Typhoon Tip

Give it time ... If the 850 mb thermal layout is indeed +24 C on average along the BUF-BOS axis ... over top a BL west wind, while predominately max solar insolation is being realized, that's a rare convergence of metrics. Usually one of those screws up and we end up 89. There's nothing wrong with 100 .. 101, and in fact, from this range, user experienced would tell you that 2-meter T seldom model that large - that's impressive for a D11/12 Also, we are no where close to higher confidence for heat strike here. This is still just recognizing the super synoptic markers, which we appear to have. So we'll see the model cinema as we go, and see how that movie's plot materializes over time. We've seen these normalize ... in fact, the majority of them do, because we just don't get 95+ big heat as frequently as it is modeled at D9-13's. Something about this season smacks of it though. Maybe it's the no rush to rain priming soar potential, with those ongoing attempts at GB flow nadirs.... a leitmotif that flirts with trouble as we head to the end of June through early August.

Tell me about it ...jesus christ. just did a 30 mi cycle in that pall. It's hard to sustain 20 mph when you're haulin' in chalk dust. f man what a hack fest

probably laid eggs there - that's what it looks like. my neighbors down the way live next to a brook that runs under the road... and they had one of those big snappers in their garden diggin' away like an episode of Animal Planet.

Bump for relevancy to the 12z operational GFS... The actual deterministic value is low - it has to be for D9-13 ( as it matters to us...), but the entire evolution from D6+ is a very good illustration for this post shared with Kevin, yesterday.

Well ...actually, ..it's a short google effort to find accredited bio-informatic that points out we are already in a mass extinction event. The most likely causal candidate in fact being, climate changing too fast for adaptation rates - ...already happening. That said, rate of species loss could also increase ... it's not a linear metric, either. Duh. I mean, if a comet smacks the planet and wipes out 80% of everything inside of a week, that would be an example of a greatly accelerated extinction event, huh. That is obvious arithmetic, I know, but the sad fact of the matter is, ...there is sooo much disconnect between humanity's various exploits, needed to run the industrial engine, vs consequences of profligate usage of nature. It isn't always abundantly clear that people really get it. As an aside, ...you know, it honestly isn't really the fault of our fathers... It was circumstantially unknowable - but that doesn't stop the damage, just because the forefather's of oil-fueled innovation didn't know any better. So, generations later, the responsibility and culpability was never part of the journey, thus, those simple dot-connections have to be spelled out. Those that now "use" uncertainty to dial up the rev rate of the engine, don't connect to a morality. Maybe there is large background population of sociopaths amongst us all, who have no compunctions in manipulating for gain. Or, the the idea of institutional multi-generational ways and means that provide the very spirit of existence, as being the reason for detonating an entire planet - it's just too big to wrap their heads around... So, of course it can't be true, then. Either way, it seems they number too vastly to stop - it's really like we are executing the step 2 of the Fermian explanation. sorry - not bloviating at you per se.

Our DPs are modestly warmer, with mid 50s at NWS ASOS sites with the typical 7 point bump out among the bucolic settings being baked by June lasing ... LI's are marginal through late afternoon. Can see summit towers W-N of here as they line up over ridge lines. They look crispy ... might be a spot over-achiever/shower here and there.

Southwest heat ejection phenomenon doesn't operate in perpetuity. It's a wave event. The flow flips +PNAP --> -PNAP, ...effectively dislodging SW air ... which then if unperturbed by intervening aspect, it has a chance to get loaded into the eastern ridge. Once that initial ejection sequence is complete, that's it. It's a wave event - not like leaving the heat faucet on and walking away. lol I suppose in some imaginative sense of it... it is plausible to have that all take place above, and then the flow pulsates at super-synoptic scales, such that the anomaly merely waxes and wanes from AN to MAN (above normal to much above normal), more cyclically. But I've never seen that. I've seen persistent tendencies to reflex the SE heights back higher, making it easy to heat up..sure. AN summers in general. But not in such way as to alternate between perfectly timed SW ejection scenarios into 104 at Logan destinies, in a dependable framework ( most lucid readers should be laughing at this point..). The problem is, ...there are too many intervening things that happens to interfere with the perfect relay of super heat along the way. That's probably why we don't see the "Hot Saturday" scenario that often. That all said... yeah, we're observing strange heat events with increasing frequency, globally, ...most likely as a part of CC - most attribution studies leave really no room for doubt. These events bring factors together, giving "rise" ( haha) to synergistic results that models couldn't see. Like 117 F where it never has happened type oddities. I'm not saying we can't get into an ensemble line wobble between 94 and 107 ... I'm only here to say that we're experimenting with time, and how long it takes for one of those freak heater to hit home ...as a single wave event, and trying to be proactive and identifying ways to get that done.

Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be... Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions. The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof. Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast. That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole. But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge. The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact. The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans. The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal.

Yeah... it's called the American Weather Forums Twilight Zone addition

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

For some reason I'm having trouble getting font to bold ... but, "We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow" I could not agree more vehemently. We're playing with fire. It's a matter of time. Personally? I'm certain. I keep seeing us miss, just oh so close... Like a big right hand hitter lifting fly balls to the warning track 'cause he's a fraction of angle off on the baseball that game - it doesn't mean he's gonna fly out all season. In that metaphor, the 'season' being the next 10 .. 20 .. 50 years..etc. In recent years, that 2017 historic non-hydrostatic height balloon over eastern mid latitude N/A ...did not have a SW heat ejection plugged into it. Contrasting, we may observe those ejections mangled into flatter, or too transient ridge scenarios that offer other problems not allowing free/synergistic temperature rises... It kind of reminds me of that February, 2015 - using the antithesis. Earlier in January that winter ...I recall saying the pattern was playing with fire ( weird word choice), because these obscene cold air masses were knifing in for 24 to 36 hours, rolling out and then it would rain - the S/W frequency was there, and they were potent. We just needed the polar to sync up - it was a temporal spacing issue. Boom - We've been avoiding the dire heat scenario by 'luck' is some senses of it all.

See...I feel uneasy with this mode of thinking ^ Simple logic, the climate is unstable. In this case, moving in a predictive +delta Climate cannot = D(climate) Reliance/assumptions footed upon a past climate that was not in the same delta ( changing...), makes using that in present era, dicey for me. That said, I also see the winters pattern behaviors as being effected in the same way over the last 10 years, doing so, regardless of ENSO this, or polar index decadal that, or PDO/AMO ... solar dogs and cats. It's not only an homage to the notion that past climate is less reliable, but it also tells me that there is an unknown forcing here that could very well mean that winter distribution of cold and snow will continue to result in unexpected ways. I short, 70 years means less to me in delat(climate), and then also adding trend of observable/objective pattern analsys/biases over recency ... 40 years ago, if some said to me, 'that hasn't happen in 70 years' I'd be more impressed than saying so in 2022, when climate oddities are raining.

There we go Brian ... Maybe you looked at a different Sat source/rendering than COD, but just in the last 2 frames, there's more of that under glue being exposed by the back edge. But my hunch is that it punches through in this case ... with the June sun and nothing above it. It'll be an interesting little nerd project for the mid day. Lol

I didn't do that... The receding frost line is about as harmlessly generic, and in fact, not exposing to any agenda, as one can be considering the subject matter of CC is real ... ...whether we want to believe it or not. To wit, that means seasonal frost line recedes. The HC stuff is one component in the total CC manifold. As far as your 6th winter? you didn't ask me but I put that at 50/50.

I knew last Sunday and Monday ...during that rare utopia weather landing cookie-cutter perfect on the Holiday necessity and mirth, we were going to pay a persecution tax for it by spending at least as much time the other way, and then some. However, there's a hidden incentive in the notion that it landed Tue-Thur morning ( so far on the latter), because unless one's retired or working from home, or just has the luxury of every day being "Sunday" - it's more important that relay into crudsville happened in this order.

as for SNE proper, I can see plenty of Earth through that. It's not that pervasive and dense. I'm thinking more like it it gets better for an hour, then pancake maybe ? But that would be after the fact. Clearing's about 15 mi W of me ...I guess I'll see soon enough.

