Typhoon Tip

Yeah the Euro's specifics on this were abysmal ...particularly when it was 3 and 5 days back ... comparing those run times to where we are now... no doubt. Still ( and it may just be dumb luck! ) the Euro's never liked this thing. This thing has never liked 'this thing' Those two observations = the same thing... a paltry result. That's all I'm saying - That aside ... we have to remember that the Euro isn't a bad model ...hello. And, just because it kept this thing on life-support too long and had to finally "find it" in the physics eventually ...doesn't mean it will be necessarily wrong going forward.

The models were forecasting the increasing shear though - that specific aspect should not come as a surprise... I mean, if one chooses to use the models. Despite that, why then did some models attemp "re" intensification ( more like intensification at all...) as it was moving parallel or on the coast? After acceleration commences... that might be a response ( internal physical processing) in the models of having said acceleration lower the storm-relative shear. This sort of 2ndary profile sustaining if not some regain after recurve is observed at times in the past, particularly those system running out SE of NS over the G-string en route to England ...sort of collocated ... They could be moving along at 45 mph at that point, and regaining cane 1 status... I've seen this a lot.

Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out - Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing...

Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?!

Exactly ...my sentiments. I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place. I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that. I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ... It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by - I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore. This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance.

Yeah... agreed - give 'im credit for trying, tho. Heh. but yeah no this is a very deep barotropic air mass... I bet the Bahama sounding over Logan at this point. In fact, I might have mentioned this the other day, that there were semblances in the runs for a "Bahama Blue" pattern ...and well, this is essentially it. Or at least it will be 24 hours from now. I have also opined in the ancient past how it never seems to be that a TC is actually around in the exit region of that jet down S but rats bid if we don't actually have that circumstance ...sort of. Usually, it's a lucky timing issue with a transient trough over WV and a retreating ridge the captures ... Carol and Hazel..etc Donna I think all were not really BB patterns but "got lucky" ?? I think 1938 might have been a late season BBer based on testimonials and accounts of a "...Week of sultry humid weather..." before hand but who knows. Anyway, probably it's just a matter of getting two rare phenomenon to land on the same date, ....like it's twice as rare. Oh if one is a dramatist they prefer it to be a category 3 hurricane and not one COVID coughing its way up the coast both too slow and two week and technically ... not even on the right trajectory to even remotely justify 30 f'n pages of coverage ... but, what's the alternative - right But with ...whatever form this thing has as it moves N, it will be anomalously embedded all quadrants inside a rather sub-tropical transport all the way up. The phase transition may be delayed over climo because of that. This is mostly going to be a failed momentum in the first place, then losing warm water as it fringes land. Even the Bite waters are nearing 80, ...albeit shallow, but really... That's a 'nother thing...I've often wondered if a Cat 4 ever turned the corner in these modern times ...while it is 80 F SST at buoy/station 44025 ... As a tremendous stroke of luck to civility I suppose, the climo for LI express is after Sept 5th ...when we've already shed 5 to 7 F off those shallow numbers.

This things gliding over like a big see-through frisbee ... disconnected and decoupled

Unless people want it to ...and then it "seems" to edge on the side of physical defiance ... sending grad-students to paper anomalies - or by the matrix engineers reasons after the fact and alters reality to maintain the illusion of randomness

this may be the worst circumstances for the weather-model cinema reliance there can be... nothing but denied faux dystopian drama, ...culminating zero reward, followed by a banality on a scale that challenges the very endurance of man - ...rip off, then driven to ennui insanity. Nice - the irony being? that is dystopian. in a Fantasy novel ... this is like the soil-side of a metaphysical providence, one that requires your time to nourish its self, and these sort of rewardless expenditures therein are like the fruits of its garden - and this year is a bumper crop!

that's also 20 mb shallower than the runs this time yesterday placing 960's low there by the UKMEATHEAD this thing's had nothing but tribulations and hardships getting developed all along. It'll probably do a Bob now and RI its way to Cat 3 just because I'm typing this...but, barring the kosmic dyldo having fun ...this is probably getting absorbed in the flow of 15 pages of imagnation - you know .. it's interesting .. it seems that every model has been at least partially right, while none have been correct about the evolution of this system. the Euro has never really like this thing and has been reluctantly playing catch-up to even the consensus blend... And while it presently is still stronger - even as an exposed wound - then those open wave Euro runs from a couple days ago, ...the fact that it is well short of other guidances, which had upon occasion had category 1 hurricanes, seems to give it some respect. so in contrast to that...the more developed variations were right to be less conservative - they just went way overboard.

