Typhoon Tip

This is just for the general reader: This is like the new normal ... "+1" ... Obviously, there's a more exacting decimal value... but, with the background global thing ...every location everywhere runs a flat probability, however large or small, of averaging above normal, for every interval of time being evaluated. GW inuits that is a positive result. That's basically just the math of everywhere being an climate curve with an upward angled slope. Relative to that slope... a 0.0 month is actually below normal (hmm ...that'll scratch some heads). So what I'm getting at as is sort of a philosophy. It might actually be useful to determine with better sophistication what the slope of the curve's trajectory is based on the last 20 years ...and to the best tech can offer, prognosticated going forward. Then, one can assess two distinct forms of above(below) normal: One that is a comparison between results vs the scalar climate numbers; and one that is relative to that curve. That's the more important metric in my mind... The GW stuff has it's threat ... but in nature, it's always the acceleration that gets you...in every system in reality.. A region may get used to +1 ...then ... gets whacked with a +3 ...may mean something extraordinary and unusually stressing may have taken place. We live in a world where climate models predict the increased frequency of deadly heat waves ...and well, guess what...we're getting them. Not in southeast Canada, the U.S. eastern Lakes and New England for whatever reason... but the world is suffering these. These events exceed the background slope of the curve's upward trajectory and are such acceleration events.

I dunno if that D10 Euro chart from 00z was intended for sarcasm/ribbing or what, but ...the 850 mb chart for that same time has 20 to 21 C air ribbon/plume streaking up over SNE in a narrow warm sector! So...yeah, either way.. Torch look... Hey Wiz' ... Saturday is emerging somewhat as a convection contender. There is strong evidence using the freebie/granular charts alone, for a bit of an EML expulsion to arc up over the ridge ...N of the Lakes at 48 hours, and pluming down over all of New England Friday. That's a hot day! ...probably the hottest of this stretch with 18 or 19 C and what gradient there is ...offshore. But, come Saturday, a coherent dent ripples along through eastern Ontario and it's dragging a decent mid/upper air wind acceleration right into that stagnated elevated mix layer. Just for these canvased parameters, that looks like a day to watch. Limitations would be...does that S/W up there trend a little flatter.. if so, there's probably still too much CIN ... part of the idea is that heights along the ridge rim fall just below a threshold ..signaling some tendency for the EML to expose lapse rates to what is probably still very warm/sultry air mass in place...etc..etc.. But if that gets less, than naturally the risk reduces. Right now ...I'd say NNE is under the gone either way in that over all evolution.

Heh... that's the snark that leaped to my mind too - ... like, really - 'cotton' okay

This is a simply not a summer hemisphere ... ... This below is February in July - what''s funny about that comparison is that even in July... "February" can't seem to happen without being too steeply saturated in gradient wow

good call by Scott... sharp clearing from the N. wonder if we'll be in an out of that band this week... Seems the ridge doesn't really want to commit to a rim very far N of ORD-BOX latitude which in addition to all ... may also be a convective conveyance

yeah ...saw that too - it's why I'm not willing to "86" ( pun intended...) the MOS numbers entirely. It's just that I saw a lot of upper 80s and am wondering at what point to pull the plug on that.

AMOC flipped... no question. It's been suggested by the multi centennial curve .. .nesting periodicities on the order of 30 to 40 decades between warm and cool oscillations, that we should see the AMOC flip to a tripolar north Atlantic and that's prevalent at this time/the current SST distribution is probably not a mere coincidence. Related to.. cold water is cutting back west N of the G-string ... N of the continental shelf out there... Nick mentioned something a couple weeks ago and it may be related, but the haline cycle could be impacting the fluid viscosity of the ocean due to huge exhaust flow rates off Greenland melt/fresh water. A conveyor weakener..where even fractions of mass changes can and may be exacerbating the anomalies, too. Either way, the -NAO is correlated ... which again, time and study to positively link it to that - and it's a hard science because the NAO can be negative when the -AMOC or +AMOC... It's a matter of frequency - ------- Perhaps Jerry, ...so far, appears to be a pretty significant temperature bust. Oh ...it's not stopping governments or anything ha, but.. unless something changes, ALL models busted pretty badly with the ceilings ...which is a factor directly impacting temperatures. We'll see how the afternoon evolves. Thing is... the MOS didn't get it right either. If it was going to be this inundating, ... heh.

