Typhoon Tip

Nice ribbon on radar associated with the front .. W. PA/W. VA

This may calve off a chunk of my street cred for advancing this, but that ICON solution looks the best to me right now for just the general overview. I mean.. if not including the tedious, electron tunneling microscopy for the purpose of 'carpet surfing' crack nuggets of excitement that we do with these wind-product this and QPF special studies that.. Just the general. The surface pressure and QPF layouts, when looking at the 500H evolution and balancing in the conceptual layout of the general mass-fields involved, appear on point. The secondary detonation/zygote takes place between 18 and 00z over NE VA and then gets sucked up the coastal Plain, then ends up passing over western LI into CT is highly acceptable to me with almost no boundary layer resistance to "tilt" the vortex - I mentioned this earlier about the low moving quicker than normal toward Q-G forcing collocation. I also like the model not falling for the tempting convection potential arcing seaward over the Gulf Stream that the NAM and even the Euro has been fiddling around with using to the change the orbit of Jupiter. It has a triple point - sort of - reflection out there as this thing is cutting toward NH and that's probably closer to reality in my mind. You know... there's an upshot here. This is a great preseason game for ginning up and dusting off the assessment/diagnostic acumen for later on.

Just curious other's opinions ... is that similar to 1993-1994? I remember that season's core cold months as crushingly +NAO much of the time... Well, I'm not sure if it was "crushing" in terms of magnitude, or if it was circumstantially unusual placement of anomalies?? But either way, the result was that the vortex over NE Canada/D. Straight seemed to grow so magnificently that it backed SW and engulfed the Lakes-OV and NE regions, and we "suffered"/"rejoiced" ( depending on one's preference) for it from roughly Christmas through early February. Modified polar-arctic air mass was only interrupted by overrunning events. It wasn't a bad scenario to be in ... It created interesting consequences. For one, OES became an actual seasonal total factor along the coast/shore zones... I think SW suburbs of Boston actually went upper 90's totals and Logan did fantastic that year. I think we were 70s to 80s in totals out my way in Acton/Middlesex Co. Anyway, the idea there is that confluence was a near permanent fixture from the N. Lakes over Ontario, where the vortex'es SW arc was seemingly perpetually impinging upon the sub-polar jet arriving from the MS Valley...It tended to shear out systems but not before vestigial overrunning shredded IP/snow events. It was a 4-8" blitz criege that lasted about 8 weeks. Seemed every 3 days... 5.3" I'm pretty sure Jerry and Steve have reminisced that season in abundance. Heh. Also, what's the skill on these various sources/seasonal outlooks? Like, is Euro better than Ukment better than GONAPS better than Cantmodelanian better than GoFurSelf ...? I don't have a lot of faith in those types of things. I personally still feel that this year will be more EPO ( AO/NAO ) controlled for temperature distribution, and that when modulation occurs back warmer those episodes might be rather impressive, if ephemeral, because of the Hadley Cell invasion into the mid latitudes stuff. In other words, gradient is the new life but let's not go where there be dragons