Wow... I was just looking at the 00z Euro's coarser synoptic progression ( 24-hrly intervals..) over at PSU E-wall... and noted that thermal ridge bulging up along and astride the eastern seaboard at 48 hours ...and immediately I thought, that must be a sneaky very torrid day on Monday. So, I went to Pivotal and looked at the 2-meter DPs and they are indeed between 75 and 80 ... in the Euro! A model that - at least from my experience - tends to be dry in the BL ... man ... meanwhile we bathe, the 850 mb overhead is 19C over Worcester nearing 00z, Monday evening. Jeez, with DPs in the 2-meter of 74 to 78 F all over SNE... ?! zomb...

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-canadian-ice-caps-scientific.html

Shit I thought today was going to be cooler ... 'nough so to run more comfortably. F! it's 88.9 here... DP of 62 .... I'm up to 100 miles riding bike in three days ... I guess I can do it again but I'd really like a nice 6 miles run without my balls flopping between my knees

Lol - sorry for the pop cycle headache.

heh...it's one of those deals where if it stays over water it probably is a tad stronger up this way... but if it moves over land, the models will hold on to too much structure up the coast.

It looks a looks a little healthier this hour...

It's funny ... just last week how that tenor was diametrical to this sort of dance-around a sombre fireside poetry. It was then so gleeful, the song praised in lust for tortured heat in August, and activating tropics .. There just seemed indeterminable wealth in dystopian nourishment to feed this odd neurosis - dopamine when looking at weather charts that implicate relative dread. Now? throwing hands - ... the most observable difference? No hurricane... banal heat. Basically, no drama. Seems pretty much cause-and-"affect" Next week? ... I predict a 70 .. 80% chance that the tenor will have vagaried right back the other way. It seems there is a separate scoring that is not based upon model verification that is crucial in this "hobby" ( which I quote, because I suspect it's more than merely a hobby for many that regular - ) that is emergent. It's not weather-driven, though rooted in the same lust for drama - sure. It is a transference? It's taking the want of the dramatic expression of Nature, and creating a joy-reliance, more so based upon these modeling technologies and the virtual impressionist art of implications they may paint for the various features they illustrate out in time... And we become fixated on it - that's when it becomes a little ... probably "unhealthy" is the best word for that. Before 30 some-odd years ago... this did not exist. Yet, 'nowadays' we are inherently allowing some random aspect that's never been a part of human history and evolution, become a guide in determining the future of one's life. Fascinating really.. But, when the models seem to dwindle the drama... normalize affairs and impressions of the mid and extended ranges down to something less that a half a single standard deviation ( positive or negative ) that becomes the rainy day. It's almost like in that particular scale, 0 standard deviation modeled virtual tapestry ( which isn't even real mind us...) triggers a 10 standard deviation anomaly in internal angst if not definable as sadness ... Inverse proportionality

next ...

Seems over-done with pressure rising and a rapidly weakening system... I wrote about that earlier... the frictional effect of land and slowing would force the wind off the deck - particularly in weakening profiles. Yet that product looks willy-nilly mixed right plumb to the surface and I don't think that right .

