Typhoon Tip

well... it kinda isn't, because that's cloudy murk and misty light rain east flowin' rhea. I mean, obviously at 384 hours discussion is not warranted, just sayn'

I just saw an internal memo that exposed that the modeler's are doing this on purpose, interestingly enough... The exact motivations for parameterizing/forcing the run to illustrate this physically excessive disparity, and seemingly deliberate singling out of SNE ...was not explicitly elaborated but the experiment was an apparent success -

annnd that means you work directly with clients, then? sorry - I know nothing of social work. They allow you to prescribe medication with a Master's degree though ?

I guess you're manacled to the blazing speed of changes in state protocols and accessibility ... so Remote work won't be an option until the grid actually fails, at which point it will be moot -

This whole mess today was moving along at the rate of winter synoptics. anomaly in that regard.

Oh .. I forget. That Hurricane Kevin

I do this too - it's gotta be the abusively unrelenting jet pattern configuration that looks like I'm convinced of its subconscious directive dreaming influence. haha

If they survive scrutiny and the rounding convention shit ... a lot of sites are nicking 90/ dp in the 64 range Not bad. We should be good for 92's ... probably the hottest day in recent weeks, I'm guessin'

I'm sure you've heard the expression, 'dry begets dry' I've read years ago that aridification of land can 'suck' moisture out of the atmosphere - not as efficient as evaporation of moisture out of soils but it does go the other direction. We can sort of hint of that happening here, with DPs struggling to get to 65 N of the Mass Pike, despite hours after hours of stream-lined flow from an upper 60s source. Hi resolution sat loop shows scouring shadows N-S in the Hudson Valley ... we could be witnessing a feedback where marginal theta-e injection is not sufficient to offset the absorption - just wondering... But the whole axis of instability and triggering and all that is too far west, either way... Without DP issue, this looks like that typical scenario where late evening what's left comes through for us eastern folks as anvil exhaust light .. moderate rain for 25 minutes and a distant boom.

this would be a very good scaffolding should one venture into the Bahamas ...

Y'all should start wiring some internal psycho-babble circuitry around the notion of winters not being good, more likely than being good.. moving forward//a part of how the changing global environment forces our local climate paradigm. That's code for, get used to it. There will be good times... but they will be outnumbered by bad perception eras. Now, some of that neg-head perception will be biased in unfair personal greed ( LOL ) and borderline delusional expectations... But even accounting for that bag of cats, there are left over real dogs in the bad winter manifold. We have seen accelerated base-line mid level jet fields all over the planet, regardless of polar indexing and ENSOs ...all of which are screwing the previous more stable statistical correlation/teleconnection projection methods, including ...seasonal outlooks. Those that don't except this will default to seeing the world through a dysphoric lens and never be happy. Those that do... may take joy/appreciation in smaller fan-fair. Such that when the increasingly rarefied big result happens... that'll be the some seriously awesome cocaine! In a hundred years of climate change ...those folks won't have ever known what a Feb 5-7 1978 looks like outside of memory cards restored from the dystopian rubble world.

ha... I was being droll - I get it... winter + scorched is an interesting motivational circuitry. HAHA

This is embarrassing but I admit to not understanding how the definition of scorched-earth applies to what this engagement is/means to people ?

Be my guest ... you can even do so without citing the source I don't go anywhere outside this sub-forum space ...save occasional peeks and missives over in Don Sutherland's climate threads - otherwise no. Don't dare. Not until Brian or whomever really runs this show not only strips that 'Buckeyfan1's' moderator status, but then bans the c-sucker's membership - along with any other petty little superiority basement trolls they are allowing to run amok ... That way, you post it and you start getting PMs or post pot-shots that explaining why your insights are garbage- they just allow too much disrespect that is frankly not even asked for - one should not want/need/seek their recognition. But you just don't do that to people you don't know... Social mores ftl

Sort of indirectly related ... This relates back to those aspects re the summer pattern bias being "fake" cold? ... Not entirely, but ...the structure of the flow has been a facade of cold more so than not. There have been some cooler air mass latched ons - but not really very many. Too many 80s days inside those; no, the chilly nights we have observed are not/have not been because of CAA. They were home grown radiator results from having such parched DPs in the area. Deserts drop to 32 and rise to 100 as an extreme example. We've still managed 84 those recent two days down here along Rt 2 in N-central mass, despite 48's or whatever the lows were "lying" about the cold air mass - and that's sort of been part of this last 45 days of persistence. Proof, we are modestly above normal across SNE's sites. Not entirely lying... I mean thermodynamic/wet bulb temperature is probably more important, physically, than all else ... but you get my meaning. I just suggest this unrelenting pattern bias to pack heights back west is not actually coupled with the kind of lower heights we are more conditioned via education and experience to thinking we should see back east. Those paltry lapse rates you describe sort of exposes that reality ? All it has really done for us is stymie big heat from getting here. Nothing else.... it's like the whole behavior of the thing was singularly destined to prevent that one metric - kind of amusing...

mm... not a fan of having morphed aspects into a necessity to upgrade down there. Let the chokin' begin... I guess, however, we already have 60 to 65 dp advected in as of dawn and we're working it over with ample sun. The idea that the ceilings were too pessimistic/SW flow climo was the right call though, as there's clearly more clear skies and insolation heating going on. Most locales from PHL to PWM are already in the low 80s/low 60s... So there might actually be enough in situ along the northern extension of risk to sustain activity. It really just comes down to bulk instability - if there's enough, there's enough.

The model has yawed dramatically between the 06z look and the immediate/previous 00z look, on every run now for 5 cycles. I suspect the poorer contnuity is a nod in favor of your leaning/ I concur... My thing is that I don't know if it will result in so much heat - per se. As I was mentioning yesterday, I am more confident of the 'flow relaxation' than I am of the higher heat and or any ridge propagation east. Pattern changes sometimes begin that way - but doing so in the middle of summer whence there is a natural dearth of forcing larger-scale mechanics is heh... Some of the relaxed look could also just be intra -seasonal nebular summer climatology/circulation mode, too.. Bottom line, the sensible impact is bit less certain. The 00z Euro/GFS combo has a 4 day heat wave. 06z GFS ... has 66 at Logan one of those days! Can you look at KFIT? I'm telling you ...that hygrometer needs calibration. It's registering 57 and all other NWS sites, including EEN over to MHT are 61 to 63 ...as well as BDL/BED/ASH... It's a dry hole there all the time.. curious what other Mets think

NAM lingers DPs into Tuesday seems like the front’s trying to washout. Euro had looked a bit slow and non committal at 12z too.

Did science ever figure out what purpose mosquitoes necessarily need to provide in order for ecosystem vitality?

That actually gives 4 .. 5 day 92/73 style heat wave east of the hills

Blocks big western heat but opts instead for WAR-like airmass surging up the coast from heights retrograding into the MA

Vastly different GFS run

ALB FOUS grid exemplifes ^ 24007695916 -1694 031913 73261911 ... up to 26 C in the T1 WITH RH in the ceiling levels < 60% ... also note the wind is popped around to 190 deg in mid boundary layer. Hydrostatic hgts to 573 dm also suggests the theta-e is stacked some in the sounding so this looks like CAPEy 18z NAM run. NAM,... abut the only thing good about that models is 30 hr lead convective signaling... At least that was the case back when it was the ETA lol