Typhoon Tip

You're too sensi man ... d-bag..? whatever brah, it was sarcasm... get a grip, yeah

Anyway, there are two things ( imho ) that need to happen to bring this threat back more so: -- the wave coming off the Pac needs to get stronger like it was three days ago in the Euro; it's been weakening in all guidance cycles slowly ever since. -- the ridge on it's heels needs to pop higher in latitude, such that it would get a constructive interference from the larger --> short wave length scales, and help carve things out...tipping the flow more S-N along /off the EC and that would change things storm-favorable. I see the first of these two as being more plausible than the latter... The reason being, it's more likely that smaller scaled stream mechanics associated with a S/W will be missed, before the integration of the large scale ... where any such errors tend to get absorbed into the mean; of which the ridge amplitude in the west is constructed. Also, I'm noticing the ridge has 50 to 70 kt winds curving/arcing over it's top in southern Manitoba - I hate to say, that's a speed anomaly for that flow construct and is probably having an neggie interference in the transitive sense. It's ablating the ridge from getting N, which then transitively effects the digging potential down stream... Then, if the weaker polar stream Pac ejection really remains sort of middling ... case close. It's not over all optimistic, no, just not impossible. 90% sure of a system evolving... very low confidence it will be in time for us - but reserve the right to change my mind should we start seeing the above two concerns accommodate.

You're angry ..so you didn't read objectively - that is not what I said... "climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ." is an opine and not a statement of claim to a 'new norm'.. If other Mets violently disagree with climate change, they should be stripped of their credentials. And that man told me he agrees the winter seems like a climate move north and got the tongue-in-cheek reference to Philly for it's conferred value without having that be some means to abase the implication - admitting climate change is really what that's about when people do that. That's not him. Knee jerk reacting in a way that protects the what folks don't want to lose - and it makes me want to jam an inferno down people's f'n throats.

No rabbit hole Only nimrods and toe-lining malcontents

Why would that be temporary - think about what is going on with the world, get a grip with what that means and where logic leads ...check back in with the answer to that S.A.T. question. I mean, it's a matter of time ...but it's coming. Look, it won't be a smooth curved transition - no. We'll probably have several cold snowy years...and/or at min, intra period spells, but over the long term mean we'll see gradual reduction in the occurrences of said cold and snow; that is concomitant with a warming climate moving winters ever north. Having said that, this does not account for ... comet impacts, or some super terrestrial thing by sun, orbit, comet or asteroid ...etc...etc... if the present influences remains unchecked,

Yup... Harvey Leonard bemoaned that same point to me in an email last week ... paraphrasing to a close approximation: I've never seen a winter like this for combining warmth specifically with lack of even "close calls" or even "near misses" since mid December. ( I just looked again and it's pretty much spot on..) So yeah, I'd call that a spot on echo to your own observations ...and one that I happen to agree with in both renditions. Heh. Ugh. I mean, it's one thing to deal with a ratter, but this one was transcendence of something far worse in terms of unlikeliness actually taking place .. all the time. Having said that... you know I was thinking... There really is less difference between this year in 2011-2012 from a step back larger perspective. I mean, we can get into whether detailed departures and what not match or serve as analog but they won't really - I mean from a 'gestalt' look. Both years had an early snow, and then nadda - period. With one exception: 2011-2012 may have actually had more 'near misses'... This event, however, that is likely to foist just too far east, qualifies as a near miss - it's kind of a separate rub that it would be interesting if not morbidly fantastic, to actually witness this season exit this way; yet we cannot even get that much to succeed. Hell really discovers its new dimensions - A bottom line, brass-taxes sort of comparative analysis begs the similarity. Whether we put down a big snow event on October 31st or Dec 2nd ...that's irrelevant in nature? Both are early, both never saw shit until the following year. I mean obviously we have March to get through and even thru Easter is fair at our latitude ( as difficult as the latter may seem to even visualize in this unrelenting abuse) but, I opined/bemused in spring of 2015 that with 150 to 300% of the annual snow achieved, we could go four years in a row under-achieving and still end up above normal for the 5 year mean. You and others have also opined, we are 'due' ( a statistical term I actually hate but that 'sides the point ) for a ratter.. The problem I have with the due -argument is that it's like comparing Ali to Tyson.. Two disparate techniques spanning entirely different cultures of the sport? It makes any comparison dubious. Only using that metaphorically here, the climate of 1955 through 1985 ... was changing, moreover, that change has been 'accelerating' since 1985... so, if 'due' is based on a background climate signal, that signal should by logic be increasingly entropic and therefore, less reliable. So there cannot be any 'due' ... I guess what I'm backing us into here is that we just simply got absolutely butt-banged period... And, seeing as the climate change shit is trying to move Philly to our doorstep faster than most admit ..anyway, that's not helping.

Post Feb 15 ...certainly so post March 1 begins the time of year where the MOS will probably bust cool by a one to three ticks on days like this.

