Typhoon Tip

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Yeah Scott that was an interesting double December 96 and 97 back whence. The 97 Dec 23 event really sticks out for me, because I had sent off an email to Leonard - whom I was interning with at the time - warning him that the ETA profiles combined with the synoptics supported more white - one of those synoptic params was the clear sky the night before, which "capped" the cold when the dense cirrus came in at dawn... We were radiated down to 19 F, and that was prior to forecast for wet snow/rain, with zero llv WAA penetration - uh... no. Sorry. Tiny flakes so dense you couldn't breath and 6" in one hour, book ended with three hours of 2 to 3" per hour on either end, and we just got literally hammered to 16" in Acton in like 5 hours flat. I'd never seen that from anything synoptic... and didn't see anything like that until Dec 2005, when I got 7" out of one hour in that one. ... digress... But the Dec 23 1997 system was so anomalously off the charts - I don't know what to say // talking 1-3" of wet snow in Methuen and they ended up Jack potting 23" or something with two consecutive hours of 7" - and the snow was closer to powder, too. I just don't know how that scale and degree of bust is even possible, even by 1997 modeling standards that' buffoonery -

Well I can tell you that Novie 24 foot of blue is for real cuz I'm going out of town for the whole week... Prolly pack about three of those f'ers in there, while I'm tucked away abroad

Yeah... fwiw - the Euro's quasi zonal vibe doesn't really jive too well with the cross-guidance tele/ensemble mean. Not that the GEF's derivatives ever mean anything to the operational Euro... but, considering the EPS DOES jive with the GEFs tele's, that makes me linger over the idea that the Euro's just being a douche-bag

Man..the more I look at that, that's bizarre just based on my own experience, seeing the operational run be crucially flatter out west with the ridge comparing to it's ensemble mean. Usually it's the other way around .. huh

Does doesn't it ... I'll also add ( for how little it's worth ...) every GEFs member has some form or another of an eastern amplitude/coastal storm on the 12z cycle, D's 8-9-10. I find that interesting... The operational version just happens to be one of the farthest east and more blase solutions -

I don't think the Euro got that memo about the week of Thanksgiving - well...maybe it's not terrible at mid latitudes. But the flow seems kinda flat.

Boy ..I'll tell ya. It's too bad the NAM were not a more dependable guidance source beyond ... 10 minutes, because this is a truly nasty extrapolation for N-W of HFD-PVD-BOS: FOUS61 KWNO 151200 OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z NOV 15 19 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 ALB//662825 -1116 222112 39009799 BTV//765418 06916 192011 31999595 06000574828 02117 202711 41049700 06000756225 03220 172313 34019688 12000804318 01924 232915 41019598 12002984611 04724 213213 30009386 18000592315 -5430 293617 37979190 18003641609 -7431 323311 24898484 24000531019 -1231 350212 37919291 24000641615 -6731 363206 28888884 30000391230 00229 350109 39969295 30000631829 -2430 363304 34928990 36000421236 -0127 340211 42959498 36000812340 -0427 370206 37919295 42000651151 00326 330308 42929600 42000811653 00324 341204 39909597 48000621749 -1124 300307 44929800 48000572449 00722 321205 41919799 54000402251 -0621 240705 46009801 54000492344 00922 261203 43999900 60000793254 02217 190609 49000003 60000462143 -0619 211206 47990003 BOS//603122 00616 232514 40020099 LGA//542423 00417 242707 44030200 06000432824 -1116 182317 44070201 06000462124 -0315 222409 48070402 12000543636 02916 202817 44059801 12000502635 00415 232911 49070103 18000693415 04226 253423 40009398 18000693630 -1017 253616 46029701 24000500817 -0730 313517 38939492 24000501225 -0529 300218 45979501 30000361124 -2329 323612 40999394 30000310935 -1329 310416 44009500 36000441639 00128 330213 43009498 36000401147 -0728 310416 46009400 42000621744 00226 310414 44999500 42000531857 -2022 280418 46999602 48000771943 -0924 290618 46009502 48000722457 -0321 250420 49999805 54000772364 00824 240720 47049703 54000796471 00308 190422 51020005 60000888565 -0416 180726 51050004 60011959566 -3005 130320 53020504 PHL//572239 00112 252906 46030302 IPT//772119 01115 262407 43980000 06000422134 -1513 232706 50070503 06000512118 -0415 232606 46030201 12000551435 00919 243111 50060404 12000753625 -2215 253415 46019900 18000762239 -0516 250116 49010003 18000863523 -0819 293613 44989300 24000723236 01121 290420 47009502 24000561026 00121 320213 43949501 30000331334 -1827 290519 47009603 30000281129 -1124 320509 43999400 36000421549 -0125 290418 48009604 36000321637 -1123 310410 44989402 42000583457 -3419 260420 49989705 42000331746 00921 290609 45969802 48000723765 -1714 220320 51990006 48000383052 -0419 260709 46969804 54000807667 -1204 160422 53000306 54000562942 -1516 190807 50010005 60025979262 -2005 110420 53011004 60000703240 02115 160509 51000005 Look at the lower left series of numbers... for Philadelphia. Down there, in the mid-Atlantic, and the lowest T1 temperature is 34 F with winds 20 kts out of the NE. That's translating up the coastal plain into SNE where it's probably 30 to 32 and ice. The other thing ... unrelated to that, is the surf? This thing is so so at mid levels, but the models are really maximizing the mechanics of the negative tilting and helping to core this sucker down pretty deep relative to those 500 mb typology. I mean into the 980s mb isn't too shabby, and with a big high retreating, we end up with an impressive gradient that is approaching from the S. That means it's long shore fetch and probably there are big swells associated. What's the tide chart like. I know there's a spring tide scheduled the week of T-giggedy... But that looks like splash over potential either way. Hey man, for storm enthusiasts, it's all we got, but it's got some potential to be a multi-facet moderate impact Nor'easter. We could end up with noodles mixed with zrain falling into 31.8 F interior surface layer. That'd be neat.

