Typhoon Tip

This looks to me like it has a sneaky chance at 0-3km direction helicity being more positive than the "unidirectional" bulk shear contribution/focus noted by SPC. It's just awareness of local climatology when you have a pre-frontal trough tending to form ahead of the main cfront, and then along and ahead of that feature, the lower level gradient not being too strong to overwhelm, the wind actually veers more S in the Hudson and CT R Valley and also somewhat so east of ORH hills - should anything survive into that area. The other aspect is that with DP coming in overnight/predawn ( diffused warm front associated with hygroscopic advection) and that fits climo for things to cut loose later those afternoons. I also suspect we may do better with morning heating. One, sw flows tend to be too pessimistic with ceilings in the models. Two, aridity in the area is likely to gobble up some wet bulb and dry the column as the theta is advecting in. You win for more sun, and getting CAPE back with the T

Looked to me like 86 to ping 88's in the area, and that's what's happening across the NWS sites. The home stations are all 134 but that's typical on a sunny day of wizardly awareness to the necessity for environmental awareness/calibration consistent with garden variety enthusiasts .. kidding, but the DP's supposed to shed in late - admittedly though...not seeing that very convincingly, upstream. EWR is still 88/57 so not exactly at the doorstop yet. Still, the steady advection probably works with surface based radiation to keep us elevated over previous nights and tomorrow will be steamier. Not sure about NNE per se, but this forum's too f'n big

We shouldn't be surprised... I've been ranting about it for over a month... every 2 .. 3rd day, the models try to usurp the pattern and remove the SE Can flow nadir - Euro's 00z run may be the most egregious example of that yet. Only to have this same 12z GFS routine just cancel the effort. I dunno - I did see more individual GEF members biting on this pattern change thing. I can also see an argument for the GFS being too R-wave happy in that range ...a necessary artifact for its bias to accumulate too much cold heights/gradient out in time. So not ready to pull the plug but it's like Brian said... keep persistence in mind -

The one at the end of the run is a sub 564 dm phaser though - It's lala time range like you say, but this model won't relent until it succeeds autumn on August 3rd and the seasons first synoptic snow by the 20th

It seems the background zeitgeist is really becoming numb to the summer heat stuff... How many times can a person read or hear a headline espousing dire heat, ...while sitting in or near access to environmentally controlled option? Eventually it's compartmentalize for later consideration when it comes to time. 'Okay - it's part of global warming' as they return to the pressing attention of the moment, 'whatdya want me to do about it?'

Mm... I wouldn't say 'clock is ticking' in spirit of what that means, on just July 11. Plenty of time... I'd say that on Aug 11. I mean, if we're going to play that interpretation game, we don't typically get very large numbers in June anyway ( although that may be changing in CC/future... who knows), so we're only 11 days into the "hot climo" - it sounds like rushing things.

Oh sure... Personally? I don't play the inventory game...I'm just reporting what it looks like going forward, and that folks should probably not expect the same as where we've been. If this/these changes did not appear legit, I wouldn't bother. But to answer your question for the sake of muse, ... mm, I kinda do mind that... I don't like having to wait out 90 days of anadyne nothingness in the winter.

Some of the GEFs individual members ( 00z suite ) actually look more Euro like and even add some, like this guy above. That's 606 ping DAM over ORD there! ... zomb. Just to be goofy for a moment, given what's been proven heat wise can happen already, and our own points of discussion re synergizing big heat globally and coming home to roast... et al, is there any doubt that 100 F plexus above? The means is obviously less than this. In general I agree, and as this method of 'cross guidance' also suggests/adds confidence, it's probably more legit this time that these laze faire days of wonder may become rarer.

