Typhoon Tip

I'll tell you though.. there are some extraordinary heat signals setting up from California through Pheonix to the Kansas/Nebraska and Texas regions.. The positive mode of the PNA in the summer can be really bad for them...

You know ...this is gonna seem a bit 'out there' as a perspective on matters. But it's really like models are catching the atmosphere doing a weird thing: keeping the lower troposphere cold amidst a warm non-hydrostat. The 500 mb circulation medium, really from Thursday out to the end, seldom ever sees the 582 isohypses collapse S of BUF-BOS ...yet, there are several days in the GFS oper that would have it struggle to make 71 over the course of the next 12 days. There are some mid 80s in there, granted, but ...if we're doing that down here, it's not exaclty 'warmer' up there when in the absence of 'over-the-top' .. We've sported temps in the mid to high 90s at 582 heights... but this has been going on where the heights are not low, only the hydrostatic heights and mainly below the 800 mb level have been disproportionately cool.

Same here... been bouncin' 93 94 over the past hour. I realize DPs are down but it feels hot. We've gone and done it

Check out Logon ... can that be right? ESE at nearly 20mph sustained for over an hour, and they're putting up at 86 F temperature. wth. I wonder if the nearer coastal SSTs are beginning to respond to all this surface pile up from unrelenting llv shits flow -

Plus ... Kevin. Huh huh!

Same down here. I mean you know I have a weird diurnal fetish but this is 3rd on the change for me this spring and summer. It was 63; it is now 93. Dry as a mo' fo though... wow. It's like lick one's lips dry. Never thought we chap in late June but maybe this is another CC gem. I dunno. If one owns a garden, best to leave a hose just above trickle rates at the high end and let it circulate around the top soil - do NOT spray the leaves. I see people spraying their garden foliage with near mist under lasing sun around this town... huh.

It's funny you mentioned that ... I was thinking about that or a summer around then ( perhaps that was it ), whence there was a freak kind of winter look over eastern Canada, simultaneously, while also sitting there processing ...whatever Juliana was talking about over brunch - ( forget it ... one has to understand the mind of the eternally afflicted ) You know, one thing that I noticed when looping these oper runs. The non-hydrostats don't really fall very far beneath 582 at Boston's latitude, despite those open circular sander looking grinder troughs running through S-SE Canada. In fact, really only for 6 -12 hours, two different intervals, otherwise, they are at or above that metric. Despite the look of that ... it's not a "cold" look. It's a FAST look. One thing that is for certain, either way... that is very anomalously fast velocity jet for this time of year. But it's not a circumstance native to just this out look -it's been pretty much in the books as a seasonal bias. It's been that way every summer too since 1998 but I won't care to argue ... This really strikes to me as an example of the expanded HC... It's "pressing" +height anomalies into the 40th/mid latitudes... and that induces unusually steep gradient in that region. It's documented stuff. I mean I hate to bring it up. I realize how sexually aroused Ray gets when he reads H and C in capital letters in any sentence that implicates climate change, however subtly, is augmenting circulation modes ...but sorry - it is what it is. I'm not making this shit up myself... Altho - I feel I deserve some credit because I began noticing higher ambient velocities prior to the papers getting published, and I remember commenting way back in the 2010s about noticing higher heights pressing N from the S... but whatever - I don't give a shit. As long as Ray is annoyed ...I think we can all agree there's really a systemic change

Not even July and we have established a solid MDR conducive pattern, as well... have an MDR wave about to designate - pretty impressive on both accounts. 94L isn't merely some frontal booked astride the GA coast or coughing partially exposed thing in Gulf (NHC uses as an early awarenes/PR device...lol) It is one of those that is revealing its presence by torquing the entire ITCZ field prior to convection - a real wave.

