Typhoon Tip

Yeah the efforts to suppress Covid at civility scales ...world over, to varying degrees of success or not unfortunately means background immunity is uniquely set up for waves of 'normal' pathogens. This was predicted by super computing 2 years ago. I have nasty cold going on. Tested for C three times. Negative. Thing is, I did catch a hold of omicron back last April - it wasn't as bad this piece of shit I'm dealing with now. jesua

just going to say, wow - it's dazzling outside right now. Birds are active, too. Squirrels chasing each other through the canopies because ...well, they're after 'squirrel' Shouldn't they be hibernating by now.

We really only had two at that. There's going to be interpretation but we'd done better in less 'favorable' looking scaffolding. You know ...you get into that rare scenario where it seems to find a way to snow. Basically...you need a little fractal love, too. Both the events in that period were handled as occurrence. It just didn't parlay in favor of regional hopes and dreams to put it nicely.

The MJO, for the first time in recent months, is at least coughing momentum through lower amplitude phase 8-1-2. I Wonder if this weird linear jet between Japan and California is signaling constructive interference... just enough to allow that to happen. hmm Thing is... zonal flow types tend to precede the genesis of ridging - that's FAST 101 ( course in Forecast Analytics and Statistical Techniques for the daily double !) Anyway, "tend" is a bit shy of determinism. Still it creates a kind of competition for the Pacific. That zonal jet argues that an eventual east Pacific ridge begins to manifest ..eventually. La Nina on the other hand, doesn't correlate very well with either this modeled torpedo across the Basin ( it's anomalous looking even for "NINO" frankly - ), or any subsequent NE Pacific ridging. ( as an aside, the Nina footprint has been pretty coherent this autumn into early winter. Contrasting, this modeled happenstance ( which hasn't actually happened just yet...) would argue for a decoupled Nina - or an attempt in the mid latitudes to do so. Here we are...nearing mid winter, and yet another ENSO is detaching ... ) NCEP has a 70+% chance for neutralization of the ENSO by Feb-April... I mean it's possible this is the beginning of that taking place? I'm sort of simultaneously speculating two aspects, here: The NE Pacific as we get into January emerging -EPO and/or cyclic +PNA underneath, or both. The other is whether this 'apparent' decoupling Nina state is the very beginning harbinger of its demise. I think it is somewhat important to consider, because the last 10 years worth of ENSOs have been increasingly unstable/less coherent in the hemisphere, overall. Sort of implies a fragility there... If NCEP wants to pull the rug out from under the index anyway, it thus seems like an atmospheric abandon could happen relatively fast. The preceding was probably more for the seasonal thread.. As to next weeks shenanigans... You know, about 20 years ago... even 10 years ago, a straight linear delivered series of troughs off the Pacific were not always lending to model performance over the eastern continent. This was notoriously error prone. There have been advances ( it is assumed - I haven't kept a journal of release notes or anything) in the data assimilation techniques. I looking over the Pacific ... the mechanics that end up in that crumbling morass of vaguely organized wave out around D7-9 is still out west of the date line, embedded in that modeled anomalous jet. I don't think even in modern times that lends very well to continuity... There could be shadowing by parsing problems..

At this range one could question where the GFS gets anything on them charts. Heh

At this point ...I'd be willing to wait until it's yesterday. "Signal for a moderate to major flat wave snow event becoming much more coherent for two days ago..."

that's only 170+ hours out... Ha, 'only' - imagine saying that in 1995. But that's a hybrid between a NJ model low with a Miller A... Mostly the former though. The boundary kinks over the SE and and then it goes through the Norwegian sequencing along a perfect track to scalp Kevin while the rest of due really well with a ton of frontogenic sig. ...I can tell all that without looking.

I shoulda started a thread last Monday ...That woulda blown some minds. - earned me the ESPN hot dog eating classic worth of buns, but it woulda been cool

18 hours of moderate snow along rt 2 That much sleet to the pike/mixing in.. with ice south. This is the most promising run re the 5th-7th yet. Funny...this is the event I first mentioned 5 days ago but we've been tossing back and forth between in and something closer to the 8th - and likely will do that some more. It's possible the whole period is just magnified too -

I didn't think the EPS looked that great anyway when looping the polar stereographic projection over at Pivotal/500 mb anomaly. It looks like a -PNA transmitting a Chinook stretch across the continent with just a vague ridge mound ... more associated to mountain torque. At least ending on day 10. If that's better than the previous runs, wow. I guess they were really bad then lol There may be events in that mess that are just not powerful enough to footprint the mean - kinda what Jan 5-9th would be. But hey, someone was mentioning how there doesn't seem to be any 4-8" events any more. Might have to do some actual forecasting and not just rely upon the loud signaled bombs that show up two weeks ahead.

Another way that can be defined is just in knowing the EPO climatology. The actually d(index) may be most important, too. Early -EPO's subtend a troughs into the Rockies ..that's just conservation of mass. Heights go up over Alaska, they have to come down to balance and the total wave length requires the trough west initially. But as the EPO ages and starts to decay, it tends to progress SE and temporarily ...if not longer, this manifest in a +PNAP. Last week was peculiar in that there was this initial behavior but the subsequent +PNAP was not substantially exerting. It's really like the storm loaded into the flow during the early -EPO... and it's evolution overall interfered with the normal gestation.. It just didn't give the PNAP a chance. The other aspect that's hard for me to ignore is that the bomb sort of obeyed a La Nina memo in not being necessarily EC destined.

