Typhoon Tip

Heh...one should not swing their emotional pendulum with this run.. Not sure how anyone can acknowledge in one hand that determinism ( predictability ..) is pretty much non existent beyond D 4 ... then, turn around on the next cycle and frustrate over a Del Marva track... that is beyond D 4. It's meaningless - futility of doing so all but absolute.

You know... that's a snow atmosphere too - I mean, you can see that with dynamics and a favorable track "UNDER" ( for f sake! ) our latitude, that's enough to get a blue cash-in or two. It really is just like a "boring monster" It's not just us -...I know I'm abusive in making fun of us in here. But, I was in line at a typical grocery store cashiered and bag-girled by the usual sub-Millennials ... and I happen to hear one say to the other, "I wish it would at least snow again if it has to be winter... " It's been on the news too. At the gym, the overhead televisions muted, the weather person ( FOX, NESN ...Harv or that women on staff there that's so transcendedly hot you're just like pissed off! ), they're all putting up graphics comparing snow this season to other years and trying to put it in perspective. It's really them doing it for themselves - trust me. I've worked intern for Harv and Mich Michaels back in the day, and met Mark "Frozen-then-thawed" They hate this. Trust me...they are miserable having to report the same punch-in 37-41 partly cloudy banality like a not so funny version of a movie starring Murray. I guess it could be worse. You could be an on-camera Met in the Pheonix market -

Holy shit are you kidding ... +6+ in ORH ... ? ho man... Ray's right. This is a helluva way to collect any gratification for witnessing interesting phenomenon when it feels shitty outside yet it's that "warm" - Yeah, Neptune is an inferno compared to Pluto - why choke my chicken! how riveting ...that's deliciously boring.haha making me laugh

Ah -hahahahahahahaha! Yeah ...sometimes when in lost fortunes are replaced by frustration in such elegant proportion ... it becomes difficult not to consider the super-agency theory - lol. The atmosphere does this, you know? It's like when it's got it in for a region it just doesn't relent - it hammers ...and when the region is dead and defeated, THEN, its' starts hammering ... Nature is cruel ... like an Orca (this winter) flipping a seal pup ... ah, we'd be the seal pup in that metaphor Like 2015 February - it's like Will said ( I think it was ...), we were merely mid way in the month having already shattered every 30 day snow record there is between here and Utqiagvik Alaska ... Yet, we were looking at 4th period blizzard watch, and a D8 high probability for successful verification just beyond.. It goes in both directions. The Earth makes sure ... And of course, we don't notice it when 80 or 90 some-odd % of the ballast times anomalies actually dole out in equaller proportions. In this case...we are being hammered by negatives .. that's just it. In philosophy that's basically it, the unrelenting form of plight. Question is, does it relent in time ? Back in 1956 ('57?), there was a March that racked up some 60+ inches from N. Philly to PWM after a pretty sandy serious of winter months prior. Seems harder to do that as this new climate paradigm is doing whack-a-doo things with Springs ( separate discussion vector ..lol - ) in general. But, the point is... it's academic to say, it's January f'um 19 .... You know, while on the subject, it occurs to me that all we need is +PNAP even just a little... whole aspect changes. Obviously we are in 'put up or shut up' scorched attitudes now, but we really are still in a subsume regime...Whenever we see blocking in the 60th N latitudes pearled, that is inherently slowing that W --> E coordinate relative to the 40 N. That is an "implied" cyclonic motion...and that's the initial state to get SPV's to crash in and fuse with S /stream features. We are not seeing that because the flow / PNA et al is just not allowing ANY western heights...so there's nothing to trigger those interactions - bypass prevail. But you know...? That's playing with matches there...

And whomever nails the 'whence' that occurs gets the parade and the ladies -

Well gee, Ray ... I'm impressed - Yeah, okay - if you wanna play the general appreciator of weather-related anomalies card, absolutely. We do not, under those auspices, disagree at all. Folks should know me - if a comet is whizzing by, that takes precedence. It's just that in here, this is not an appreciation for weather-related anomalies ... It's a psycho-tropic stimulus addiction ...one that is rooted in the sentiment of snow. That's the audience I was directing the previous post too - I'm being a little sardonic there but seriously, I agree that 2011-2012 has its own quirky charm and fascination when looking at the nature of this engagement with equal AVR. No disagreement from me.

