Typhoon Tip

oh I don't problem with the event... it's getting that set up - I know your busin' balls it's all good... But the flow is too damn flat and fast for me to trust... I'd almost be surprised if this didn't turn into something else... Maybe more ? hey - how about that... who with me!

yeah... I was just getting the numbers out there word! I think I was 22 but not sure... 18 anyway -

Here you go on the 6th, 12z ... all that trouble from a 1004 mb low ... 15 to 20 " worth - don't have to have very big intense bombs all the time... Sometimes you max out one or two metrical values and viola

So... here comes the boom ... surface high N and low Miller Bs up underneath - or gets ready to at 12z here on the 5th... Note it is not an overwhelmingly powerful system... but, that high up there was f'g'n cold man! ...and this thing rollin' underneath just absolutely was flawless DGZ glide

Ah ...gotcha -... yeah... truth be told, all these storms have some sort of analogical relationship... I mean, cold north warm south moisture involved ne wind ... they all got that going for them... lol

That's one of my most favorite transition weeks of all time... Here was a infamous traffic snarl windex event that heralded in the cold that set stage for the system later that week... That inocuos trough and green smudging there was the most afflicting 1/2 to 1.5" of snow of all times. I-95 was a parking lot that morning and it took people like 4 hours get to the office. Temp went like 37 to 25 in white outs squalls like immediately, and the roads flashed

I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha

Once there ... sure! I mean I'm not trying to be a deb downer ...and I realize I'm hammering this point to no avail ( lol ...) but I just don't like the shallow N-S coordinate while raging 100 to 150 kt mid tropospheric jet and flat PNAP ... transporting open longitudinal waves off the Pacific like that whole lead up is. It may happen...okay. Fine... and I agree, as is? That's a fine tasty look. I tell you what *if* *if* *if* that pattern morphs successfully into that configuration ( for the folk reader - ) you wouldn't need a hugely powerful system to create a prolific snow result. The kinematic structure is quite superb in that set up ... that's a 'snow machine' look .. perfect 700 mb easterly anomaly running up over a steadily backing wind with depth... NNE over interior .. very cold column... wow - I just don't like how we get there... Hope it does though - this is some seriously boring weather otherwise, huh

Heh ... at least it keeps the wave open at D7 passing the the wind max thru the upper MA and S of NE ... That's a reasonable good fit - problem is...getting to that point first. That D4 --> 5 ...well, assessing what's coming off the Pacific ...let's get that ironed out first. I mean this thing comes from well west of California to S of NS and the wind max's trajectory doesn't really vary in the N-S plain by more than 1K naut miles... pretty cool actually - like a rifle wave ...

I'd like to see the Euro hold that at < 5 days ... That smacks as typical curvature loading when dumping Pac waves east of ~100 W .. passing between day 5 and 6.. Thing is, I think there is a wave space that is legit - at some point the weight of these ensemble means should have a say. I cannot underscore the deterministic challenges in a flat fast flow that is really ... faster then any time in history - really as a multi years/seasonal issue going on at planetary scales. But that's getting out there... Hopefully it works out - I'd like to see more ridging in the west too

GGEM is more than a mere outlier - it's telling... This is a highly volatile week's worth of shrapnel coming off the Pacific with very low deterministic value - I think if folks truly got their heads around this ...and adhered to it ...the ebullience would rightfully be held in check - ... lol.... It's okay but...you do the dopamine thing and it is palpable, and you do what you gotta do to bring joy to your life, even if it is allowing these 'tools' in the tool chest trigger - I gotta tell you - I got a socket wrench that really does it for me. hahaha

It's probably more an indictment on this Kuchera's method but ... given to the antecedent air mass/ in situ during ... and the storm synoptic evolution being sort of "ideal" ( ish )... that kind of snow layout/gradient is unrealistic... I don't have a problem in modern climate of finding the PWAT necessary to neighborhood the coveted 30" award ...but having all of VT ... zero ? I bet half those band numbers at most max ... or, there is quite a bit more of a NW realization than this depiction - again ...predicated on the assumption that antecedent air mass/ in situ during ... and the storm synoptic evolution are closer to reality. I think we'd find it hard in climate annuls to find that sort of snow result anologs - just a hunch

