Typhoon Tip

I swear I was just internally musing that… And frankly I thought that yesterday per one or two runs as well GFS was taking a lot of really deep routes through the northern golf interface establishing some very low surface barometric pressure really low in latitude. Heh Maybe we could do what 93 failed which is to have that low come another 100 miles east because it doesn’t do a lot of good to get 3 feet of snow along the ridge line of the Appalachian mountains after 12 days of histrionics by the weather channel lol I’m just being a jerk there in kidding

Well hopefully people can make the distinction between hyperbole over a single model run… Successfully separating that from an actual objective prediction. Because I’d like to express myself here and say that that GFS solution is a wide area multi regional destructive coastal bomb - wow

If the mere site of an averse weather chart is enough to erode on peoples nerves…this 12 Z icon solution will be a kin to taking a soothing warm bath in battery acid

Well… Keep in mind that there’s also an ocean wind component to this in the first half or even 3/4 of this thing blowing in straight from the east really that probably penetrated all the way in so that’s skewing the distribution around that forcing, too

Similarly… It’s 39 here in Ayer but it’s 41 over in the Littleton line; then the other way just 4 miles W it’s 34 and snowing. This is the situation where that rain snow line’s going to creep south during the day Like 2 miles an hour as the storm begins to curl around south eastern mass and the wind backs in the interior and all that obviously you know that’s just saying for the general reader. I think it’s interesting that the euro finally caved to the GFS position being slightly more south east

Not to be heavy handed or holier than thou or anything condescending ... (really) but just an observation... Saying 'nothing is going right' regarding a system that is still a week away is kind of amusing. Maybe we could all benefit from resetting expectations for starters ?

I'd like to add more to his ^ idea . (Try to stay lucid and objective, even if the reality of this is a bit abject ) West oriented/biased PNAP responses to rising +PNA signals, are not good. He's right about the confluence as well ... (that's also directly or indirectly related to mode/modality within western limb of the NAO), but crucial to the evolution/emergence of what this signal will ultimately become over eastern N/A, is very related to the behavior of the Pacific relay into western N/A. As was the case last night's 00z Euro ... a ridge axis collocating with the WC is skewed from climatology (anyway), but you can see that mechanically playing out in that as the big ejection into the flow of the powerful wave takes place ... it is slicing SE earlier than is pleasing to the eye, consequently the wave starts to break too soon ... The natural question becomes whether that is correctable. From this range, the auto response is yes... I'm sort of wondering if the signal is so big that the moving parts might be more stable than usual. On the other hand we can mull around with ideas over whether this is just anomalous - as all systems have their own eye-color that deviates a little from the tribe somewhat. We can certainly/plausibly send a bomb S of LI on a west-biased PNAP surge... just as much as we've seen systems cut to ALB with -NAOs... It's certainly not etched in stone for a system that's D6..7.

How is a 963 mb disorganized… Lol

Other than inconsequential differences … another near identical GFS depiction of intense amplitude carving SE over the MS valley. This appears destined to another explosive result.

32/31 at night should locking.

It’s looking like this will require height falls and fall rates to be meaningful. Now casting…. There’s not much of either this hr but it’s supposed to step up after 12z I think

37 and drizzle yuck

Nah gotta go societal

Fwiw, it's a historic in depth no question... It's sub 965 in the Boston Harbor. I'm not worried at all about ptype, despite this run running liquid as far W as ORH, because that's clearly model BL hallucinations when the 500 mb is < 520 DM in the core of 4 or 5 contoured isohypsotic canyon. That's likely snowing everywhere accept the elbow. You almost want the model doing that at this range in a weird way...

It's not a high risk for occurrence ... but, should it bully into the Ohio Valley and dig more, we end up dealing with some sort of possible storm implication with that...and it would not be abundantly clear whether it would effect the upstream arrival of the one we are currently targeting... It's just that it's a non-zero chance for interference ...but it's low for now. I wouldn't call it a 'turd' Winter' lol... but if we must, hey - it's really really polished!