https://www.aol.com/article/weather/2019/07/01/freak-hailstorm-buries-guadalajara-mexico-in-3-feet-of-ice/23760878/?ncid=txtlnkusaolc00000992%3Fncid%3Dtxtlnkusaolc00000992&fbclid=IwAR2a1CRnvhFKzuy-6hSNmAOIP7TdAPzkP1O7LcEEN-Hiuta8pg81-f1i35o#

-NAO does not correlate the same way for New England in JJA btw - ...Brian alluded to this, and if you look at his product's details you can see how that look could supply us with plenty of very warm potential ... also, MCS/convection chances. The 582 dm isopletch is not usually how you run cold air through here. And probably of more importance, have the mean that high means there are members that are sweltering in there too. Re the D10 Euro,... the EPS and Euro rarely deviate that much so I'm not sure ( but suspect less confidence ) in that one model cycle meaning anything, seeing as both broke continuity to flash that look. We'll see if it has legs but ... one may not be so quick to pounce on a look merely because you want it. Just sayn' ...

GFS is either going to look very good ... or, not very good this time Sunday when looking back at MOS performance this week. Haven't seen the 12z Euro operational run ...but the synoptic evolution for the week across the 00z run painted a hot picture for the 4th and 5th. 90s those two days... Now, I didn't see any 'cloud' products from that model - in fairness to debate, it may be muting temps. However, with amplifying mid and upper heights and WSW component, the climo on those parametrics is usually less ceilings/more insolation. Contrasting ...the 12z GFS MOS is cloud almost at all times from late tomorrow to Sunday morning.. I think...well, wonder if the GFS is having a problem with DP and huge theta-e loading that's trying to steam bath its way up into the NE as the week goes on? The GGEM and the GFS both doing something bizarre over the weekend, ...they are morphing what appear to be 'heat lows'/thermal troughs along the lee side of the Apps and the coastal plain up to SNE, into baroclinic lows... This, with zero baroclinicity between Buffalo and NYC... All but 972 to 976 dm thickness everywhere. It's also got QPF saturation in that same area in that torrid morasse. I'm not sure I buy any of it.. The GFS MOS has collapsed the high temperature prospects from 90 and 93s to barely limping passed the mid 80s, and fact, fails now to tough 90 at all in some cases through this Saturday...with 850s over 18 C and 570s thickness and 588 ridge cap... mmm... weird. I'm interested in seeing the Euru here...

Meh... some years ... months are different - shocking revelation! June last year has zero bearing on June this year. If anyone has a modicum of philosophical awareness, it may occur to them that the comparison really has equal value to that: Zero. It's tantamount to saying June last year is not June this year - right...got it. Thanks. We had a temperate June ... yay. While most of us in here discussed that as a very likely plausibility ... back at the end of May (btw), I guess now we are stunned that June was banal for heat? I guess.. Going forward, July very likely will start above normal. How much exactly remains to be seen... But, I could see the first 1/4 of the month finishing solidly above.

Having said that ... the 00z Euro looked pretty damn hot for Thur and Frid this week.. Just going by the synoptic layout of basic parameters... looks like 95 is doable those two days, and probably Thur night would be one of those 80 in the urban center type of deals. The American models are ..as usual, running out and contriving gradations to temper things if they can't see them actually in existence ... it seems like - it's figuratively as though the modelers embedded permutation genesis algorithms deliberately to f'up heat. The GFSX MOS is 90 or 91 for four days one cycle, then 85 the next... I mean.. I'm not just complaining for the sake of heat mongering... I wonder what this is going to mean in the winter with this model.

The trend to dampen the mid month cool down was both expected ...and prevalent in the 00z cycle... It's subtle but there - It may not get 'hot' per se...