Ha ! ... yeah but no ... can't agree. It's subjective so tfwiw - but 2011-2012 truly was absentia - ... this winter has SSWs and -NAO/-AOs ...etc, at least. That one, not only last the whole way, it never had any hope ... ....the whole way

Lol - In a practical real setting ? No much ... If one is not sufficiently protected in an air mass of that gelid amber, they are over the death threshold - like... the body has frozen solid, and the soul's essence long receded back into quantum information paradox that argues nothing is lost and destroyed in the real Natural universe ...and then the wind blows ? Doesn't matter - haha...

Oh ...it'll resume - This is how Gaia turns up the oven to the "Clean" setting on humanity. By obfuscating the direction of climate change with offset bullshit like this to instill doubt, people relax, and then she cooks us to our demise - eradication succeeds. Think 'toads in a pan of water slowly raised to boil,' in spite of all our conceits - nice. That Siberian cold is probably being manufactured out of the same ailing global circulation's insidious expressions of climate imperiled ...the same one that brought 300" of snow to Japan in 5 minutes last month ( sarcasm but whatever that was...) It's plausible if not probable that the entire hemisphere and the arrival of these circumstances et al are caused by a competing total systemic forces - GW concurrent when there's an attempt to "negatize the polar index" contributions to the total circulation. In fact, the speedy flow for a decade and counting is related; it's like this year is that, on steroids now that blocking is intruding into the affairs. It's a bizarre hemisphere to see blocking nodes set over top of 6 to 9 contoured height-lined westerly jet streams. That latter is not conducive to the former - I just think we are dealing with uniqueness that has never happened. And there may be times in the 300 years of awareness/ climo reconstruction efforts that bear some resemblance, but not the same in the absolute sense ...and it's in this latter sense that we are suffering for what manifests out of it. So some out-of-box philosophy there ..sure... But, in more practical terms, that Siberian depth is really just another expression of the proven right, "extremes" that the climate modeling has already been proven correct about.

Tempering the elation with a dose of objectivity ... Keep in mind, there is a propensity going back months ... to consummately correct all deep ranged middel to extended time frame features, downward in amplitude as those come into any sort of consensus - interestingly, right around the time ranges when confidence for actually being real, emerges ..roughly 120 hrs give or take a few cycles. Jan 26 just did this ...or is doing so.. Jan 29 most likely will as well. We've been through three pretty distinctly different pattern flavors: whatever drove Dec 17; that weird interlude that was really the absence of a pattern being a pattern in itself; now ( weird blocking + under ripped by a velocity surplus hemisphere + a PNA that is negative)/ 3 = N/S . So what that implies is that regardless of these patterns, the models still do this larger than life --> no ...the celebrity's human like the rest of us reality dosing along their management of features. And it is a behavior owned by all guidance ...UKMET to Euro ...GGEM and GFS ... tea-leafs. Seems to want to argue that it's just in the state-of-the-art of the technological ambit. I remember years where this was not so coherently annoying though ...so it's interesting. I am not sure why. Fun metaphor: The moon rising over the horizon. Optically, the image distorts by the atmosphere into looking quite foreboding .. as though it were actually going to crash into the Earth in a celestial doomsday event ... It's almost like the models see things hugely as they are coming over the distant horizon ranges ... In any case, this pattern does not lend to skill and it never has...as was hammered last week. That is still the case. So, putting that facet together with the aforementioned correction tendency, ...ugh - good luck.

I wonder if we’ll put some back to back blw normal days together here

That is the Miami Rule on steroids!!! wow... It can effect S/W morphology and cyclogen effectiveness in a different ways, but complete and utter vanquish absorption is rare actually. And, the model does it twice! First with the one that is lingering over S. Cal at 72 hours - takes that one over the Arklotex as a water-color vesper, then there's nothing identifiable of it 1100 km later over Tennessee. Then, the would-be system we've been denying we're tracking for the 26th it does the same thing. Neither feature even exists past the TV... How about the size of the polar high though?? my goodness... the entire domain of ORD-ATL-DCA is one big damming signal - Too many oddities in a single run ...willing to bet as others are joking - this is different in another cycle.