I know... holy cryo hell. I wonder if at some point this winter does it and we'll wanna refer back to this discussion lol

Hey... you guys only see the neg-head side of that uncertainty - "math" requires there's a possibility in either direction; it could very well come in great, too - I never said no to that ... go back and read the fugger - ... I said, "confidence" is low - that can mean anything. I just read a 'tenor' for optimism ...and while I don't have a problem with optimism itself, it has to be foundationed in something... I hear the melody in here and it sounds like someone dreaming of a someone they used to know, and thinking that because it's on the radio - that must be a sign... hahaha... Oh god - welcome to my life

Is anyone noticing that redic cold plume that's gaining mass over interior/NW territories of the Canadian shield on the Euro operational..? That's the most consistent identifiable 'object' on any of these charts and means... -30 C 850 mb isn't a mere parcel over Dead Horse ...it's spread out over a huge real-estate now, and is nearing -40 C at a couple of nodel holes... Man, should the synoptic dam ever topple and bring that down, it's not like it's traveling from Siberia over an open Beaufort Sea... it'd be through Chicago with zero modification trek almost immediately -

Education and experience tells us not to be optimistic about D7/8 ... Why ? Beyond the obvious ... that "D7/8" aspect, the pattern is one defined by fast and progressive, and I would even rub that in by calling it 'fastly progressive'. I'm not even sure the system in the foreground up through the Lakes is being handled right. The flat very fast nature of the flow is so excessive ...that system's governing wave space is still off the west coast. It's actually not even over land and into the denser physically realized sounding grid. I mean... assimilation has come a long way - in fact... I have noticed that "shadowing," which used to cause depth/amplitude morphology headaches down stream over eastern N/A in the past... is now gone in most cases. However, over this recent decade or so - I'm suspicious there isn't a deliberate bias to over-assimilate where uncertain. Over doing matters is not likely to harm civility - ... lol, annoy Kielbasa weather chart cinema co-dependent neurotics like us ? sure.. But 99.999999% of the population is not going to be injured ...it's not seeing potency that will... and so on... Different discussion.. Without the western ridge/eastern trough coupled ( 101 here ) structure ... mm. See, when the flow is curved, it stresses the S/W strength over arcs of ridges (destructive) ..tending to 'iron' unwanted wrinkles - think of it that way.... Those that survive that ride, they get constructive feedback/amplitude boost as they near the bottoms of trough... - this total process "filters" noise out naturally ... Thus, conservation of wave mechanical energy results - predictability increases ... So, instead of buck-shot coming off the Pacific like now... you get a nicer orderly wave spacing with bigger slugs of dreams of cryo candy bliss and less domestic blowouts - When the flow lacks these larger scale focusers/filters ...conservation opens up to entropy ( disorganization ) and S/W interfere ... blue lights flicker over car tops parked at angles across front lawns... Even the more advanced technology systems have intrinsic difficulty handling fast open wave progressive flow tendencies ... without the extra hyper discrete sampling to avoid the choas emergence of wave interactions when the flow lacks to the ability to "focus" mechanics wave space into a specific spatial-temporal positions within the streams. That's enough... Anyway, this nearer term deal off the Pacific could come in slightly over assimilated...and that would mean ( most likely ..) a flatter evolution ...more through the eastern Lakes or even NY as a short term correction... Doesn't mean much for us as far as our sensible weather ... Meaningless shade-puller while we watch our NFL teams... But, that trailing wave might get less interfered negatively by a weaker lead system ...Those ICON - type solutions for early Tuesday could "little critter" the area ... But even this 'correction model' is complete shit when considering that chaos is rather high - ... All this, THEN... whatever happens D7/8 ?? Good luck...

I’m sure they’ve done it internally in the engineering ... testing reanalysis etc.