Not high on people's priority list, I'm sure, but man ... it's 51 here, and after a couple of days where mornings were near 15 and afternoons were in the low to mid 30s, this feels like one of those "fake" balm gems you get in March where people think it's 70! Nice out. Doesn't happen without appreciation from me ... even though there's homage given to the coastal early next week and how it even looks interestingly like an unusual ice potential. Someone was mentioning the ice storm of the 1920's in November a while back ...that was an unusual coastal storm set up too - hm. Wonder if there could be any similarity. I tell you, if that high pressure over eastern Ontario happens to slow a little bit, you get that much more BL resistance and cold loading in the llvs... heh

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

Some of these fringe guidance types are trying now to shave 850 mb temps more, too ... now that the models have more unilaterally focused on the lead wave as we were discussing yesterday. At that time I was speculating that if the 2nd wave were to become the focus, that one appeared to have better chances for marginal/flip to parachutes... But it's interesting that the lead focus is starting to "maybe" inch downward in the profile - Not saying that means blue bomb in the interior, per se, but... that GGEM solution you reference does not unzip a pocket of -1 to 0 C at 850 mb pretty much collocated with the lower Greens/Whites and western Mass elevations as the low maxes by Cape Cod. Plus, these make-up-artist QPF products having the IP contamination on the NW edge... I'm not will consign this thing to just wet west of 495 and N of Kevin ... How much remains to be seen. I could see that continue to modulate fractions and end up more snow in there...Or, it gets windy and rainy and then as the wind gets light in latter innings ... there's this light slush flakes in the street lamps inconsequentially ... Welcome to the game of marginality -

Do you know of the source for this revelation ?

What responses are we seeing near thanks giving ?

I guess the only - present - modeled aspect ...barely worth mentioning, is that the Euro and GFS operational are a little unsure what to do - or how much may be apropos - with a N/stream diving dynamic "seam" wave out there D7 - 8.5-ish. ...Oh, seam just means that it's not really signaled by some modal index, mass-correction event lake the recent failed H.A. stuff. It's compact and not related to larger scaled synoptic unrest. The 00z GFS I'm sure others have seen. It's remarkable in a silent way, that the Euro was so similar to that from this far away. So much dynamic core punching as that thing quasi-bombs would wrap [ probably ] CCB down into central /eastern NE regions. More so in the GFS .. which in either case, this is no bearing or intention to forecast, just describing that period of time. The 06z GFS rendition taking the more northern route with that is actually probably a better fit for behavioral trend, to mention .. the global warm, HC pushed north shit, combined.

Yeah...heh, front loaded winter full of average highs and uninspired events. I've sensed a kind of tendency to verify closer to average, comparing original model assessments going back through the summer actually. Like we're doing the same thing .. in the early cold season now. Makes me wonder if it's all just over-modeling in general .. I mean, considering it's doing it regardless of season, normalizing outlooks is happening either way. But, things are trending to verify at less than the amplified sides, relative to their capabilities/what they could have given original appeals. Damping tendency, one might say it. Not sure what that's about.. But, this recent journey seems to fit in with that. About two or three weeks back, boy did we have a nice solid H.A. statistical/correction type layout, and it's been a adventure in how to get to the least plausible results relative to that signal ever since. Anyway, one of these 40s for highs with Darwin-honorable-mention-threw-the-pond-ice patterns, yeah might just fit in with that trend. One way or the other, fake news in the models verifies as blase reality.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway

Yes yes on the first of those two wave there ... god. I'm being impractically visionary for the storm enthusiasts is saying what needs to happen .. .it is better if that lead were to wash out entirely or enough so, that he following one "wouldn't" lose the baroclinic zone, and because it's hugely more powerful, it would be a monster storm. The previous stem wound GFS and Euro cycles were actually doing that... It just that since, the lead wave has come back into prominence - much to the chagrin of the storm enthusiasts. geesh

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self... I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems"

Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in. Could of swore I read that somewhere... Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too. And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution... I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly. The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15; I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently.

