Typhoon Tip

Page turned as scheduled Pan-continental thickness correction is complete. We’ll get warm days here and there but certainly not sustained. Even the south has had a thickness evacuation ... highly unlikely they’ll return to anything close to what they just went through 50/50 cold signal out there

Also ...I've read several attempted reanalysis type frame-works on that 1804 thing in the past ... To me, it leaps out as an extra-tropical bomb that infused/engulfed an unusually pithy latent heat source/extreme baroclinicity evolved quickly because of it, a bit beyond the standard Norwegian model low - Think 'rogue wave' like, when these more typically vying parametric sources seem to actually super-impose, super-constructively.. Super storm '93 is one.... Sandy is likely another example. As is 1804.. I don't really believe that a hurricane actually had concentric snow bands however -

OH ... it's possible.. sure. Not just because historical annuls actually have cases where > 50% likeness took place... But, truth be told, if it were physically impossible, the model would not have it ( That winking isn't meant for you ..just the royal setting... ) Anyway, my point is, the peregrinations of the runs way out in time are because of quasi-fractal effects, but at the end of the day ...the processing is still railed along by mathematical/geo-physical principles. If the runs were engaging in solutions that were mathematically impossible ..heh, that'd be one helluva of forecast model, huh - It's always a matter of when something is going to happen "like what" we see in one of these fantasy movies, and also.. considering that in order for something like that to happen, too many things have to take place to "cause the air-plane to crash," that is why they are always rarer than the norm. Duh. That's all code of very very low odds

it's been doing that for the last couple of weeks ever 2nd or 3rd run.. Honestly ..it seems like I see that them in extended range every year. It may be just a modeling artifact of letting these tool run infinitum out to the edge of nowhere and then expecting them to appropriately handle a full fuel tank ( tropics ) of energy 'nough to power the Global grid for 100 years or more

Every once in while in early to mid autumn a model run saunters out an extended range run that attempts to do this ... Usually it's the GGEM ... and to be fair... Sandy was often depicted this way some 12 days before it's legacy unfolded - I think that was the first time a dream-range vision of the GGEM dropping of a full bird cane into a cold core tropospheric well actually kinda sort happened.. . I give the GFS plenty of latitude given that this is far too far into the future than any model should be allowed to run ... but it certainly makes for interesting cinema from the 12z, huh -

Brian ... I recently had a 30 hour back spasm episode in my lower back... A coworker was out two days the week prior with a similar condition - short duration but borderline severe. She an I were considering if there something possibly pathogenic about it - just thought I'd mention.

You should preface with something close to this bold statement ... maybe adding this, 'which this is only pertinent to the cape and islands,' THEN, proceed with the rest of your paragraph ? Yeah...cuz otherwise, when one blurts out of left field, it tempts others to roll-eyes. Without providing context, they will invariably figure for gooberism -

Okay ...and seeing as 99.9% of civility accessible/accessing this social-media pass-time do not and most likely will not be present around those locations during snowstorms of major magnitudes and --> snow <-- ... no matter the intensity of the --> storm <-- ( lotion and kleenex) ... what do Banana High Pressures mean for them ? Oh ..I see - heh. Your post was in deference to that immediate conversation spin-off... I thought you were itching to posit some profoundly moving insight about the proximity of Cape and Islands whole world to typology of cold weather phenomenon -

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that..

Whatever sucks the tip of his narcissism and is needed regardless of morality to fulfill his celebrity lust -