It's funny ... we were joking the other day about dubbing this winter the great whack-a-mole winter - All these "plausible" emergent storms modeled out there, and just when you bring your hammer down on one as though yeah...it vanishes before you can strike it as likely - Folks in here don't care about technology and modeling ... and best deterministic philosophy ...etc..etc... That stuff is far too lucid and objectively responsible ... No, this is about a given model runs ability to gas-light their endorphin/joy circuitry. - failing that is like NARCAN interrupting a good high. You know...I was at summer deck party a few years ago and a off-duty cop was there. Southern NH somewhere...I think Manchester precinct. But he was saying that they've shown up on a scene before where some ODer was slumped and unresponsive, having to administer that shit to the glowing eyed waste-oid mere moments away from their last heart beat, and it would work... Only the recipient would get pissed off for having their high ruined - We just spent the better part of mid day explaining matters. This Euro shouldn't really weight much ... But it's a NARCAN run ...

yeah ...I'm in Will's camp ...I don't see that there's any forcing on the AO registering at present. It's still "invisible" to the models et al until that tropopause /// coupling. If it does, and the -AO patterning favors Eurasian/Siberian conveyors ... fine - but utterly a blind dice roll for about a week to 10 days ... maybe 2 weeks.

This should be a required banner at the top of all log -ins for the next two weeks, just like the "no politics" reminder -

Any Meteorologist that called for an epic January based upon an SSW that didn't materialize until the first week of January ... does/did not understand thetotal model of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming gestation - TIME LAG! 20 days ( as illustrated in the annotation farther below ) For the general user/reader of this weather-related hobby/social media: You could do yourself a favor if you understanding that lag. If you had back in December, might have known better and been protected from the beguiling turns excitement-intending phrases by Twits We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet We have not seen the Arctic Oscillation respond to any SSW that has taken place yet Will and I mused about this a month ago ...and yup, that's been the best prediction leveled this winter thus far. We literally discussed in no uncertain terms how the -AO (erstwhile) would be mistaken and falsely connected to the advent of the SSW. Here we are ...... NAILED it... lol,. Heh, wasn't exactly a tricky foresight, no. Having displayed this and explain that ... Yeah, it's even possible that a -AO won't pay cold and snowy dividends, either. This one didn't - why should any future -AO be required to. So, part of the problem with the Twit toxicology of the Sociological dilemma is that no way does a Twit stupified dumb down idiocracy have enough space to elucidate a complex field of study and environmental problem solving required to understand the SSW... So, no Met should even push any vision of what one should mean to weather patterns and storm this or cold that - ... Maybe advertise one as imminent ? sure - but then direct the reader to a real study. Irresponsible informatica is going to doom Humanity.

Yes, and while keeping in mind that in a hockey-sticking CC world ( for those who embrace reality ) it is logical to consider the coin as steadily more weighted on one side. I realize your just conveying a statistical concept there ... but, applying this to the real world now requires a deeper look. Reiterating a talking point from autumn ... our 'flop directions' seem to less and less be favoring frozen verification types. Best to describe 'flop direction' via a description. Suppose one is looking at a middle -range modeled cyclone with +1 C swathed amid the NW quadrant of it's QPF layout: In 1995, that's a blue snow; in 2021, that's cat paws. And analyzing the two events may not demonstratively reveal very many differences - its part of the insidiously slow nature in which CC expresses. I do critique that idea, however ... advances in modeling over the last 25 years could certainly atone for that. Yet, climate migration is real - that paragon is sensitive to decimal-worth of change, because of the quantum nature of molecular phase-change physics. Because we are in fact in a polar migration wrt the climate banding around the hemisphere, that brings these disparate explanations into competition. It's subtle... It's insidious, but CC could very well be claiming these events. We are also event wealthy in recent decades. So, we are getting more snow in the aggregate purely by virtue of having more opportunities. That obfuscates and buries truths ... So the governing point of this example is that ...maybe just maybe stringing 3 or 4 years of "bad" winters while, say, every half decade we get a Feb 2015 ... is more common now. ... All of which is also buried in 'virtual climate' provided by the cinema age of weather modeling and the Internet engagement aspect - there's that too.

We'll broach that question when there's great blocking -

No, I did not - ha ... Truth be told ...I spend a goodly amount of recent energy explaining to folks that there's no use in prediction beyond 5 days in this overall circumstance, so at risk of being a hypocrite. Trying to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken shit pattern is tough.

