Typhoon Tip

It may actually be more raw and worse feeling for Boston metro arieas and E/SE Mass, because the air is coming with more oceanic mixing - the peninsula effect ...it'll be cooler. But also, as the layer deepens a little, there is likely to be a genesis of strata mank, so it's not likely to stay 60 -

Lol, get ur long pants and light jackets ready.. BD front just passed Boston/Logan location. The temperature went from 82 to 62 in 14 minutes, and the wind is gusting to 33 mph from the ENE. Reality cometh!

Once or twice in 10 years I've seen a BD on a three day map...correct in near terms and ultimately hold back to being stationary up in southern Maine. Otherwise, no ... There's a reason for that. It's the lower level resolution of the models, and their limitations in understanding the boundary layer conditions - exactly - as the cold ocean, the mountains west, and the coastal plain ...all interact at the very bottom of the atmosphere. It's fuzzy in that region. Adding to that, cold air by physical law, will always travel under warm air because of its higher specific gravity. So, you put cold air in a fuzzy layer, the models are thus more apt NOT to see it properly... What that all means is ...it is far in a way more likely that a cold BD air mass will be missed, than seen - such if they are seen, the forcing for them must be obscene. A little hyperbole, but just very large. In other words, the uncertainty is always sloped in favor of actually getting them.

Mmm not really ... That's coming down along a steep azymuth but not from the NE or E. I mean it's all a silliness anyway - a cold front's a cold front. They go by one's location, one's location gets cold. Front. Nature doesn't care. LOL. It's all stupid... But BDs get a little distinction in that typically fronts move from west to east, .... or in the least have west component embedded in their motion. But BD's really do purely move with east component that deviates their motion from pure N. They can happen anywhere. But this region is particularly prone to them for a few complex reasons - That example you provided has too much west component to be "backing in" - at least from that look. But as an homage to the silliness of it, that front probably is a backdoor event, out in time, further south along the EC. It'll at some point run out of W-E momentum over New England, and then pivots around it's self down over NJ and starts moving SW for PHL/DCA....

What does the state of China's cultural have to do with the fact that the U.S.'s is unacceptable and teetering with intolerability - and gunning down children certainly qualifies to anyone sane. Nothing - ..that's the answer. Means nothing to say China is a shitty place, too. 0 logic China can be China all it wants - has 0 bearing on our seeking a societal state that does not do what transpired last week.

Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day. wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom - 12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies. Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate. Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through. Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills... This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days. -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance. It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down. As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead. It's just not very summer like. That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency.

Yeah, I haven't looked at the soundings, but guidance rip-read looks like a standard good ole fashioned BD the way the majority. ....Rudely butting in.

I've lived in the region for 35 years give or take ... I'm inclined to agree that rarely do they bang their way in - just based upon anecdotal experience. However, there have been exceptions. One notable one ( Ryan out in CT has posted rad and write-ups about it) was a fascinating supercell that developed on the BD boundary out over western Mass.. It traversed over the Springfield area, with large hail, then continued to move almost due S bringing large hail accounts through the state of CT. Gulf balls accumulating in gutters to curb height - but I also write fiction as a hobby so that part may be embellished some LOL. I do specifically recall lots of damage reports to windows/automobiles, though. The hail was damaging. I remember the event vividly from afar. I was a student up at UML. We cased that out and got some lecture efforts out of the deal. I remember the radar of the time had DBZ's ... 75 or something like they turned the dish around and zapped its self. Huge returns... very deep in the atmosphere. 45+ K tops on the over shooting domes easily. That boundary cut off a high 90s heat chance for eastern areas, btw. I'm just musing the past occurrence here. I don't know what's going to take place tomorrow...probably just a conversion into low ceiling doom, with indoor lighting turning on by mid afternoon over eastern SNE.