Short answer(s) ? No, it doesn't necessarily mean either of those two things ( technically the terms 'Nor'easter' and 'coastal' should be interchangeable in this context ). Quick clarification: I wasn't really meaning to comment as to the whether or not the phenomenon can occur. Thinking back to those massive events ... Jan 1978 in the Lakes, and again in Feb back here in the east that year, as well as the Jan 5-8th 1995 "Megalopolis" slow moving blizzard: Those fateful events of lore slowed to a crawl while maxing out. When systems do that, they are perfect for exposing the "lucky" impact regions to proficient precipitation mechanics, as well as any other storm-related parametrics such as wind/chill... drifting ... effects on tides where that matters, and so on. Storms in fast flows max out, but they don't hammer a region inside the bears cage in the same protracted measure. The impact aspect in the now-vs-then discussion has sparked many -a debate. Somewhere, somehow, there is an objective comparison, and out of that a reality "precipitates" ( haha ) that a foot of snow falling in 1978 was more impacting than 1995, which was more impacting than 2005, which was more impacting than 2020, "driven" variously improving tech/infrastructural standards. At some point "NESIS" probably would need to be considered for revision - if that hasn't happened already - to factor in relative Impact potential/part of that acronym. Not sure we are there yet... but I am fortunate in that I am old enough to remember a time when 6" of snow was more of an obstacle to common societal business affairs/operations than it is today, first hand. In fact, anyone whose childhood was in the 1980s should be able to vouch for this change. But I'm digressing.. The fast flow is still going to produce cyclogensis ... and those regions are still going to be favored where they always have been. But, when they engineer in a region that is speed saturated, they'll tend to conserve the back-ground state and end up moving right along whether they are deep and moving slowly or moderately so, and zipping in and out.

I would argue that modeling tenor(s) is/are just increasing gradient - so far - amid a pattern that's maintained the same scaffold it has all summer since April. I have noticed ... or had it dawn on me mid way through, the models overall have had a subtle bias in both ridge and troughs in the D6 to especially 10 range - and that includes the Euro in it's own inimitable way ( despite it's correction schemes, which really are not apparently as effective in smoothing beyond D5 anyway). When either trough or ridge is distantly fetching into the edge of the runs they end up having normalizing into a dullard complexion in nearer terms. Troughs and ridges being over done in the extended is par for the course of most guidance, anyway. But this has been very almost machine like in regularity - and given to the shared ownership of that bias across all of them, it makes me wonder if it is something about the whole gestalt of the circulation that is causing the models to do that ... As an aside, it is possible that the peregrinations of technology, et al, have just wended these tools into a scenario of shared tendency.. Anyway, the current heat in the S/SE was supposed to at least time-share up our way and never really did. That's an example of this correction shit, among countless.. And, I suspect the packing pellets while hurrying a final lawn maintenance afternoon as wafts of wood smoke pass by Scott's nose look of the D10 Euro may also be too much when time comes. That all said, I do think that with the ENSO taking a back-sea, while there is some suggestion that the hemisphere is in a -AO longer term tendency .. I wonder if a 1995 similar autumn could take place. That was fascinating year. It still is my number 2 ranked winter behind 1978 ( but it's arguable...), just because these were uniquely delivering/satisfying winter pummeling over multi-regional spaces of the eastern continent. 2015 was too localized to SNE, but .. yes, if we choose to look at the world as flat-earth ending at the end of the street, the whole world had that greatest winter since the Pleistocene advance ... I realize this sparks vitriol. It's like you dare bring an objective analysis about Tom Brady's short comings to a sports-radio talk show that services Patriot fans .. and holy hell it's a good thing no one knows where you live. The reality is, the impact of that snow was mitigated some by the fact that 90% of it happened with DPs less than an inCREdibly lofty pwat, 10 f'um F degree temperature ... Jesus, one storm I blizzard walked was like shattered down-feathers to 20" that I was able to cut foot falls through for over a mile with almost no increased heart rate it was so gossamer .. Yet all there was was trophy hoisting. All that winter did, over a somewhat goegraphically reduced area, was inflate tallness of the numbers. In a way like that pro athlete that owns all records, but his/her teams never win any championships. But in deference and compassion to incensed sanctimony ... yes of course 120" in five weeks did some damage and lives on in infamy. The winter is a solid #3 Both the 1978 and 1995 were -AO dominant winters ... or in the least, timed pulses negative with Pacific ejections... I almost see this year as having a chance ( at least ) to see something similar. But again... the fast fast fast flow that is present [ and probably more likely to plague winters going forward ] adds an element of uncertainty.

