Typhoon Tip

1993-1994 was like that... It was either a +NAO of such extraordinary magnitude, or... perhaps one that was like a "west-based +NAO", either way, we ended up with NW flow bone rattling cold, in between lots of systems entering confluence ending up shredded overrunning affairs. I guess in this sense,... the NAO can giveth in multiple ways huh

It's almost like it achieving an April affect from difference means... Although, I've seen that kind of whirl on satellite in April last two weeks before... perpetually jamming atlantic vomit up against the western geographic wall, so does it really matter whether it's subtropical this or cut-off that? not really... How many times do we see a subtropical entity at 40 N moving SW in mid October ? That, right there, ...is an example of an expanded Hadely Cell... I mean that's just wrong ha

days and days of submerged solar energy pretty much everywhere SW-W-NW of SNE, while we rack up phony cold biases... I don't like it frankly. This blows. We could be 65 to 70 with tepid autumn sun kissing Kevin's napes with the perfect amount of soothing warmth ... Yet, anywhere east of the Berks? Bum cursed - it's just unrelentingly brutal. This is what D6 since it was sunny and anything approaching mild... ?

Any question as to whether SNE is really is a marine climate ?

It's the behavioral difference that tell the character of the field imho - These statistical comparisons and variance as elaborated upon, they are very useful as gateways into a deeper realm of "arctic-introspection" - it is only there where the 'gestalt' reveals what is really going on... The fact you elucidated above - to me - is a fine expose on a way in which the arctic is shrinking/in crisis, both faster and worse than mere numbers suggest. Because when the edges start receding earlier springs, and the recuperation is being delayed - and allowing further melting while in wait - in autumns, let's consider: It really is a matter of time before the instraseasonal melting factors of 2012 will in greater proportion, recur/redux ( I would argue they did not this year; we are just further alone in the assault crisis on the arctic domain so we may be converging on a similar look in that sense). But when the former does - while there retarded recuperation and earlier erosion dates taking place - that's a synergistic acceleration effect, right there - and it would not be necessarily something suggested by these linear statistical comparison very well. As well, tell the real story. Not you per se/personally .. .but "people" in general don't get that synergy, or 'more than the sum of identifiable/constituent parts' is an emergent property of complex systems. They are not allows evidence-able. But when they are, they can have striking presentations. It just offers another layer in the communication issue/denier political diplomacy headache, in that getting folks around to admitting a problem ( be that by force or not...) is one thing; try then explaining that, 'oh, by the way, this is going to be far worse'

I've actually noticed a "dumbing down" of the general skill from the human side of operational weather as the state of the art of the field has become ever more reliant upon automations and/or point-and-click conveniences avail in general. Just one in the myriad of ways that we are living in an expose of how technology effects Human society. It's a fantastic subject for digress and it is taking every molecule in my body not to go off into a patently unreadable diatribe ( haha) as only I seem capable of creating... But, sufficed it is to say, we seem to be passing through an evolutionary turn - it's a great sociological experiment along an evolutionary inevitability we've arrived upon as a species so powerful in our ability to alter the environment with the extremeness that we do. We'll leave it at that... In the mean time, ... I distinctly recall reading AFDs both at the local and at the continental/more regional scalesj as recently as the 1990s, that were far in a way more intellectually guiding? They just sounded smarter. The biggest difference I can detect between now and then is the technology servicing the disparate eras. Now, part of that could be just our own evolution as individual reader/consumers of the information. We do get more sophisticated until 80 years of age - when the other direction kicks in. Maybe stem-cell research will have an answer for that one day. But, mm. I don't have a photographic memory, but I have a very good one when it comes to having read and/or seen things in the past. I can compare in mind's eye pieces written from NCEP in their Extended range discussions, that were truly instrospective and insightful back in the day .. they were almost more speculative in fascinating ways. These days, there seems to be a cow-tied tendency to regurgitate what was just seen on a model prog/synoptic chart. Yeah...we know, "SCHRIPEL." We just saw that too. It gets so much so that I don't read read them anymore. I've noticed the same thing with TPC... They don't hash out risk areas anymore, unless some ensemble systemic-based output does first. I don't think it is necessarily bad? Despite the overtones here.. Because, otherwise, why invent the technology. Eventually, we have to use it. I guess there's plenty of room for interpretation there, in that reliance needs to be gauged - obviously relative to the skill of the tech being employed. So perhaps 'over-reliance' is the simple conclusion here.

