Typhoon Tip

To each his/her own... For me, I always get a petty kick out of snow depth - so sort of siding with the retention folk on that by default, but more specifically... the actual vertical stack. Whenever we get close....say in the 30" post standard compaction range and surviving storm intervals, it starts to get interesting for me. My petty kick is to break the 40" on the level, a depth that has only occurred once for me - and the stipulation is...it has to come to me? Like I don't care about hearing about it Spencer Mass where it's 1200' anyway... It needs to be at or < that 600' and have survived the interim synoptics between snow events. That was 1995 ... 2010 ...and 2015... The former made 36" on the level as the static stack height ..which lasted over 2 weeks and I consider the apex of in situ winter in question - 2010 tied 1995. 2015 freak year made 40" but fascinatingly...it couldn't seem to stack deeper. Each storm only compressed the previous snow back down to 40" or so ...within 24 hours of the storm cessation; the fact that ballast of the snow deposition took place at or < that 10 F may have something to do with that... I recall shoveling big snow piles next to the driveway, and they'd would just up and 'implode' collapsing in on themselves at a certain amount where the fluff factor was too fragile to sustain the weight. It's another sort of indirect argument I have about that winter, and that the snow storm frequency, albeit fantastic, was fortunate behind what should have been the bigger news story: the exotically cold tropospheric r-wave event and the unrelenting cold that took place. Without that cold and the same frequency, we'd be likely talking about a 40" month or something - maybe not exactly ... but something like that. Which would be impressive enough... I want to see that buck-20 amount at 31 F though. 1995 and 2010 in a lot of ways were more impressive because they did so at a higher relative pwat/temperature ratio and thus required rarer thermodynamic achievement as a dual parametric result. ...You'll never get the cat to pull it's head out of the bag and agree with that logic on this particular social media...understood - but 2015 was really more about the cold air inflating stack heights. Anyway, in each case ...if you haven't gotten it down my March one you're typically done - even in 1888, you couldn't get the snow to stay that high before the next rain storm so the retention factor was ironically quite low with that juggernaut. ...etc.. And, I sense the feeble warmth of sun back by then and that triggers my taking flight on the winter season ... I don't even give a shit any more as a middle aged person ( meaning that I suspect age has something to do with this...) if we put of a WSW after about March 10 ....

Mm yeah that's fascinating ... interesting too - these "zygotes" are probably the most fragile atmospheric phenomenon there is... A sailor's fart disrupts and we end up with busted raviolis that propagate along in perfect environmental conditions ... vomiting short of cat 1 status, while people entertain us with 'worries' about RI's ...that of course don't take place. Maybe these plumes and "invisible" butterflies turn the pen of those story-lines - obviously they do... It could be these sort of nuances in the punch bowl - ...I admit to seldom spending the time to look stuff that discrete, as I don't have subscriber access to the sophisticated rainbow of technologies that's above my pay-willingness ... that being, free Digression: It irks me that free-data provided by satellite and radar and wind and other parametrical observation net, that is ultimately available because of tax-payer economics, is then used to turn a huge profit ...off the same tax-payers. But, there's other shit about the world to be outraged over that's probably ethically more reprehensible than this petty hang up I'm describing so ...I am not without awareness there - lol

huh... lol, what is "TT language"? ... just making fun for the depressing dearth of drama in the cinema of the models, by comparing them to that metaphor's drab misery -

Boy that is an impressive wave over western Africa tho ... I mean just eye-ballin' convention/coarse data - can't say I blame any agency's triggering there. That sucker emerges off the continent over any SSTs so much as tepid and it's probably going to become a huge "sucker"

That's so funny ... ( bold ) cuz I was just rubbing forehead over that UVM stuff.... Like, if it's not that then, SAL...nope. Shear ...unlikely with that layout... Ice berg upwelling along the SST trade zone, only in sci fi... I dunno - beats the hell oughta me. Maybe the moon's eccentricity is causing a cascade thermal suppression anomaly by magneto-guided polarity acting as a mechanical inhibitor to rotating motion - yeah

Hehhh...it's not that uncommon? putting a question mark on that ...because it's not that uncommon recently, since ...perhaps 6 or 8 years ago. Before then not so much - I've been commenting here and there how it is evidenced that TPC/NHC seems to have adopted a kind of increased modeling reliance when making deterministic assessments on development regions. That kind of model sophistication come more into play around those teenage years of this century...prior to that, the science and 'state of art' of the craft just wasn't as veracious. They've probably got statistical proof that doing so is better than human ability to do so? I agree - So the short answer is that it's become less uncommon. They did this with Josephine recently along the EC ... That was an X with a 20/50 I think when it was sitting some 75 miles inland of VA Beach over the interior coastal plain down there. The models were developing it...and well... it developed... so, score. Looks to me like the Euro operational is interested with this feature... Getting that particular model to even dent the trade pressure pattern off a wave Invest still 500 km inland ...some 6 days out in time is nothing shy of herculean - it's like trying to reform a sociopath into an empathic aware, functional civilian... but the model seems to at least show contrition in this case - that's snark - The ensemble mean also has said dent and pretty much it is impossible at this point to abase the zeitgeist dough-eyed adoration for the ECMWF product suite so having it sympathetic to that wave ... might also be adding to the enthusiasm there - lol

