Typhoon Tip

NAM appears to have come around to warmer per this 12z run. Given up on that strange low level RH contamination - it was putting out 95% choke in the bottom, under nil mid and U/A cloud ceilings/May sun; with the ocean flow cutting off, that wasn't clear where that was coming from. Anyway, the 980 mb over Logan surges to +24C on Saturday, 18z ...which is probably 27 or 28 C in the real 2-meter ( not what is displayed in those graphic charts that say 2-meter but stop at the adiabats). +22C above the 2-meter mixing depth tomorrow. That all translates probably the low 80s F even tomorrow, and mid/upper 80s Saturday.

67 at 10... '10 after 10' rule of thumb seems about right. Transparent strata appears too thin to be much limitation on heating. The strew float like islands in a much broader blue sky so ample sun. Denser E-S but even there it's trending less.. You know, we need the rain? My lawn - as a yokel's metric ... - is not growing/replacing very well for May after just one mowing... I don't recall having a decent soaking in quite some time. That coastal/cut-off ordeal didn't bring rains to much of the area - just choked off the sun and Labradorian flow kept the trees dormant. lol - but yeah.. heading into 4 days of 75 to 83 with low rain and high sun

Slate gray an hour ago here, but as hi res vis satellite imagery revealed...it was totally clear just NW. Mainly a S-E region, strata rebuild during the cooling darkness of the overnight. But now as the sun intervals burst through, the loop also reveals it's very thin. Should be clearing lowering RH quickly NW of ~ BOS-PVD. Sooner NW. Quite a milder feel to the still air this morning comparing recent mornings. Already 57 here. Higher launch pad. Looking at the low level gradient, very light. Even out at Logan is 'cast to stay under 10 mph, tho still NE. That's probably variable by Cambridge side. That does, however, set stage for the local sea-breeze circulation to set up.. So probably a boundary works inland toward I-95 and eventually 495 late afternoon. Should be upper 70s out here if/when that arrives - not certainty. It's a tedious, nerdy now cast to give a shit about a random still day in May but what can I say - that's the way I roll. lol

man... Davenport IA is presently 95/69 That's about what we seem to max out here. We need to trade off the DP to get that 95 --> 100. We have have been higher, just more typically..

Oh I see what it's doing and it's not likely right. It appears to be taking the return flow and mixing with the dry air in place, and wetbulbing the low-levels to near saturation. Least that's what it looks like. As the wind veers around to SW at ALB -for example- the llv RH jumps to 90+% at 18z Friday with blue sky over head, and the temperature there stagnates. That's BS

Made 73 here along Rt 2/eastern Mohawk Trail in N Mass... 75 in MHT, NH and 82 in ALB. Over top was a good call ... but now the question, does is bleed south. NAM says no... Not sure I buy it though. Boston staying 17C in T1 ( 980 MB level) with a WSW breeze under full sun, with 850s all the way at 14.5 C on Friday like the NAM's selling - wrong. Looks like it's trying to pollute the lower levels with surplus RH with no prior DP advection ... yeah it's doing something naughty. I wonder if the 'winter algorithms' are still firing in the guidance - used to be a factor in the old days. Maybe the seasonal change is seamless in the tech these days - no idea just conjecture. At any rate, synoptically it looks to me like 78 here tomorrow, and 80s on Friday. Saturday the pan-region tickles dp of 60 with the smell of distant thunder-able air.

I knew it was coming ... I didn't wanna mention it ahead of his announcing - who would? but yeah, memories galore. Great forecaster. Above all else, a great human being. Deserves all the credit and them some, as well as happiness and success in any new found directives, or in freedom.

Top 10 day easily here ... 0 cloud Very low RH Barely a perceptible breeze 72 At least at this 1:15 pm moment, it's physically impossible to be better without a concurrent double BJ by the two hottest [enter preference] on the planet -

wow...72 now. It's bursting up ... I gotta think tho that as soon as the ocean gets the memo over what's happening here in the interior it'll send a debbie downer gift inland... Boston, and most importantly down there by Scott, are soothing 55's while we're 70+ - awesome

Yeh ... we've actually suddenly broke the pattern here. Rather unexpected, the persistent tree swaying white noise ENE gusting has all but stopped here, and the surrounding region's home site/station obs have all lurched to 70 to 71 ... interesting. KFIT is 70 with a paltry 8 mph NE drift at this point, too, do NWS. KASH 70/ 6 mph. This is ahead of the NAMarama ding dong machine numbers - I think...