Not to be fussy but is it a really an analog? I mean, ...yeah, this probably does have some cyclonic phase stressing that's more hybrid that purely baroclinic - sure... I buy that. But, that 1991 thing had a full bird cane engulfed in side of it. This does not have that, that which goosed 1991 toward the warm phase diagram area. I guess it's a bit of a philosophical thing. I mean, it "looks" similar -sure. hugely so ha. But is it physically the same?

What do you/we think is the next step tho - This isn't going to end well for traditionalist, I'm afraid. As machine intelligentsia gains 'skill' that inexorably leads to a future that doesn't requiring human staffing. I mean I don't mean to lecture - obviously you know this. But I often muse of this issue and you're reminding me of it. It may be hard to project a vision of what that will mean, but it is not beyond the realm of possible to automate all of this shit. Like, everything, and actually do it without the cost of Human error too, which for better or worse, appears to be the goal ( intended or not ). True, the technological ambit is not there yet, but its coming ... If we really wanna get Sci-Fi futuristic there, which I'm sure this isn't being read beyond this point in this shimmering modern era of virtuosity to the written form... just wait until the "weather modification net" comes on-line. Ho -ho man. That'd be a sad sad day. Part of my own fascination with the weather has always been the mystery of what is in store. It's taken me to middle age here, after enough epiphanies over time as to why in the hell I am so obsessed with where the models are going - and seeing that relay into the actual - that's is satisfying curiosity. We all do this, in our own inimitable ways. But at the heart of it all, it's really motivated from the same seeds. It's the intrigue, and the entertainment of it is the satisfaction of that wonder. I suspect much of which is rooted into that evolutionary aspect of Humanity that sets our species apart, and that is that we have exceptionally evolved sense of curiosity. When one wakes up from a cat nap on a warm humid summer afternoon because a clap of thunder cut into their fugue, what's the first thing that passes through their mind: It's a raging curiosity to see where that is coming from - at the heart of this nutty compulsion it's just curiosity. The weather modification net destroys that outlet that taps into the primal sort of drive about discovery and seeing the world around us. They'll use some exotic frontiers of electromagnetic spectra to enforce quantum momentum of all particulate barionic matter that amasses the atmosphere, such that there is no uncertainty - i.e., weather controls. Yep. No more storms anywhere where it can adversely physically impact a society. They'll have them spin thousands of KM's removed over horizons, while regularly watering the land and replenishing general hydro between 2:45 and 4 am, precisely, every night. Course, there'll always be a nitwit that tries to sue for getting wet despite the schedule. By day, always sun, with puffy picturesque cu placed with the deliberation of an artist's brush upon the skyward canvas, instructed in its x-y-z coordinate with precisely calculated mass and ultimately, utter irrelevancy to anything that resembles waking up to a clap of thunder on a warm humid summer afternoon. Every day, day in ...day out. For ever. The ultimate in mordancy conveyed via the splendor of a technologically enabling utopia. Until such time as the 'net fails, and then a more fractal -guided previous dynamic would resume. That would be the storm... people trying to sabotage the system, because in the absence of the weather's chaos, they cannot make sense of it all.

the 'swaying sky scrapers' makes it! hahaha ... oy I don't know what that is from, but it sounds like a numbed version of a p-wave event off and asteroid impact scenario.

