Typhoon Tip

In theory ... a -NAO either materializing or already in place, particularly if the negative characteristic is over the western aspects of the NAO domain space ( D. Straight as a general theme ), that provides a block that prevents TC from moving toward that region. That supplies/connotes a continued west motion. There are other modulating factors on cyclone track of course. But that is one of the main larger scaffolding. You also need a solid, non- perforated subtropical ridge N to buffer it along... Lower shear... all that too. The problem with the present NAO: ...as far as I can tell, the GEFs automation for determining the index at CPC are reporting a "faux" -NAO over the next 10 days. The reason I surmise its artificial ( or 'fake' for lack of better word ..) value, is because looking at all individual ensemble members ( all 33 ), their individual orientation of the flow does not look like -NAO. By convention... that look should feature top heavy heights over arcing the higher latitudes, with the polar westerlies either pinching off underneath, or, doing very large undulate curvature around - which this latter form probably wouldn't be the case at this time of year, not with lower hemispheric gradient still associated to seasonal climatology... etc. Anyway, neither appears to be setting up in those members. Instead, focus on the 576 DM height contour at hour 168: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html ... roughly the nadir of the projected -NAO. That contour is displaced anomalously far N... from roughly lake Superior over SE Canada, out across the Maritime of Canada to S of Greenland - and it's orientation is nearly west to east, i.e., not curved around any "island" of positive anomaly or undercutting - neither version. So why the negative... ? The CPC calculates the index using the geopotential heights. The anomalies of that one metric is what ultimately determines the positive or negative result of the calculation ( if you really want a popsicle headache, you can crack open a statistical-math text and read about Eigenvectors and EOFS, "empirical orthogonal functions.. ) Anyway, my hunch is that the heights overall being unsually high as they cut through the southern limb of the NAO's total domain may be lowering the results of those calculations, when in reality ... the construct detailing of the flow is not very -NAO instructive, ...not in the typical sense. So faux ( or fake ) in this sense is kind of sloppy ...because the math is what it is. But the negative values appear to be materializing out of a calculation, that is really kind of failing to truly characterize a -NAO. it's not forcing a jet S along the E seaboard, ...instead, we are just getting this weird inconsistently, pallid weakness there as a result of "not really" -NAO.

Mm... I will admit, that's a better position for the cut-off wrt to climate in these matters. But we're still sooooo f ing far away ... man. Perfect other hobbies and graduate kids from High School before this thing is available to serious consideration.

GGEM's a weak analog of Sandy actually...

Out of nowhere the sun just burst forth... Back in now, but the satellite shows rather abrupt thinning inside this tube of shits - ...may actually salvage a late afternoon in the relative sense. Meanwhile, if you're driving west on the Pike, you go from murk skies and probably residual road spray, to zero cloud open sky sun over the span of 1.5 miles or something. All of western CT and western Mass are cloudless.

Ray's bunning for fun ..but, you can really see there that the U/A low could have captured, but I really strongly argue at this point that it fails to do so because the modeling is establishing suspicious beta-error, earlier on along the Sam's track guidance. I don't believe it is merely happenstance that the Euro, with correction/normalization schemes in that particular model that the GFS/GGEM/NAVGEM do not posses, is consummately W of these other guidance' ...a plausible error that actually begins by 96 hours then accumulates, and gets Sam too far out of reach to interact with that U/A low. That all said, the U/A/ cutting aspect of the flow is not very confidence. If that is weaker ...it could result the same miss, either way. Also, the position is wrong. Enthusiasts for storms want that closer to eastern KT - which at that range is not hard to correct towards... that parts tabled - For now, the blend of all guidance appears close enough to the "key slot" climatological lat/lon to monitor (~ 60 mi N of PR )

Lol, notwithstanding, no

My personal view on what is really evinced by this particular rendering ... ..is that those garland positive anomaly bands along the mid latitudes ... N and S hemisphere, are really more a functional artifact of the heights tending to linger high there. Quite possibly associated with the expansion into those latitudes, as discussed. The "symmetrical" aspect of that is the tip-off; HC expansion is a global phenomenon, one where positive anomalies would theoretically base-line as a modest positive rest state, but then pattern modulation occasionally combine to cumulatively cause those warmer nodes.