As was advertised, discussed at length ...all week, limited surface to 800 mb thickness gradients ( laterally ) through New England and nearby coastal waters ( i.e., weak surface frontal structures ) means any surface low will quickly move toward a collocation with the better Q-G forcing at mid levels. There's a lack of antecedent cold air in place. That's why we are seeing these more recent models runs hint more toward gobbling up the secondary low they ( particularly the Euro) develop between PHL and NYC, and then more cohesively focusing a track through CT. This then goes on to a nadir somewhere between there and coastal Maine or thereabouts, end 24 hours, at which point this is already filling... There may be smaller gyres extending SE of that overall structural migration, and I feel reasonably confident that some of these guidance types have been hyper focused on those satellite features - probably based in no small part on the foresaid homogenized lower thickness layout out.. The next physics in the basket defaults to convection based upon those model's specific "Klein and Frisk" sequencing or whatever in the hell it's called that makes them bad for extratropical management... Anyway, this synoptic evolution is not without impacts. The extent is up for grabs. There's a lot of mid level dynamics with this thing as we're all aware...and when we start fiddling with those scenarios ... strange things happen sometimes. I could see a couple of bands of thunderstorms east of the low, arcing up from eastern CT/across much of Mass with an ESE wind underneath and someone over SE Mass getting an EOF spinner out of this... It's not likely, no..but there are possibilities in the fray of this thing that are > than we may think. Also, if a LLJ/inflow core gets into the 925 mb level, neutral buoyancy or even somewhat unstable SST to air along the shore might transfer some of that down - but that's less having to do with surface pg.. For me in particular, I still suggest that the strongest wind impact may be felt in the back side across much of the region. I don't believe based on recent Euro trends ( a very dependable guidance source inside of 3 day leads ) that a stinger is likely to occur, but.. in the spirit of fairness, the low appears to go through some particular mid level VV saturation somewhere between HFD to PWM; folding could be problem S of the Pike for time... But, without that .. this event's back side has very good momentum transfer in CAA kinematics. The other thing about this that isn't necessarily very easy to see, is that model consensus overall has pressure falling "AS" the low moves in. It seems the d(pressure) is taking place at a similar rapidity to the motion of the storm itself. That's an offset where storms motion compensating the restoring forcing, so the wind response may end up less on the front side than the individual pressure contoured charts would readily suggest. This may be less so on the coast, and more pronounced inland. I've seen this hundreds of times. Squeezed contours with fast cloud motion and trees are barely moving insland, while there's power outages in Plymouth. But, ...then the low moves past, and all the deep pressure tries to fill from two overlapping sources: Low moving away = delta(pressure rise) and the isollabric vector looks impressive in this to me; cold mid levels coming into the underbelly of this with temps in the 40s and 50s is an unstably lapse rate scenario. For all this, I would not be surprised if the strongest winds are not on the front side. Creek flooder too -

Is anybody have access to the cyclones phase diagrams on this guy?

As I was just discussing with Wiz' ... I'm thinking more along the lines of elevated convection with sporadic lightning ... I wasn't going "damaging" adjectives my self.

I'm not talking about crispy CB's rollin' out under the tropopause next to clear air side sun on a hot late afternoon... I'm talking sheet lightning and occasional thunder... and heavier convective elements contained (with regional LI's nearing 0 there's instability off the deck) and those extreme height falls while the lower thickness are still supporting 50 F, there's possibility for mixing vertically from that alone - I'd think for the tree-leaner mongering folks might be interested in that sort of thing...

It's funny ..when I know I'm making a more profound insightful weather post, I get 0 "likes" but when I say anything like "big wind" or "snow" even accidentally ... I get three likes and two thankyou yanks. Again...why isn't anyone mentioning thunderstorms in this thing?

Traditionalism speaking but ... it's been awhile since we've had a sold cold rain, autumn spin up - like...years actually. When I was growing up in the region through the ..eh hm, latter part of last century, there was always a wind swept cold rain nor'easter somewhere along the ides of autumn. They were like the season's bar mitzvah - afterward the season is accountable for its own action, haha. But..sort of the unofficial kick off ceremonial rite of passage .. Or how about a shot across the bow storm. And they were always in October, too. I've thought of this month as being remarkably ... unremarkable. Like a prototypical October - to me it seems fitting symbolically anyway, that we're setting this up.

I don't have a problem gusting to 44 mph here and there west of I-95 out in the hills and so forth, no.. . Folks are put off by "pedestrian" semantics ... That doesn't mean no impact - it just means reign in the . We've had storms deeper with actual lapse rates and still mysteriously failed to bring 60 mph wind much west of the immediate coastal zones before. This one, in every sounding I've seen, has some sort of positive region between the surface 100 mb up or so. I also don't like pressures falling at the same time as low rapidly approaches, because that means the approach is negating the mass restoring wind response on the front side, and adding some inversion, 44 mph seems a decent compromise. As far as the arm of the Cape, light house at Marble head or the comms tower atop Blue Hill.. I think the NAMs grid winds in the 35 ... 42 mph range from the west at LGA after the low passes is an indication of potential isoll. wind pulse btw.. I'm surprised no one's mentioned lightning and thunder ... seems with UVM that spiked, QPF that high in short duration, and LI's nearing 0, that's a pretty good indirection for thunder.