Not for me ... I was down on this all along... case 1 NAM is routinely too far W and NW with cyclonic influence in the west Atlantic. Not sure if that is true everywhere...it may be something unique to the oceanic-continental interfacing that exerts intense baroclinic compression in that vicinity that sometimes entices the physical processing of the model to overdo it at times. case 2 I'm not sure that is entirely untrue for all guidance frankly - if perhaps just more vividly coherently biased in the NAM than those others. Several significant cases where W-NW arcs were too extreme in models ... NWS bit hard on a Euro lie just a few recent years ago ( for example ) when that model was backing in a whopper CCB shield with 20+" of champagne snow in 55 mph wind gust clear to NE NJ and they had all of NYC in a high-end headline blizzard warning ... which busted with equal failure in the other direction. This stems back too... The big event in March 2001 that pivot into a C-NE and effectively jilted everyone ~ south ..that thing was originally slated to be an MA/NE juggernaut and that all but failed in most areas outside of central and N NE ... case 3 I mentioned two or three days ago that the isentropic surfaces on the Euro did not look that impressive ( anyway... before even considering the biases ) which made me wonder where the QPF was really coming from.. .Yeah, we could have argued for oreographic enhancing but 2 " ? heh... that's what I was seeing on some media coverage and I wasn't honestly a big fan of bigger numbers. I am actually singularly impressed that a cyclone of this satellite presentation and verification even got this far, considering the antecedent loading/kinematics were so weak. It seems this low was really almost born out of planetary torque balancing more so than a typical 'slug' of wind/max associated vorticity advection in the deep layer. Default in other words, ... big high moves E of Ontario over 2 to 3 languid days and all of the basic S of NS is in an E trade scenario probably just ends up twisting in on its self. Not sure that has the same mechanical forcing to drive a heavy rain shield W though. Some of this part is speculation... admittedly. Overall, it didn't sit well with me and I said so. This system really was an epic waste of time and coverage. It really had 0 redeeming value to it... All it did was ruin the sensible weather for three days, while simultaneously busting forecasts.

That two to three days should be watched actually - I mean legitimately so, not just the typical model-physical fractal bomb of the infamous D8 eye-candy, either. That's pretty well signaled as temporally concurrent with the PNA teleconnector doing an about face and at least for a short duration ...soaring upward along a 3 or more standard deviation correction. That usually signals something of a western ridge-eastern trough couplet with more amplitude than less to put it nicely. Also, the MJO has been hung up and trundling around in the Phase 8-1-2 of the Wheeler chart in the models and their ensembles from both the GFS and Euro clusters for some time and that also is constructively interfering.. If that were not enough .. Hagibis is in the process of reminding Japan that she sticks out in the middle of TC cross-hairs like a white-supremist lost in circa 1987 Compton ... and just as that metaphor suggests, its' corpse will be completing absorption into the westerlies during the run up to those dates... I think that may be more a forcing that shows up afterward, as it will like take some time to transmit that signal's wave dynamics into the gestalt of the larger circulation over the N-NE Pac into N/A than just a week from now. Still, I suggest the recurving in and of its self is an indication of the underlying canvas for a -WPO tendency which sets the stage really... Kind of fascinating to see these evolutions show up in the operational. I mentioned to a couple few days ago that I though the 20th onward had a shot at being strikingly cooler than normal with storm threats... I don't see any compunctions in moving that up a little with the on-going suppressive tendencies of the AO we've enjoyed for so long. If that reverses suddenly ...okay. But just like the last positive ensemble mean, the index had to correct less on top of timing and then went back negative - I can see that doing that again... We'll see on that. The GFS ensemble all carry some form of amplitude through the flow D7-10. For general weather enthusiasts its a system to watch. It's too early to consider p-type from this range, or climate notwithstanding.

ah ha ... -1 + + 1 = 0

Well ... heh, I also didn't mean it as a sleight-of-hand just in case. I just wouldn't have been surprised if folks hadn't notice. But I'm seeing this 15 billion hectare cyclone with 8 nodes trundling around inside of it but none of them are very impressive. like what the bag is up man - But that alone ...the entire basin S of 40 N by maybe 40 W has easterlies.. interesting

