Typhoon Tip

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions. But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

Um ... what does "8-9/10" mean ?

May be related to the same reason why it was supposed to be mostly cloudy and showering last Saturday, but it was a blue bird 77 F sunny day with no wind and angels weeping with tears of joy - Automations and convenience therefrom inexorably leads to stupification ...and it starts to show up with systemic failures in subtle ways. Seriously ...it's immediately turning clear behind this warm front that apparently doesn't exist at WPC ..when looking at all synoptic metrics currently ongoing there is probably a diffused one smearing through.

We need a killing frost ... I have never seen a lawn growing, mosquito harvesting ad nauseam linger so fu-ing late in a calendar year, ever! It's miserable in broad sunlight. The tepidity of the sun is not warding them off anymore...so they're bobby around the knees and napes immediately - not a euphemism. The moment one leaves the door, their whir and stings also psychosomatically induce one to start itching by pure association. I mean... this does not happen this late in the year. And, my lawn is growing like bamboo, all species. Thick deep lush green that feels like walking on a mattress - I'm sorry... but these are like metrics that are subtle and not really thought of as very alarming, and they ultimately probably are not,... but that is climate change allowing these aspect to do this.

It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked. By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure - Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments. It's getting late in the year for those.. Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending. As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early. Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals. Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho. "Ida" was likely the main show. MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

Meh... cool pocket island in a sea of above normal geopotential heights ... But I tell you, ...I do still think October see either a synoptic snow event, or an air mass supportive of that... after the 15th, followed by return to +% to +15 daily anomalies returning - bit of a range there but I suspect, despite all institutionally accepted seasonal teleconnector methods, the HC is going to f'k all of them up. And no.. it is not AMO doing that -

Does anyone think this winter will be extraordinarily bad ... ? like, top 5 if not the lowest snow total in the collective basin history, marred often by near/at historic positive temperature anomaly episodes ... mmm ?? It seems there's been what 15 winters since 1950 that were "just" very bad, to the point of being almost shockingly so to those that want winters...and gritting teeth with guilt for those that don't, and I bet you dimes to donuts ... those winters are 0 -15 in winter forecast - i.e., not a single soul has ever forecast those. LOL And I so I ask, who has the ballz

I'm having trouble with the purchase price of the Euro ... That flow construct is completely convoluted, and that typically increases modeling error - but mostly.. it increases the probability of non-continuity in future runs anyway. Just my own observation ... that run tries to increase the geopotential gradients everywhere, between adjacent ridge and trough nodes, while keeping the wave lengths nebular and summer like. We'll see

Yeah... "Candygory 4"

Btw, I didn't throw this post a like merely because it implicates a funner more appealingly dramatic PARA solution. LOL. Seriously, we've been palpably observing so egregiously bad - and consistent to the point of predictive ass vomit - performance coming out of the Euro products suites in the tropics...for years, that it baffled explanation. Yeah, okay - just since 2018 .. .BULLSHIT by the way. They're partially marketing the reader there, because I remember back before then, it had a stingy genesis tendency - it did well "after" the cyclones materialized, but never had to absorb the guilt of false spin ups. Ha ha, for that fetish we could always rely upon the Canadian 'cumulus cloud --> cat 5' in 20 minutes ... Jokes aside, Johnny-come-lately shows up and it's, "okay, other models, here's what we're going to do with what you worked so hard and risked your reputation and succeeded in seeing.." Ha. It always pissed me off and it definitely predated 2018 ...sorry, it does. But, whatever. ECMWF is directly and non ambiguously stating that they are addressing the problem and as such, it would be really really awesome if that model stops finally hangin' it's ass over the Atlantic punch bowl and ruining the parties -

Having said all that to MJO ... The 00z runs ...yuck. Sort of abolished the elephant in the room, yesterday, that was a continuing along a trend to build features into an orientation that might offer pornographic hope to blue-balled storm enthusiasts... These 00z runs were proved yesterday was just another tease. It seems to me that two aspect swooped in ( and it is true in all guidance - which is interesting... It's not like just the Euro or GFS ..etc) and broke that trend continuity - The substropical ridge helping to guide SAM west over the short to early mid range, came in modeled weaker by just oh so crucial amount, that it starts initiating polar track jumps in small increments earlier on the track guidance comparing previous runs. And it's not a lot, but is still definitive and crucially so. By the time Sam gets west of 70 W, ...it's outside the climate 'key slot' ... This slopes off chances of TCs making far enough W at steep angle. That's A... B, the entire manifold of the synoptic construct from 100W to 70 W has changed all at once. The U/A/cut off is now more of a long wave trough like right on 70 W. That, in its self, ends it on a dime - no further consideration. None. Over. Both those are suspect in the objective sense. Both those are entirely reasonable and likely to occur in the abject subjective sense - LOL. sorry, but this method has merit - it just f'n does. No but in the objective sense, "continuity breaks" are always suspect until more runs come out and give substance by accumulative confidence. Duh, but also, the sampling of the subtropical ridge out there over the lower Sargasso Sea ...mm. Okay - we'll see. The other aspect that is obvious is that this whole ordeal is still playing out deep in the mid range or even early extended, so there's modulation time in the runs.