ICON's a nasty ice storm for the Jan 5-7th signal... It was a more impressive 00z solution than the other guidance. I'm still not completely sold on this models usefulness one way or the other, but I see it listed out on the web and some times mentioned in AFDs in NWS and so forth. It must get some street cred? who knows. But, the signal is still real folks. It's not that far away anymore, either. I'd like the see the GEFs come around. The EPS has some vague look at a coastal. We're not in threat mode. This is still signal eval. I don't think we're going be sending 582 heights up to NJ this whole month though, so long as the numerical PNA index sustains, albeit modestly, a positive SD. This in fact appears more related to hemispheric 'elasticity' in the rather abrupt/recent disappearance of the NAO blocking over the western limb. It is in fact a strong positive mode... but is presently ( I believe) over-compensated and will settle back. Probably when/as this thing comes along next week is resonant timing.

My advice ( seein' as everyone asked - ) ...is not to look at the 850 mb in that range. That +PP up there is going to correct the BL quite sharply inverted, particularly if that look trends 200 or so mile S ... and it's not likely to be depicted properly at this range - ... that's already a red flag icer in my mind given those main synoptic players. It could also be a 1/3 to mid way thru the event tuck jet scenario, ... lots of weird possibilities with that much weight folding around the elevations up there.

It only took you 5 years to figure that out ? haha

Very fortunate for California .... They're likely to get a couple decade foot of snow in the Sierra, with substantive rain fall below in several pulses over the next week. It won't be enough to correct the "Millennial drought" - I mean I'm calling it that. The hydrology out there must be an interesting science. About 10 years ago there was a better wet season, and a lot of reservoirs recovered quite a bit... it shorter order. But that needs to happen in more than once per decade, or does the sustainable habitability for 40 million population become an issue, or remain viable by mid century. Wondering thought ...

Or maybe they need 'relationship' counseling -

this is kinda of cool looking... having the Pacific jet align from Tokyo to San Francisco with pretty much 0 deviation from a straight line. heh http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/north-pac/500_vort_ht/gfs_north-pac_156_500_vort_ht.gif

Ha...easy - cuz then what happens finds a way to be worse than that 'worse' you planned for. lol

Are they even favored in this QBO run up ? I can't seem to ever remember the - vs + relationship there... possibly owing to how significant they are to me. haha. Seriously though - I guess I'll look at it.

yeah...agreed. I mentioned those dates a couple of times over the last few days myself. there's still a signal there, too, but it's weak. That's a good way to put that, "chance for anything". The trouble is, you mention and then people can't help themselves but to start checking on the status of their allotment of modeling cinema that was actually "scheduled" for the time frame in question. Haha. Fwiw - the discrete anal analysis of the 5th - 9th/10th ...there are actually possibly two events in there. The first is what I have/had been suggesting, in that we could correct toward +PP over SE Canada and we are seeing that emerging now in the last couple of cycles of the operational GFS. The Lakes cutter wave for the 5th has a leading dammed signature, out of a 1040 mb high trying to lobe around the elevations and the upshot is that it is under 200 hours out in time. Later on...there still some vestiges of a coastal trying to hang on... As you say, the Pacific handling in a longitudinal flow like this is probably right at the tilt point of model performance. There a examples in the Kocin/Ucellini books of these waves that came along and broke nearing the EC whilst there was very limited aft side ridging in the west. It's just the rarer format. So you know there's some shit out there.

Just no one asked me but I'm not sure any SSW would really be very coherently noticeable above an AO index that has been convincingly behaving in the wrong correlation space already - and already negative. If the AO persists in doing what it has been, any SSW's eventual time-lagged influence on the domain would be absorbed in the cloth. I mean ...I said 'wrong space' there, but the correlation coefficients between it, and the rest of the planet, has the AO operating in the lesser correlation likeliness. It's not really the point I was making though. I have been watching these SSW and their apparent effectiveness in modulating the AOs since I first brought this to the attention of the forums back in 2005 ( jesus christ...), and I was admittedly more hot to trot about them back whence, than I am now, for that journey. There have been those that have come and gone ...no influence on temperature anomalies over N/A.. Then there were those that came and 20 days later, there was... So flip a coin. I have come to a fairly confident conclusion that they are the polar version of the MJO in terms of how/what they can do to the system. They modulate, don't drive - ...so I'm wondering in my point yet again. Seems I do that a lot. Ha. Well, maybe not wondering too much, because those years of being non-parse-able within destructive interference hemisphere ( 'cloth') is that coin flip. Indirectly related aspect.. We've had this conversation before ... telecons have been disrupted over the last 10 years. CC or random patterns emerging out of complex systems that lie ... whatever fits our narrative(s) being the cause. I don't know if that is related? Could be. But below was not just oddly spaced below the 0 SD line, but represents a truly massive integral .... And doesn't just go against the correlation. It does so with mocking audacity. Especially considering the robustly well established, coupled La Nina. SSWs in the data, in the past, don't cause what we see above - not to that extent. Also, the spread out there is not ignored and relates to my feelings on January.