What - your post does not logically follow - I'm not 'pooh pooh' ing anything - the model could certainly be a weak outlier. I'm asking - and it matters quite analytically -

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some - The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards. Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA... Digress - Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but. Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

mm... I dunno Kev I can distinctly recall 40 day stints of really not even seeing a flurry. I remember the weeks after that 1987 planetary alignment storm... that ended winter. Feb and March nothing... 1989 ? come on man - Thanks Giving was the whole winter that year pretty much. It's actually kind of a silly conversation point because we both know that every decade has ratters ... And even in 'partial ratters' that have a good event or two nested in dearths of events, those years will still put three week stints of ennui in the books pretty commonly. Realistically ? not, ..or should not be considered that uncommon

mm... that already empirically got torpedoed by December - sorry for the grousers ...

So, anyway, my take on the the 26th for anyone less guided by resentment and frustration: The 00z GEFs members clearly show the majority as carrying a significant system through the east between the 25th and 27th. In fact, ~ 2/3rd did so on the 12z suite, yesterday, 00z that improved to ~ 8/10. Question? to whom they avail, what is the EPS, PNA index right now ? If it were up to the GEF's PNA alone ( with no over-arching -AO/-NAO ) one might hunch we are heading for a whopper January thaw. ( Ha, did we ever truly freeze ). The teleconnector complex is burying any 26th signal though. Intense -PNA doesn't at first lend too well. I suspect this is a rareness that may materialize out of a rare hemisphere - frankly. It is rare to sustain blocking in a fast, velocity saturated circumstance. The blocking is real. The -AO is antecedent and trended heavily, and is getting that ancillary support from the SSW stuff ( tho I'm a bit about that for other reasons ). Technically, the NAO has not yet manifested on the charts, but is literally doing so today - as this thing is decaying in situ into a quasi 50/50 smear. The forces(ing) that is/has been driving the -AO along, is probably helping to ignite the NAO limb of the total NAO domain space. It's super complex - I'll try to make it brief. I really believe that the -AO from early December through last/this week, was an artifact of the hyper intense ( probably historically so ) +WPO, which by virtue of its depth more so than the polar region z-coordinate heights, caused the EOF calculations to consistently register a negative total AO index value. Math does not 'personalize' these values - it only deals with absolute values of D(z). If there's 150 dm of gradient, an index gets rather large. Doesn't matter 'how' it situates that gradient. In this case, we have a modestly high polar cap heights next to a super-massive, multi-nodal hole in the atmosphere between midriff eastern Asia and Japan! Then, the SSW takes place during; here we are the lag 3 weeks in time, and we see that the SSW is ?propagated? ( so it seems ) down to where it ?might? be coupling with the upper tropopause. This ( rather fascinatingly ) suggests two disparate forcing sources on the AO may describe the total. The former planetary wave mechanical variant ...effectively relays into an era that is SSW driven. Anyway, the -AO is real ...and it probably more so than not parlays a successful -NAO favorably. It's setting up a look that doesn't really lend to idealized structures. The 26th is a squeeze play because of all this. Those GEF members and off and on operational et al or injecting Pacific potency into the field, and then idiosyncratic handling of the western limb of the NAO domain will dictate whether that cuts or shears ... or even maintains enough mechanical presence along 40 N to pull off a narrow conduit Miller B. These are all on the table -

I know ..it's hilarious - I wonder ... the last 20 years ( we've had this conversation before - I'll keep it comparatively brief ...) we have had not only more snow than any other 20 year period probably dating back 300 years of climo ( check that; it just seems so), more importantly: It was also 20 years of constant cinema. The excitement quotient was concomitantly ...exceptionally dosing! Perhaps we are just conditioned to expect more drama now, and that "euphoria" drug we joke about, when opening the models and seeing 8 to 10 isobars closed off over ACK becomes ...almost 'entitled' ? We're talking years bombs and over-achieving SWFE and Katrina's and Maria's and Sumatran subduction thrust events...my god. Hell hath no fury like entitlement "unjustly" unrealized. Lol. Like, the sin of god himself to impose normalcy. just sayn' Afterthought: I realize we may not have actually had more 20-year totals than other 20-year blocks of time in the past... I do know that when it's on, we over-achieved more frequently per features and season. Btw, folks,..that is/was modeled by climate change science - fwiw... A metric was proposed all along by guidance and science therein, that the atmosphere holds more WV in a warming world. Mechanisms that release that WV will increase proficiency ...