Typhoon Tip

Mm... I think the ship's already sailed on the extended demonstrative warm anomaly idea. We're getting boobs from the north bursting around the east ends of warm boundaries like a burlesque brazier as it is... And the -EPO that's dumping cold into western Canada in the nearer term, those typically lead r-wave lengthening and that'll pretty squish the ridge/ablate what's left of it ... It'll be hot in Chattanooga I guess Not saying it won't come back later in October, but this is an outlook in flux and the correction appears pointed down for the time being.

Science is absolute and settled? I've never heard any "...International list of accredited scientists" make claims there's nothing left to science. Unfortunately though... Society won't fall into shit man. Nah ... human beings do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses - global warming doesn't rumble the Earth and blare horns around the bend like that. Folks deny because they can ... and modern convenience still protects them. And the interesting thing is.. most denier don't even realize while they are flouting fact that they are being protected by conveniences they've long come to expect while they are doing it. You know, this may no be as ubiquitously known as it should be... The Earth is currently going through a mass-extinction. The other mass, "media," as well as the consumers of their product are just obsessed and utterly preoccupied with the thermometer .. tho more recently, ice caps and sea level rise are gaining some bandwidth. But, many species have gone extinct and the losses are accelerating? Paleo geologic records match the other epoch boundaries in the history of the planet to what is happening now... So shit ... if we wanna talk apocalypse, mass extinction events are a form of apocalyps... So technically, you've already lost the debate ( royal 'you') before pulling a chair up to that debate. I think part of the problem with this climate cataclysm shit is quite frankly Hollywood. It's not coming as a gray abyssal wall tipping over the horizon, or a Lucifer's Hammer comet/asteroid impact... or an X99 class solar radiation induced fire storm that subsumes the top mile of the planetary lithosphere into a magma sea ... It'll more likely come by way of crop failures and pathogen releases, and species migration habitat destablization, oxygen fixing biota break downs in the oceans ... to mention, over-population suffering from failed provision caused by the former cocktail inducing duress and probably wars... There will be adjustments along the way... but a lot of failures that aggregate in time to a forced capitulation which is philosophically losing anyway ... All the while, a select few held out their wealth in enclaves that we don't know about... all that fun stuff. muah hahaha. Just kidding enclaves but who knows -

Not sure if your bold is an accusation and belief of what's happened(ing), or a statement of how someone else is perceiving matters ... For me, I don't agree that scientists have been conditionally "fixing" numbers to fit preconceptions and/or agenda in the majority practice. Isolated malfeasance ... probably. That's concomitant with the species frankly and cannot be avoided. But, if one questionable apple slates the entire orchard for chopping and clearing, then in reality no one wanted the orchard in the first place. And I also find that whole climategate saga as really fodder for knee-jerk reactionary denialists that happened to come across turns of phrase that yeah... of course they are going to seem like a-b-c when/where taken out of context ...then of course repackaged for the nearest high-fiver. Look the ice caps are melting the atmosphere is heating up. It's over. ( not you per se, but to any one hiding in our midst that's frankly a f'ing complete nimrod and/or sociopath at this point). But ... we're probably on the verge of getting Will to a blow a gasket so we should probably not diverge this thread's purpose for being any more than we already have - haha. And I don't wanna get into politics talking points anywhere close to the anonymity and "hiding" of stellar virtuous social-media depots, either. Holy hell would I rather give head to an ice-pick!. Because one could be entirely righteous but from Lords Of The Flies to heretic ... history would paint them irrecoverably into an entirely wongeous corner purely by virtue of the douchery doctrines and iniquities of human truth and parlance - there is no god. only missed snow storms