Heh ...snark aside, this is actually an outstanding insight. That's not atypically how these things go. But, the difference here is that there is really nothing above ~ 900 mb after this lid pulls off, and it will expose that gossamer lower veil of strata to the intensity of the June sun. So if there's an exposing 'undercast' it's likely going to offer about the same resistance as Golden State did in that 4th Quarter annihilation last night. Also, as I intimated earlier... even though WPC doesn't analyze a frontal extension along the back edge, my personal hunch is that one is vestigial and by decimals of advection is enough to assist clearing.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thankfully ...there's a definitive clearing entering western MA/CT, inching east at the speed of 15 mph plus erosion rates. WPC stopped analyzing a front extending N from NE PA into NNE but the look on sat loops seems there's still a vestigial echo of that physical exertion helping to delineate why SNE is an anal hole climate compared to the everywhere else in the U.S.

I think I'm satisfied with opaque skies casting a dreary daylight over a pall of still, cool dank. This can go ahead and move along now...

Why not? it'd fit the notion of receding frost lines do to CC - ...we're not going the other way. Dearth years should become more common. I suppose a couple a of good winter are easily still within reach ... I mean it's all "supposed" to take 50 years to get DCA's climate to PWM or whatever. At some point, we'll get around to a MR Blutarsky winter out at Logan.

IF anything ... this, https://getpocket.com/explore/item/an-ancient-era-of-global-warming-could-hint-at-our-scorching-future My own op-ed: Simple conceptual question to mull over: It took the Earth a billion years to create and stow all these volatility in the form of fossil fuels; humanity comes along and threatens to release all that reactive chemistry ... back into the dynamic system in just 500 years ... and yes, time is a variable that matters! What the f do you think is going to happen? Nothing?? The PETM -like acceleration debate has been going on for years. It isn't new, no. But, we're already seeing sudden sea floor methane releases ... These are evidences. Siberian blow-out phenomenon, we're- most likely - heading in a direction of Methane inclusion in this whole mess...turning an already non-linear rise in global temperatures, into something that is accelerating too fast for most systems of nature on the planet to adapt. It is not frankly clear with climate prediction modeling whether they are factoring in that 'wild card'.

Lol ... actually it's toward the end of October but point taken - The only problem is, I could not be more check out on winter. I suppose if I was locked away in an insular work effort pouring over climate regressions for seasonal forecasting in some back office trying to meet a deadline, I wouldn't be very much in a summer mode or even interested in that setting. Barring that kind of job opportunity ever landing in my lap, I'm gonna go ahead and not give a ratz azz about anything resemble blue on a weather chart until mid November.. And it's not even a conscious choice - it seems to be connected to celestial mechanics ( i.e., the actual orbit of the Earth around the sun) for me

It's funny ...between Ray's 55 and Brian's 51 and my 54 ... We still are not "sustaining" warmth - Recall the other end of May ..end April time span. The postal tenor ( as in nearly ready to "go postal" lol - ) was angsy around the notion that we couldn't put back to back to back warm, much less milder days together, before getting the rug pulled out and slipping back into a pattern that uncannily felt like cold shit while still managing to be +.5 above normal... That's still happening. We've seen two failed heat waves at least put one 90 in away, but otherwise, 80 ...but we were never far from this kind of "putrocity" we see out there right now. It's more of a personal druthers or subjective take, granted - but I'd like a 7 days of above 76 F, with maintenance convection to keep the Stein nimrodery down to a dull roar.

As a low grade concern, yet a smidge higher than base-line climate ( qualified enough ha), we do have a flick our eyes to the side occasionally over the next several days, just to be sure.. Hurricane Agnes was forced through the Central American wall but it's remnants are being reactivated by the Euro. The other models are doing so too...just not with this same proficiency we see below: So long as that westerly limb -NAO is in place ( per the post above, D5). It is not impossible that this TC phoenix might be forces closer along the EC.