Typhoon Tip

This doesn't prove anything other than one's lack of any real understanding in the physical processes guiding the greater environmental system... particularly that Time is a variable in it, or any causality-link to pernicious influence in a system... And, also, this stuff above is just horribly blanket applicated and is incorrect.. No one said in the 1980s the Acid Rain was going to result in that. No one said in 1990 that the Ozone Layer meant that... Both those were warnings...both those were dealt with both at home and abroad, in global efforts to curtail their negative impacts and guess what? It worked.. Acid rain reduced by scrubbers at stack release points...and thought obviously still exists...the technology is there to prevent it/mitigate ..because of those sciences of those eras. This is complete garbage. Non-reality-based shit. Period. As far as everything else on this list... 2000 to present ... it's just too stupid to comment on.

I'm curious if the ensemble push for an elevating NAM might help in preventing a nadir quite as deep as 2012 ... We're still likely doing a bottom 3 ranking ( or so...) either way, but if the oscillation/mode relaxes toward neutral we could be on the verge of a slowing in the melt rates. + annular modes are actually inversely temperature distributive to middle latitudes and tends to favor land-based cryo ... in addition to cooling the polar vortex domain space. But not sure about sea ice though. Particularly this early in the in the boreal autumn ...and also considering the melt- inertia, which is also a factor.

yeah...it's interesting to see 2019 be within decimals of those floor values when there's an average bottom date of Sept -16 among those other years, and we're only on August 21

This is gonna be close ...

There are solutions to the entire power-grid aspect of this that are completely obscured(ing) from masses. Partially by design ... partially by habit. There are "exotic" technologies in the private sector that no on even knows about ...buried, quietly... be it Trumpian morality and ethics, ...or just the hand-me-down dogmas of generational traditionalism within people's ways of life - basically ...culturally suppressed. But because of the suppression ... oblivion, and what probably should be more obvious has to now be 'out of the box thinking.' It's not that it is out of the box, ...it's just that we've been conditioned by a combination of convenience and apathy not to consider. It is possible to sequester electrical charge straight out of the ambient atmosphere. Yup... free energy. But therein is the problem ... that poke in the craw of the sociopath, "free" ... "hmmm... shit. That means I don't get to con Humanity into dependency on Oil and other pernicious means of energy extraction ... wantonly ignoring morality along the way in reaching the goals of my quarterly reports ...! God damn it..." It kind of reminds me of the "Mosquito Coast" Think about it - even you are not a physicist ...you should be able to intuit the plausibility. There can be a way to draw power directly from any gaseous volume that contains energy (thermal resonance) greater than absolute zero - ... we're living on a planet where there is just such a volume, and guess what... it's got so much thermal energy in the free static air that any quantization would be so large a number, it would escape all effective meaning... And, these devices have been invented... It's called the thermoelectric effect ...basically, it's theoretically known spanning multiple generations... where it is possible to convert temperature differences, directly to electric voltage ... ( and vice versa...which could be harnessed in home heating and cooling without too much imagination ... etct) And it's all done through the physics of thermocoupling ... ...etc..etc.. But nope - Humans can't seem to evolve away from that pesky evolutionary advantage that no one would ever concede was necessary along the way: GREED... Hoarding and me-firstitude favors the individual. See...the way that works ( crude model): when the collective cooperation spirit of the community is about to cause the extinction of the village that hoarder survives his/her genes into the next generation - greed lives... It is why greed is actually a core instinct along with all others, in the genetic make-up of humans. It's sneaky, stealthy ...furtive presence in all dealings has piggybacked along with cooperation instinct along the evolutionary tract. Any moral ( morals can be bad or good by the way...) we can learn to avoid them? ...suppress is more like it... But, greed is no longer necessary in times of surplus and opulence ...and at present state of evolution, human ingenuity has long outfoxed the basic ecological model of survival by provisions therein. We produce our own provisions...is surplus. Perhaps if the asteroid does strike one day, or the Carrington Event shuts this thing done and there's an immediate jolt back to primal living ...greed will have it's stealthy place again... But until that happens... it's an instinct that hasn't turned off...but is causing all this... And is hugely exposed. Because it's morality is now competing with the morality and ethics of that which would provided a greener vision for the world. That's really all it is... that simple. Humans can't do anything truly altruistic. Nope. They have to invent a illusory system of value, Economics... ( which sorry for the soulless among us who are so bought in they're oblivious to reality... money has no intrinsic value outside the parlance and tragic comedy of Human affairs - we all merely agree on it's value... ) and then hold individual's ability to survive for ransom by making profit off that dependency

Within a Millennium seems a bit conserved to me.... Particularly when the GW is accelerating ... I didn't look very closely at their math but on the surface ( heh...pun) they didn't appear to have logr effects due to accelerating variable values... This whole thing with synergy is just not being taken very seriously -probably more like less understood. Unrelated ... but Sanjay Gupta was recently extolling human beings are simply not wired to process the specter of climate change - I further that sentiment by re-iterating some of my recent opine material, related to " ..humans have never responded very well to threats that do not readily appeal via one of the corporeal senses.." - it's commentary routed into the same concepts... and GW/climate change is an insidiously quite stalker. This is particularly true, when the one force that is causing the ballast of the pernicious changes ( Human activity ) is uniquely adaptable ... thus making it easier to deny for readily evading its harmful effects via that same adaptation. I further again that synergistic effects ... acceleration, and gestaltian under-estimates can under calculate ablation ...the atmosphere accelerates further... that complicates their application - I'll have to read the article again... ( I'm on about 7 of these today - my god..) But the ocean levels rise at a greater rate than these linear application of rudimentary mathematics will imply given acceleration.

