Typhoon Tip

Under present circumstances? It certainly is hard to describe the sweetness of that eye candy as an alternative to wet stench we’ve been forced to eat of the other guidance types. it may be of limited solace that this particular model run is really only day 5 to 7 with this (so it’s really on the front side of the 13.14.15 but it is still actually the same disturbance) and the reason why it’s limited solace is because this model has basically very limited predictive skill beyond D4s from what I’ve seen in the past. I don’t know if that’s changed in recent years? I know it’s gone thru some upgrades recently. I apologize if that’s case and it’s improved. I seldom use thus tool at time frames greater than day 4 as trust hasn’t been tested. Lol there’s too many forecast methods available as it is…. Your sentiment about watching for the Euro is a good, particularly because it was midway between this and the GFS ND/SD abomination - as of last night - tho trended the wrong way. That said… The threads purpose was still just for a risk assessment… The risk however still there

Unfortunately those as much as we laugh and lord of the flies this particular model it is unfortunately for the pessimists within the realm of plausibility‘s.

Not entirely certain what the pages contain since yesterday but in deference to the patterning evolution over the last 24 hours, in the runs, I cannot in objective fairness disagree with that sentiment as of this morning’s coffee. Little furthering on that … the Pacific relay over western N/A has been vacillating - we’ve been ruminating the issues with that ad nauseam But it is unfortunately still the biggest hurdle. A lot has been said over the last three weeks by a lot of different people - myself included. I have voiced sentiments on either side of pessimism versus optimism. I ultimately sided with optimism (in the context of what optimism means for this particular social media depot ) because there is a historical precedents for seasonal lapsing over the last decade. Blocking during transition seasons, Regardless of leading indicators…, loading cold transports etc. etc. Additionally, La Nina’s have a historical suggestion for early performance – helped along by the fact that we’ve had a very well coupled Nina basal state Pacific this autumn …might lend support for that as well The combination of those two factors made the negative EPO that was modeled two weeks ago (which by the way ended up arriving in passing more modest), as well as the impending negative NAO, a reasonable fits. The fact of the matter is… that’s all still the case and they still are. That all said I agree with Brian wholeheartedly that the NAO has a long history of breaking hearts when relying on long range excitement. I can dig back and find the post where I spoke about this with in no uncertain terms and in vivid detail why and how the NAO did not mean XYZ necessarily. I spoke at length about both the fail/red herring NAO handling m, and also tried to explain why the D(NAO) is more important than the NAO scaler mode. Old lessons were false in the 1990s and they’re still not dying, perhaps. Be that as it may we did except that notion by suggesting that the NAO would relax after the initial onset and there’s discussion in that area… All of which seems perhaps moot at this point if the models fail this vastly with structural handling in the first place. Yesterday and still today the GEFs -based PNA numerical values were/are rising some 2 standard deviations in the 7-10 day delta. I don’t believe the Pacific is being handled with very much better vision when the oper version cannot seem to ever reflect its own modes.

Saying since the upgrade implies the upgrade did something. Maybe … maybe not. Fwiw I am more more inclined to suspect the pattern is just troublesome in general to its particular ‘machinery’.

Quick statement wrt to the model contention (EPS vs the GEFs...). The GFS lineage does not lend to its being a better performing tool during retrograde/slowing patterns. Even in recent years... have personally noted that it still routinely is sped up over all other guidance by mid range, and what starts out as a small deviation from consensus, and almost unseen ... aggregates out in time. I've also noted that it's integrated colder heights are also deeper by small margins that grow in time ... By D10, it is almost always colder on the polar side of the ambient jet - for better or worse - comparing to its competing guidance sources. I realize the Euro has come under question, but ..the proof is in the here and now. One model has been more stable than the other, and the other's instability fits the above problems that I strongly argue it still has - however subtle those may be in a point to point analysis. Integration of tiny errors over 300 hours, matters... It's bias is (likely...) at odds with the nature of the hemisphere during this next two weeks, and these wild very large scale mass field continuity performance issues that are empirically observable in the GFS/GEFs is exposing what I personally have always known. The GFS does better and is competitive if not better than the other guidance now, in open wave velocity soaked pattern types. Take this information for what one will... I am not deviating from this thread's purpose just yet.

Well in any event… It’s too far out in time to make this kind of detailed comparison really. It’s basically just what I said earlier in the day. 13.14.15 the biggest sensitivity in all this is the handling off the Pacific; it’s just not in the Gfs‘s purview to actually do that… Apparently

Mm hm. Which may be a step towards Euro ? Possible

…it’s completely different across all the western US with the scale degree ridging … the timing of short waves coming out the Pacific even the details of the flow they’re all different this model has very very poor continuity …actually has zero continuity - it’s pretty much impossible to make out or identify the same features as the previous run relative to the time interval that’s the best way to describe this it just cannot see what’s going on coming off the Pacific Ocean after D6+ with much clarity. I would say that it’s worse than relative to even model error climate

One thing it’s gonna be less aggressive in winding up the low and taking it west of Chicago on this run I mean I may have a low out there but the morphology aloft and support for deep low transit west of the Great Lakes is definitely reduced on this 18 Z

GFS is arriving less progressive in the late mid and early extended range across the conus with all major features… proximately 500 nautical miles maybe or a little more. Defined difference also is the trough at 168 hours going through the south west is obscenely powerful. Sure how this will affect the evolution when all this gets east but it is what it is as it’s rolling out