In terms of 'modeling cinema' ( the real desire that draws this engagement ...) we're being served up a Noir right now... Hard to know what is the greater dystopian value: any wayward outlier run that implicates a bomb going off; or the reality that there is no bomb to really see as very plausible given the recent detail-trends in these guidance... Lol ...either way, this may as well be black-and-white, wan-drawn couple of faces making eggs in a struggling economic kitchen, while an off-set homaged cigarette smoking clown sits behind them ... looking panel of model runs lately. It may just be an initialization issue. The 00z GFS for example... it seems to be having difficult knowing what atmospheric features to focusing upon ... creating and then speeding some amorphously defined TC "dent" in the trade winds N of of PR by a hair...Tracking that backward to 0 -hr...it almost looks like it's targeting the region equidistant between where there are any actual definable zygotes when looking at sat and other wind data to suggest perturbation tracking/entities... It's like ( haha ) the model "has a feeling" something could develop down there somewhere... 06z seems to be better targeting wrt to space and time with the proper entity, but decides it keep it flat and inconsequential throughout. Meanwhile, the Euro two or three cycles ago had the present 90/90 Invest cork-screwed to a Cat 2 near Florida ...but has since meh'ed it's way into focusing entirely on the wave about to come off African which TPC - being model reliant more and more in making Invest assessing - is Xing off features still 500 km over land near Sierra Leone ... Basically, ... we are in throw enough shit into the fan, something oughta stick on the wall mode - we'll just have to gauge the speckles as they emerge.

yeah..it's not just that day ... The Euro was well above normal D3 to 10 save one dubious day that appears synoptically over-wrought in handling a boundary BUF-to Cape Cod D6 or 7 as it is... easily correctable. The 00z was quite warm but not like this ... GFS is on a different moon entirely over the GL D5-8 and since that is our source origin air mass ... Not sure the back was really broken by this ... We had a cool back mid way through the last 4 weeks and this reminds me of that... I think we break in the first week of September this time ... Or, the whole bb discussion is beef-witted and a waste of time - oh yeah, ..that

If it's that obvious it's that obvious ...but, I also Just 'made up' the +7 850s - lol... I also like the pattern footprint to look it... too. Something off about 610 dm heights anywhere -

Not that y'all are not thinking this already buuuut... I'd say that is a remarkable trend on the Euro toward a pretty classic CV route thru the climo key slot of 60 naut mi ENE of PR ... with hugely comparative uptick in intensity profile... This is a bit rare for the Euro to do this and bite on a deterministic entity pre designation status/Invest... This model - I have personally noted .. - seems to require an actual presence in the sounding grid - or some form or another of sensible ingest therein ...before it takes off with these things so. It'll be interesting to see if this is just a fluke run or if the next cycle +'s can demo some continuity. Someone may have mentioned this a bit ago ...the UVV potential shows that the American hemisphere is coming to life right now - it may be the the Euro et al are tapping into that favorability ... not hurting that SAL appears normalized next week too. ...heh, watch us end up in triplicate -

That 180 hr NAVGEM would be a hoot with a couple of 2's on either side of a panic stricken Florida -

yeah ...hence the relativity to scope and scale - But I also think it is important to canvas in a larger region because there are some summers that are fropa plagued - we just haven't had one this year. How do we draw the distinction then. Will and I had this conversation about four or five clicks ago... we seem to have a consensus then; we call it "shot across the bow" air mass? It's that kind of air mass where DPs ... 42 ish, but 850mb temperature may still be 7 or so C ... such that open sky sun and NW d-slope wind might get you into the low and middle 70s ...but as soon as the sun kisses the western tree-line, the air just smells like it's going to hemorrhage heat - you can just tell... The next dawn is dripping dew... 41 F and smells like summers been swept away... Yet, that afternoon, it's back to 74F ... You know, something that is visceral and clearly deeply obvious like that ..This? this was a weird pattern that by virtue toppled an usual big eastern/Maritime high over top, ...that got also accentuated at llvs by those upstart cyclones to our south.. My dp was 68 in rain yesterday ...that's not really unsummer - it's just unhot. That high was there because of the big ridge in the west - transitive architecture. It didn't have the same appeal to me as unilateral seasonal transition entry ... interesting...

