting November folks. We haven't seen one of these in a while... No guarantee that we will get our cinema, no, but... we have 'good problems' as storm enthusiasts for the time being.

Yeah..that's exactly where I was going with the previous, " As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered "... blah blah... Well, it's progress. Hey, did you apply/test your algorithm during that WCB wind event the other day? I was curious how that thing would work in a better mixed quasi barotropic air mass -

This is true ... I mean, not that I was questioning you or anything, just offering that I read the PDF prior to the release and that was clearly stated, that - perhaps beyond the one metric you mentioned - the model was supposed to at least 'not be worse' - which obviously means breaking even. It's interesting operational philosophy there in that ... why? I suspect it's 'platform' -related? As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered. Spit-ballin' there.

Yeah, I believe you and I discussed this a bit over a month ago regarding the "thermal residence/memory" - this year seemed to smack of some of that if you recall, in that there was a late 'time-relative' occurrence of the 2019 numbers slipping lower than 2012 post the annual nadir. It's always nice when we see other sources corroborating our own observations.

Pretty solid NJ-model cyclogenesis on that run ... About the only way to get it done in that ludicrous speed flow is to do it along a shallow corridor like that...so we'll see.

anyway ... that system was on the charts and we smirked as typical ..They've been on and off, spraying surface lows all over the place - this GGEM solution is rather abhorrently robust relative to whatever trend the former had. But, I still feel overall it's a valid little critter to watch ( if it doesn't evolve more...). It seems to be happening on the front edge of the next contintental surge of cold air and those do tend to curl early so heh. I still say the signal next up is a bit more impressive so there's no waiting.

I still have piles of [ internet weather-related social-media ] shit over here, and that stuff don't melt too fast

Oh yeah

oh shit, I'm the asshole on that one ha! ....I was looking at the 240 to 270 range ... CMC is a different deal altogether

nah... Not sure that makes sense economically to me... The product is still getting to be seen by a lot of masses for free that can be affiliated both with competition and repurposing - which would create an inherent conflict of interest. heh, we'll see

hahahahaaha ... Right, it's not like that means they're going to suddenly show more big bombs and shimmering galleries of glass-blower ice storms now that there free.

it was less than the GFS

what . Wonder how ECMWF headquarters feels about that. It's gotta be a change in policy by that org.

what news