In theory ... a -NAO either materializing or already in place, particularly if the negative characteristic is over the western aspects of the NAO domain space ( D. Straight as a general theme ), that provides a block that prevents TC from moving toward that region. That supplies/connotes a continued west motion. There are other modulating factors on cyclone track of course. But that is one of the main larger scaffolding. You also need a solid, non- perforated subtropical ridge N to buffer it along... Lower shear... all that too. The problem with the present NAO: ...as far as I can tell, the GEFs automation for determining the index at CPC are reporting a "faux" -NAO over the next 10 days. The reason I surmise its artificial ( or 'fake' for lack of better word ..) value, is because looking at all individual ensemble members ( all 33 ), their individual orientation of the flow does not look like -NAO. By convention... that look should feature top heavy heights over arcing the higher latitudes, with the polar westerlies either pinching off underneath, or, doing very large undulate curvature around - which this latter form probably wouldn't be the case at this time of year, not with lower hemispheric gradient still associated to seasonal climatology... etc. Anyway, neither appears to be setting up in those members. Instead, focus on the 576 DM height contour at hour 168: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html ... roughly the nadir of the projected -NAO. That contour is displaced anomalously far N... from roughly lake Superior over SE Canada, out across the Maritime of Canada to S of Greenland - and it's orientation is nearly west to east, i.e., not curved around any "island" of positive anomaly or undercutting - neither version. So why the negative... ? The CPC calculates the index using the geopotential heights. The anomalies of that one metric is what ultimately determines the positive or negative result of the calculation ( if you really want a popsicle headache, you can crack open a statistical-math text and read about Eigenvectors and EOFS, "empirical orthogonal functions.. ) Anyway, my hunch is that the heights overall being unsually high as they cut through the southern limb of the NAO's total domain may be lowering the results of those calculations, when in reality ... the construct detailing of the flow is not very -NAO instructive, ...not in the typical sense. So faux ( or fake ) in this sense is kind of sloppy ...because the math is what it is. But the negative values appear to be materializing out of a calculation, that is really kind of failing to truly characterize a -NAO. it's not forcing a jet S along the E seaboard, ...instead, we are just getting this weird inconsistently, pallid weakness there as a result of "not really" -NAO.

Mm... I will admit, that's a better position for the cut-off wrt to climate in these matters. But we're still sooooo f ing far away ... man. Perfect other hobbies and graduate kids from High School before this thing is available to serious consideration.

GGEM's a weak analog of Sandy actually...

Out of nowhere the sun just burst forth... Back in now, but the satellite shows rather abrupt thinning inside this tube of shits - ...may actually salvage a late afternoon in the relative sense. Meanwhile, if you're driving west on the Pike, you go from murk skies and probably residual road spray, to zero cloud open sky sun over the span of 1.5 miles or something. All of western CT and western Mass are cloudless.

Ray's bunning for fun ..but, you can really see there that the U/A low could have captured, but I really strongly argue at this point that it fails to do so because the modeling is establishing suspicious beta-error, earlier on along the Sam's track guidance. I don't believe it is merely happenstance that the Euro, with correction/normalization schemes in that particular model that the GFS/GGEM/NAVGEM do not posses, is consummately W of these other guidance' ...a plausible error that actually begins by 96 hours then accumulates, and gets Sam too far out of reach to interact with that U/A low. That all said, the U/A/ cutting aspect of the flow is not very confidence. If that is weaker ...it could result the same miss, either way. Also, the position is wrong. Enthusiasts for storms want that closer to eastern KT - which at that range is not hard to correct towards... that parts tabled - For now, the blend of all guidance appears close enough to the "key slot" climatological lat/lon to monitor (~ 60 mi N of PR )

Lol, notwithstanding, no

My personal view on what is really evinced by this particular rendering ... ..is that those garland positive anomaly bands along the mid latitudes ... N and S hemisphere, are really more a functional artifact of the heights tending to linger high there. Quite possibly associated with the expansion into those latitudes, as discussed. The "symmetrical" aspect of that is the tip-off; HC expansion is a global phenomenon, one where positive anomalies would theoretically base-line as a modest positive rest state, but then pattern modulation occasionally combine to cumulatively cause those warmer nodes.

That run isn’t close it’s so absurd overall, first … the characterization stops there. not close dopey run

actually it isn't - there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to sea. next -

Yes...

Noted ... hinted above, I do wonder if the NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS are all to polar biased in the 48 to 96 hour range. Anything after that ~ range becomes academically unavailable to interest farther west ( most likely...)

The Sci Fi author in me would incline to imagine that 'near miss' capture there is an artifact of the GFS having too much beta-motion in the mid range - such that by the time it interacts with the cutting/cutoff low it's already gained to much latitude, and is able to partially escape. good sci fi errs on the side of plausibility - It's all way out there so, perhaps the best sci fi authors at this time are in fact the AI/ behind the modeling... heh. The Euro did not have as much polarward drag on its track, notable ... if still la la range. I just... I don't like very good set ups on D8 anything. It meas the only options are less ideal.

The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC. The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance. Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at!

If one is a morally responsible mentality storm enthusiast ( heh ...) you should prefer the southern envelope of those solutions in this graphic above. Those are through the "key slot" climo. The ones along and polar side of that thick, black mean track, as history has shown, those tracks slope off pretty quickly, as not going on to denuding life and structure off of LI and sending roofing material, pine bows and power lines to Montreal...