Yeah I didn't/don't mean to be sparking argument or be contrarian ... I just think it is just this simple, if the ridge didn't so hugely and anomalously retrograde while still continuing to impress massive thermal totals upon the land out west ... ( eh hm) we wouldn't have any debate at all. It'd be status quo - ..I think the west should be normal... while we have something like now... This? This is something else - I guess also ( admittedly) there is a pettiness to my own perspective in matters, in that when I read the allah looia 'the back is broken' thing ... every year it always seems juuuust a we bit wantonly rushed - lol. Like the first cool fropa or BD in mid August and phew.... 4-8" storm watch next week. Glad we made it. haha But it's all good.

I almost wonder... Oh - heh...I thought you wrote 1911 ... I had to re-read that - wait, they were that hot in 2011? wow - Oh riiiight that was that day down here along Rt 9 in metro west of Boston out around Framingham, when as I sped down the road at 55 mph the dash thermometer was peggin' a buck 5 at 5pm ! I actually had the window down and the AC off in gawk-awe because ... something that obscene really should be corporeally soaked in or why be alive. Heh...

well... not sure one can 'realistically' think so with what's going on out west - I guess relative to our region, maybe? If we are only talking NE ...it's like cat-head-in-the-paper bag syndrome. It doesn't matter that the cat's ass and tail are sticking out of the paper bag, it only sees the inside of the bag so it's perception is safe and hidden in there... Only in this case, the world around NE is an inferno of high summer ...but the pattern anomaly ( the 'bag' ) is nicely tucking our heads inside ... Just don't let the tail sticking out get noticed by Junior. It might... I happen to think the probability is that it won't - I see this pattern as an early R-wave expression during high summer heat ... If the pattern ever rolled out..you'd eject/expulse big time thermal plume and the tail gets yanked. But early expressions like this ( late in May's too ) have been increasingly more common place since 2000 during transition seasons... I'm digressing but I think we're going to see early cold waves late Sept through October/Novie ...maybe even some legit snow threats in latter frames - packing pellet busted virga plumed CU by Halloween ... then, the gradient kicks by Xmass leaving seasonal giddy outlooks going whaaa -

"hell" is right - because I'm left heart broken again ... yeah, yeah go ahead - but, she lives in the East Village above downtown San Francisco - and we've had a storied passed going back some 25 years. It's complex and textured and ... hugely inappropriate for any social media setting patron by sagacity and patient insight ... Anyway, it didn't work out sufficed it is to say - and now...this ... won't. let. me. forget. The holistic symbolism is torturous ... I just want a category 3.5 hurricane sitting over the outer Bahamas, with a Bahama Blue conveyor pattern pointed giving it no other choice - ..heh, kind of like my lost fight for her... Right at western Maine - but at this point, would settle for a f'n cumulonimbus cloud - anything other than ennui so stretched it challenges the very endurance of man.. forcing any lovelorn lover of natural science to beedie- eyed conviction right smack where she sits her fantastically shaped ass.

It's why I don't think the 'summer's back has been broken' ? We are in a highly anomalous pattern - grant you that... One that has taken on a +PNAP construct. We are not dumping 100 F boundary layer heat plumes into coastal California off a broken back... But, the phrase is subjective so taken fwiw It's interesting to me ... I have this observations about this summer ( ..and similarly I noticed this the last two summers as well ). There seems there is a kind of 'velocity hangover' left-over from that ground-based, airline flight speed record maelstrom winter. LGA to London in 3.5 hours at sonic gb velocities.. amazing really. These are statistics recurrent with more frequency in recent winters, too. Most likely ...it is some sort of indirect if not direct physical manifestation ( ulimately) of the expanded HC into the lower Ferrel termination latitudes causing increased gradient...etc. It's just much more subtle due to the nature of the time of year - but it's kind of still there. The point being, with subtle more wind momentum that may cause more structured R-wave tendencies than is normal for this time of year... and we're ending up with that early February look ... Just an idea -

I think the pattern has shifted uniquely and unusually into a highly amplified Pnap pattern at an extreme anomalous value… Much more so than summers back being broken this pattern is exaggerating I don’t see how we can justify 100 to 110° over the entire state of California under to 600+ dam means that. I’m only bringing it up because I think we could get into an extended period of oppressive warmth still given the state of all. that said I also think that we are going to have an early cold snaps followed by early snows in autumn just like we have the last four years since 2015 followed by gradient rich pattern