There may be a geo-physical premise for not including ... in that the conclusions are not fully vetted. There are arguments that have to be ruled out - believe me! I am not of the denier ilk so please do not couch me in with that stat. However, objectively two aspect leap out at me - suppositional on my part ( admittedly ) but I haven't seen any seminal work in either area ( so excuse me if it exists : Firstly, tropical cyclone measuring was always an estimate art. The Dvorak technique ( including improved standards therein) have been applied for estimating cyclones for decades, but even the polished methods have deficiencies. Human error gets in the way for example... Perhaps not hugely so, but minor ... minor variations due to unavoidable, inherent subjectivity leads to inconsistencies. Additionally, standards and operator skill are also variant from one oceanic basin to the next which augments uncertainties. There is this "CNN" system developed in recent years, which is the abbreviation for "conventional convolution neural network" which sounds like something out of a dystopian AI thriller frankly but it is what it is... Anyway, these techniques were not in existence as recent as 30 years ago. Andrew 1992 was a cyclone originally maxed at Category 4. It wasn't until reanalysis confirmed what most first hand accounts suspected *( per anecdotal ) that 135 mph was insufficient to appropriately characterize. This was in part/indirectly supported when measured building/architectural science indications were then integrated in reanalysis. It is now a Category 5 posthumously. Considering today's various satellite techniques and different storm penetrating technologies, it is unlikely a present day Andrew would be assessed as Category 4. Andrew is just one example where/when solid-state physics was able to assist in exposing both the reality of that cyclone intensity, but also exposes that the old techniques of assessing storm intensity were plausibly insufficient. Therefore, it is entirely possible that some percentage of the entire 'upper strength of the strongest' assumption may in fact, in at least partial, actually be an artifact for better detection. Secondly, in a Meteorological perspectives it is not abundantly clear that a GW atmosphere should immediately connote stronger storms. That's certainly romantic but the verdict is out on that - physical mathematics. The tropical sounding ( vertical structures of temperature, humidity at sigma levels) has to have a certain thermodynamic gradients - that much is known. Gradient powers everything in nature. If you exist, you exist because something is restoring.That's how all dimensions of nature work really. In fact, you're capable of reading this sentence because of the electrolytic potential that exists in the neuro fabric of your mind. Without those electrical potentials between (-) sodium and (+) potassium, you don't have life. In atmospheric phenomenon, variations in PV=NRT across a domain space ( in three-dimensions) is the gradient that makes all weather happen. For hurricanes, those gradients produced via saturation ... where unstable pseudo-adiabatic vertical sounding results and keeps the lift going, which sucks in more torridity from the ocean surface and on and so on.. Which is why you need a steady source of hot ocean to keep the machinery going. If we follow that simplified model to its logic ends, in a warming world, if it warms at all levels evenly, these thermodynamic gradients do necessarily change - if the gradient stays the same. Hurricanes are not intrinsically stronger. In order for the GW upward intensity to be outright causally linked, the tropical cyclone model -related gradients have to increase. Thus, it's not abundantly clear the tropical delta(PV=NRT)'s is really more culpable than merely better assessment described above. Once the better part of this latter science gets underway... along the way it would also have to take into consideration the fact that Global tropical cyclone intensity/storm frequency, also has a periodicity.

Birthing rates plays a role there -

Well light dawns on marble heads ... https://phys.org/news/2019-09-convince.html In my own proclivities to lament the short-comings of the climate -crisis forefather communication's shimmering gallery of what not to do ( go about attacking the fundamental scaffold of society's make up ), I'm also quotable as mentioning concerns to that/this affect. Those mistakes of yesteryear started this chain-work, where earlier defensive posturing led inexorably to a culture of denialism, and carte-blanche to be creative in the way people go about doing it because there's no moral culpability/sense of consequence for actually submitting one to a delusion and believing it... It's as much a psychological problem ( integrating sociologically) as a geo-physical one now, set into motion decades ago by bad diplomacy and dissemination of an impending crisis. And it's consequentially very bad now, because this is a present day reality where we have to move quicker, than the time it will take to convince the world it is in trouble. The earlier warning tact ...it really created a different sort of climate crisis, one that is just as pernicious and seemingly insurmountable as the environmental one, itself ... and thus, there two wars going on: one against ignorance and enlightenment about the ways and means of profligate Humanity, and the disparate cultural design against that enlightenment - the latter of which is an ingrained cultural climate of distrust and vitriol ( to mention, morality ), one that is multi-generational too. To be fair, not all of which is the climate-frontiersmen fault, either - there seems to be an entirely separate post -Industrial Revolution - ramification that is timed exquisitely badly but I won't get into that. It's not a novel for anyone of us to have mentioned this concern at the various "water cooler depots of the social-media," less than compendium ...no. Most know ...or have suspected for some time, that this is a sociological issue. However, the problem was not going away? And over the years, we are not seeing a very sophisticated ( if at all ) gap/diplomatic control measure being adopted by disseminators - other than misinformation and misuse for a special interest group's gain, but that's another digression.. There needs to be art in research exposure to the masses.

