Typhoon Tip

well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO ...assuming it really lasts that long. And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere. It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections"

In the 1990s through about 2004 or '05 ... one could count on the over-under flopping negative enough in these marginal late mid range modeled setups, where the thermal layout looked like +2 with those 0C hole punches on colorful charts? - lol... Nowadays, as I opined half tongue in cheek a few days ago ...it seems more and more the flop direction tends to positive by crucial decimals and we miss out. I also get what you mean by the -AO .... that plus the +PNA really should "slow things down" a little, but I also think those indices battle with the speedy hemisphere thing that kicked in about 10 year ago and has gone on to set commercial airline ground speed records routinely every winter since... I think one flight, LGA to Hethro ...I think it was 3 hr and 51 minutes but don't quote me... maybe it 5 and change...but, but the plane was said to be doing sound speed relative to surface due to 200 kts sustain laminar flow and they had to open the throttle to maintain lift... wow. Anyway, I also wonder if the 'west' vs 'east' NAO orientation modulates things - in fact we know it does...how much or how little ?

Yup... and the N/stream ( just adding to your assessment there ...) is rather consistent as to when it dives through the Lakes. The 7/8th idea of yesterday had more "cold plausibility" ( if you will...) because the N/stream had a chance to time better... But this GFS solution seems to like the ICON and they are both now wrapping up a silver Nor'easter out of an entirely S/stream entity - or too much so to even work on marginality ...either way. I mean there's time... and, as this chart below shows, there is cold air near-by ...really close actually from a greater synoptic perspective, but it just won't integrate -

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. That ICON solution is rather fortuitously timed as a learning tool, because of how it summarily then jams that concept down one's throat... One can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors tauntingly avoiding it because the Germans hate Christmas... LOL

It's almost like this 'uncertainty period' itself was written on the wall ...when the GEFs started hammering a PNA mode changes, but the EPS was/has been hesitating. So far - not sure this has any value but might ... - the EPS seems to be slowly caving to the +PNA ... that "might" be an indication that the Euro forecast system is more suspect - But it is hard to blame the EPS/Euro camp entirely...because the GFS has had its own continuity headaches too - ...I think it's just a bad model performance period of time and maybe the PNA rise, while the AO and NAO correcting negative ( which, where the hell is the blocking then ?) , during transition season no less... it may all just be too much. I thought the Euro's genius was that it smoothed noise but heh -

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream. They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors. You need wave harmonics -

Whole evolution leaves s lot on the field too ... N/stream actually fails to capture /subsume ... long duration southern stream rolling under a marginal atm ... it’s okay

00z GFS set up is naughty at 120 hrs

18z GFS wave interferes everything for 384 hrs. Jesus

...it's funny how we all got our thing - i have an uncanny memory for patterns and indices ... but dates ? - luke warm if not cool on those -

word! I just got the 'little critter' in Feb on the wrong year but the other stuff was right - For some reason I always wanna put that damn thing in 04' ...not sure why - ..heh, it's not the first time he's had to correct me on that sucker. Oh I imagine 20 years from now it'll be 'No, that was Feb 03, the previous year'

I think Will may be right - I think we need to bump our recollect one year earlier - haha... my bad. OH, wait never mind - f me!

That winter went on to be a syrupy cold winter ..wow. It was a west based -NAO pulser - one of the last great NAO winters where NAO actually did mean storms and cold because it modulated the right way... Fickle index. But I remember -9 F on numerous mornings. That was the year ( early Feb ) that a "little Critter that bites" swathed 10" of "flurries" along the eastern end of the Pike, with 6" on either side out to 30 or so miles...out of nowhere sending NWS scrambling to now-cast a warning event -

Yup...I was living in Winchester then, which as you know is just 4 or 5 miles down Washington street from Woburn there... about 24" in our driveway... I don't think there was snow on the ground at xmass - but don't quote me...

Big wind just arrived here in interior NW Middlesex Co out along Rt 2... Est that was 45 mph gust in the canopy level and the house creaked when it white roared passed...

You know what this reminds me of ? In 2003, early Dec we had a southerly gale that pushed nearly 70 Dps clear to Manchester NH...replete with sheeting rains going sideways under street lamps... and even stopped raining long enough to just be very windy and spooky warm...then, a ribbon echo squall ends around midnight... two days later, we had a windex snow event that made headlines for how 1.5" of snow burst in temps that crashed from 36F to 19F over and that many hours, ... flashed I-95 and gridded eastern Mass ... 3 days later, ...well - 20" over Metrowest... Not saying this transition is reduxing that - no...but, but it reminds me if we get these 60+ DPs and this evening thrashing ... then, say the deal on the weekend is a cold advection pivot point, then a few clicks later that coastal manages to set up - does at least spatially remind me of that . spatially - I mean...we aren't going to be 9 F prior to any coastal in 8 days hahaha... that'd be a neat trick

something like that affect... metaphorically speaking of course but yeah. We're either going full in our f'n around with how to weasel out lol

Not holding a candle ...yet, to PVD but ORH is now gusting to 35 mph and they popped 55 F... this warm frontal intrusion is a fire-hose aloft man

We're wobbling tree limbs now and the temp has surged from 43 an hour.5 ago to 57! .... So, some form of either CF or warm frontal intrusion has punched this far N/NW into the region of SNE. Still getting jungle-drop steady R though...

ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern'

One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn'

I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5)

Yup ... and, like we said last night ... probably have to go on and off with these peregrinations for a couple days, too - I mean don't be shocked if say ...12z tomorrow we're back to that separate weirdness again... The 00z, 06z. and 12z operational GFS runs all have definitively different ideas on how to handle the flow coming off the NE Pac over the PNA evolving arced flow up over the NW Terr. of Canada and really...everything that happens on the 7/8th of Dec is going to come down to that being handled right and uh...heh, we aren't really there yet. Some of that mechanics is plausibly even based upon enhancements as the sourcing is deep oceanic basin regional... That's another thing about this PNA ..the flow is rather flat for numbers as large as CPC ( GEFs -based)... It may be adding to model discontinuity -

lol, I was noticing that as far as the GFS operational run goes... the deeper layer/mid level vortex position over Lake Huron has been pegged there clicking back some 15 ( not kidding ) cycles... ( Trop. TB) literally... It's like, clone-clone-clone-clone-clone.... all the way back, offering zero hope. The GFS is probably not as bad as we think as a model huh

Didn't ask me but ... heh, probably combines two primary motivational factors - ( Conditionalized expectations + recent events ) / 2 = impatience and losing site of normalcy ... The left side of that addition is formulated or encouraged over the recent years since ...really 2000, where 50% + autumns have featured air mass supportive, or outright pulling off...early snow events. You know? It's like entitled now... It reminds me of Wright Weather and early Eastern BB... and the mid Atlantic entitlement after Jan 1996. Five years later ... when internet social media emerged, they popped on the scene clearly ( and "justly") jilted because they weren't getting the snows that NYC was - I can believe we are closing in on 15 years since that era - wow... man. Heh I guess it's a bit of abstract reference at this point - But it doesn't help that recently we 4-6" ed another Halloween ... it seems ever since then there's been this palpable undisclosed 'okay, let's do this' and every time the pattern doesn't... you get grousing to make up for the missing wind gusts... I guess that call that "guffing" lol...