Typhoon Tip

I think we knew ... I mean ...if the entire canvas of tele's up and changes than we'll talk. Until that happens ... from where I'm sittin' the original storm idea for next week is on the wrong side of the hemispheric history.

Right right - ... In fact, there have been three ice ages in the last 540 Million years ...in which the ice caps spread farther S than the 50th parallel, and I'm sure in each one of those ..which tended to last many eons once they set up... there were June 21 snow storms pretty regularly at our latitude. So, paleoclimatology or not ... it's always fun to think how relative it all is. Btw - I was reading a fascinating recent geological discovery that exposes a pretty clear red-handed culprit for those ice-ages... It has to do with rifting in the tropics ... and it was particular to the tropics, too. There's evidences for rifting events in the northern and southern latitudes, too, but those were less coherently correlated. But, what happens is ... fresh oceanic rock is foisted above sea-level, exposing to C02... reaction occurs and sequestration suddenly fluxes anomalously high, and atmospheric C02 content of those eras plummeted... ice age occurred. They think the sun and air and land worked together to create carbonaceous trapping of C02.

I'm thinking it's a "bursty" affair until perhaps 7 pm through ...1 ...2 in the morning or so. During which, there might be a but more cohesive homogenized rad appeal, with more general scoped two-level greens over central/NE NE Seems this third in the serious Lakes S/W will be fusing in during the afternoon and evening and we're even seeing a bit of a modeled intensification of the surface reflection ... as it whirls there anchored E of PSM ... probably because of that

36.7/36 ..mist/god end this f'n winter!

Yeah O.T. but ... ya get that sense of it using that thing. But, it leads me to curiosity as to how it will handle summer boundary layer meteorology... So now really off-topic, but considering how atrocious the current operational GFS is ... what it was doing through warm spells last summer, and also... how horribly it has been with hygroscopic thermodynamics in any season (for that matter), should give folks pause as NCEP prepares to replace it with a model that has that as its ancestral root -

Great! now all you need is for this to actually become a storm ... not some pallid bullshit imitation of one whirling about in tepid gradients - I just I dunno this strikes me as a typical spring jaggov from the models where ominous appeal ends up all at 500 mb because seasonal normalization of the lower troposphere played a bigger role than [probably] anyone considered it would. That ... and I also believe we have some transitive wave interference from that diving impulse in the Lakes.. I suppose it can and probably will get better later on ...

I'm always gazing off in a moment contemplating this ... how it's late summer sun right now - for warm weather enthusiasts, spring is a brutal butt brusin' season.

Relative bust more than a 'positive bust', though the latter is semantic/vernacular of off-air and/or weather-related social media anyway... But, positive bust has more of a left field connotation about it - as in ..blind sided. Dec 23 1997 2-5" of wiper blade glop ... turns into 12-20" over a considerably large area of a snow type that was occurring at < 26 F. Today's event was always marginal and is largely playing out that way... But the run up was coming along with a larger uncertainty envelope. ... We'll see how things coalesce through the evening (if they do) but right now this is a pedestrian event - I'm actually a little surprised by the lack of cohesiveness on radar all throughout the north east with this thing. I firmly believe the S/W diving through the Lakes and crashing into the backside of this is interfering with this system. Originally ...last week, we were hemming and hawing over whether there would be a phase between Lake S/W and intermediate stream S/W ...which at the time, the Euro was nadda. The FV3' more than less began with that about 5 ... 6 days ago.. Of course, the rank and file of the Flies in here made fun of it... greased into doing so because the Euro still insisted keeping the intermediate southern wave separate ... and progressing the whole look off into the Altantic... Then, about 3 days ago, a most intriguing thing happened ... It was the Euro that would acquiesce, a fact that I've heard no one pay homage to (as an aside). But, by then ...most models were on board for the Lakes phase... and it was game on. But, during the last 3 days ... this late arriving S/W has been getting more aggressive and I'm not sure if it has really been discussed. I think ...largely ignored. But, it's diving in and screwing with the physics of the original Lakes S/W with the intermediate stream interplay... You can see that on the 00z and 06z GFS initializations ..and advancing those charts ahead through 30 hours, rather nicely, how this party crasher is acting like a kicker, and lifting the original phase out really quickly and ultimately disrupting matters. I think it also didn't help that the llv baroclinicity was pretty amorphous going into this thing ... owing to sun annihilation for days without a fresh polar source, no doubt.

