Typhoon Tip

problem is ... every distant storm in the models are not created equally - There are ways to increase confidence intervals over random - and learning to employ those methods ( when ..) is a bit of art in the practicum but, does pay dividends at times for early recognition. This one for Feb 2nd... hate to say, has that - ...Which means that it won't now out of smite but that's another paranoia -

The flow was/is too fast all along for that kind of subsume phase James - southern stream bi-passes before the N stream has a chance to drop in and capture. I mean kudos for recognizing the set up but the snap shot is torpedoed by the velocity surplus; it has really hurt the last several seasons for that matter, from observing that kind of 1978 'esque stream inter syncing harmonics.

I think he was being facetiously snarky about the trends - ... relaxation goes both ways ... lol. wow

I mean ...we laugh .. but has it occurred to anyone else that these single events if not pattern aggregate scenarios are getting increasingly more successful at doing that? I mean over the last 10 to 20 years of the books, two-events atoning for halt-to-whole seasonal quotas is getting a bit eerily common ... One event 30 to 40" deep from S of Water Town NY to Brian front porch is astounding but is getting sort kinda weirdly familiar - I could just see an index anchor-low like that ... pivoting around the "lagrange point" over 30 hours of pummeling moderate snow. After 5 weeks and counting in dearth.. boom! Any perceived seasonal snowfall deficits ... corrected - only in this group of ingrates they'll still feel somehow oddly cheated and still owed but that's a different discussion -

And not to beat the topic ... actually, is there a NORLUN checklist ? ...you know - like there is for WINDEXing

So much for the Feb being a lost cause ... That 2nd thing could amass 90% of the month's quota just getting started -

Moving this post here: I mentioned this yesterday in a post so long that no one likely read it ( lol...) ... we could end up in protracted/saturating easterly fetch into cold thickness out of this... Tues night primes the wick by saturating the column. The more important miss moves by to the south. The latter of which perpetuates with the establishment of a long fetch off the Atlantic... The GFS QPF is mapping persistent albeit light contamination ongoing through the mid week period and this has actually been both on and off cycle but is believable given that foresaid synopsis. Could snow lightly for a long time... mixing with freezing drizzle and grains when not aggregated. Gray wintry pall to the atmosphere ... Also, that kind of set up can manifest an inversion a bit where the WB layer is beneath the 700 mb ...and then you get a low sounding growth region and the snow may sneaky come down at an appeal that is a category heavier then radar depiction. Kind of a street lamps romanticizer ... Yeah, bunner cash in OES embedded too - That's taking the GFS operational verbatim though - heh...always a risk. But we are under 108 hours so... it may be worth it to start ruminating details. I would also be weary ... when that SPC chunk comes down ...watch that NORLUN QPF hook out there...It's been flagged in the ICON too and it's really a NORLUN vestige out over the the water as it is.. So yeah 26 and 27 but it may be 2.5 day smear for us... miss the storm but generate our own concern from geographic circumstance. Having the N-S elevation striations through the area helps that, too. nice -

Ok, well you're disagreeing with the 'straw man' then, because I was just outlining ( like I said, ...) the less likely means to a better outcome. Also, the Dakotas ridge longitude is statistically clad - sorry

Yup... PNA rise, too - That featuring fits inside the Jan 28 - Feb 5th ( ~ ) window of fairly classic teleconnector signaling... In this case, the latter of which may be more trustworthy because of the 'telecon convergence' - ... Think of that as having two disparate statistical inference regions ... coming to the same conclusion at point X ... in this case, we be point X, and the disparate regions are the PNA and the NAO. Either has a correlation to exciting/preceding a NE storm in their own right -

May not be a bad presumption ...no - We've seen "-NAO winters" do something like this in the past often enough, where just when we think the -NAO is gone... it just starts festering back into the future guidance. Personally, I've stopped looking at the NAO ...because I firmly believe the NAO is a manifestation of non-linear forcing downstream of the Pacific wave dispersion shit ...anyway, and the directive to focus on that region really should be just used to show that said processes are taking place - In other words...the forcing is coming from the Pacific in the latter wave function - it's really the type of concept and understanding that will resonate clearly in this social-media bubble, sure ... Anyway, for storm enthusiasts, ... pulsing the -NAO back to nuetral or modestly positive, rinse repeat .. probably situates events when it is rising... Then, limiting the realization going back the other way. It doesn't mean there can't be events and interesting stuff to track on the off-cycles of course.