Not to be a nudge but the hemisphere might be entering a regime change and/or 'relaxation' of the recent ~ 50-day (and counting) persistence. The verdict is till out on which... It's been utopia, really. I was just commenting outside this social media, this is the 3rd consecutive morning dawned utterly flawless in the heavens, in every direction or dimensional metric of observation. It's like mesmerizingly serene, in still purified air of low DP under unadulterated blue being penetrated by cathartic morning sun. Some 50 mi visibility air mass lingering for 3 days??! This latter aspect is interesting; it is exceedingly difficult to pull that off at this time of year, when continental bio phages and industry et al, cook in the sun to chemically generate ozone. Moreover, it is not cold at nights, either - just seasonally cool for some but mild for most .. Yes, there are gossamer chillier outliers for being decoupled stranded dales, but everyone has been recovering to Hollywood pool party afternoons. And it's been going on for weeks... whaaa Someone recently made the conjecture/metaphor to this being the antithesis to that 2015 Feb. I'm not sure that's a terrible comparison from a purer statistical scalar percentage. I wonder ... if the odds of getting a 2015 February are about the same as sustaining nearly 2 months of this Pandorian dream in spring into summer. Lol, imagine trying to submit that study for a Master's approval - It's really been, most of the recent way ... (when considering objective observation + all subjective intents and purposes )/ 2 = the best imaginable weather that can be produced by the Terran system... That said, I don't believe it will be as well supported, moving through and beyond this week - although the weather won't be horrible to some individuals. I mean...we have to keep in mind, some like sack-sticker sultriness. And no, this isn't just because we are approaching the apex of summer climo. This is more to do with the mode of the circulation showing some definitive changes as we near the 20th. I feel pretty confident we are relaxing the flow - at least that much, beyond D6. There is a coherent enough signal in the EPS/GEFs. As usual, it is the operation versions day dreaming as to what that will mean. The Euro wants to completely alter the hemisphere in such a way that removes the SE Canadian nadir that's been like The Man Who Came To Dinner. Really by D10 it is completely zonal through there, .. an aspect of summer flow structure not seen probably since 2012 (lol). Meanwhile, a NE Maritime/D. Straight positive characteristic NAO. By that time, it's modulated >90% of the entire contiguous U.S. area to > +18C at 850 mb! I don't think I've ever seen that modeled. The GFS, while relaxing, still nods to persistence. Though it finally stems off the gradient and velocities of the erstwhile, unusually strong polar jet, it still 'sags' the flow and offers enough suppression to keep the model's general cool bias alive. I don't know... but the Euro above seems excessive, where this model's patented cool bias in the extended sort of offset one another.

Very warm day incoming. Looks like 88 over down town traffic jams under high sun. Wouldn’t wanna be a roofer or an asphalt layer Smell of rising DP late afternoon sets up a milder night. Tuesday is unclear. If the sun penetrates more it’ll nick 90 ahead of dry cool front. It would be better if we get some rain out of that.

I've been pushing in the other forum threads a suspicion that we are getting a lot of this persistent pattern bias this summer as a feed-back from heat. "...Climate change is producing aridification in the Southwestern United States. Aridification is the process that leads to a hotter and drier climate. As part of that process, ..." The mechanics of heat feedback surrounds hot air deflecting right (thermal wind component then subjected to C forcing ). Such that if there is a basal flow tendency to ridging in the west, the two become constructive interference and the pattern then becomes harder to break down. The bold statement above fits that hypothesis.

anything that threatens 'totem symbolism,' where familiarity feels safe as a method, as being untrue. you know...I've often thought of the paradox science has to battle. It's simply not mentally tenable to too many, where all people tend to fear what they don't understand? Those big scary technology created models, ... the cinema of which requires Navier-Stokes tensor analysis ( lol ) telling us that our summers of lore and winters of yore may be more or less over, prooobably fits something trying to abolish people's comfort zones...

Which run did you have in mind - like,... which specific run cycle. The 00z and 06z look nothing like in the 15th to 25th. Secondly,no one should using a model as a "snapshot" - ... I mean obviously... Look, this isn't an engagement that has anything to do with Meteorology and everything to do with f'n around. You've been instructed, both kindly and condescendingly ( because folks are at a loss), and being an intelligent guy yet impenetrable to logic and propriety ... it is clear there is no interest in Meteorology. I am officially wasting my time typing and will now stop - LOL continue to have fun. Life is short

What about it -

I know why the summer's averaging like this... and why it is likely to persist - how long? mm.. not sure I'm willing to bet the end of the month roasts... It may take past the solar max ( ~ Aug 8 exit ) for this shit to stop. But does that matter? Like this week, we should be 85 to 91 in two intervals through D7 ... 9, with the interlude merely back to average. It's not big heat, no. It just boring anadyne weather of the dog day variety ... Tough time of the year for drama enthusiasts that need any dystopian model cinema to make their lives bearable - lol. But the truth is, it's not really that cold? it isn't... So far this month the 4 climate sites over at NWS Boston's on-line climate sheet for dummies are averaging +1 to +1.8 We had a < normal night ... numerically insufficient to move those 10 day weight means above much lower - and in fact ... given to where we are likely heading ... it's going the other direction over this next 7 days. And that is, despite the overall appeal of the pattern configuration. All these locations were 82 .. 84 yesterday - save Boston, which they get the Harbor fart nod no matter what's happening. Yet we are in a pattern that certainly looks cooler than normal with that perpetual nadir in the heights over SE Canada. When not incurring a trough here, there's not ridging either. See ... there's weird offsetting relativities going on... We are in a cooler than normal circulation construct that is having trouble producing actual below normal averages despite enabled winter obsessed gloating. Even considering last night... I guarantee, the 7-day mean will be negligible negative and probably ends up negligible decimals the other way. Bustin' our balls there a bit but truth is, it's not demonstrative - it's been more pattern symbolic. It's like we have vying relativity's... You know? It's normal to modestly warm, relative to a cool looking pattern. Yet where it is hot in the country, it's threatening to get wicked. It seems the music of CC plays in the background despite the cinema of the moments attempting to lie about what is going on.