Kind of pissed I can't see the FRH grid… Kind of a fan of that product

Interestingly...it's also not that QPF laden over eastern regions... Ah, this is the 700mb level low pile driven the CD on this one... huh

Regular .... block of shit KM NAM ... came in a lot colder for the interior. In fact, ALB with 20" almost in that solution given the FRH thermal sigma levels/balanced against the synoptic evolution, and 03/03/00 over Logan means that at least it could be snowing pretty good in the ORH elevations... ah man -

This from a site's crowning prevaricator ... You make Trump look like the Pope with your analysis ... about anything... I'm sure I have things to apologize for in life; coming in here and dealing with your shenanigans however for fun and or not ... isn't really one of them.

Shit of course.... I just checked the CDC silly cartoon bar-graphs that site provided to the uninvited ... and funny the EPO is modestly negative out of nowhere. Meh...probably just seasonal shifting f'n with base-line

OH of course not... I was just making exaggerated examples to make the point... anywho, ... I just want to also remind folks that this present system was at one time progressive and flat in the Euro and it was in fact that FV3' model that led the way here. I mean, not with details necessarily of course. Having said that, there is a big difference ( to me ). At risk of being paradoxical ... being someone that is teleconnector reliant ... the PNA is flattening pretty dramatically and there doesn't appear to be any other hemispheric/super synoptic forcing ... If anyone has any other projections on that I'm all ears...

I understand all that ... you're missing my point. If the technology says -8 at 925 mb now, for then... I'm wondering if it'll be -1 when we get there ... If you are already taking seasonal variance into consideration regarding models tending to be too cold loaded ...and still somehow coming up with that -8 than okay - ..please enlighten me. Otherwise, if the models have -8 now, for then, ...then ain't that cold. Sorry -

Well .. you're talking about hygroscopic/thermodynamic effects in situ to precipitating into an x-y-z air mass.. I'm speculating ..based upon years of observation, that the entire thickness tapestry of the models won't be as low when push comes to shove... Put it this way, if the entire medium was say 1/4 SD lower, then when we got there, the assessment would make more sense to me. but hell... It's snowed in May in 1977 ... Know what would be fun... I'd like to take all the modeling initializations from those outre events of the distant past and fire off a Euro cycle and see what these modern tools present us with.

I'm surprised folks jumped at loading this thread with posts before asking whether the last 10 days of this month matter - I guess they don't... No wonder we end up with 90 chapter novels by the 15th's-

Unfortunately ...that "perfect air mass" is useless in any model at this range ... it's a moving target. If the models see an air mass as x ... it ends up being x' at this time of year. ... which, could still be enough - I mean, I'd feel better about that statement of yours if it went sompin' like 'is : "Man I would give a lot for that to work out next week. If verification of the air mass can compensate for the models ... always being too cold at at the end of March, it would end up perfect for this time of year to get something like that. " haha just goshin' but still... I do try to modulate for those blanket biases during transition seasons.

Just think ... in the multiverse theory ... it is plausible that there is a parallel realm existing along the same time lines as this for which we call reality. In that reality ... the GGEM is the only model that is either employed in the daily grind of operational Meteorology ... but also is what fills the screens with the cinema the neurotic dopamine seeking weather-related social media zealot depends upon ... And right now, they are discussing if those hurricane wind warnings might just bust too strong -

in deference to what ...

This is bombing in GOM ... and probably as PF has been gloating relentlessly for three days or more .. .yeah, it's an elevation event. The question is whether this can back bands down around the termination arc of the CCB on the southwest flank ... as a plausible now-cast correction - I think folks should be focused there if they're askin' for a mercy reach-around during this thing.. That way, if something more happens ...you get the upshot of being pleasantly surprised. btw, just kidding pf ... But, at no fault of yours at all... you do make one want to see this thing end up SE of you so you get nothing just for the schadenfreude - ...heh, that would AWEsome...

OH ...NH ... right.. For some reason I was lost to recall where that was in SE Mass ... heh

...which po'dunk single strip weeds growin' in the failed tar-cracked runway of an ap is that one again -

mm I don't trust that latter mid range warm-up at all ... Man that could too easily ...probably will, end up with either a BD in the area the whole way or just an ablated ridge top with a front aligned from Indy to TTN in general

haha... I love watching people eat April fecal matter -