I posted this in the tired January thread .. not realizing this one was/is active: Multi agency PNA monitoring suggest either a mode change to modestly positive, or, a neutralization of the erstwhile negative character of that index. ( Edit, this concerts with what Will is saying about support from different sources ...) The NAO obolishes ..or, at least this current rendition of it - being a west based exhausted elephant that's decided to set it's ass down over eastern N/A. Rising PNA of any kind during an NAO block decay sends a modest Archembaultian 'correction event' vibe through the hemisphere. This would time during the January 28 - thru about Feb 5 span of time. I wouldn't be argumentative if anyone advanced discussion over anything in that time frame already on the charts, or in surmise ...were guessing something may emerge in the guidance. As a quick exit point, there are semblances of the -EPO in some operational cycles that I'm seeing occasionally as of late. These may be figments of an underlying detection for the former change in the PNA ... sort of an obscure confidence that 'some'thing is trying to snap one end of the bed linen over the next 10 days.

I looked across the last four cycles of that model and frankly ... it's amusingly sensitive to call that 'back to nothing' - hahaha.. I mean, the other way was almost meaninglessly more. The variations between those runs were quantum scaled nuances ( hyperbole but to make the point).

Rather ironically ... there is a prediction I can make that 100% certain in this roughly three week stint of -NAO ... whilst an unpredictable, unmanned fire-hosing frenzy spills in waves from off the Pacific: - eyes will roll at the following op-ed Oh,...okay. I'll employ mercy and keep it to a few bullet points this time ) Multi agency PNA monitoring suggest either a mode change to modestly positive, or, a neutralization of the erstwhile negative character of that index. The NAO obolishes ..or, at least this current rendition of it - being a west based exhausted elephant that's decided to set it's ass down over eastern N/A. Rising PNA of any kind during an NAO block decay sends a modest Archembaultian 'correction event' vibe through the hemisphere. This would time during the January 28 - thru about Feb 5 span of time. I wouldn't be argumentative if anyone advanced discussion over anything in that time frame already on the charts, or in surmise ...were guessing something may emerge in the guidance. As a quick exit point, there are semblances of the -EPO in some operational cycles that I'm seeing occasionally as of late. These may be figments of an underlying detection for the former change in the PNA ... sort of an obscure confidence that 'some'thing is trying to snap one end of the bed linen over the next 10 days.

Disagree with what ? ..." Is it likely probably not. .." - the point was just not to do this 86 autopilot act that's really based upon emotion - not you per se but it's palpable and equally annoying. Boxing Day was a significant cyclone that was routinely taken E much in the same way and corrected N in the last 48 hours ...sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings out to a non-suspecting demography ...and the regulars in here rushing to make up for the 5 dayls worth of 'model cinema heroin' they missed out on... Granted, there's been modeling upgrades along these tail-end of Moore's Law in technological advancement years since, ... in theory, improving the A.I. engine of the models...But, not joining in with that faithful congregation inside that temple of our electronic gods, in an era that's inherently got almost N/S in the mid ranges ..might just be a healthy degree if incredulity and skepticism - So, if you disagree with that? Okay - I got no problem with disagreeing LOL... Look, I'm not a meat ball either. This winter is a donkey dong boning for the snow enthusiasts. I am a sympathetic, empathically aware human - unlike the girl of my dreams that recently turned out to be a sociopath ...but I digress -