It's just unfortunate for those of us that have no more room to grow or improve

Thank James... just adding to the bold' text: ...I did not go into the following, because of much of it is hypothetical just yet, but the ENSO may be losing the battle to global warming's disruption of the previous statistical packages. Example, a +1 SD El Nino may no longer be as effective in forcing as it were say ... 100 years ago, when the slightly cooler gestalt of whole atmosphere meant that a +1 SD warm ocean was a larger "differentiable" drive. Following from that logic, "an average winter" would be less forced to emerge/culpably assumed by a neutral Pacific. In fact, even a +1 or -1 SD warm(cool) ENSO may be less observably forcing. So I guess being picky ...I don't like the term "therefore" in your context Something like this may have taken place recently, actually... The El Nino last year failed to register (*per NCEP) in the atmosphere until deep into February, when the hemisphere was already nearing spring ... It seriously f-up seasonal forecasts, from multiple sources, both official and amateur. Going further back, the super NINO of several years ago also did not appear to 'trigger' as many known consequences around the globe - quite plausibly because though it's SD was derived from the longer termed data set, that longer term data is not as meaningful to an atmosphere that has changed into a new paradigm. Others have opined that the ENSO numbers are maintained/assessed based upon a sliding average .. That helps mitigate some of the 'changing system' uncertainty. However, that does not take into account acceleration in the system. The curve is not merely rising; it 'dove-tailing along that ascent, rising logarithmic, so sliding-means would fail that to some degree. These [ apparent ] weak physically manifested warm ENSO's in recent history ( as in atmospheric response) do seem to suggest that outright reliance on the ENSO is more risky than ever, particularly when departures are tepid. Experimental? absolutely ... I'm interested in the winter [ probably ] for entirely different reasons than the average pass-timer in here... I don't care so much about specific snow and/or storm and cold magnitudes ( beyond my native passion for witnessing weather drama, of course...) I'm more interested in testing both the speed of the flow as it relates to the observance of enhancing gradient, as well as whether the AO is in fact a more obvious contributor to forcing the hemisphere's hand this go around.

In any case... the CPC modeling that is [ apparently ] NCEP's go-to has modest +.3 SSTs... and the integrated upper 300 m has been vacillating between modestly warm and modestly cool anomalies ...which doesn't lend to either warm(cool) ENSO state. Those vacillations may be explained by transient MJO - as these respective waves flip-flop the mass fields in their propagation from west to east ..they will slow if even temporarily stop, the easterly trades depending what cycle/phase the wave is in space and time...blah blah.. But the point is, these cause smaller non indicative, quasi - Kelvin wave responses, that no sooner the previous longer term dynamic resumes within intraseasonal time scale ( probably even mere weeks at that ) after the wave has passed. Imho, the modest surface temperature warmth ( < than .+5 ) may be related to the background warming signal to some degree. It seems to me it's always like that.. or, overwhelmingly majority of times I ever check into NCEP's ongoing monitoring and publications, the SSTs seems to very rarely be negative for any extended length of time - however barely positive they are, notwithstanding. This is going back many years at this point... Taking all this into consideration ( and I know I was asked for this opinion ..heh ), I feel as though the ENSO is, in a relative sense, dead nuts on 0 capacity to force a response in the R-wave tendencies going through autumn ...and based upon these advises from agencies charged with responsibility and access to more than mere charlitenism ... that may be the case throughout the winter, too. That pretty much leaves the North America winter distribution of temperature and storm frequency ( and probably ...storm track biases ) open to more polar index modes/modalities. That said, PNA --> PNAP constructs play a role and have a longer term trend/tendency to consider. This is complicating... There is a tendency to "bulge" the Pacific due to latent heat budgeting ( very associated geo-physically) to the longer termed warm. Primitive climate modeling decades ago did suggest that east Pac ridging pushing periodically up into the Alaskan sector as a possible consequence of GW. It's unclear if something like this is directly attributable to that... or, if this is just a multi-decadal PDO connection. I almost wonder if the best aproach is variability ... The AB phase of the Pac is getting more favored using the multi-decade approach, but... the big blooming HC ridge is more AA ...which is diametrically suggestive there. Course of least regret may be 'variability' in the PNA this year ... but I do believe over arcing -EPO will be in play a times... which all lends me to think: My hunch is this is a stormy winter with big snow potentials for the midriff Plaines through the Great Lakes, with a 50/50 chances for that to tally farther east ( the lower OV/TV to upper MA and NE regions). Fast flow will be a problem for modeling performance.. Slow moving bombs are less likely... The expansion of the Hadley Cell, which is a global assessment/part of the background warming signal will do as it has been doing for the last decade ... which is enhancing mid latitude gradients in the means. This gradient concomitantly speeds up the flow and thus, embedded events ... and even pattern modes themselves, tend to move right along. If this preponderant HC expansion/w circumstance were less factoring .. I would lean toward more east distribution of the above layout/description .. but increased gradient means that neither side is "giving in" very readily.. In 2015 February, it seems the AO became so overwhelming that we end up inside the PV spacing far enough to escape the ablation of the 'too much fast flow'. Excessive cold and storm systems combined were thus favored, but the lower water content in the snow during these events hearken to the extreme cold air dynamics, which are typically lower in precipitable water. I'm bring this example to light to point out that in a patterns where the forcing/dominance is from the N, that does not necessarily mean event suppression in every case.