Meh...we could run through the same look in December really - ... the label of "december" doesn't really mean anything physically. I'm always a little puzzled when people say 'wait till this happens in January' - cuz, guess what? It would look exactly like this, in January. It's really situation to situational... Does the system have cold or not to work with. In this case, it does...more so than folks may be aware. The problem - as is/was just very beautifully exemplified by this recent 12z GFS - is wave interference not allowing any one S/W embedded in that total L/W evolution to become dominant enough, where other cyclogenic parameters would take over. This GFS run is a comical venture in how to systemically waste all potential - amazing... lol. It's got like five S/W now... seems every run since Tuesday is adding another f'n S/W for this L/W to host. The Euro should be interesting. It's has a couple runs over the last few that were more conserved around one S/W and more developed concomitantly with that being the case. It's got "smoothing" schemes built into it with that whole 4-D variable celebrity thing it's got goin' on there. So we'll see if it's trending one way or the other.

I'm not familiar with that site -no .. .However ( and this is no judgement ) just on the surface there, it's stuff I've read heavily about in my own fascination and curiosity over the years. I begin discussing and writing posts, replete with cited sources and annotation of various this that and other ... very paper-like, 10 some years ago back in the early days of internet weather-related forumsphere. Talking 2004 ... really. I understand much of this in concept, up to the point where any further would require dropping out of the mainstream employment circuitry and seeking another career through higher education - which I'm not going to do haha. Anyway, what that means is just that potential temperature increases or falls while starting from a given sigma level, the starting PV=NRT variables have to be changing in order to change the adiabatic surface 'potential'. The temperature and/or pressure is usually the case in SSW phenomenon -

And it actually looks ( when tracing these wave spaces back across the N-E pacific basin in the various guidance .. ) as though there may be three wave spaces in contention mucking up the works in that general baggage L/W migration. One thing that sticks out to me in this on-going monitoring/assessment effort for that period is that the L/W circumvallate is getting more intense over all, with gradients and wind mechanics. Eventually, if that continues .. that will play into resolving this maybe. It will limit the weaker wave's ability to express forcing ..and than that would feed-back in allowing which ever one is dominate to be that much more conserved. Fascinating... But that's a storm potential in there in my opinion... either way. It's a matter of amplitude and temporal-spatial, as well as placement ... but, I think the active regime is higher confidence in itself.

This is sort of coming out of left field ... but, I'm curious what the stratosphere -tropospheric monitoring is going to unfold like over the next month. We are passing mid autumn. In my research of this subject matter over the years, if there is going to be an earlier season sudden warming event, typically by the last two weeks of November, there are signs in the temperature monitoring, where there are small positive anomaly masses that start popping off in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels over upper stratosphere - sort of foreboding warnings that one is nearing, however they are related notwithstanding. This year, so far, nadda... it is early, so not seeing them empirical to date may be understandable. I am however. a little surprised we are not seeing them at least modeled to do so - the next two weeks will be interesting to monitor. Particularly because ... This would seem to be a favorable season for SSW phenomenon. Both the easterly phase of the QBO, combined with the antecedent solar minimum on-going through the summer months into early autumn should have left a lot of ozone and other atmospheric thermal trapping aerosols intact relative to solar max normals ( which extinguish more of these due to interaction with UV radiation fluxing). Both the QBO easterly phase, and the solar minimum, correlate with +SSW anomalies. So, it almost seems intuitive to me - anywho - that we should see an "anxious" column in the stratosphere, and earlier warm nodes in temperature begin to formulate over these next two to three weeks - which is consistent with other active years going back to 1979. Everything is really flat. The GEFs modelling at all sigma levels, right out to 240 hours, show zero modulation of warming burst behavior. Nor are there wind anomalies in the u-component, so there's less retrograde associated with terminating WAA at high latitudes/altitudes - which may be the problem... I think as of Novie 15, in a season such as this, with strong QBO and solar min correlations leading, we really should be seeing more warm nodes but if the circulation of the hemisphere is failing to terminate planetary waves up N, there may not be any way to deliver warmth into the stratosphere's favorable thermal layout - interesting. Just to remind folks... Sudden Stratospheric Warming is pretty much exactly what that says... Rather abruptly, a warm plume of air gets detected. This plume of air usually goes on to do one of two behaviors: comes in and out of detection as it rotates around the axis of the mean PV at earth curvature altitudes ( ha ); does the same thing, however, begins "down-welling" toward the lower levels/tropopause. The latter is necessary for correlation with -AO forcing - which is a lengthier explanation on how/why that is the case. But, there is a time lag of about 20 to 30 days. If the plume descends in altitude and interacts with the tropopausal depths, that whole process takes a couple of weeks to complete, and as the statistics over the years of monitoring show, -AOs were 21+ days in the making. If we look at the past years..there are plenty of warm plumes that suddenly materialized, but did not descend in this typical down-welling behavior... So the actual down-welling is important in the total correlation model.