Looks like it slams back screen doors, snapping flags and knocking 14 F off your temps in the first 1/2 hour of passage ~2 pm on Tuesday. ..Actually where you are it may be less pulsed or noticeable like that...but a ENE breeze over the canopy and noticeably cooler during that time frame, nonetheless. NYC by dusk.. Up here, we're done by 9 am ... Worcester by 10am. Wed morning, everyone dawns under slate gray Labradorian vomit in an unsettling 50s chill. But, you'll at least partially break out where you are circa late morning, and probably still make the low 70s that day. So not too bad. As for eastern SNE, they're persecuted until the mid week main frontal thrust just resets the whole mess and we start over, synoptically. That cinema or something similar is our regional destiny. Hell, if you look at the GGEM ? In principle, there's some semblance of a Miller B type low ... Blocking in eastern Canada, stops the Lakes low, and a portion of its mechanics shears off underneath, and a weakly responding low over upstate NY relocates/develops along and E of Long Island. That's Miller B... Acceptance of a stolen summer week and just setting sights on the longer range ... which ironically, looks uninspired and boring, is our reality. Anything else is fake news .

Get everybody out there for a wondrous spectacle of natures awe to at last gawk at their own deaths oops

Can you imagine if a dday meteor was hidden in the awe inspiring oohs and ahh … Then it’s like ooh ahh whoa oh ah um hey-uh SHIIIIIT !

That BD air mass is really shallow, too. It's looking like some kind of freak set up where even for BD physics, this thing may get all the way down to the Del Marva no more than 2,000 or even 1800' along a floor slab of air. Look at the pressure contours carefully and it can't even spill over the White Mountain cordillera - it's not even as deep as the mean altitude of the topographic divide. That's what the NAM doing anyway. It's possible this is trying to thin in the guidance... The Euro looks like it waits until 15z or even noon on Tuesday to really momentum the boundary through Worcester, continuing along a trend to slow it. It matters for convection and of course temperature distribution. It's also overrunning strobe lightning over NNE as the flow hooks rich heat over top/overrunning

Unstable hemispheric scale - We see there is a suspect TS astride the SE coast, otherwise, it's a four nodal trough/ridge arena over eastern Canada and the lower Maritime, which looks reasonably balanced... But, this massive L/W trough from the Date Line to California out over the Pacific punching into the Pac NW. It's unbalanced. There's more negative in the integral than positive, just eye-balling that is obvious. Things will necessarily balance better than that. Either the trough in the Pac weakens...or the ridging at mid latitudes balloons in the E. Could be a panel away from moving into that look, too

Man ... on the 1 to 10 UV index that's gotta be about an 11 out there

That is interesting... Like Chris' just said, convection passing SE through Maine and the BD fans back SW as it's leaving. Looking at the synoptics more discretely my self, it appears the BD's position in time - on this run anyway ... - is very sensitive to those convective responses/forcing actually taking place. There's actually two accelerations in the BD from convection. The first being the one he noted, but between 18 and 21 Z there appears to be another convection burst from mid Whites' to Coastal NH, and the outflow then nudges the boundary even further SW. That can all certainly happen in a vacuum of any other considerations, but ... those convective aspects have to verify. I was also looking at the LGA and ALB on the grids and those locatons are in the low to perhaps mid 90s while Boston is 54 F by 21z Tuesday on this NAM run. 40 to 45 F spreads is getting excessive even for a BD, this late in the year. I've seen that extremeness during April... It's almost June though.

I was wondering about maybe a 3 to 6am MCS, runnin' SE down the roller coaster. showers/storms maybe more organized, just not well handled in the runs - like. Eastern sections are doomed - maybe we can get some entertainment first.

