Typhoon Tip

The key difference there is noticed the western ridges come inland now it makes a big difference in the spatial forcing. So it’s moving south underneath the western end of that sub polar vortex and it’s enticing it to come south. that’s about to set up a subsume phase. It reminds me of some of those 1970s winters.

That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run. Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years. Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange.

Mm talking about stuff that’s already happened though… Looking back in lore, the biggest events were in the models for like 15 days or something prior to the actual event verifying. At minimum a week. This signal got really bright about three days ago and it’s actually been there in vestige probably prior to that for several days as well right out to the very edge of the ensemble means when it was back when. If this becomes a blockbuster event do we add this to the list of those that showed up really early in the guidance I’m not talking about people setting up their expectations. I’m talking about how to use this as a prognostic tool

I wonder when ‘ big events show up really early in the guidance ‘ should apply

Lol but actually … if it snows prodigiously enough east of ~ HFD-ASH line the original assessment would have been off altho … I was pointing out that an eastward adjustment would not be altogether unexpected. Also … moderate vs minor vs major. Heh. Subjective. To me 10 inches is moderate and I don’t think we’re getting 10 inches because if we do it’s gonna be 8::3 1QPF hahaha would be almost 2 inches lol. actually … Ha. We could be trending towards CCB strike over the eastern part of the AFD In which case… we bring the 850 therm down to the surface and we end up with an iso thermal -1 Celsius …even get blowing snow off the eaves as a wtf’er event

For winter storm enthusiast you just need to get that thing under Long Island as opposed to curling up thru Pennsylvania a New York state I mean we’re in signal recognition mode but in so far as what the model run looks like there with that Canadian…. The shortest avenue to doing that would be having the western ridge push into into the High Plains as that mass of mechanics gets ejected east. The other way might be to exert more negative NAO in which case we start the Minnesota squeeze antics again.

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet. i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area. I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region … Cross that bridge lol. No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

Ha … No I’m battling with my phone’s unrelenting attempt to turn whatever I write into utter twaddle that’s unintelligible ..,while sitting in a droning code meeting that I struggle to find so much as a modicum of passion for

So long as the 700 mb… and probably 850 as well, stay below Worcester to Logan axis this scenario has probably got about the best shot at a marginality surprise/blue snow event as can be set up around here. classic December of lore… Really. Now whether that happens or not comes down to I don’t know micro scale permutations that can’t really be predicted or seen. probably not a total analog? but I do agree that the first of the duel events in 1996 reminds me of this. I remember when that thing flipped over to aggregates I was between Acton and UML making the commute back up to school when that happening and I never saw the roads deteriorate so fast. Shows when you’re raining at sultry mid 30s how cold surfaces are. Right as the rain flipped to cotten balls … everything was white and there were slush ruts on the roadway sfc very quickly

Yeah… In the end the moral to this fable could turn out to be ‘don’t mess with marginality in a negative NAO’

That endgame look actually materialized in the recent GFS solutions too …Just pointing that out to the general audience. I mentioned it late last night that 0ZGFS was stalling the low at moderate depth east of Cape Ann and the CCB was into NE MA, southeast New Hampshire and coastal Maine during the overnight

There’s no accounting for stretched x-coordinate/fast hemisphere in the extended model behavior. I mean it’s something they tend to correct away from out in time, but then have to add back. That’s why I was coveting optimism actually when I saw that huge warm bulge in south eastern Canada in recent Euros - first thing I thought of is that warm ball will likely end up above 600mbs as an NAO block… Now I don’t know if that’s actually going to happen? But it more than merely seems that everything ends up correcting some 1500 km east in the atmospheric logistics moving D 11+ to D 4..5

In my old days at eastern I’d have threaded this a heart beat by now but … with this more moderate ordeal in the foreground -

Perfectly phrased ^

Nice reference there … Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal. Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. Some if these individual GEF members are quite extraordinary.

It actually trended pretty significantly westbbetween 84 and 96 hours… Seems to stall there and it really pummels northeastern mass coastal New Hampshire and coastal Maine pretty good, comma head

It actually flips a lot of us over to a period of moderate snow in the latter half of the storm as the CCB lingers in the area coming in there

Yeah it’s sarcasm

About the same as previous. It’s not interested in deviating from a track just S if LI. Looks like a 4-6” of wet snow in the deep interior as a low risk correction.

There’s reasons to believe it’s more right. I’ve outlined those … it seems people sans anything other than the worst possible model cinema. Lol

Despite all the smaller incremental trends … one run wipes it all out. It’s an odd circumstance to have big cold vortex parked over the lower Maritime, with -NAO block over Baffin Island and have the Great Lakes control everything. Interesting. Guess no one trusts the GFS huh

I know who it is but I’m not gonna fix what this phone does on the couch

Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension. Who knows. I tell you tho, the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising

Fair enough but try to make it funny then lol