We will also have to keep an eye on that lead bundle of mechanics that gets inserted into southern Canada between 120 and 144 hours… As is it’s not bad as it’s dangling precipitously capable of hooking in, but if it gets any stronger it will change the entire landscape of the mid range.

What the operational euro is doing from what I’m seeing is it’s stalling in the Gulf of Maine …generating new subsidiary lows within that general pan and then bouncing the circulations around the common center kind of Fujiwara. Somebody in northern Maine probably get about 40 inches of snow out of that a single dose but whatever that thing is doing at this range I find it hard to believe that a 975 MB is going to go over the other half of Cape Cod and we only get 9 inches of snow west of Boston. There’s some intra-trough negative interference going on. … All silly details it’ll be completely different inside of a couple of runs.

Wow wtf

Coalescence in the GEFs re mid U/A. All carry deep geopotential medium toting powerful wave astride the EC Average Max centers on 200-220 hrs with more than half expressing this as a multi contoured closed embedded 500mb sfc. SFC evolution varies more … but all have cyclone of significance associated with this impressive, what also appears to be heading for the time being, toward multi stream phase.

Lol maybe a bigger “plow” if the metaphor is confusing

This may be a little early to begin a thread, but this signal's weight is excessive. Large events often capture space/time in the technology, well prior to the longer term performance averages. This appears to be one of those times... Having said that, this is only 7..8 days away, which a system of this type/scale and given to the above facet, moves the dial on that ( I feel..). Further justification - if needed - in the fact that the synopsis begins to scaffold by just 5 days from now over the NE Pacific, and then rapidly ensues that contortion of the local hemisphere into really ... excuse the hyperbole, a scenario that has one pathway out: 'through the cage' as they say in the Plains. The PNA is rising ...most importantly it is reflected over the eastern limb, where is the relay from the Pacific --> N/A ... This drives a "jolt" local hemispheric index mode change, taking the Perennial North American Pattern aspect of the total PNA domain, and sending into a rather robust correction necessity. Ridging that has been absent more so than less, over western N/A burgeons over the continent. The super-synopsis, where is the correction vector, is in fact pointed at something large, so as these operational models have been more on than off, with bomb implications, well duh. The 12z to 00z EPS shift in the means centered on 12z this next Friday the 23rd is nothing shy of exceptional. That much geopotential height implosion, combined with southward single run modulation geometrical layout is about as coherent as the current state of technology is capable at this range.. I am aware that the GEFs is are little more vague about this period, ...as are recent GFS operational runs. However, the GFS also spend 2.5 days worth during the run up to the current affair... with 0 system! It's not like there is no precedence for it losing systems in this range. The super-synopsis with the teleconnector modality in the PNA now through the end of next week... coming from the GEFs no less, does not offer as much support for the GFS. So there's some heavy wording above -yup. However, that's in deference to the 'signal'. I am however greater that 50% confident in at minimum a significant multi-faceted event. There is some concern with "model magnification" ( I suspect this situation may transcend that performance snag, however) and the usual other assortment reasons to not go completely bonkers at this range. But I feel this is situation that enters the commitment to an event earlier than normal, the rest will decide the scaling and wheres. Man... that 00z EPS wih a 988 mb low near Cape Cod a 210 hours is really astonishing... What concerns me about the GEFs is that it's "mode" is more intense and committed to a solution that the mean is appears to be vaguer... That's a red flag that outliers and skewing the signal - I don't like that when said outliers are against the supers-synoptic signaling.

I feel like that’s true up and down route 2 down here as well

Might still be breaking early. Interesting trends tho.

I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

Looks like two. Pack S/w subsumed by an inevitable N stream/spv segment. storm enthusiast probably don’t want triple Stream phasers even though it sounds cool to say that ha ha but seriously triple stream phasers tend to require full latitude, which means they’re happening at planetary scales …which means they’re moving really fast. Two stream phase have better mechanics for slow down/ install and do retrograde etc, pounding winter weather for many hours