I think what he and I are describing, though, is the 'synergistic heat' - like rogue waves in the ocean. Those events that have occurred globally that have never happened before. That heat last year or whenever, was impressive but it's not of that former ilk.

We've been playing with fire ( all puns deliberate and hopefully as annoying as possible ) I've echoed that sentiment a few times in recent yearly springs. I'd go so far as to say it would be a 'wake up call' event? You know, "sociologically," we need it to hit policy idiots ... usually in the wallet is the most effective way to execute change. However, since heat and climate are (unfortunately) only indirectly related, the best next thing we can do is bake balls and lower sperm potency.. heh. Have the fictional, but plausible, nuke heat strike upon the whole lot of it, ROA to PWM. 106 by day, can't sleep by night diurnals - but so extreme that the grid fails so no one is comfortable, not even the rich. A true big dawg panter wave ... like, the Pac NW. Having it last too. Like it relaxes back to say 90 for a couple days.. only before doing it again a week later. Suddenly, green industry surges on Wall Street. No shit!? Thing is, ... I almost wonder even in the CC footprint, our geologic/geographic circumstance is somehow physically unable to get that done. Something I have noticed in recent years... when there is a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW ejection showing up in the models, they'll miss the DPs aspect .. But what occurs appears to trade temperature for more back-o-ball-sack slimy air. Not sure...but I think it's a correction to see the natural circumstance as the days near in the model, that we are the anus of all continental filth ( lol, is this gross enough ?) Seriously, if we could swap the DP in one of those, +22C at 800 mb with D-slope trajectory should get it done, temp could nudge 104 at BED, or even go higher by pings. The thing is, ... the scale and degree of the Pac NW anomaly, I don't know how/if we can +4 SD the temperature side at HFD-PVD-ORH-BOS-MHT-PWM...etc... because of pollution - just wondering if there's too much bio-miasma and industrial ozone. interesting.

It looks like ( early detection ) the warm up nearing the 20th of the month has legs. There's an emerging signal in all three, EPS/GEFs/GEPs.. for the -PNAP to reassert after the front/trough dip early next week remains progressive, rather than carving in and establishing as a pattern regression. After it moves off with an ~ 2 day more seasonal cool back, ... it remains to be seen how much so the recurrence of ejected ridge will bloom, but longer term -PNA is still in place, so the "correction vector" is more not less with that. The operational GFS, both 00z and 06z have remarkable consistency, run-to-run-considering a D9-12 range. That's a hot look there ( and yes Kevin, finally) with DPs. Considering the range, it still doesn't mean a whole helluva lot saying that but the GGEM is on board too fwiw, and these are reasonably good fits for both their ensemble means and the canvas arguments... Blah blah, we end up with a chance for more positive departures - above climatology - coming on toward the end of this next week.

Thought had to occurred to me yesterday; we're about to click up to the next stage in warm season's approach. If perhaps more symbolic, but those bar numerics nicely illustrate. Starting tomorrow the cool days are like the way the warmest days have been over the last three weeks. While the warmer days have a legit shot and "hot" Today's already trying. The air smells like it's coming. I know that sound weird...but I have a super power - I can smell the next season. Haha... seriously, most can tell summer air, vs autumn air... winter... etc. Then sure enough, the DPs are rising with the temp some... intsead of 22 F they are nearing 40 and that little difference combined with the climbing uber hot May sun has the morning air differently appealed compared to where it has been. Tomorrow might come abruptly to some. Tho not hot per se, bouncing the front yard hover temperatures clear almost 80 for the first time is like the first heroine dose. I think we're gonna have problem though E of 495 up here and SE of the Pike / 84 CT... Hard to say, but the gradient is weak and that much burst warmth in the interior is liable to really set off the local breeze circulation machine. Radar may show the side-winder moving inland.