Tomorrow may make 91. It's funny where we were with the modeling ideas for today and tomorrows, as stood 5 days ago. Especially the GFS, which had 50s in mist when not raining east wind shits. 52 92 That's why we always trust a 5 day depiction LOL BD still there but a bit less intrusive in recent runs. Unclear ... As I just mentioned to Saguaro, it's more apt to happen than not in a -NAO. But as is, the BD is delayed 6 to 9 hours, and, it also appears to wash out before even getting to NYC. hmm. Not sure I'd trust that if CT. If the -NAO is regime does pin a 50/50-like vortex ivo of NF, a boundary between continental heat ejected from the W will set up between. Experience alone teaches us that if see one on the map ice-bergs knock on the door in Atlantic Georgia. heh. If the new runs were to continue the back-off trend in an equal redraw, that keeps the boundary to about PWM or so and we swelter through Tuesday. I am not personally leaning that way

Right ( bold ..). And we're still getting inconsistencies in the position of the BD's movement over time. Latest guidance seems to backed off on that. Five days ago, the Euro had no clue that a BD would be there. None of them did. Then the GFS hinted ( uh oh...), four days ago but the Euro still carried a big heat signal with less of that... Three days ago they were all in, though, and the heat was completely redrawn... 97 to 57 style. Thing is, BD party pisser in the models is/was a correlative fit for -NAO ... ( I mentioned this in the presently marooned June thread that Jerry started). Then, these last two day, the models deepened the 50/50 vortex, pinning it in place ... A BD should really intrude. It's like 'why in f spend time on such minutia' ... I think being 92 versus 60 is pretty impressive correction to have to deterministically negotiate if one is a forecaster. Here we are two days ...those over-arcing themes are still in place, yet the Euro trends considerably less in both the 00z and 06z versions. The GFS too ...The GFS ... in a rare show of parity - For a forecaster .. it's a good thing this contention wasn't during today and tomorrow - lol.. Because the variation across the boundary could be as much as 54 at BVY, to 94 at EWR (Beverly Mass/N shore of Boston vs Newark, NJ). It would make a difference for yard and pool parties, huh

I'm with this guy at this point.. San Francisco Giants manager: ‘I don’t plan on coming out for the anthem going forward until I feel better about the direction of our country’

Snowing around Lake Winnipeg on June 2nd, GFS and GGEM. Huh. I don't think I've ever seen that. I'm not entirely sure what the climate for piece of shit weather is for that area of Manitoba, but that geography isn't hugely far N of the U.S. border in terms of Meterological scales, so I wonder.. This seasonal lag stuff due to velocity surplussing, and holding onto R-wave identities longer into the warm seasons... is a real thing. It's mechanizing weird cold plumes into mid latitudes that turn around to 90s. All you'd have to do is have that thing over western Ontario, and N VT upslopes snow.

You're going out of your way to spin/characterize them by using that turn of phrase - Again... it may have 'look like' that was the case, but that may not have been their intent.

Mmm ... I think the entire scenario is transcending frustration, no doubt. As the civility begins the insurmountable task of processing the boundless scale in atrocities of that godless day, ...shock will surely first fade to anger. And don't get us wrong, that anger is truly justified. It's righteous indignation then elevated to a state apoplectic rage, proportional to the crime - only this? Has not proportional anger. It even transcends that. But, the human condition needs targets to 'structure.' The structure alleviates. This is just the way people are. One does not have to be a psychologist to know this - just having suffered the vicissitudes of U.S. woes over the last 30 years is sufficient to see things in this way. Enters ...the blame game. It is probably too early in this crisis to take away people's target - particularly when that target gives that structure, which is the only avenue available right now that immediately, though falsely, ameliorates the boundless sorrow and vexation ... etc. The blaming is still 'group transference,' though. And, as is usually the case... it will carry on in a irreconcilable row, probably go to far ( prediction) - when the real target needs to be the societal norms and culture that enabled the happening in the first place. I know you didn't ask for any of this - I'm not intending to lecture or bloviate ...just op-ed here. The police/emergency responders initially may have made the wrong decision in how to handle the situation. But what was the right situation? Anyone blaming them for not "rushing" the assailant, initially, should realize that the first step in a hostage crisis or negotiation is to not pull the trigger of the assailant. Rushing doesn't end well. This situation is being exposed, on going ... What kind of weapon was the assailant using? If it was a semi-automatic rifle muted by a silencer tech, through the brick and steel of the edifice? Responders may not have known there was active discharges until it was too late. Later on...that might "look like" they let it happen by masses of people caught up in the rage and seeking targets to resent ... There's a lot of generalizations being sewn out of fragments of truth that may not really fully yet stitch the whole reality. I can imagine there are component threads that can be sewn to together to make them look like they sat by cowardly and "let" blood run to protect them selves - If time proves that is the case, it is what it is. But that strikes me as a bit over the top. In any given community or group, there's typically one or two of those self-preserving types that would fail that group of people - seldom do they ALL calculate like that. We would be talking about an entire retinue of responders deliberately avoiding the central tenet, to protect and to serve, doing so along the entire marshal ranks of command no less. Heh... I'm going to let time surface more truth and clarity. I don't mean to suggest the officers were not at fault - I'm just not ready to impugn the whole system of a social support over this just yet. That's a whole 'nother quasi anarchistic suggestion where people really don't want to go whether they realize that or not.