Premature post Anyway that’s a plausible explanation for that as far as the 29th is concerned I still don’t see why that can’t be corrected North. … Which is to say I’m not willing to remove that as a possibility yet. Is it likely probably not. I tell you though the GEFs locks the ridge axes over the Dakotas and then pushes the trough out to sea .. that doesn’t make any sense it extends the wave length without having any systemic mechanical device to do so in the larger synoptic evolution of the pattern

Cheer up guys… how to console the inconsolable so I’m not going to bother… But I’ll say it makes sense if the euro can’t see the 26 because it digs too much in the southwest at least excuse imaginable and when it does that it lifts the flow over the Ohio Valley to compensate and that tends to damp out leading wave spaces

That westerly spread is just as ominous

yeah no this GFS run is again showing inconsistent handling of the eastern Canada and conjoining western limb of the NAO domain eddy - 00z the GFS had limited to no SPV fragmentation/interaction dropping in... 06z teensy bit more...12z adds another pinch ..now this one tries to bring it down again... Which is pushing this out because there's no way given the speed surplus of the jets involved can that capture and phase - so the only other option is to kick - but, we still have 120 hours to iron this out and that handling of the NAO space dictates what pushes that shit south vs leaves this thing along... Alone I feel it has enough to correct N in time, and the ridge, W, is positioning near the Dakotas and that is climate friendly to an EC strikes. ... The other aspect is that the entrance region for the escaping jet fields off the EC are probably being flattened by said -NAO exertion... Hence the due east motion of the deep layer... All of which is open to modulation in my mind but - that's not a forecast. Just a suggestion of what to look for on these next few runs. When something of a bit more power got ingested into the grids/initialization of the 00z ..that's when this began to look better back east for storm enthusiasts. A stronger realization would help the lead S/W ridge rollout ..and feed back - ways to go here...

Yeah... agree with Scott re the GEFs... Noting the spread at TT is over the NW arc - tends to incline where the correction is more likely to occur in future cycles... I would also remind as I am sure for those with experience would concur ...this is a candidate for the N correction if I've ever seen one. And seeing the Euro outside of it's wheel-house trend even a little is right on that... Next run's a litttle more? Than a again...then we're in..and we're still over the 4 D threshold.. It eerily portends to this member smear .. We'll see - I too am not immune to the rigors of a punishing ennui/uninsprired atmosphere at least excuse imagined persistence ..but, struggling to maintain objectivity as it may be to do so.. I cannot preclude this thing not striking N of the M/A proper latitudes. This is all at this point predicated on the assumption that the -NAO exertion/suppressed storm track is being handled exact ... very sensitive however. Slight nuanced if yet even undetectable to the almost 'unaided' eye may mean critical 3 deg latitude in pass ... and to re-iterate, big systems move small amounts and that involves disproportionately larger areas. Plus, this 12z GFS still looks like an OES meso concern for eastern Mass and SE NH/Cape ..That's a very cold antecedent air mass on a long shore wind getting set in there and I suspect that's grits everywhere in 22 F sting...with some streamers to 1/2 mi visibility ... Too detailed for this range?? absolutely...but it goes along with the trope about 'not focusing on the eye of the hurricane' - this is the most powerful system of the season and appears with these subtle ridge alterations ...mm, sneaking up as a hemispherically footed deal - whether this hit or not...