I wonder how much of this sst distribution is more seasonal/ephemeral ( perhaps even typology ) in that regard, though. The homogeneous layout of warm vs cool, above and below the equator respectively, leaps out at me. The southern hemisphere is modestly negative in a coherently pervasive characteristic layout there - that strikes me as interestingly coincident with the ending frames of the southern hemispheric winter. Vice versa over the northern hemisphere. It doesn't appear there are many convincing "regions" that are identifiable and the ubiquitous nature of the positive anomalies may thus also be seasonal in nature. If these sources are using a sliding mean ( which picks up on multi-decadal adjusted averages in GW paradigm) that could explain the southern hemisphere "normal" winter look below average. The question is, ..are these anomalies relative to some 50 or 100 years data mean? Or, are they relative to season or intraseasonal time scale? That's important in answering the above question. And it is an important question ...because using these to assess correlatives with specific features and characters may be entirely futile if 20 minutes of seasonal wind stressing essentially annihilates these complexions in lieu of a more permanent/longer term truth of what the distribution is/or will be... The thermocline depths and integrated upper 300 to 500 m of ocean plays an important role in these overall distinctions. The nearly homogeneous layout of modest negative anomaly spanning the southern hemisphere deeper latitudes is interesting, either way.

I guess old habits die hard

Mosquitoes/EEE are the buzz right now ( heh..see what I did there. nyuk nyui). Anyway, it is actually a rare infectious disease, passed along by Mosquitoes. It's not "more complicated" than Malaria though? I'm not admittedly certain what you mean by that... I think you might mean rarer? If so, that's true. At least via the reading available by NCBI and CDC, they don't illustrate a transmission cycle that is more complicated - More mosquitoes along with the host avian species moving into regions due to species migration ... these are papered btw if anyone cares to read. Anywho, these are carrying the virus and increased probability of infection in humans ... that's not a difficult logical leap. We can call that uncertain but ...for some of us, we're safe using the information at hand and making protective assumptions. That part of that specific part of that discussion we'll just disagree with I guess. We need a freeze!

heh not sure folks should be dinkin' around with the socratic method in this particular interpretation/case.. Warm weather means mosquitoes means EEE ... arithmetically that is clear. That's pretty much it. In general, CDC/ ... IPCC etc.. rely upon the larger pantheon of sciences, "..Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases.." I feel pretty confident that EEE is part of that concern. -even though I get it that we're in free speculation format in here. obviously but, maybe there's a darwin award in there... run around at dusk in 70/70 October mosquitoes because EEE isn't Dengue Fever haha