Not impossible that the 24 hour relay off the Pac proves over assessed as far as potency of that leading wave in the parade ( apparently ..) that's about start later tomorrow and spit S/W over mid latitudes for week's worth... Anyone of which could be important - as is? looks like a bag of interference headaches... But if that lead is over assessed it may not turn a lakes cutter that soon and deep through Michigan...flattening the lead... I also am not sure the +PP and the curl/'tuck' scenario over/eastern NE is entirely correctly handled in the bigger synopsis..but we'll see on that.. . Should that transpire, the next wave originally slated for next Tues/Wed may return to the guidance' as a player - Not a prediction but I'll personally be watching the ejection out of the eastern Pac tomorrow...and if there indeed a morphology toward flattening things.. .

I've been noticing .. more so, the warm node up near the EPO domain there in the N-NE Pacific Basin ... It "looks" like a La Nina vestige/or artifact ...but, of course, then I have to concede to the La Nina as actually having an influence on the global circulation - to which ...I am not sure it is... The flow is/has been too erratic.. I think the HC expansion is controlling that more so, and the La Nina? The former circumstance is mimicry if you will.. Or, is being absorbed inside ...and since few seem aware or willing to admit/understand the HC expansion's effects on modulating/changing the Global eddy... they are simply unaware - yeah.. a bit if hypothesis that rolls eyes ...understood. But the HC stuff is not mine? NO - it's documented, scienced and papered... I don't see how we can expand the tropical/sub-tropical band over top the termination latitudes of wave dispersion without effecting that model... It's bad math - But that aside, it seems said warm arcing ridge presentation is a tropopause or lower stratospheric "echo" of a very high latitude curved jet over the Pacific ... more so than any PV break-down ?? ... The splitting vortex phenomenon is really not typically in that axis ...rotate that 90 degs.. That's sort of clue too - I'm almost willing to bet we could find this flipping into a mad -EPO at some point ...like topping a dam - Lol... if that happens no one Tweets about every little nuanced perturbation in the PV in an attempt to signal a good winter -

I'm wondering ...well, 'suspecting' .. that the flat trajectory in an anomalously fast hemisphere coming off the Pacific into western N/A is proving the operational models as being far worse than the technological hubris thinks of itself... If the EPS solution is right with 51 members at D8/9 ... than the operational Euro should never be run again -

Fwi not w - Regardless of the NAM's 2-meter temperature layout(s) ... all three 00z, 06z and 12z solutions for their respective 72 -84 frames cannot happen without an icing scenario setting up from interior Mass and points NE up the climo burrier jet axis E of the Greens and Whites... ------ know what's funny about that GGEM snow product above ?? It's way, way underdone relative to that model's centric handling of synoptics and it's own event, for a hemisphere that won't allow its model-centric synoptics in the first place - it erroneously snow totals for an error weeeee Crazy conooks -

What is this based upon ? This tells us nothing... I see a cross-hair axis with no units and squiggly line... Is it modeled ...or observed - what is this ... NOAA's just released/updated the 30 mb QBO and it has increased westerly phase intensity to 11.15 ... up from 10 in October. That's ending November 30 - Here is the yearly trend: 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 11.15 -999.00

Heh... the whole ordeal is likely in synoptic flux anway. That handling over Ontario is this Euro run is tantamount to an anticyclonic bomb taking all of cycles to go from 10 clicks over sea level to 1040 ? Path of lesser resistance ... it's probably indicative of no confidence in a Lakes position with the 120 hour thing.

Know what we never seem to see anymore ... damming signatures in low level pressure patterns - gosh I miss the good ole days

Yet another school ... I also don't like the way the Euro rotates that positively tilted trough at D5 dropping through the Arklotex and stem-winding the mid levels like that. Looks 'surprisingly' over conserved with curvature - what's new ... Euro going from D5 into 6. Heights over the Gulf and Florida and off the U.S. SE coast are rather lofty in that evolution leading, and that's planetary banded/anchored... It could/should rather cause the flow to speed up and that would destructively interfere -