Something got absorbed into the GFS 00z initialization overnight S of the Gulf of Alaska. It had triggered an immediate physical response ... culminating in significantly deeper, larger down stream result during the 28-29th. So, as we know they're now modeling high impact risk scenarios ... cute. What leaps out at me is that these models are less 'weird' looking, though? Prior run had variant depth and middling sized handling, cycle to cycle, ranging from due east motions, to unrealistic SE motions from Cape Hatteras to S of Bermuda ( at exotic pressure depths )... Stuff that's not impossible - no. But less seen historically. Just in general 'spraying' solutions within that envelope of poor continuity. Now ? - far more climatology apropos for one. But the 00z to 06z GFS just look deliberate - sometimes ya just gotta say it that way. And, when trends do that and not the other way - lending to distraction - that always raises an eyebrow for me. Passing through the mid range? mm..that times to Pacific data-assimilation issue frankly, as suspiciously culpable. So far these trends still limit along/astride the middle EC, but by virtue of size and how these depiction integrate the surrounding synoptic medium, there are extended concerns that give us our own headaches this far N. I would option for more impact up our way, though It's a long time at 120 hours in this arena of low skill, to maintain such a delicate placement of an elephant that big. Any subtle 'giga' motion in the model handling of a system that large ... can implicate a beefier output/impact over regions that are comparatively small relative to the size of the entity being tracked. Sort of like looking at a boulder careening down a ravine from across a valley, but when you get up close you realize that the boulder was the size of a Colonial mansion ... You bump this entity 100 naut mile N of the 06z GFS track, you got blizzard conditions in Providence - There is a bomb here... thunder snow wind acceleration, ...slow down do to torque resistance.. The whole shmack in the scenario for DCA-PHL/NJ. To me, it is somewhat reminiscent of 'PD1' ... though I don't care to get into whether that's an analog, just in practice/behavior. This thing may NESDIS' the hell out of that region, with light snow and biting wind and nastiness to the Pike. Whilst virga undulating skies tickle tendrils to tree tops, flurries and grains ... teast to S VT/NH. Headache 1: ... OES is a factor over eastern zones, S of PWM. The 06z even models a QPF streamer extending a thousand KM hosing into eastern MA.. But, the thing's circulation is massive...it's has a long shore fetch emanating deep in the Atlantic, where there is going to be a mixing in the 850 to 925 mb levels of that moisture source with nascent polar-arctic air aligning to the N, helping to ignite activity in the mixing of the column... It is risky to speak of such details... I am not forecasting that? I am attempting to elucidate the challenges of a system that large and the kinds of extended concerns that will smear N. I'm also wondering about tides in that... If this thing does slow down taking a couple tide cycles to succeed the distance from the Del Marva to the outer G-string waters before truly pulling away, ...at 965 mb depths and a +PP draped over SE Canada means there will be a oceanic response ... long swell arrival during a high tide or two. All this on the table... Headache 2: ... regards the surrounding synoptic idiosyncrasies that are sort of esoteric or obscure about this thing. It should be noted that the GGEM has been a N. outlier all along.. It is hard to say if these GFS trends are joining that camp, or if that camp is lucky, and this sudden movement toward a deeper systemic vastness and overal structural just happens to align. But the spooked aspect deals in synoptic super-structure. The flow scaffold is trended toward less 'curved' tendency exiting the 35th parallel extending E of the coast into the Atlantic/Bermuda particularly sneaky in the last 2 to 3 cycles. It's a "behavior tendency," not so evinced point to point in runs. The GFS/GGEM want to hold the axis of that ridge back toward the Dakotas (~) .. Hello! That is the climate axis for nailing the shit out of DCA-PWM. So DCA-PHL/NJ impact scenario is has the historical inference; whether that comes further N is also acceptable - just not modeled so much at this time. That is probably owing to the large NAO circulation - which may in fact be crucially modulating/correcting an amount that brings this just enough. I've seen these deformation smears lift N inside of 84 hours before. Jan 6-9th of 1996 did that... I cannot rule that out at this point... no way. Not when noticing the behavior trend to limit the SE calving motion of the previous solution ..correcting N, and, noticing the upstream riding/positioning. I don't know if these trends are finished at 120+ hours in an intrinsically bad model performing hemisphere ... The NAO ( or transitive Pacific influence; whichever one wants to blame) is a tricky and delicate matter off the EC. It matters, because the above tendencies are already creating a correction window to bring this N in these guidance'... I don't believe the Euro is infallible in this regard. The GFS may even lose this signal again... But I wouldn't bring it off the table if it does...