It's interesting what's going on in the models - the operational versions... and they're all carrying on with the same idea, too. For the next week to 10 days, they are ejecting Sonoran/SW heat released air masses then taking them along flatter arced trajectories, all the way across. The heat plume wend their N edges to about mid state Michigan's latitude ... Then, ESE from there. They miss our region but are however close enough that their skirt +15 to +18C 850mb does occasional waft over us. We may not make big heat numbers, but an above normal look. Yet, the flow construct above the border with Canada looks cold. The Euro in fact does get 20 to 21C in here at least for one day..I think next Sat... This footprint pattern seems to then set up a similar scenario later on. It's like today, then Thu -Sat, another two day lull, and then another flat surge maybe D10 -12/13 The whole while, the flow construct along and N of the Can/U.S. border just cannot seem to shake these blocking nodes, which the models even gather into a SPV structure over eastern Canada that sets over top. It's kinda strange... Typically when +16 to +21C charged cyclic ejecta swath the country, there is more subtropical ridging...

Mixed motivation ... Like, I have 3 or 4 home stations tied into Wunder's network, all within 1.5 miles of mi casa ... I've come to find that their average is within a degree or metric of the average between KFIT, KASH, KBED. It seems the need isn't really there. It's a perception of need ( in my opinion ..) and I don't like that. It's a principle dislike I carry on with about western possession-based economics ...which gets into a whole nother popsicle headache philosophical purity thing that I'm sure everyone on here is just dying to hear about...lol I just I don't get the purpose, when any variance between those access points/methods is pretty much going be 0 after having installed a device imby.

give it 3 hours

Yup... BDL just surged 6 F in 25 min... 75 to 81 ... We're probably going to see some spikes here soon...then level slower rises to 90

Yeah...I was casting that sentiment to ... k12345 or whatever his/her handle is ..that acclimation plays a factor ( obviously ) in how 'heat' is perceived. I mean, we probably don't really even mention today and tomorrow in mid August, as by then, we've had at least 8 different failed heat waves that were forecast to be significant threats for big numbers ... that ultimately resulted in 89.7's ... But for the time being, 91 down here with 60 dps is hot.

Odd... NWS sites all seem to be holding the temp down farther than it really is? I realize these home sites tied into various Internet source/networks are not official ...but when everyone is 80 to 82 and BDL and ASH are both stuck at 75, plus, it physically appeals to be in the 80s out side ... that strange. Meanwhile, ORH is 77 ?! ORH is warmer than BDL, on a sunny morning in June under a building heat pattern... okay I do see that everyone is within a flag wobble of dead calm right now... maybe there is a very thin decoupled layer around these ASOS sites, where by advantage of 1,000' altitude, ORH is getting more mixing - so far. How's all this for crushingly nerdy tedium LOL... oh god, please help me find a life

Yup... this appears to be the canvas into the first week of July ..perhaps beyond. I've been more than less pushing that same idea, that we flirt with higher potential but more likely we do maintenance +1.5 dailies. In other words, the CC signal ( partly kidding) I think it's interesting that there is such an active R-wave signal around the hemisphere this late in the season. I wonder ... should that wane off more akin to climo, what happens out there. Talkin' deeper July

As an aside it doesn't anecdotally recall for me that they are doing very well with the west coast, nor locally, over the past month. Despite our 'sensible memories' on where and what the weather has been and done... we are modestly above normal at all climo sites for June. Meanwhile, it seems these day 8-14 anomaly projections have always been neutral to below average over this region. That, and... the same is true for the west coast. I seem to recall a lot of outlooks that similarly called for neutral or even blow normal centered on California, meanwhile, they've cycled through perhaps 4 different headline-able heat criteria .. including the one ongoing now, for the Imperial and Central Valley - this time extending up in latitude to coastal Washington/Oregon. They've been very good over the Arklotex region and the MS/Missouri Valleys, however. It's likely ensembles are too amplified - in and out metrical analysis ... We sort of see this anyway ourselves, as we routinely have to modify these GFS Octo vortexes over Ontario - we just f'n did that over the last 2 days. The 4th of July, to which fits in the d10-14 range (btw..) had a 540 dm obtrusion of cold into NE for three runs... Gone. It's a seasonal trough at this point. So... point being, the ensembles probably are not dispersive enough and mirror ( to some degree (pun intended haha) ) the operational tendency to core out super massive black holes. I think nested in that confusion is a clearer truth, however, that we are not seeing any kind of semi-persistent eastern continental heat dome/ WAR -like circulation modes. Yet ...I mean, I'm not debating the whole of the season here... Sometimes Junes can be assholes with the pattern.