I guess the devil's in the semantics, huh I mean, what is meant by "very" in that context. As in ... almost never? Or how about, once. Or, even if just rare, really, we are not capable of comprehending how truly vast the cosmos is. Rare could be 1 per galaxy. Well, there are uncountable numbers of galaxies - and whenever cosmologists get to a consensus re how many there may be ( give or take exponents ) there's a trend of having to up that count by additional exponents ever couple of decades of ever refining deep field, astronomical observation technologies. The impetus being... who know how many their are, but the numbers is really too vast - so vast in fact that to even consider it a limited number escapes all practical meaning and therefore we can get into whether any such limit actually exists ( more a philosophy ). But, each galaxy that can be studied, there is estimated to average hundreds of trillions of stars ... Yes, the Milky Way alone has 200 trillion stars, all of which are - presently scienced and considered to be gravitation anchors for planets ... which are also gravitational wells that concentrate potentially volatile chemistry and the building blocks of life as we know it - not to mention the hypothetical bio-chemistry ... to which the adage amid scholars and scientists of the cosmological field often refer, "if you can imagine it ... the odds are, the Universe is doing it somewhere." No imagine having to multiply all that latter intrascale galactic factoidal array by a an 'incomprehensible to the point of essentially escaping all effective meaningly' large number and well ... you get something like quasi-infinity. Rare, ironically... becomes a huge number Something else - simple logic would beg - must be going on to limit the observation of other advanced civilizations. I read a lot. I get exposed to lots of hypothesis and counter-hypothesis in the yin and yang of speculation in these matters.. It seems to me that dumb luck plays a role too. Hell, for all we know,... there really is "A Galaxy Far Far Away ..." that has species interacting like the 401 outside of Los Angeles. We just happen to be circumstantially distanced like a Baluga hunter's bivouac Igloo ... ephemerally set out upon a glared white landscape too desolately removed and blinded by other lights to know or even know how to see that a proverbial 401 exists.. That would be funny premise for some sort of sci fi... We are, at long last, encountered by a transgressing extraterrestrial exploring species that's like, " where are your constituencies...?" "Pardon - constituencies?" "Wait.. your species has none... as in 0 contacts?! How is that possible" Through it all .. one thing that always struck me is, we can see the light from distantly red-shifted structures .. these objects that only came into exposure after putting a telescope fixated on a previously black region of interstellar space, for hundreds of hours... slowly capturing sparse photon at a time.. to finally create an image of galaxies some 13 billion light years away. Yet, we cannot detect the after glow - assuming these species obey the same physical laws that appears the entire Cosmos has to... - of these outre worlds. We should be able to hear their song long after they've evolved and or annihilated away. Throw a rock in a lake on a glassy still morning and the water returns to that same mirror reflecting serenity with no echo, signifying nothing took place there ... Yet the wave permeates a mile or more arcing outward away ... To any detecting source that may be that mile away, the arc arrives and it carries a message of something that appears to have just happened. Yes yes ..we all know this ... But, there are no rings - the point being, did the stone ever happen in the first place. That's less the annihilation thing, and more the Fermi paradox..and that, despite having the technological capacity to detect red shifted objects, in deep field Astronomy, that are 13 billion light years away there's nothing else but that light. It's definitely a head scratcher. The other aspect .. this could all be moot if the little green men ( and women ) are communicating with some other form of aggregate electromagnetism ..or even if something more sci-fi were involved.