The air carries a soupcon of marine aroma some 35 miles inland.. I'm in Ayer, MA and at first impression out of door you'd think we're a couple blocks inland from a shore road. I love that - ... But, after some four straight weeks of 87 to 94 unrelenting, patience-eroding warmth, this 66 F backdoor mass insert is hugely wonderful and needed. Man - ... I have literally put 125 mi a week on my bike over the last six weeks because it has just been too hot for running and frankly, ...don't want to look at that apparatus until next April at this point. And it is a BD acceleration ... Time sensitive but high res loop suggests a front.. probably a BD-genesis or amorphously so... moving west of ALB into NYS...as a N-S oriented arc tending to sweep out clouds... Then, some 80 mi back east where the post air mass is deeper the strata arc arrives to eclipse the sky. ... In an interesting twist, as the west coastal regions of the country are in an extraordinarily rare August scenario, we here in New England are actually experiencing what they typical do - 'foggaust' ... It's unusual at both ends... and an homage to a bizarre synoptic layout frankly... with an aberrational +PNAP configuration. Firstly, we are getting all this erosion and mixing out of lower tropospheric heat at continental synoptic scales here in the east, at heights 582 dm ? We've been 100 at that height - yet ... idiosyncratically the circulation medium finds a way to eradicate warmth at these relatively elevated hypsometric layouts. Fascinating... Meanwhile, Reno NV has heights exceeding 600 dm! I'm sure this situation chaps Kevin's ass ...but, we early May it for probably the next two days ...while this unusual big high finally diminishes and the easterly components exhaust. Hard to say if strata stays dominate in the sky, this far on the warm side of the solar curve - but it just has a bully vibe on sat comlexion at least for today over eastern regions.. -

That fourth blizzard in Feb 2015 tied my personal temperature depth/snow fall tandem with a 1981 Lake blitz over western Michigan. both events hovered -1 F during 1/4 mi vis shattered talcum powder cob-webbing off roof eaves ...squeaking under foot falls like chalkboard cringe. It was nearing the 20th of Feb by that one and figured the winter must’ve at last bonked it’s nadir but five days later another blizzard warning verified in a roundly recovered +5F event that featured soothing twice as much wind. Or it might have been #3 and #4 ... but I remember those two storms as back to back particularly hideously cold… Like hell’s heart sociopathic cold and the second of which was the bomb; the deep one that was like a 972 mb low going over Nantucket with wind gusting to 55 miles an hour in the Worcester Hills, in an airmass so ludicrous you’d think all molecular motion should completely come to a screeching halt but the wind snapped off the crown of a Douglas fur down my street. It laid over the powerlines pulled taut during that cryo- frappe and thank God we never lost power! Oh yeah ... that was like the 2nd warmest Global February in history.

What’s the climo on August Icelandic bombs? holy shit

Depends what we mean by snapping back. Do we mean like we’re gonna get into an extended period where is below normal? I ... no. Not to be a dink but I‘m doubting that’s happening - we are hockey sticking the climate and people just have to get their heads around we are not turning back -imho ... Concomitantly with that it gets harder to see the machinery of the atmosphere of the planetary system producing an extended period of below normal blah blah blah beyond so long as humanity continues to pump industrial farts into the environment I mean sure we can get a day like that here and there because there’s no discounting anomalies. By the way ...look what happened in San Francisco today ... what an alarming heat wave. - that’s going to put some climo grad student on the map. Special climate report last year just put out precise statistically guided study that showed world over that extreme heat wave frequency is increasing and then this happens… And finally happens in the United States it’s been since what 2012? We’ve been hotter than normal this summer but as usual our hotter than than normal contribution to the global thing has been coming in last place - we’re like the Napolis in the 400 m sprint at the Olympics

Just coming in here to say that... not very "foggaust" -like there today. "The coldest winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco" said Samuel Clemens once ...a saying that is well known to the locals around the Bay area. The climatology is that the local Hadley cell intensifies in late July through early September, and that draws a perpetual marine jet in that keeps the region quite chilly. Today, they were 100 to 104 at many sites around the Bay and down town, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year there. In fact, this ridge in west is extraordinary, with hypsometric heights exceeding 600 dm!! ...it's the shear exertion of this phenomenon ... so extreme it actually counters said jet and by shear thermal wind component forcing. Really amazing... What's interesting is the 00z GFS and the 12Z Euro try to progress this R-wave back east and pulls the heat out with it ...probably would be the last cycle of summer before the hemispheric fold turns the page if so... But it's unstable and new -

I just explained how it can - IF 2007 never flipped,..it would have been worse - ...if one is into the whole snow and ice and cold drama seeking, that is.

It can't ? How about if 2007 never flipped in Feb... we'd had the first ever 0 - winter - think it was then, 2006-2007 ... unrelenting warmth in the 50s/60s through January ...couple days threatened 70 with no hope in sight in model, ensemble means ...nor the teleconnectors that are derived from those means. In fact, that the year of the titan +AO pillars that soared to some +6 SD and they had to move the scale up to capture the acmes of those curves. Big storm on Valentines day tho -