It was never slated to be big heat numbers this weekend, no. Heat around here is seldom ‘long lasting’ but … 90 is 90. Acclimation plays a factor and for most NE’ers 90 is hot. Also … in this type synopsis most locations have a shot at being a click or two above machine interpolations. As far as coastal locations … it depends on the flag wobble. If it doesn’t happen to be offshore at Logan for example they’ll be farted on by Boston’s bum pointing right at them.

Hot weekend in store... It's already coming in...The temp here has risen 5 F since 3pm ... now 80 ..after the thunder passed earlier. The NAM grid has very little temperature falls nocturnally out at Logan with SW offshore flow developing... and then it's up to 31 and 33 in the 2-meter both tomorrow and Sunday afternoons. So, whether y'all are grousing ( but in private really celebrating) that corny GFS look out in the the extended, at least in the foreground there's plenty of summer to be had. Also, there still a flirtation, synoptically, with siggy heat this next Thur-Sat

...This happens as white privilege continues to gentrify their native habitat

Yeah... I agree there are some terms ... really laughably included - or assumed to be a necessarily part - of the whole movement to cleans ourselves of these cultural biases and so forth. Like, 'slave to' in electronic and IT ... it has nothing to do with humanism in that context. But perhaps the mere specter of impropriety is enough to impugn for intent? That's fascist in a lot of ways, if we really want to drill into the philosophy. Redskins is comically obvious the other way, tho - yup. My only point in this discussion is that we need to be careful that we aren't inadvertently filtering or biases based on a real phenomenon - white privilege is real. There's evidences of it everywhere. But unfortunately, ...a lot is intangible and harder to explain or outright see. Heh, it may be why everyone is changing names and labels, as sweeping reform doesn't bog down in semantics over what is and isn't allowable. Yeah ( LOL ) this isn't really weather-related, huh -

Well ... yeah, that element you describe is at the heavier gradated end of it. I was raising the point - or trying to...heh - that white privilege "influences" even those that try to see thru it. I don't think the individuals involved in this thread's morning exchange are 'racist' or 'misogynistic' ... but we are of this latter ilk. It just can't be helped. Not seeing or sensing the urgency in being called an Indian and so forth, struck me as abandon by circumstance just the same. I don't know what the percentages are ... but yeah, there are those that don't want or care to ever see thru it [ enter any myriad of reasons contributing ... from basic morality, to plebeian and/or "traditionalism wit's shimmering example of enlightened insight" ] By the way ... while on the subject of sociodynamic woes: Roe v Wade just got overturned... Just one small step for man, one giant leap into a populism regression ...completely not within the doctrine vision of this society's founding forefathers - Prediction: the conservatives won this 4 .. 6 year coup interval, ...but they just f'ed themselve out of the longer result; election and voting turn out because this will probably galvanize a movement against. I don't know tho -just a guess.

Just playing devil's advocate ... Those in this conversation presently hail from a cultural heritage steeped in this thing called 'white privilege' Oh, we don't think of it as such. We have complicated lives that piss us off, too. And take things away from us. Afflict struggles that f shit up ...etc. What privilege, right ? But fact of the matter is, those who are not of that cultural bias, encounter just as many life travails, PLUS a smoldering sideways looking society they were born and native to, PLUS 'institutional assumptions and stereotypes' It just is what it is, and is quite true and real. We live in an era now that for whatever complex sociological reason, has become intensely introspective ... exposing these aspects. From Me Too to straight up racism and back, all of it is exposed. And unfortunately, "labels" ( including team labels ) are examples of the institutional assumption - See, you have to be in pain, to understand the angst in being called an "Indian" - something as whit folk, we never really have. We can vicarious attempt and/or be sympathetic all we virtually force ourselves to be, ...and perhaps really feel. But it's never the same. Sometimes helps to make an example to compare. Suppose you created a new NFL team, like the Vegas Raiders, only you called it the Vegas Gay Rapers instead. Does that seem right? I mean, since we are human beings, and an absolute machine or "Vulcan" -like dispassionate gearing of society is IMpossible to achieve given our nature at a species requirement, you get into false-logic problem when allowing degrees of egregiousness.