I can't say enough ... that ridge position/axis being roughly over the western Dakotas makes an east pass unclimatologically sound ... The ridge in the blend/means/trend is actually really rather perfect for these amplifying OV things to drive a realization closer/SE of ACK ... It's a wonder, if the flow velocity issues are trying to pull/stretch this east of numerical suggestion... because that foisting thing when the ridge is still back west like that is ... It can happen... I mean anomalies relative to anomalies happen..but, seeing as 100 hours is still time to correct things, I'm not sure this is over just yet. I don't care either way though - if it misses...it misses. If the n/stream turns out utterly over assess up to this point ...than we're out either way.

It's interesting if one is a tedious morphology follower across cycles tho - the cyclonic pressure pattern is opening up and expanding farther NW around 100 hours, but the centroid low is kept way out there... Filling in QPF too; I still don't think we are "not what you want to see" mode quite yet ...Considering the source for these wave spaces, there's room to fiddle with this and it won't take much at all to get this where folks want it.. well, if they "want" something reasonable that is ..haha

It's got better structure with a negative tilting/cyclonic tip to the 500 mb trough axis as it approaches the EC at/around 100 hours ... so, it may be in flux. Course there's always rooting for the underdawg, huh hahaha

That 00z GEFs spread should have sent shivers - literally ...as the envelope of uncertainty was all situated on the NW oblonged envelope of solutions, with some very deep members. The 06z was in the frame-work of noise. that 00z spread to me shows we could easily get a run here now, sooner or later that really brings the 968 wood to 20 naut mi SE of ACK ... You really can't looked at this with Operational intent and not go, hmm

I have a feeling this nearer term deal is going to come in ginormous on a run or two, then wax and wane thru Thursday depending on what cycle drops the ball out over the Pac. It may actually be a nod in favor of "trusting" ( ) the Euro more because of it's normalization and correction scheming supposedly curtailing permutations from screwing up trends and reality ...so it is assumed.

I think there's two events on the 12 -day radar ... this one presently being followed in guidance, but then give it another week...and we may be seeing something similar repeat. There's a pretty obvious signal there for a transitory reload maybe 3 or 4 days later. Not high confidence ... but, that operational GFS thing has several ens members also hinting at new amplitude into the east around D11

I don't think the NAM has ever NOT looked ominous at 84 hours regarding a butterfly fart either - We kid about the futility of the ICON ...but where there may be a slight ever so slight scintilla of hope in any one ICONic solution beyond 20 minutes from now, there is DEFINITELY no reason or purpose in adding carbon footprint to CC crisis because they're sending energy into the CRAYs to run that f'n meaningless beyond 48 hours. I do however disagree that < 48 the model is useless because if one knows how to incorporate its biases, it does have it's uses in shorter terms given certain dynamic scenarios. It's also very good as a convective initialization tool, but that's more relevant to the warm season and/or Plains.

That in of itself is true, but caution not to think that's some boundary on plausible morphologies et al going forward. There's a world out side of the intra-regional spacing of the wave/stream interaction/smaller scales of the modeling depictions - and that outside exertion is not faux factor-able. It's real...and a correction of even subtly bigger western ridge and stronger/steeper diving NP n/stream wave ...all that has nothing to do with the present finite scaled stream dynamical interplay as modeled at this time. I'm not inclined to 'lean' toward any direction and I don't see how an objective perspective could.

Absolutely...yeah. At the end of the day, this isn't going to do much here without the fine-tuned, less margin for error timing of phase - unfortunately... Which means I'm annoyed and put off by it. Because we're asking this season to do that? That's like sending a Down's Syndrome to a Mensa meeting. But... in the interest of fairness... the seasoning ending relaxation and climo for doing so was discussed beginning a couple weeks back and here we are...so, if this piece of dung winter is going to save any face at all, considering all ... this and maybe later next week will be our last guns in the fight.

It's both ... A bigger physical presence in the n/stream will/would tip the flow more S-N and anything in it at that time, ends up north... Part and parcel and necessary in wave interaction/fusion and eventual phasing is that the wave spacing is shared, and that above is how it first initiates. But like I said, the velocity is too fast escaping the SE as sort of a lead separate limiting factor; and that's something also that needs to be overcome. It's basically absorbing the s/stream like pretty much everything that's been shearing do to too much wind speed all season long..It's just not doing "as much" but it's still there. Be that as it may, there's enough there to initiated a cyclogen response, but... that same velocity is also trying to rip that low out to sea before the n/stream has a chance to catch up to it. -- to much wind speed limits 'room for error' in phasing -- n/stream wave mechanics need to come in a little stronger to help pull the total flow structure NW out ahead of the NP dive; it would also help that the backside western ridge bulging would actually happen here. these aren't deal breakers at this time. The first point can be over come by the second one, but I did notice that n/stream was weaker across the board by a smaller margin/panache, and th result of SE track bias fits that for the above reason.