Yeah that product I posted is the MASIE ... or the augmented IMS ... hints at that in the lower right text block ...which for some reason had previous escaped my attention. Heh... anyway I found a different site that describes similarly when searching this shit - anyway, I think these curves have to converge at some point - thing is... we're so close to shared curve space that's probably splitting hairs at the moment... 2012 vs 2019 I mean

Okay ... .this is just quick and dirty Web goop but... IMS is being used by the National Snow and Ice Date Center ... IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis at 1 km, 4 km, and 24 km Resolutions, Version 1. This data set provides maps of snow cover and sea ice for the Northern Hemisphere from February 1997 to the present from the National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). That's what's confusing ... if we say "...2nd lower behind NSIDC" ( which I'm not trying to refute...) but this statement above says they are using the same IMS tech, and said tech is showing 2019 has been lower than 2012 the whole way... that's a discrepancy.

I have a question - which may be fairly 'duh' but since I haven't been by those other sources ... Are those more comprehensive than "sea ice only" ? That IMS product is sea ice only ... And also, just fyi ... the IMS product comes from NSIDC - we may be able to put the pieces together here on why the disparity. It's gotta just be some dumb product thing I'm not seeing shit

I don't doubt there is/was relevant science and/or postulate content that predates the shenanigans that go in here I mean ..it's a public forum ... to which a social media outlet certainly qualifies, and folks rarely cite their sources, anyway. That said ... this came up back in Eastern days... from which this site really owes it's heredity of users ... (initially anyway ...that's probably obscured by now), but unfortunately, content didn't follow. Also, I frankly wouldn't put it past anyone in the general ambit of research ... regardless of affiliation and rank, elsewhere ...to poach ideas from dialectical free-for-all sources ( like the Web when it's not degrading into vitriol ) and then run with it using the wherewithal they have at their disposal. Much of that wouldn't even be malfeasance ... not the point. If I'm in a conversation with someone and it triggers a thought progression...and I science it and make discoveries... It's just where the 'idea zygote' took place. But like I said...like mindful quorums and consortia and who-knows-what intelligentsia ... they will tend to converge on similar ideas at the same time - this has taken place throughout human history. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it as an afterthought .. .

Firstly ... I like the opening thought here ... There are indeed vying forces ...some more dominant than others, in every multiplex system of Nature - to which the governing atmosphere/climate forces certainly fall into this give and take. Secondly ... you know it's funny - this business about "fossil" fuels... It took this planet some 100's of millions of years to sequester carbon out of the global biota ...and inter it all into these VOC chemistries ... then, Humanity comes along. With its ingenuity ( which has clearly out-paced any pragmatic checks and balances in the evolutionary sense of it...) we've managed ( ..if left to our own devices ) to liberate all of it back to environment in unbounded form in just 1,000 years. 100s of millions 1,000 The idea that there is anyone at all who would have the audacity to even try and ask anyone to negate ramification - ...that's incredible. I suppose it is possible ( tho proven not the case on Earth...) to find a system somewhere in Nature where you can completely forcibly infuse change without actually witnessing change ...

Fwiw - as of two days ago ( 18th ) from IMS: https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Really ... Not looking for credit per se ... but, I haven't heard about the gradient hypothesis from anyone other than the person who proposed it five years ago ... and has been heavier about it over the last two. Now, it's owned by someone else - Heh... I suppose - fire was quasi implemented as a formal tool in human history at the same time every, too, so ...it's possible more than one person had the exact same to the letter ...inference regarding climate variations and large scale circulation forcing -

ISM is lagging by date ... as of last check... They seem to update that about every 10 days...and it's for the previous week, too...so by the time it's published it's an addition three or so days beyond that week... Aug 11 ... That's what I've seen from them since July. They'll probably release an analysis for the 18th in about two days... oy - As far as the subject crap - nah dude. More like concern... I don't really care if people want/need/do/or don't have biases... I just want to know that what I'm reading isn't that - which admittedly is probably not going to happen in a public social media source. word. Just so we're clear. In order to make that assessment... I may sound I like I care about specific posting behavior ... but that's not it. I'm not sure anything you have said should invalidate IMS inclusion - not that you mean to... I think it is at least worth it to vet why their plots vary... interesting. I'm wondering if it's density related.

I don't know… It strikes me a bit like people just not wanting a record to be broken I'm sorry it does. Otherwise the IMS plots I supplied would've been part of the discussion all along and looks a bias when potentially valid data is elided. Maybe it's not that way OK…

We keep saying this ...than it's not - where are y'all getting your data... I've been utilizing NOAA's IMS ...and admittedly, it has not updated since the 11th ...but there curve was substantially more loss than 2012 as of the 11th ... it'll be interesting to see if that tend trajectory could have down such a drastic 45 deg angular change so abruptly and gone back across the 2012 slope - which is what would need to have taken place according to their products in order for the current 2019 to be less disastrous - Anyway, may be a moot point - the AO is trying to rise in the GEFs ensemble. I don't get to see the Euro EOFs but... should it rise, that may alleviate the ice loss rates - slow it down ...and in fact, if that's true they may be one in the same already... I want to stress though, that there's nothing gained in the longer run by 2019 failing to surpass 2012 - it means nothing.... The longer termed issue with the polar ice cap remains dire... I'm hoping there isn't some coveted like idea that we are coming out of the arctic crisis? ... just sayn'

Yeah that IMS chart post just updated as of the 11th and looks nothing like that - interesting

Looks like everyone's referring to different data ... The curve I'm looking at ... 2019 has more ice loss than 2012 to date.... not saying the season ends up that way - or even if that date relative measure is correct ... but

Free fall... The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

thanks

Source?

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.