Heh ... there is a SW heat release, but it is more so in the operational runs than the ens means. That said, this recent closed low retrograde causing a stalled band of cloud and showers thing ...that was ferreted out by the operational runs and the ens means had to capitulate. Sometimes these higher resolution/souped-up versions will pull from the other direction like that. It's coming across at a lower trajectory than is ideal for us here, though. We're along the synoptic N edge... in a summer that although young, is showing early signs of nadir-ing the flow over NE whenever it can. I suppose for heat/summer enthusiasts, you gotta start somewhere ... maybe this one will do what none other could before: get here The only thing is, there's a elephant ass vortex rollin' through Canada along the 55th parallel... The GFS, as is typical at this range ( 168 - 200 hrs) accumulates too much depth in that feature ( 00z ), shamelessly ending up with a 528 dm non- hydrostatic height core (D8, 00z) while the NH enters the hottest climatological heights time of the year... no problem - It's been a problem with the GFS guidance I've noted for the last several years actually, that it always is the deepest vortex guidance at D8.. It seems to correct as it get closer in time, but along that temporal outer seam between the late mid range and extended...? PF posts happy and giddy about trough parades... But hey - we have model cinemas that our forefathers never got to be so psychotropically addicted to, lubing our moods with dopamine drips our otherwise dysphoric lives fail to provide. They certainly serve a purpose. Thing is... the GGEM and Euro do something similar - which is to mean, they kind of end up with too much L/W power out in time, too. They arrive there for different reasons, tho ( probably). The GFS, I think ... accumulates /integrates dynamic cooling surpluses that integrate mechanics. The Euro has a normalization scheme that tends to suck the life out of smaller wave protuberances giving their energy to the L/W trough ..thus, falsely creating constructive interference to convert that one lottery winner cumulus cloud into D9 coastal bomb. The GGEM is just an amp happy POS out there in time no matter what.. Where as I, as usual... tried to pen something simple and quick but forgot along the way ... no one reads length anymore. I think the models may "fill" that vortex over eastern Canada along it's trajectory way. That could provide a more N ejection axis for the kinetic air layers. It's tough though...because even though everything above is true, we have a separate kind of a cold butt-plug problem going on that is causing the flow to cut off/ curl back SW in NE .

Punchin' the clock on what appears more and more to be a dependable global-scaled aspect/concern during warm seasons.. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-summer-swelter-persistent-spirits.html

I had heard/read of marine heatwaves in the recent past, but the 'direct' causality aspect is a little new to me. Meteorologist's inquiry I'd be interested in the fuller explanation of the total circuitry there - I mean it's not like there is some button pushed that has a label reading, "cook fish" It's easy to imagine, anthropogenic C02 and/or other anthropogenic flux attributed warming, then causes the planetary circulation modes to change. The SS stressing patterns change with it. That disrupts the prior thermal distribution. Given time, that then integrates to depth ... etc. But there is also conduction thermodynamics in the quasi oceanic-atmospheric exchange. Heat source/sink in either direction should obviously matter. Example, warm water does not evaporate as fast into warm air that is by nature already holding more water vapor. Less phase change means less cooling of the water. Also, I am not certain, but I wonder if IR radiation, the other way a black-body cools, is also effected because the ocean and the air then come into equilibrium at a higher temperature, such that the water doesn't cool as fast from that mechanism, too ( it does not radiate heat at the same amount). These factors prooobably make up a lot or some of that circuitry? But ... I don't have access to a retinue of over worked red-eyed grad students crunching numbers to back my rise to insight glory here ... Anyway, these seemingly minor lags in winter cooling, set up the following warm seasons to achieve warmer and warmer SST states ... It doesn't take a huge leap of intuition to see how that's a kind of "quasi" ( or like a -) run-away effect.