Yup... agreed on the bold HUGELY. I have a personal hypothesis that relates: The modern conveniences of the Industrial Revolution are creating a society of apathy, which ultimately leads to partial failure in accessing the intellects of its population precipitates, along with 'putting to sleep' the morality that is believed to be emerged from the consciousness rooted in executive higher mental functions - those that are needed in a more cooperative/cooperating landscape. This is a particular con in the total pros and cons assessment of the IR - and there are pros ( I'm not meaning to damn the IR ). It is/has forced changes in how Humanity engages both at the individual, but in the collective sense, however. Cooperation suffers... The last million and half years of an evolutionary process that many don't even believe occurred, much less are aware, created a species uniquely dependent upon one another to survive. That's abruptly, instantaneously on a geological scale, become less needed - IR has effectively cut those requirements. And, nature abhors a vacuum. In the absence of those cooperative circuitry's .. how do the minds of the denizens get wired? I dunno - ask Columbine? We are unwittingly IN a vast sociological experiment - i.e., an evolutionary turn..etc etc etc. It's not that clear and cut, though, either. I mean, obviously... we are not all nut-jobs. But it really is a human failing ( IR or not ), where we try to put boundaries and definitions ...overtly quantize Nature into nice neat, tidy police work concepts and disciplines... when reality is actually more like "the Cloud" Seamlessly interacting probability curves. IR's over provision is, despite being a distinction that is non-ubiquitous among all humans, increasing the probability of errant vectors in the population. The latter stuff you mention is intriguing. Your content reminds me of that which circulates the Sci-Fi underground, the "kill-switch" hypothesis ... You used the term 'agency,' which is a loaded jest ha. But, agency could also mean that no species is allowed to exceed this "Civilization 0" rank. Kill-switchers believe we must be flirting with doing so, perhaps driven to do so, in fulfillment of that over-arcing Cosmic theme. There are more philosophical approaches. Take, the "Fermi Paradox" for example. The simplified - maybe - mutilated version goes: If the Universe is so favorably organized in such a way to promote the evolution of life, ... where is everybody ? Wiki' actually has a decent entry ...though I would not recommend anyone use that source as gospel by any stretch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Not sure what the temperatures are like so far this month but ... anyone else get the sense this month so far and in the models is pretty much a paragon October ? The irony there is that we are experiencing epitome month 10 when the expense of the freak blizzards west and expanded Hadley cell exciting weird multi-phasic cyclone types pretty much in every direction SE of Long Island over the west Atlantic... both of which are pretty fantastic SD deals... The one over the Atlantic is less appreciated and under the radar in terms of significance but that's a highly unusual look.

Man... talk about being locked into a pattern mode ... the GFS does the exact same shenanigans a week later

We can't ... His use is/was a common vocal-contextual trope - "human beings" in that context doesn't mean were damning all to hell for some unredeemable limitation... It usually means 'the majority'? I don't have a problem with that based upon evidences. "People" (same idea..) need examples ... ones that appeal, directly, to one of the five major senses before they believe any kind threat is real ( more of psychological take there but a good one, because the individuals integrate the modes of the mean). If they don't get that tactility, they 'tend to' be like that typical water-cooler head nods and lip service politeness thing - "yeah yeah, right - sounds true. Interesting" I agree that it shouldn't be as assessment applicable of ALL who walk under shade or sun but I don't believe that was the intent ... if he was precise, which titling contexts seldom are, he might have said people too often tend not to be wired for - I agree that people have trouble with larger specter ( if they even can see it for that matter) of what the issue is about - it's almost like they hear what it will mean, and since they don't get why, and don't directly sense the evidences ( above ), they knee jerk deny. The 'whys' requires component analytic decomposition into constituency aspects, such that one can then see how it all fits together -.. heh, not many folks engage in that sort of mathematical processing as a general rule. That's part of the "untenable" nature of it right there, tho. Some can, few do, save one or two... and they get ignored. Humanity ignoring it's own pathway to destruction might be a road paved long before modern treks ever walked - it happened when evolution chose the great brain experiment. Being a bit spacious if not even specious-for-fun in that description, admittedly. But still, that's what is meant by not wired to see it. If we were born with a gene for it, we would be compelled not to buy plastic, burn paper with chemicals that make the smoke look black. Gas and oil technologies would have be vetted for consequence before accessing their stored chemical energies in a rush for profit. We just would have emerged different tech along the way - unwittingly, in concert with the gestalt of Gaia-health, perfunctorily. Most have to study math and complain while doing it...and are happy to have survived their B.A. (if they get that far or beyond). To that end, that is what Dr. Gupta is talking about - it's not as tenable to the commoner as we ( unfortunately) need it to be, and even many who rank "above" the hoi polloi for that matter are either having problems doing so, or ... ..that's the moral/ethic arm of the denier stuff. Which is related to your monetary interest thing. Some are just flat out self-centered to the point where they fight is really against god - speaking euphemistically. They are really pissed at the finality of life and flip the bird to reality and the universe for ending theirs at the end of 80 or 90 years if they're lucky, so they're burning all their bridges and partying one way or the other.. That's all rhetoric for this "it won't happen in my life-time" mantra you come across once in a while.