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - My guess, no. It could take that long. Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it. How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month? Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day. Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing. However, I don't think the latter is favored this year? Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely not so in the future. Here's why: Global Warming ... quite plausibly ( so admittedly supposition ) another in a myriad of emergent properties no one knew would happen because of GW jolting, too. How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension. Short version, when pattern changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be. "Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted. And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. It's not just the anecdotal conjecture of the rocking chair crank extolling the glory days of when "uphill both ways" of yore, either. So, that specific behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway. They're not really designed for that discrete level probability. But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales. Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat Twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, they "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity in lieu immorality. Distrust paranoia, and now this "fake truth" phenomenon has emerged along the way, and are coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ... Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there. And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot. ( see how I did that ...? ) Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years. Makes sense to me... Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force. Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint. That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale. And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm - So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater. When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing). Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N... As an after thought ... I guess the sting of short duration temperature change, as annoying as it may sensibly be... may not necessarily constitute a deep tissue pattern variance, either. But, we have tele support that it will change, and be sensibly noticeable, both -

The EPO has wended its way into a negative phase state ... that’ll pretty much be the ballgame for the Alaskan sector as that’s a warm signal up there, and modeled to persist for the next week ...meanwhile an early cold plume and upslope snow event becoming increasingly more likely in the lower latitude Canadian high country /interior PAC NW ... as immediate downstream of there is a typical mass balanced loading pattern - classic teleconnector correlation ... There’s been a recurring theme over the last 15 years for unusually early cold and potential’s for snow in the middle latitudes of North America…very early. I believe it’s part of the pacific heat budget and the swelling of the Hadley cell that’s been noted/papered. This is forcing the AB phase of the Pacific basin ... thus intrusion of NP/EP blocking. This resulting in organized R-wave geometries that are unusually proficient cold deliveries earlier in transition seasons.

Guys ...go check out the 18z GFS from 190 hour and cycle thru those charts going onward. That's about as fantastic a synoptic cinema about a Blue Norther in Oklahoma and Texas as you'll ever see ... And by the way, that 200 hour seasonal switch is hugely signaled in this particular run's totality... I don't know, that -EPO seems to mean business. There's now an inside slider cold anomaly situated into the Pac NW as near as 90 hours and an upslope snow event way ahead of schedule. good call there either Will or Scott or whomever that was - not sure who but there's been talk about snow levels coming down out that way. It's buyable at this point - ...I should be clear... by seasonal switch I'm just saying more discerned evac of continental thickness and resetting the dial downward.

Oh it's in there ... folks are seasoned return users who've mastered the art of bargaining - it's just as annoying

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown. It is ... disconcerting. I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events. Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs. I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.

Yeah, totally! And that's a fine example of this facet. But it's not always cut-and-dry, either. It's 100 for three days in the first half of some July, ...then, it's 55 for three days in early August ... having long forgotten the former inferno. It's smeared, and often happens in the aggregate, such that making up for climate happens over time. Other times the corrections are right on top of one another. The GFS is sorta been buckin' for the latter over recent runs. We'll see. Climate numbers don't seem to very much year to year - notwithstanding the GW crap for a moment. But in the stable regime, if it's -10 for a week straight in January ... ahh, gotta go with a earth softener warm up in February say 50/50 of times... Part of the problem is that Devil's proclamation in there, "... in a stable regime.." We are not in a stable regime. I don't think -necessarily - that has to mean that the "make up for losses and gains" tendency stops happening. But, that the make ups get more skewed and perhaps mottled by freak events that are happening for the instability itself... Code for, it's complicated.