Scott's right - .. . not about the sarcasm per se/necessarily, no .. but, this idea of a cold end October ( and even snow not ruled out ...) has been there for a over a week. What interesting is that this look was there more coherently then,... was all but lost, but now returned(s).. We'll see where it goes but I have hypothesis why this has happened so often over the last 20 years with these early conducive ( enough ) cold shots. And, seeing the pattern more than less modulate toward this yet again, in that time range, is not - or should not really be surprising. There is some precedence for it not portending a good winter, too. Because the reason for these early cold shots can also be more independent of the longer-termed solidfied(ing) winter patterns whenever those get around to kicking into gear. Indepedent = 'it can go either way'

I tend to agree here re outside <-- inward influencing ..yeah. On a more globular philosophical level, whether we are infusing TC's or phantom convectively driven faux vorticity packets ... the end result is the same: the modeled depiction of the system gets a boost in either case. Obviously the convective feedback is the less likely of the two, and as to the other ... if we don't see some sort of TC detonation and pretty darn soon than ( I feel ) it is more likely the Euro'esque runs will succeed.

Looking closer at this NAM ... it's certainly eye-candy whether it verifies or not.. . But, more practically ..there is an emergent property about the NAM's solution - it's [ enter euphemism here ] depth, and integration with the mid level cyclonic featuring, I suspect can account for why it is slowing the low down and evolving it into a full on capture/stall scenario. It even Fuji Wara's the surface low while it is trying to fill... I don't believe yet the NAM's total evolution is going to transpire. Something more like the Euro most likely ...with perhaps some caveats and distractions within the frame-work of expected/acceptable error. Having said that... you know, the wind in the NAM may end up being blase anyway? If the front side is sort of "protected" by inversion, then...the low stalls over Worcester for 12 hours like that, the wind in the central region of that vortex is actually going to drop to variable and light for a time... So that's two thirds of the event with wind shirking the barographic layout - that'd get the locals pissed!

Agreed! We've beaten the convective feed-back expectation .. but there's always late comers to the conversation and/or those that .. .have difficulty with this stuff. I'll only reiterate what I was discussing/others noted over the last couple of days, that all models agree that the thicknesses at low levels do not reflect a very rich baroclinic region of lower troposphere where the models are attempting to deepen a surface reflection. I suspect this is causing models with sensitive convective sequencing to go nuts... The best Q-G forcing/DPVA is actually taking place south of the best warm frontal slope, which is interesting. But, that pinches off the warm sector aloft - I suspect - and than you are left with a low that has warm air rampart, so the models "mistake" that as warm core - models like the NAM. But the Euro most undoubtedly has sophistication in its physical make-up *(i.e., superior convective sequencing/integration therein), it's probably got things about it open to critique but... heh, these NAM notions of hyper meso lows rattling around inside a circumvallate are a smoking gun for a surface front starved environment in a model that is defaulting to the next available mechanical processes for focusing a low.

Good! Wind prognostics seems to be an area that is sorely needing some polish .. pressure tendency exceeding the Coriolis/time dependence for 'bending' mass around curvature and all that ( allobarics) ..blah blah... is where/what I'm actually more intrigued about this system for - which may or may not be covered in your evolving efforts? I'm not sure it does, as your description appears focused in lapse rates - where as allobarics deals with restoration of mass in scenarios where pressure tendencies exceed the Coriolis term ( f^2) .. I mean obviously you know this, I'm just prefacing for blw. Based upon personal anecdotal experience ... it doesn't seem wind acceleration is as noted when there is deepening low pressure approaching; it is when it then pulls away that you hear white noise over the horizon in some extreme cases of "isollaric wind acceleration" - and I have noticed that this particular phenomenon has almost nill lead predictive skill. I've seen charts 'look' like an event could unfold... but they seldom do. Then, I'll be sitting there and the power will blink and it draws my attention to the sounds of turbine whirs over the house and I'm wondering if there was a wind headline out of nowhere. We never seem to verify the front-side winds as others have noted, the WAA terms ...yeah, that's probably related. I suspect that backsides have some magic ratio of lapse rate destablization and surface mass restoration, as two separate but comparable metrics. If they "intersect" ( so to speak ) that region has a shot at bending the forest tree lines seemingly out of no where when the col of the low pressure center moves off that region. But that's speculation. This system does begin to look like a chance of iso. wind pulse to me though... As the close approach under a warm advection layer does seem to more abruptly require mass restoration .. and has a shot at abrupt cooling in the 0 to 5 km level when that happens. From a starting point of 970's to 980s mb pressure depths - even in the Euro's shallower depths, I think that's doable - there's a combination of signals super-imposing there. Then we need to ask how much? I mean ... going from light and variable near a low's center to even a mere 30 knots abruptly still qualifies as an iso. wind phenomenon - these speculative prose' do not automatically connote death and destruction, either - ha!