Yet this...

Personally I am suspicious that CC's may be forcing circulation modal changes ... Those that want to say summers used to be this way routinely decades ago, don't really abase that idea - those summers got here through a different means that did not require 595 non-hydrostatic bulge and us being so calved while still having heights nearing 582 ... ( hint, we've been routinely 90/70 at that height in those distancing summers) It's a silent example -

In any case... here we are, rinse and repeat... The 12z GFS smashes in another trough and packs the heat back west again. If one is a heat enthusiast, pack it in - not happenin' James. Something about the planetary physical/total manifold is anchoring and unmovable.

that's a little dubious there - not you... the model. Ex, the high T's under that neutral area of Missouri, N Ark and Il start at 90-ish and end up at 100-ish spanning those days, and the GFS sells almost no 850 anomaly - seems a bit cool biased and weird for those surface temps. I realize climo for them is warmer but I don't believe it is 90-100 "normally" spanning 5 days like that, either. something seems off in the GFS or this product.

This^ has occurred to me often in recent days. … But more specifically wondering how a 1930s pattern would fair over top this CC footprint …superimposing constructively

The huge heat event idea for the Plains lapsing throughout the MS Valley and western Lakes and all that is beyond D7 still ( btw - ) not that anyone asked, but just sayn' Which makes it unlikely to even occur, in deference to understanding and the blah blah inherent model limitations that are blah blah blah. In the meantime, the the 00z Euro has two consecutive runs that keep the 850 mb, +15 isotherm near or above the ORD-BUF-BOS arc, from D3 thru 10. Whether we get the pattern to engineer some historic dome of heat agog, that is a separate matter to me. 'Should be considered mutually exclusive to a leading possible 5 .. 6 day stint where/when clouds and RH notwithstanding, the highs may make 87 to 90 daily, anyway (SNE .. our NNE brothers and sisters modulate for latitude) The 00z GFS does obtrude a 30 hour interlude of +8 ... +11 C 850s with a more aggressive frontal cleansing late Wed... not completely sold on that as the ens mean of both it and the Euro (eps) are less so. Maybe... NNE will get clipped by a transient correction, but both guidance types have a hybrid heat conveyor coming in by late Friday, N-S As far as DP ... not sure that looks huge. I'd lean at negative relative to this sort of summer miasma, just based upon a mean of two primary factors: ( continental seasonal trend + the circulation mode that morphs into that look )/ 2 = tendencies to have less theta-sourcing. Kind of like a dog days of August, 1 month early, with a twist of CC hiding in the 'decimal forcing'

Lol... months. right - A Cat 3 storm, you'd be talkin' swath denudation of Long Island. 'Specially if it's moving N apace such as a 1938, which was caught in the deep steering field between a quasi closed weakness ( reanalysis ) SW and an evolving maritime block. They'd be picking bedroom linen and personal detritus from southern L.I. short communities, out of the stripped tree limbs at the head of Narragansett Bay. The bank statements found in the fields of CT would be mapped back to slabs.

ya never know

mm..not to be a dh but that's no real revelation. The amount of warming so far fits inside of ~1.5 Deg C since 1900. Granted that does not distribute equally, everywhere, with some areas preferentially heating more so than others, and even other areas offsetting due to circulation modes changing...whatever. Point being, ~1.5 C (2.4 F) doesn't seem intuitively like that is vast enough to preclude 50s from ever happening during summer nights. Since the year 2000, we have been warmer than normal over SE Canada and the NE U.S./lower Maritime like everywhere else, but I have personally noticed that some 2/3rds of the total months since 2000 ( ~ 160 of them ) came in with a modest cool node over or near enough by, relative the rest of the global magnitude. Something peculiar about the continent and physical geography, and the way it fits into the planetary engine causes the circulation modes to favor those regions for that. Not always... a fair number of months 80 to 100 were quite warm too. I'm not sure it requires a lot of calculation to see the shape of the argument there.