I know. But as far as the pattern and the general reader: it did change. It changed for the better, too. Clad and true. It didn't produce. Tough shit on you. That's life. That is the breaks. Pattern change does not automatically guarantee jack shit. Let's adult this for a minute. This engagement is with the public... pointing out the obvious. Engagement in the court of public opinion is purely "an objectively, fair, and cutting edge intelligent" adjudication. Once one survives that comPLETELY non-persecuting pat on the back by the Lord Of The Flies... there is then the reality that we got a historic bomb out of it, one that same judging consortium is grumps acknowledgement. haha. Sometimes this feels like we're trying to appeal to a psyche ward. Just saying ... in general. Tough shit. I don't know...I consider the whole thing an incredible success actually.

I'm glad you put that in quotes for that particular time frame, because we are no where near threat on that. Heh. Maybe.. That was really more about the earliest a signal that has a chance to take on a wintry profile. Some of the operational GFS runs have been outright doing that. And there's a fair amount of individual GEF member representation, too. That's about all... The entire op ed was mostly about idiosyncrasies with the warm up, then followed by a some sort of paradigm shift. As rocking chair pipe smoke folklore, 'first it gets warm. Then it gets cold: boom' There's some sort of a truth buried in there. Kinda like, 'red sky at morning, sailors take warning...' is a bit of 'lore that bears some logic - they are not all wholly bears. But for this context, if it's warmer than normal, and the pattern shifts cold, there's liable to be a correction event somewhere in there or near by in time and space.

Don't give up on the 5th-8th as a winter re-entry event. That appears a "pattern inflection" period. Not a bad time to go looking. Longer read, Until then, we hiatus ... how much/to what extent could be interesting in itself - of course... not likely to catch interest in this particular internet depot ( lol). It is also iffy how extreme because the ambient polar boundary is oscillating NW-SE-NW etc not too far away. Cyclic waves running along it from roughly the MV to our region or the Lakes. These will likely interfere some amount, some way. It does appear there are two main warm pulses... one between D3 and 4/5, the next some 3 days later .. Then, it's over? The end time of this demonstrative positive departure interval has been interestingly quite stable both intra-guidance but also crossing. Right around the 5th ..give or take. After about that range, the overall model complexion illustrates relaxed flow +PNAP enveloping the continent. That would be an interesting mode. The last 10 winters pretty much all have featured mid winter plagues of too many isohypses to count and concomitant baseline g-wind velocities so strong that we've been setting air-land relative commercial air speed records for intercontinental oceanic flights, like ...everywhere. The thing with 'baggy' patterns that sort of look +PNA like: I've seen this in the past, ...and ancient past ( god am I getting old...). The models will create a kind of vague semblances of either + or -PNA's in an overall baggy flow, ...but then, as the time gets nearer, gradually more gradient emerges, and the reasserting pattern can take on more coherency. This could be some of that... unknown. The CPC numerical PNA is statically positive along or just shy of +1SD so...mm. Thing is, any western trough could certainly be corrected if not booted east for that. There is an overall correction vector to raise heights along 100-130 W more than we're seeing in deterministic solutions, so long as those EOF/derivatives point that way. La Nina appears to be weakening in the OLR distribution products since the last update... which was largely based upon November through mid December ( at most). I'm not sure how that would happen without the an accompanying +SOI weakening... But, seeing as NCEP's put up a 70+% odds of establishing a neutral Basin by just a month from now, we may indeed be seeing that commencing. I mention this for two reasons: one ... there are longer range tendencies for MJO to actually penetrate E of the W. Pacific La Nina fire wall ...instead of getting to phase 7 and then summarily dying on the interface with 8. I don't believe the MJO drives patterns and never have. It's a modulator... But, that modulation only can happen if the surrounding hemisphere is in constructive interference. It thus seems intriguing ( a little) that La Nina may be weakening ( if that's true.), and then modeled MJO coherency takes place. two ... the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific has been very well coupled this particularly recent three month period. It is what it is. So long as that has been the case/trend, there may be some lock-step decay of the La Nina and the emergence of favorable winter enthusiastic January/latter. I seldom venture into seasonal outlook territory, but I just keep sensing this appeal like the planetary system is competing with the La Nina ... it's like trailing by a touchdown and a field goal but your team just scored and the other side just threw an interception. You have momentum on your side?

You know what that reminds me of, that first sentence fragment there ? It's like when you've activated the vocal detection for chat/txting too quickly on the heels of finishing a conversation you're having with some other vector. That blurb about "..Valley ...spatial temporal..." jazz sounds like a small piece of a larger discussion happening, like it were over the shoulder, then turning the face toward mic. Then didn't realize that got picked up. I've done that... I've sent texts and got googly eyes back, and I look at it and I'm wondering where it came from, and then I remember. But, that's a fine story - don't know if it applies to NWS back office shenanigans.