Satellite presently has the diffused boundary look ...where the warm front is hard to identify and 'smeared' ...leaving the low-levels still in cool air while the warm air stops advecting but lays down over the shallow layer... It may mix out -we'll have to see https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

There seemed to be some disbelief or discrediting attempts in that other thread before it got evacuated of the triple e stuff, as to how/why it relates to CC and insect -related pathology. Yes, there is a causal link being presently scienced. It was report in the Fourth IPCC ..which I won't get into politicizing and fear mongering/paranoid "GRETA" this and whatever people need to do that - I don't care what you do beyond, I'm just exposing the information is there. Table 1 ( c/o NCBI ) Emerging and forecasted effects of climate change/global warming on infectious diseases and other human health conditions in the world Direct effect on other health conditions Heat waves: Short-term increase in mortality, especially among those with cardiovascular and/or respiratory diseases, and increase in heat shock patients Co-effect with air pollution: Increase in asthma and allergy patients Storms and floods: Increase in morbidity and accidental death Indirect effect on infectious diseases Expansion of mosquito- and tick-infested areas, and increase in mosquito activity: Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases (i.e. dengue and malaria) and expansion of epidemic areas preetty sure 'EEE' falls into this category ... But again, this is not me - this is IPCC and is available in multiple formats/sources if one chooses to go and look Contamination of water and foods with bacteria: Increase in the number of patients with water- and foodborne infectious diseases Deterioration of environmental and social conditions: Increased risk of infectious diseases

We can blame the Maritime trough for this .. .and whether the NAO is neggie or not, it's definitely the handling downstream that is having a transitive effect of blocking the ridge from rolling in and toting the warm air in as liberally as even the Euro suggested it would by 00z tonight. It may yet...but ...that subtle resistance downwind is back-logging the trough just enough, which is causing the flow at mid levels to persist NW over us, ...and that fluid-mechanically is the ball-game for warm frontal intrusion.

I mentioned this earlier in this thread - this is a bust day ... Classic spring-time reunion, too. This is precisely the kind of crap that happens in late Mays, where a warm front stops at the Hudson -...

Not that you asked ... but that smacks as "primal" more so than "ironic" to me - but I think I get what meant in your context there. It is probable that human beings walk along with more in the way of instincts whether the conceit of modernism and/or species-centric egoism allow us to know or perceive we do. That, and...we're 'in-the-weeds,' so we may not be inclined to think of it that way. But, "monsters in the closet" or "under the bed" ? These are in-born in the nature of human beings. Fearing the dark cave, keeps individuals from going near the dark cave, and they don't suffer the consequence bear or big cat ... although I'm not sure what to do with "bulls" in this but I guess. Anyway, so, they pass that trait on and neither do their kids... or their kid's kids...and on and so on. And there we have it. Instinct. And as children are closer to the primal mid brain ... we've gone and built bedrooms with built-in dark caves.. Ha! ..kinda funny when you think about it ...

Capitalism isn't the solution in that way, either though - The solution is, don't burn fossil fuels, period. Nothing else. If an economic system is footed on Oil, that oil cannot be burned - literally as in..set on fire. It's just that simple. If we can get to a reality where the provisions necessary to feed and cloth, and warm ... 8 billion souls and counting, takes place without burning fossil fuels - great! It doesn't matter whether the organization of society ( economic engine ) into ways and means that proficiently disseminate, is footed in oil, agrarian-base ... pixie dust, so long as whatever those means are, are not doing what we are doing to the planet [ apparently ]. You didn't ask... but, one of the fundamental flaws of the denier frame-work is: If something of uncertainty is causing a problem in a system, why does that mean one should keep doing anything before figuring out what that is? It's just laughably illogical - what's your point or goal in denial? But.. around and around we go. This denier crap is either that, illogical ( and can be caused by incapability to register the problem intellectually... ), or, is flat out immoral. In either circumstance, the denier is incapable of parsing out that question, and so there can be no winner in the debate. One side is right - the other side can't accept it. And that's it