Not withstanding Scott's EPS statement ... The Euro's isentropic layout doesn't look hugely wet much N of S zones... Probably a big mist and drizzle shields S of the Pike with bands SE CT/RI CC Islands.. Personally I still think it is possible this all is overwrought but...given that we are inside the wheel house, I'd put money down on a system - just less clear exactly what the impact is going to be.

yeah it's a good catch on your part; I was in fact thinking how fast flow/gradient saturation is detrimental in organizing and/or constructive cyclogenesis ... Overrunning and IB events...mm.. I'd almost wonder if the opposite is true - less conveyor belt systems and more overrunning actually. I'm sure of it... it's like if you have 20 systems: 10 are overrunning and 10 are cyclone/belted in normal flow synoptics... In fast flow, you get the 20 but but 4 are cyclones and 16 are overrunning. You have to have overrunning as a base-line requirement, and whether that kinking in the baroclinic fields takes place after the fact requires S/W wind differentials. Fast flow absorbs those differentials..which is shearing and on and so on... So as a S/W enters an already velocity rich field the differential wind velocities are less and well..less cyclone.. but that still leaves the overrunning? if that makes sense... So in that sense only the stronger S/W can get the deed done for cyclones in faster flows. It's really just velocity/vector arithmetic and mass budgeting.. I was pretty clear earlier to that other user that I didn't think the gradient/compression stuff necessarily meant less snow ...much for this line of reasoning. Fast in and out and low residence time, sure... There's another type of more continental system though...where you get duration just because it keeps coming at you ... The given system is synced and moving with the L/W resonance so even though the flow is hurried around - Something similar took place a couple of times in 1993-1994 even though that example sort of predates the gradient/compression years since 2000. I remember stationary boundaries with ripple lows and overrunning IP events with OES hexagons and dendrites flitting underneath that lasted 15 hours some times. Weird f year... Anyway, I think we're playing with matches for a historic ice storm one of these years. I could see a positive tilted deal with fast flow but the systemic features are locked in and it's days of it...

Do you think the overall velocity surplus might have played destructive interference role?

Dr. Sonja Gupta recently put up an op ed on CNN ... wanna side four months ago at this point? But it fascinatingly discussed the untenable nature of Global Warming .. which probably the difficulty in accepting AGW is thus directly-causally related/precipitating. "...Human beings are just not wired to understand global warming..." This may or may not be true, but I wonder if what this Nakamura is writing is what happens when we mash-up greater than average I.Q. and mental faculties with that untenability - you get this sort of product. Wrong ... yet well-delivered, and thus what's ( interestingly untenable) is how the lay-person's inability to appropriately think critically, on-the-fly, when his information passes inside. There are a lot of dubious disconnects in these statements - ...it's like instead of conflating ( the usual mistake in the denier narratives/mantra), he takes the opposite tact and well ... these systems are less effectually influencing one another.

It's increasingly appearing that variances inside (+)(-) .75 SD are not forcing as prodigiously in the present era/epoch of "anthropocene" and going forward. In fact, I don't think ENSO is going to demo a foot print in the atmosphere at all this year... If so, it'll be coincidence... If it surges beyond some critical threshold where it's can be more effectively coupling ..thus, forcing, sure.

Yeah ... battery powered airlines ... Come fly united! that'll be cool... it would be really neat if there was a discovery of some way in which to manipulate space and time and energy like they do in Star wars or Star trek .. it's like glowing rails and the object lifts off and cruises with no exhaust. 2 growing to 4% according VOX data and so forth ... so, it's like remove all other forms of A VOX contributions - heh. If we can heat all homes and drive all cars and ship all boats without puffin' out industrial farts ... maybe we can then have our lawn mowers and flights without the moral and actual physical price tag of ending our existence on this planet... because I absolutely loath raking lawns!