For the record… I don’t mean to actually give the GFS shit ha ha. Just sayn. not speaking for everybody else Like I said it gave me pause because so much of the forecast system is doing what it’s doing. You know re the NAO …it’s almost like if you took an NAO appliqué to 30 more years of climate change you might get one that looks that way. It keeps occurring to me to be honest in kind a coveted little muse. I just read WPC is extended forecast discussion and they’re talking about the poor continuity and the bad predictability everywhere so seeing this massive continuity swinging around like this I really don’t take any of these runs very seriously including the entire ensemble system of the GFS or the EPS for that matter. I’m just trying to rely upon the numerical Teleconnectors and they still flag the 13 14 15 8–10 days might also be a clue too. Lol

I was just looking at that ha ha. It looks like it takes the entire hemisphere of atmosphere and just bodily shifts Southeast 1000 miles like everywhere unilaterally and dimensionally

I wish they’d bring back the model diagnostic division. ever strike anyone as interesting coincidence that they took that down around when they started clicking out new versions of the GFS like Pez candy lol

I’m kicking myself because I had a statement in that thread I started that my sense was that that would get damped out, 9.10. No ballz no glory. But I took it down because I thought it was just getting too confusing to logistically handle all that shit and also I wasn’t sure if it was just going to get rattled around south of Nova Scotia and affect the evolution of the latter events and so forth. The whole everything now is like an etch and sketch erasing lol

It has been a very coupled fall into the early cold season so far…

That’s exactly what I was thinking… and then zonal tends to precede ridging. We’d be heading for a 2015 Christmas as one possibility in extrapolating that extended GFS. Man I thought for sure this was just a one GFS sort of aberrant run… likely more meaningless against the weight of everything else. But then I looked at the weight of everything else. Jesus Christ. Some 70% of GEFs ballast agrees on cutting 13.14.15 as a deep low, -NAO or not. Out of nowhere, it’s planetary scaled continuity break - but it doesn’t fit the NAO hemisphere climatology I guess it could happen… I mean if we think about it the models can’t produce solutions that are physically impossible unless they’re cartoons. From what I’m seeing in the series though is that the Pacific is the problem. In fact for the last several days it has been meandering east and west with the planetary wave spacing …sometimes we get like yesterday and there’s more western North American presentation and the models immediately ignite massive storm system because of the incredible potential this pattern has downstream or eastern North America. This run en masse went so far the other direction it should strain believability. But it’s not like one or two members and the operational run here you’re talking about the entire GFS machinery. So much it’s sending a nonlinear wave function that’s encouraging the NAO to back load southwest towards the great lakes and we end up actually borderline turning this into an Indian Summer… Wah wah waah I mean the old mantra about continuity break 101 means you don’t really believe it and all that jazz is true but when the entire forecast system bullies that it all at once - whole scale - its enough to give one pause. I guess wait on the EPS and we’ll see if the euro and all that

So we’ve got the EPS absolutely gorgeous and the other extreme we’ve got the GFS, absolutely atrocious makin progress

The following statements for comic relief so don’t take it as trolling but I’m looking at the Gfs’ December 18 depiction of 585 Heights over Boston and I’m laughing at the prospect of any kind of snow haha. Jesus h Christ not to mention a “favorable pattern”. Run for your lives

The complete reversion back to what it was doing two days ago… It seems to be fighting the NAO exertion like it almost just loses it from time to time no times. I just think it’s not handling it well. None of the models are practically well probably

I wonder if we can get some mood stuff just like in the air on Monday. that is a really long fetch coming off big polar high. we’re gonna have a nice Northeast flow so it’ll probably be too warm obviously over east zones down toward the Cape and southeastern mass …but inland up the Worcester hills if we can get some kind of stuff in the air

The low here was 20. Currently it is 45 that’s a pretty impressive recovery for this time of year spanning just 2 1/2 hours

they don’t appear to be. The constant unrelenting back-and-forth replaying the same content does not appear adult and lucid about this material, not to any objective observer.

I don’t know… I think you folks need to focus on 13.14.15 We have to adult and except. We have to except that’s all that there really is out there - right now - that’s realistically providing the best odds. I dunno, maybe you don’t believe it. Or maybe you don’t understand it. But those are the best dates right there. All the odds on the table and scaling your best odds are 13.14.15 and everything else is just some kind of rocking back-and-forth and sniffing armpit antics … darting bloodshot eyes too and fro. Lol.

Yeeeah 17.18.19 is legit enough for early place holder awareness… Chuck has a thread started I believe. However if we get a significant event out of 13 1415 we’re probably going to cost some for anything that tries to come by just two days later part of the problem is that we have a progression or velocity bias in the flow unfortunately… Seems to be a recurring theme now spending many years frankly. Even in this strong blocking episode the models are trying to orchestrate a fast tendency. And it may not even be real - it’s hard to tell But wave spacing and atmospheric recovery/physics are real contention concerns. A significant event passing through the region between 14 and 15th tends to be too close for the 17th. it can happen… We did something like that 1996. But there’s a reason why we can count on one hand in 30 years how many times that happens

The thread I started is under the auspices of ‘risk assessment’ for 13.14.15 Not so much about the totality of the hemisphere that it is embedded within if that’s what you guys are talking about? I feel 13.14.15’s signal is strong enough that it deserves selection out of the daily din … I haven’t seen anything overnight to dissuade me from that sense, either. In fact if you look at the EPS and GEFs spread so you can see there is a tendency for a miller b now - very primitive attempt at coalescing. Yesterday the numerical PNA was showing an elevating index during that time frame while the NAO is relaxing. I haven’t seen the values from last nights computation just yet. But we are early in the signal so it may wander in and out or coherency for a little while - should be expected.