That run isn’t close it’s so absurd overall, first … the characterization stops there. not close dopey run

actually it isn't - there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to sea. next -

Yes...

Noted ... hinted above, I do wonder if the NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS are all to polar biased in the 48 to 96 hour range. Anything after that ~ range becomes academically unavailable to interest farther west ( most likely...)

The Sci Fi author in me would incline to imagine that 'near miss' capture there is an artifact of the GFS having too much beta-motion in the mid range - such that by the time it interacts with the cutting/cutoff low it's already gained to much latitude, and is able to partially escape. good sci fi errs on the side of plausibility - It's all way out there so, perhaps the best sci fi authors at this time are in fact the AI/ behind the modeling... heh. The Euro did not have as much polarward drag on its track, notable ... if still la la range. I just... I don't like very good set ups on D8 anything. It meas the only options are less ideal.

The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC. The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance. Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at!

If one is a morally responsible mentality storm enthusiast ( heh ...) you should prefer the southern envelope of those solutions in this graphic above. Those are through the "key slot" climo. The ones along and polar side of that thick, black mean track, as history has shown, those tracks slope off pretty quickly, as not going on to denuding life and structure off of LI and sending roofing material, pine bows and power lines to Montreal...

Well boo- yah .... for a 100 years over due. But, such is progress -

Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run lol

God you guys... let it go LOL hey take a look at this GGEM solution the tropics... holy conduit - something tells me if this comes to be the set up in 198 hours, media might be taking an interest -

I was kind of hoping that cane out there would get sucked into that NYC ender -

OH that's cool dude! where in ? Any chance to see the wild life... you could be very lucky.

On Sep 20 ? I guess ... I saw some climate records but it seems pretty rare to me to be in the 90s after .. circa Sep 15 but whatever - I get the gist.. Not that my opinion matters much ... but summer's back broke back in late August. What's happening since, however, is obfuscating factors. We are running positive height anomalies after the fact. Non-hydrostatic heights still running warm everywhere, muting troughs in the models heading into shorter terms... The look, and that behavior, don't spin very back breaky - because based upon linear climate... they aren't. We were 84 to 88 in three of the last February and/or Marches over the last 5 years, with 558 to 564 thickness.. It playing its self out in both ways. It's not allowing warm days, without cooling the hemisphere yet ( much ). Oh it will ... cool that is. But a day like today, we're getting cool weather, relative to heights. Sorry , we are. If it matters, we have to think of this crap in relative terms: 20 years ago, this is not broke when it's 79/69... Nor when looking at the 'hydrostatic' ( actual thickness), being near 570 for 3 or 4 consecutive days, that can't be very convincingly justified. If the sun came out, it would be 84/70 today.... we probably would not be conditioned to even engage this discussion - even though the back is broke either way. We just happened to mask that with SE flow ... heah. It's over relative to this year's temperature patterning and ability to launch. But it's kind of getting blurred

What ? ... curious -

i thought it was the GFS frankly ... It really never had "Peter out" more than just that - petering out - other that two model cycles. but, I don't have to be right about that either. lol. I just seem to recall the GFS loops at Fl State's only having Pete really for two runs, last week, ..one was near miss, too. I think tho to be fair - imho - the models in general did well.

True ... but, with the exception of what it means to snow vs liquid contentions, "noted"

oh ..okay, so already having the bug discussion. seriously though - this mosquito aspect is very seasonally late for those assholes

So when is the "Kill the bugs" aspect of this thread's title going to happen ? jesus fuggin christ. This is the latest in any calendar year I can recall having this many problems with this many mosquitoes... unrelenting. I open my car door ... dive in, slam it behind me as quickly and expeditiously as possible without injury ... 4 or 5 darting at the windshield. They're getting in the house just because my storm door has that stupid lag that slows the gate and they've "learned" to time it.