Euro has had three different solutions in three cycles or so... as others noted. This is just another idea really -

Yeah... courtesy of Ryan H.'s nice statistical overview of New England cases, there is a typical layout in the 500 mb height anomaly distribution ..where positive orients from eastern Canada arcing around the Maritimes and subtended below that, there is often a weakness in the lower OV...usually centroid over the midriff easter cordillera. The TCs move with the circulation conducted by these maestros .. up the east coast, but the positive anomaly blocks the eastern turn such that it manages the whole trek and strikes. The 96 hour EPS' mean from 00z "sort of" depicts that... The 500 mb does not offer enough of that last minute/latitude block to prevent the turn. That suggests a parabolic miss...albeit, uber close. It may clip the Hatteras ... It wouldn't take much of a reposition of the positive height anomaly lurking E of CC and S of NS to get this to Boston before the east turn, and probably needs another couple of runs to really gain confidence that/those crucial details are necessarily being handled right

Just my opinion... but it's easy to envision/imagine a rapidly redeveloping or newly developing surface circulation somewhere immediately astride the N/NE coastal region of the Island of Hisp. That mid level presentation is folding cyclonically now more readily in the last couple of hours ... some models have been suggesting that - including the GFS actually - so perhaps we finally are on the verge of at last witnessing an actually TC emergence here.

I wouldn't mind seeing them all ranked ... like going back 300 years, re-analyzed when/where in history it is necessary to do so in order to complete that list. I notice right off the bat just eye-ballin' those, four out of seven "ratter years" are just since 2000. Anyone with a modicum of both an inquisitive nature ... sharing headspace between questions and a tendencies to maintain a general sensitivity as to the "nature" of the present geological era of the Global environment ( and it is proposedly denoted the "Anthropocene" by the way), might be inclined to wonder if that 'recency' is really having as much to do with the ENSO, at all... Perhaps more to do with the taboo elephant in the room narrative - We all know what that is... Yup, global warming may be anachronistically skewing the assumed cause-and-effects. I mean, if the ENSO becomes a lesser a physical drive in a warmly encased system - that's just physics... I'm tipping my hypothesis hat. I don't think the ENSO events are as instructive in the governance of the total Global circulation paradigms ...as an "increasingly failed realization" because the total integral of the ocean-atmospheric couple system is warming ... Rudimentarily: gradient from point A to point B dictates how everything in reality exists ... in reality, including reality itself. From electrodynamic quantum scales all the way to the faults in our gods .... if A doesn't move toward B, there is not A or B .... If the atmosphere is warm over a warm ocean, that atmosphere does not represent a response to the warm ocean; if the atmosphere is cold, it does more so... Really simple actually... Anyway, there was a super Nino some 5 clicks back that did not register the typology of Global impact zones nearly as much ... and ...a lot of seasonal forecasts are failing more so ( that I appears to me...). I suggest reliance and assumption need to change; because in ENSO reliances that I feel folks are getting bamboozled by because the machinery of the atmosphere isn't being as readily levered by the these ENSO variances...

Ha! Yeah.... sorry ...don't mean to come off as Dr No-ish or know-it-all either... It's just that since I tend to pride myself and go out of my way to seek objectivity as a goal/acumen, that means I am quite likely going to default sound like a party pooper or debbie downer. Just being in the room ...heh. By virtue of being proximal to the "ebullient willingness" of guidance interpretation ( eh hem...) that too oft permeates these bus-stops of weather-related cinema seeking social media pass-times .. I get to be the asshole. I'm sure there is that same tendencies over at Earth Quake Central, and Cosmic Ray Burst Just When She Finally Say Yes ... forums too - haha Tongue-in-cheek aside... If it gets above some developmental/momentum threshold ... mm, willing to guess that it exceeds expectation. Not sure by how much ... either 1 mph or 40 ... but it would not surprise me. Particularly when it turns right and heads up... it'll be passing over some of the richest integrated oceanic heat content on the planet...lengthwise for a time, too... as in, not merely passing across the axis of the g-string. Folks, need to remember, the warm thong of the west Atlantic is oriented S-N from southern Florida to about Cape Hatteras... So, turn right and heading lengthwise along that does offer some intrigue ...as the shear profiles presently modeled appear favorable. The storms motion relative to ( SRS) is very low ... It just looks like a scenario for Bobian deepening so experimental thinking but we'll see.. .