In any case... that's a really defining range imho. I've been noticing this across the last several day of GFS, and it seems also to be in the Euro now that the time is into it's edge ranges ...where there some sort of hemispheric house-cleansing of 564+ dm thickness along the 40th parallel. We're not exactly rolling warm air masses anywhere close to 570 and backside high pressure/warm sectors are down a lever mark or two after that ~ range. If there was any geriatric life left to this summer as to whether it's back is actually finally broke or not, I'd say that's pretty convincing.

No one asked this so consider it a straw-man discussion point. But I see this soo many times... We get some freak anomaly and usually within temporal shouting distance, there is some sort of anomaly that's occurring that's offering up enough ballast in the other direction to at least get back closer to balancing climo We may actually see the apex - relative to climatology - of this overall warmer than normal pattern in about a week. And look what the GFS attempts to do two to three days later. This happens in reality though; and of course since the models should be a facsimile of reality ( it is hoped .. ), we often see this in the models too. Really close to freakishly warm for two days prior to this panel above... and it would almost take sub 540 dm thickness to compensate so why the hell not-

You're top question is a loaded one... Empirical Orthogonal Functions ( principle component analysis in statistics ) post using diagonal cross-sectional analsysis are used to create a polynomial expression: Example (X+1)(X+1) ... or, (x+1)2 such that Y = x2 + 2x + 1 Now that y'all have a popcycle headache my work is complete...muah haha. Environmental problem solving does not end up with such easily determinable roots, however.. Solving for X requires other techniques ...usually Quadratic/"completion of the square"... blah blah I mean I'm paraphrasing through this.. .You should look up EOF derivatives and learn about them... It's how all Teleconnectors are daily derived. What's paramount is what CDC vs CPC do in their particular methods differently, though still are both EOF reliant. CDC uses the lower level wind flux anomalies at their grid points. The CPC uses the mid level ( H500 ) geopotential heights at there's. When you ask the question: "You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO?" there really isn't much difference. You didn't ask for the difference between CDC and CPC ...but I thought I'd take you through that so you'd understand that the mid level geopotential deviations (CPC) drive the surface wind anomalies - those two are inextricably linked via mass-conservation kinematics. So, saying the loading the pattern of the AO ( typically the 1000 mb wind flux anomalies ) is actually also an inference of the -AO (blocking at high latitudes) causing the lower level fluxes to take place. So yeah ... 500 mb height anomalies at CPC are used/available to the public ( not even sure if the CDC calculates the AO actually ..huh interesting ) but if the AO is negative, cold loading into and below the 60th parallel is increasing. As an aside, it's why the EPO and NAO are important ... because those indices may say something about where a -AO is setting up conveyors. You sort of hit at this a bit in our longer second paragraph and I like that approach. It's not enough to just assume (-)(+) AO will lead to x-y-z...

'Course ...no sooner do I post that missive and this ...

Yeah I'm really impressed by the gradient being set up by the models. I know Scott's also mentioned this, as did I several days ago when the Euro started putting up 24 C 850 mb slope between Montreal and Boston back whence... Here is the synoptic overview for the D9.5 (only used to elucidate the gradient..) This example circumstance is more akin to an early April wave event - yet even more extreme in a sense because we're not likely to find 576 DAM thickness in warm sectors that far N in mid spring. Still, this is unusual for autumn - I think it may just be a consequence of the erstwhile -AO preponderant summer lingering into early Autumn, in that we are setting the continent up for cold loading earlier; meanwhile, we have a bloated Hadley cell latitude height bias all over the world. These two are increasing the ambient gradient potential, quite plausibly these types of layouts we see below are a result of that enhanced polarity around the 50th to 60th latitude band where the twain shall meet. I suspect this could continue just based upon the unrelenting -AO total bias. There are times when that index has alleviated toward neutral SD (standard deviation), even going positive. But over the longer term the modeled positive ventures of the curves out in time seems to get correct down, while the nadirs do just fine to verify either as is, or even lower. That's a 2ndary correction? A non-obvious subtle trend that needs to be taken into consideration for the transition season, overall, as that darn AO has often thrown seasonal outlooks for a loop. Even NCEP has admitted - or begun to do so ...- as of about ten years ago, that regions from the NP-Lakes to NE are prone to non-ENSO related modulation of their temperature biases - code for, 'we can't predict the peregrinations of the AO out in time with any dependency, and when it is negative, it can and often does usurp the ENSO forcing' In fact, this latter facet still doesn't really resonate very well in the outlooks that come from the social-media's sphere of environmental science enthusiasts/pass-time professionals that play around with that sort of thing on-line ( hint hint, like in here ) ... Be that as it may, I suspect we have chances for huge temperature variations across baroclinic cycling, throughout middle latitudes ...and a hurried flow tendency ( also concomitant with enhanced mid-latitude gradient circumstantially in the mean ) helping to roll out cold into warm episodes quickly. Probably through Christmas or so... after which the seasonal nadir starts to show up and we finally decompress the Hadley cell hang-over swollen headache.