We need these warm days that seem like they’ve been in wait as long as the technological history of the Internet to actually happen. If we manage regional pan-dimension 84/58 day night relays spanning 4 days worth, at even 80% of that anomaly, it’ll all catch up with rapidity. Frost advisories won’t work as well

Kevin... seriously/curiously - why do you have to always ... like autopilot apply spin toward more. The problem is, when you act to agree, but then spin, that sorta inadvertently couches that person into your leaning aspect - I realize this is a public bus stop on the Internet and therefore decorum is escaping at best, at other times there are no "real" rules...but c'mon. Lol I'm just trying to justify a warmer appeal. I'm not surging into DPs this, and humidity that. That's your bag - In fact, I suspect it is dry warmth and bigger diurnal spreads for Tolland/CT until late Friday ...more likely Saturday, and then it depends how much theta-e advects in - though I agree the DPs'll elevate some before that fropa early next week. I suppose by convention of being the 'first exposure' to any DP it may feel more humid by then.

Nah, I think we inch to 69 here and bust MOS already. The gradient is crucially, already weakened enough. I don't see a sea-breeze getting the 3-km's western extension by 18z, today. Not sure where that comes from tomorrow. Maybe I am missing - is there a cold pulse coming ?? By extension and form, that looks an over done sea-breeze intrusion. Not sure why tomorrow would be worse than today - but maybe... I dunno.

Heh... I don't think keeping CT that cold is going to work out too well if the Euro and GFS are indicating that Those models are not likely correct if they are, unless we alter the synoptics. The MEX numbers - btw - are warm fwiw. But the former pretty clearly signal the gradient weakens ( first ...), then tends to go offshore ( 2nd), then definitely commits to doing so. Granted, taking 3 days to totally transition but by Thursday ... we're likely 80 in HFD.

I dunno about the 'chipper' part ... but I agree with the latter reasoning in general. The thing is, there's two separate mechanics in play, too. If the gradient lessens enough ...the seabreeze takes over and penetrates farther inland. If the gradient stays stronger and focuses ...it'll depend ( again ) whether that is more N or E in the NE manifold. Kind of confusing a little. I just posted about that a few moments ago, how it it really may depend on where the NNE vs the ENE axis ends up... It's almost like coastal frontal tendency...despite all other synoptic metrics not typically being involved for/when considering the presence of one. Interesting in that sense... Anyway, more NNE is a warm trajectory in this weirdly inverted synoptic setting... It's over top warmth as we know blah blah. But 850s to 925 mixing depth temperatures/adiabats already supporting those 70s you mention. Which taking place underneath full 100% solar max equiv radiation dump-in? If the wind stays N at FIT, we bust the MEX machine numbers by a few. Hell, it's 67 here in Ayer, mid way between FIT and ASH, ...already surpassing the the NAM's previous fixes for the high.

I'm thinking if the wind direction can stay N more than E, in the "NE" aspect ... would machine guidance bust too cold by a few this afternoon. More N has the advantage of being less cold ocean modulated ... but also is d-slope trajectory. If the wind bends E biased tho, we'll cap lower. That's the thinking anyway - This pattern is 'over top' heat. Given just a little offshore tendency .. the 850s/925 support mid 70s under full unadulterated May sun and non oceanic interference. Later in the week, the moment the flow commits to offshore more fully we'll soar.