It is ... It's a specter portrayed, beginning about 3 days ago in the guidance, and since they've all agreed ...some more or less aggressively, that the previous big heat suggestion is getting completely obtruded by that aspect bullying in like cops showing up precisely 2 minutes before the party would have really gotten good. heh I am a little suspect of any solutions that 'hold it back' like a pregnant water balloon full of cold air and mank, tenuously unpopped, down into Essex Co in NE Mass. If it gets to that point it gets to TTN NJ

It actually looks like a below normal for couple of weeks of June is in route - Tanked AO typically doesn't matter so much by this point in the calendar year, but it is in this case it's markers are actually reaching down into the mid latitudes ...driving NAO bocking nodes ... Seems to overwhelm the -PNA. The models have just sort of given up on the Pacific and just given carte blanch to the idea of blocking demolishing warmth/suppressing below the 40th parallel. And the extended hemisphere doesn't appear to change that until the 10th of the month. If I saw these in January I'd be looking for a systemic correction event ... Obviously telecons don't correlate the same way in summer,. no. But, the ens ,means and oper versions, et al, are reflecting the exertion nonetheless. It's funny, ... a week ago we were panicking over a Mem Day butt bang, followed by a heat wave next week... Interesting how matters have morphed so precisely opposite. That BD looks like a 40 mph gusting trees swaying whip lash cold insert Tuesday. It may be 76 at 9 am, and 53 at 9 pm across eastern NE. And then the ridge decays and mooshes the heat south there after. The westerlies dip beneath ORD-BOS line and that's the ball game.

Members of Senate are blocking/filibustering legislation put forth by Democrats - ...and that's unfortunate, that word "democrats" Because this is not something that should be politicized - obviously to anyone on the intelligent side of sanity. But the "functioning psychosis" of what the system has become, is operatively guided by political boundaries; in obstructing passages based upon the origin/source of the legislation, rather than base upon the merits and virtue of what's contained in document, logically means they are preserving something else. Steve Kerr is right - the motivation for doing that is ultimately not to piss off the constituencies that put these turkeys into power. ...The filibuster antics are thus to preserve their seats. They need to be forced to give a semi-automatic rifle a blow job before they realize what their priorities should be, because to choose their seats over massacre, is tantamount to sociopathy - the sarcasm to suggest they will only be forced to change when it effects themselves, because that's how sociopaths operate. We're likely to witness the dissolution of the U.S. - or perhaps descent into civil duress or war, before guns would ever be gathered up and outright made illegal to commoners. However, the next better recourse would be to ratify universal background - within which criteria can be and would be fashioned to make it compulsory, mental states among other gems about an individual, designed to ferret out a person's true motivation, intent and purposes for seeking to own a guy.