Sometimes the GFS just looks less than 'organic' in it's attempts to flip seasons ... it's like it's forcing - heh...

.... Do you think that's getting better in the decades to come ?

From what ? ... I realize that's a figure of speech - er, probably. But I'd just assune it stay 88 with Tors and Canes until the day after Halloween .... I mean, seein' as that's totally possible -

Will ...that's a prelude to a ice storm - heh...

Not to be a wise-ass but no ... that warm ridge is the bigger of the two anomalies - we have to integrate between the curves and it doesn't take A --> B to see that the regions inside the warm anomaly occupy the greatest surface area at that depth; which concomitantly means it is taller in heights over a larger volume compared to the same departure/distinction coupled regions out west.

Fortunately for the world ... there is no logical correlation whatsoever - even in a politicized climate debate, which in its self is absurd to begin with .. - where Nazi-ism has any iota of relationship in the mathematical justification vs denial of the greater climate debate/truth... That entire exchange (abv) could not be more patently absurd, and is entirely contrived nonsense. come on man... is anyone in here modestly intelligent -

I'm interesting in the next 10 days to 2-weeks for historical precedence and climatology - which we won't be able to compare until after the fact.. But I'd like to see a ranking against other 20th to 10th relays in the past... it's probably a tedious study as climate numbers tend to be bundled by months. Need a date-to-date reanalysis ... I think NCEP does provide a web interfacing for linear numbers look ups. The other aspect/hypothesis I'm toying with is that the preponderant -AO is helping to mask what might be a historic Hadley cell intrusion into mid latitudes. That's important, because we've had some heights that should have put up lots and lots of high 90s this summer but other than some middling heat here and there, it's been an 89er. The way that works is, the AO is suppressing the ambient polar jet S of normal ... not hugely so, but just enough. Plus ( for summer standards ) that means more gradient than normal along the 45th and 50th parallels ..also a subtlety by say an ishypses or two, but that's enough for the following: As ridge/trough couplets then roll along that axis in southern Canada, the confluence intervals are engineering unusually strong surface high pressure regions that are occasionally ( in models ..) wedging in quite far underneath those higher than normal heights. This, between 35 and 50 N... That means easterly llv wind anomalies/factoring. Continental heat plumes are adulterated and/or failing to get dumped into those ridge scaffolds that would/could otherwise support hotter thickness/diurnal temperatures. So what we are getting is modestly above normal out of heights that look like they'd support an inferno. This is also compounding further by the fact that the lower Maritime trough is a near permanent fixture ...and that the models occasionally fill and that faux warms the mid/ext ranges. The Euro's been doing this every other run for like five days re that particular synoptic concern. But, it adds to reasons why we are disproportionately cool relative to heights over all... Last night's 00z run walls off the bigger numbers due to that trough shunt - though the EPS was less. Basically, it's been a historically hot heights summer ( maybe ...conjecture ) in this paradigm, but is not represented in the dailies. Fascinating what lengths Gaia will go to hide GW from one of the chief constituent society's most guilty of causing it - I call this this a "cleaning cycle" on the global oven. Gaia wants to get rid of Humanity, so ... keeps us thinking it's cooler than it is, while using us to turn up the heat - ...how devious. Ha! just kidding...

We need a freeze ... bad https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/22/health/connecticut-eee-death/index.html