Other than our region of the planet just having a static, significant handicap given any 'set up' ...always, the other obvious issue when synoptically overcoming limitations then is our topographic layout. One can't really see more than a few short miles in any direction, before bucolic tree lines, nestled betwixt hills, obscure CB bases entirely. Comparsing the same effort in OK, KS, IA ..TX...even IL/IN/MI/OH...etc, you can see the full profiles some 50 miles away. Around here? I've seen mid level turrets that look suspiciously rotated... Got all lubed up with excitement and weirnered my way over the hills through densely wooded roads 10 or 15 minutes, climbing elevation toward known vantage places ... finally busting out onto a ridge line, only to same-old-same-old see that the organized inflow has no hope of extension/touching down because the MESO won't penetrate the serrated Ekman boundary layer around here. I mean the inflow channels can't organized below 2,000 kt. Of course they do from rare time to time... lol, just as Great Barrington or Worcester or Monson ...etc... But by an large, we have bottom third of CB disruption - in the world of convection, we are the wheelchair crowd. We've had the following conversation before but ...you're young bro. Get out while you are young enough to adapt to life changes easier/less overhead. You start getting seriously lade and it's over - usually... But you can relo with a new/young Met degree out there and start working adjunct to the "severe weather industry" and you gotta think with a minimal creativity you can find/access those opportunities, because I can assure you... of all geographical areas of this world, that region of the country DEFINITELY has an a-to zinc industry aspect, from information all the way to building science, which is an immense spectrum. Not sure what your reason for staying is... I'm sure you have it. Not intending to get into that/counsel on the matter... Just sayn'... F, man go to grad school out there.

mm ... we're also noticing that over the course-work of your posting this CAPE product ... the west [frontage] is outpacing the eastern advance. If that tendency continues... it times out such that we'll end up celebrating 2 hrs of substantive CAPE [probably] limited to CT granted, but by then perhaps too brief to matter. Ultimately ... the entire effort destined to end up like a climate ass waxing - ...thanks for playing the psychosis for convection in New England mind f* game. How we enjoyed the journey -

Lol, depends what one means by 'horizon' ... if by distinction of time, that may be so. But by distinction of geography and space, it looks wet on the N-W-S horizons.

I'm inclined to think so as well. It seems with the sun finally unabated the rest of the week, we'll stow enough day time energy to out last the shorter nights - plus the llv fresh arctic fart machine is slowly winding down. But the 'radiation battery' is fully charging without that high clouds. Such that a clear night will bleed down 'the charge' but because there is so much quota going in, and the nights are shorter, it's harder for decoupled layers to really crater. At the other end of this week.. we're not seeing synoptics capable of offsetting the 'black body radiation' ... BTU/HR = stephan B constant, times a bunch of other hieroglyphics... I think the last couple of days 'cheated' to get there... We had this miasma of high clouds not enough to cap radiation and elevate temps at night, but sure as shit enough to dim the sun. Add in daily diet of parched dry air sourcing out of that weird high pressure, ..it just was a perfect tulip wilter.

I don't have a problem with those sort of findings - in fact, they don't surprise me, really. I've carried on with the mantra for years re the personally observed faster-than-normal troposphere - particularly during the cold season/book-ends of the cold seasons. If not in the 'appeal', outright presentation of the base-line atmospheric behavior,' now spanning 10 years... has biased fast. It's not like there is a lack of suggestive/empirical evidence. Albeit indirect, the "propensity" ( propulsion - see what I did there ..heh), for commercial airlines to set air-land-relative speed records on flights moving W to E across the oceanic basins, being an example of this. Witnessing S/Ws arrive over Washington/Oregon, stem wind a cyclone over PA, barely giving it enough time to secondary before the entire busted ravioli smears off the chart leaving Maine - all in a mere 72 to 84 hours. It may all be anecdotal, but given to the backing observations being real ... it's powerful circumstantial evidence. The atmosphere has sped up. Seldom do we see a relaxed gradient middle winter, anyway. However, in recent (decade/ 'since 2000'), this appears surplussed more at times.. Progressive S/W wave translations through a field that in its self has trouble finding stable R-wave structures before they are forced to modulate. Storms with more rapid cyclogenesis, having briefer residence in any one location. Storms cut-off, the most intense ones.. they may move slowly. I have not seen a cyclone really "stall" in years. Subtler fuzzy metric. The events in the atmosphere are ultimately conveyed along by the vagaries of the wind; eventually ...any hurrying in doing so might realize in the surface as well? Now ...there's still a ginormous mathematical/physical gap that join the observation of a faster than normal westerlies, between the 700 and 300 mb levels, with the unrelenting butt bang NE "trade wind" hosing New England... But just from an educated conjectural view point, the ends prooobably geo-physically meet there.