Nah. I say he likely had already wrecked a half dozen St Pauli Girls before that post..

Yeah those seasonal docks and loosely moored camp ground row boats might end up in lyrical lore alright

Hard to know if this is just and artifact of the GFS being the GFS ... but it is true - chilly air masses predominating the end frames of the last many run of the operational version actually. Frankly ...the Euro's been persistently trying to cool N/A off and has -20 C at 850 by Day-la-la range over western JB on the 00z/somewhat so on the 12z isn't exactly arguing with that idea either. It may be worth noting that the EPS had been flagging slightly amplified +PNAP look. The GFS teleconnectors have been doing the typical transition season two step and have been hard to glean a signal out of, but the EPS "might" just be slipping out in time. The MJO/recurve cyclones are not hurting either. interesting. This 18z run is veritable winter west pattern beyond D7 really .. Open wave flow type though, perhaps favored for reasons I'm getting sick of discussing but... having perpetually reloading sub 540 dm thickness spread out over Canad and knifing synoptically into ORD and feeding western Ontario blue bombs on a periodic scheduling is winter either way -

Actually after closer inspecting it looks like it's wrong in a textured way ... giving the illusion of being better because of offsetting errors. Ha. I mean it's still trundling around with which faux center to hone. Its creating convectively induced meso-beta-scaled circulations, and then wave-interfering them with one another, such that the total stays a little weaker... when they may not even exist in reality. and what are we/I doing anyway .. The NAM beyond 30 hours ? we never should have ventured into any discussion and I'm a sucker-

I kind of like this NAM solution better - ... It still has the silliness with the CF low foisting up the eastern limb of the total circulation, but at least it isn't using that as the dominant focal point when all the U/A forcing is back west... It's a better solution at least, tho perhaps not there.

Just so we're semantically clear... by "pedestrian," we ( or I, anyway) am not intending the violate the sanctity of the parade goers in here, and/or NARCAN anyone's weird joy-circuitry they get out of the modeled specter of a storm. For our location area, compared to anywhere else - save NS ..NF, some parts of NW Europe and the Berring archipelago - pedestrian is nasty by any other standards. Pedestrian for us is just not historic. Think of a blustered intersection where rain-coat clad people are fighting a bit with umbrellas trying to turn inside out, but the commute is still doable. That's what I envision as an average/pedestrian system for our region of the world. That said, I take it the 18z NAM shaves some potency off the drug without even looking. Because the sudden dearth of discussion is usually telling - ha. There should be an internet law, that anyone histrionically involved with inflating the significance of something, has to keep posting with substantive analysis when said something is less or else they lose access.

Probably sooner than people think at that... a year with "as much" ice as 2012 will become the anomalous summer - Eyes roll .. ones with dim electrical circuitry in the brain box they serve, but this list of ice loss years provided by Bluewave ? I am pretty sure they were all ahead of early forecasts ... Please correct this if I am wrong - no ego to bruise here - but I was under the impression that we're witnessing acceleration over the earlier scientific reasoning/prognostics from years ago. And if so ... it would be illogical to assume we won't keep accelerating - not without sufficiently compensatory and cogently veracious reasons to do so.

Ssh... Don't NARCAN the mini-van drivers while their toddler's in a square mouthed rage .. because when you jolt them out of their high they can be down right visious

Well, three runs of the Euro, with three different solutions. Oh there's a common theme for inclemency with some kind of storm, of course. But this is also a demonstration of continuity issues. But, seeing as this is the drug of choice for a lot of users in here - we'll leave objectivity out of it.