Fun aside, the polar stream wave space that serves as the 'n/stream' capturing device in this whole thing is careening across the "super dense realized data arena " over the N/Pac... This run overall was remarkably in agreement among the available guidance I've seen. Even the ensemble means don't look very philosophically challenging of one another at all... And all, miss the region by a pubes to the SE and probably like always happens on Earth, a region that's been getting lucky continues to do so until the bitter end... NS/NF. The hint is in the lead paragraph... The last time a 'well-sampled' wave space over the west seemed to really matter was way back leading the "Boxing Day" storm...That one was all but lost SE as a near miss for multiple cycles, actually ...and then came storming back in guidance with like 30 hours to spare. Partly sunny/cirrus --> blizzard at less than J.Q. Public can get head wrapped around a forecast, speed. I'm not sure assimilation is still that primitive -and it really wasn't too terribly so back in 2010 compared to now but a decade is getting old. That was 10 f'n years man! wow So, I'm now improving my outlook from cautiously optimistic to optimistic for a bigger/important cyclone occurrence - but am unfortunately forced to erode back to less than cautiously optimistic that cyclone's impact here will be very extraordinary - that by fairness and full-disclosure allows for moderate impact, but that's pedestrian to me by definition. If en masse there is a 150 miles NW bump more unilaterally in the guidance, than we can chalk it up ( most likely ...) to data sparseness and sampling idiosyncrasies out over the open expanse of the Pacific and perhaps more optimism for greater impact will be justified at that time. One thing I am noticing though... ahead of the s/stream wave as it's vestigial spacing is rippling through the deep south... the flow is still cranking along at greater than 50 kts well out ahead escaping the lower MA out over the Atlantic, at mid level geostrophic vectoring. That's not really good for s/w ridging components; those need to roll out and helps feed back on meridional slowing, and thus helps feed in the n/stream fusion etc..etc and way she goes. But with those velocities, they are ablating/taking away the lead roll-out ridging, and that may be feeding back on keeping the track SE of the initial s/stream wave; then, the n/stream being slightly ( by just that much ) weaker than prior runs, it doesn't have quite enough mechanics to do it alone. If a strong n/stream comes in a diving fashion from the NNW, it will 'tip' the flow more S-N orientation off the EC and that would also help pull the s/stream low ignition back NW too. Lot of moving parts that won't really be assessed very cleanly in this situation until probably 84 hours out in time. But, the general gist of an important cyclone: that much is say 70 or 80th percentile. Know what would be funny though, just for morbid laughter? A NAVGEM absolutely no low result - ho man the scale and degree of apoplexy.

It squeezed the ridge entering the longitude over the Plains southwest just a little ..and so the whole-scale structure looks synoptically 'ticked' progressively stretched...which is code for bullshit. It's a nuance of the GFS' native bias being allowed more proxy on a run that's probably not outfitted with the same gunk as the 00z and 12z - that's what it my science-fiction engine sees, anyway. That said, this could be the ultimate butt-bone in a winter prison of tormented hell if this thing verifies as a big deep nasty bomb 50 too far SE for anything other than flurries NW of a cat paw event on the Cape. The winter took it all...then, takes it all -

It’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows where the phase versus no phase members must beIt’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows were the phase versus no phase members must be

Yeah ... I was just helpin' the operational interpretation - word My opinion hasn't deviate from this morning actually ... the ensemble mean of the EPS is buffer there. Also, some individual GEF members approached extreme scenarios, while the mean only vaguely deviated - if another couple members add to that, we'll see that shift begin there too.

Because the first order of intelligentsia to Meteorologists and informed hobbyists that want to be taken seriously ... is to look at ever situation uniquely. Trend is important, but it doesn't dictate the script -

If anyone has any question ...the reason the GFS isn't annihilating the upper MA up through eastern NE is purely a function of bi-passed phasing ...more probably owing to it's progressive bias. But, does have some merit based upon two prognostic philosophies: 1 ... speed contamination is verifying all season and appears to also at minimum be vestigial in this and prior runs. Trend is a checklist item 2 ... the other guidance' are also showing slip partiality with the capture slow down scenario. The 00z Euro was the most proficient run to date, but the 12z ( pun intended ) slipped toward less by a small measure, but enough to limit the event to some sort of dubious looking Norlun with the unusual circumstance of having a closed low embedded inside - that's not likely and probably means the solution's in flux.. This run 18z run is ...well, the 18z run of the GFS for one so axe-head that, but it simply outpaces the northern stream and slips the southern stream and it's associated surface wave partially passed, such that by the time the subsume really takes place the flow is stretched and the capture is way east. Meanwhile, the ridge axis being over the Dakotas during those shenanigans is a red flag that the whole baggage is indeed too stretched and likely to pan west . I'm also noticing there is a tendency across the board to pull the surface pressure contours west in ensemble means some, that usually means there some contention on the western side of the envelope pull the track cluster/mean.

Mm 144 hour Euro's 500 mb is flawless, tho - It just pivots around SNE's lat/lon like that... yeah, whatever - I'm not deviating at all based that look. jesus - still cautiously optimistic

Tru ... Hey I’m still cautiously optimistic – and the way this winter has gone? I think I’ll be fully on board when I’m standing knee-deep in snow two days later