Yeeeeah ...that I believe is a threshold question ? It deals with starting at -40 C ( ...picking a deep value for the point of discussion ...), and having to move that needles +20 C, before the poles stop exerting as much push back against the warming middle and lower latitudes. In the interim ... lots of gradient regimes. There's some wiggle room there... And because the polar starts at such a low point, moving vast amounts is a physical availability issue/budgeting based upon mass. That area up there is small relative to the whole areas outside of it integrating the warmer world. These outre regions warm ... 3C ... that inputs a lot of mass into a smaller domain space, such that the said smaller space may move it's needly by multiples of that same input to atone for the thermal potential. Think of it this way: an equal mass of ice mixed with an equal mass of liquid water, will mix to some temperature. But, take the same mass of liquid water, and mix it with two ice cubes. The end result is colder. In this case, we're talking about 1 ice cube and an order of magnitude more mass storing its therms to share into the ice cube...so the ice cube is going to move more. At some point though, the ice disappears, and it's rate of change slows. It is at this point the the whole atmosphere attains a new paradigm - one that may feature 200 m of oceanic depth increase because Antarctica is officially entering glacial rebound/geology ... Not in our life-times ...but we're being tongue-in-cheek a little here.

Great question! Short answer? I don't know... Somewhat longer answer, I have not been able to find any source that calculates that metric - but I think it is worthwhile; and some grad students with ambition and access/wherewithal should really do so and earn themselves a dissertation. Because, the airline industry has been setting ground -based trans-oceanic speed records now regularly for the past 20 ... and more so, 10 years. Plus, pattern and teleconnector inference headaches.. you name it.. Understanding the wind increase and how that feeds back into the R-wave modulation/global atmospheric mechanics of the general circulation isn't just pissing off snow zealots in social media, it clearly has a practical use in the fuel industry and the general risk assessment arenas to name a couple...

Cool loop! Keep in mind... that's the "stratosphere" ... The issue is the PV in the troposphere - that's what counts for terrestrial experience/interests - I am having difficulty finding direct evidence that the -AO has really been driven by the stratospheric --> downward exertion... In other words, are/were they truly coupled? This -AO is residually predating that apparent SSW event in the first week of this month. SO, if there is a couple tropospheric response, it is not likely to have happened yet anyway, because the total model has a ~ yet still coherent three week lag correlation to tropospheric mode transition to negative wrt to the AO. I mean...not that you are refuting any of this .. heh.. Just sayn'

ah, you beat me to it - I just posited the same sort of gist ...

Plus ...keep in mind, all this consternation could be true, and there's still the random 2015 - ... These are not absolute limitations... it's like everything in nature, however - we deal in a reality governed by probabilities. It's just that when a given system gets f'ed around with, it changes the machinery of said system, and it producing differently. GW ( leaving the "A" out of it ) ... changes the machinery of the atmospheric system. So...you know, suppose probability says that 60% of the time you will see a certain flavor of outcome, means one happens to be more likely to see said outcome at any given point along the way... blah blah... The thing is, as of 2007, the Special C Report flagged the expansion of the HC ...based upon the 1980 -2000 data ... That was 13 years ago, concerning a time span that years prior to that ... Do we think that's gone the other way with age ? - hello As of that report, the expansion was estimated to be 3 to 6 degrees of latitude. And we have 'hockey -sticked' the climate since. I don't know...but, integrating a 10 deg latitude expansion through a boreal winter ...that's probably enough to atone for fast winds. Here's the other thing...Those fast winds, I think... are causing polar indexes to register more positive, because it speeds up the flow - that mimics a stronger PV in general. Talk about the 'teleconnector interpolations' changing - yeah. Yet, all of this stuff needs a decade or two to get proven, and if all this were not enough...it seems these systems are also changing now faster than humans can spin out said proofs and actually have the consensus except them. Hell, we still call it "The General Theory of Relativity" ... when there is no empirical data that supports it being anything less than Law. And it's been 100 years