LOL ...

So far this day his isn't materializing the way I had thought it might, yesterday, when looking over stuff. I was under the impression we'd dawn with fair skies, check ... but, after that? Nah...wasn't seeing this pin-wheel entering NE NY as being so aggressive that it's transforming this into a different synoptic reality... One such result ...too much cloud debris rattling around in its midst ... The column is really closer to being baroclinically cyclogenetic ... evidence by multiple sigma level gunk. Yesterday I thought we'd be warmer in the BL through noon or so, with more sun ... maybe a streak or two of alto strata/cirrus, with horizon toes poking through. Not this inundation shit. No heating. Granted it's still cold aloft. If we do get more sun ... maybe.

Well ... it must be comedy hour then - The Socks presently are a victim of ( stupidity + arrogance )/ 2 = struggling to keep it above 500 while having offensive roster talent capable of repeating. If their pitching roster/team is purely a result of the GM, he is D. "Dumb"browski ... but, I wonder if his bosses salary-capped internally. Add to that stupidity, A. Cora comes off as having an over-belief/arrogance in his ability to run games, while mainatining a dearth of valid pitching... Why? Either because he won it all last year, or... he's covering for the former back-room circumstances... Either way, he'd be a moron for setting himself up that way. Those two factors are ruining this season ( to date) and probably will go on to ruin this season, and waste a good offense.

According to the GSFX MOS.. it's projecting marginal heat wave prospects N-E of roughly EWR ... spanning multiple sites. What's interesting, albeit tedious, is that the synoptic complexion ( 00z ) was/is the warmest 'looking' from that particular model ... going back several cycles. Yet it's machine interpretation chooses that cycle to nick temps off. Otherwise, status quo. Looks like very warm ... hot for some tastes, while quite plausibly failing to register a heat wave. I was just looking at the 2-meter progs on the GFS and it comically puts up 90/89/91/95 ... seemingly on-purpose, for ASH. I gotta figure at this time of year the 'correction vector' is pointed upwards; we can almost perfunctorily add a degree to all these. Man... if it's not rasping ridges it's shirking derivatives... unbelievable. We could be sitting on the surface of the f'n sun and this guidance will have 6,003/89/7210/6534

You work outside ...?

On the fence. We'll see if it has legs... I've seen that since April in that range - more or less what I was talkin' about. But the look then goes on to a warm complexion, just falling shy of getting hot - and by that we mean fairly and objectionably > normal. It seems we're not slated to historic heat... but "perhaps" the models are seeing what reason is causing banal/uninspired summer warmth by over doing it on troughs in that range. But the summer's young, and there's certainly time to get a bigger heat plume going than we've seen. The 12z GFS is now on board for low end heat wave this week to ring in the month...

It was just like that ..but it was bright enough to be visible on the sun side of a back lit CB ... I ran for the phone but ... alas the flaring had ceased by the time I snapped this image off - The yellow arrow is the approx region where it was flaring off the top of the lower turret near the interface where it gets lost punching into the top region. It followed theoretical behavior to a tee...it was glowing in there, then there was bolt of what looked like it might have been cloud-to-air and that seemed to trigger the flare to morph ... it did that a couple of times, too before the whole thing stopped. This guy was putting out distant booms as it was moving away toward the east, and it was warned on the N side of Boston... Wow- today was hugely worth the analysis in my book jesus christ.

got to see my first Crown Flashing phenomenon

yeah ... was thinking pulse being our fun-show ... we got some velocity shear mid way up CBs as they were leaners when first glaciating... but below 10k seems unorganized. DP busted high east of the Berks ( as far as I can tell..) and that's probably given us a CAPE boost

warned ... told ya to watch that cluster -

You can see those towers over my area of Middlesex CO on vis imagery ... those are close to cutting through - wouldn't shock me if those take off for the N. shore...

averaging 83/70 around the Davis' within a couple clicks of mi casa ... The sun popped out for a jiff about 30 minutes ago and that seemed to trigger CU eruption. Dark bases spread over head out of no where. I can also seen towers N-W...