Typhoon Tip

Why are you bunning me? that's the model doing that - I didn't run the f'n thing in my basement. That's what Ray was talking about . If reality conflicts with one's personal narratives and motivations or whatever, they impugn. It's silly - the G F'n S is snowing in upstate NY... deal with it

Depends on the scaling, actually... In terms of absolute value, no way - it could be -20 diurnal 'IF' the GFS' various fantasies play out, and there's no way we've been +20 yet. That said, it may be hard to get +20 in a June ... climate doesn't really permit that. Otherwise we'd be 95 to 100 far more frequently. So based on climatolgy ... mm, I'd still say this cool snap is deeper negative than the positives we've had - however much so. Just off the top of the head...

It actually splashed mix QPF down into upstate NY too...

Like to see one of those heat signals get to even D6. I think one will .. the eventual/onset -PNA probably does exert to a threshold and the circulation mode across the continent snaps away from that weird meridional flow thing we're observing - but ...it's not clear this would be the breakthrough look.

...it's like the Bubonic Plague of super cells, "the black death outbreak" muah hahahaha

Summer solstice snow as nearby as NF... Granted, it's the Canadian but you know ... I remember the sardonic jest a couple years ago in a post, words to the affect of '...the models won't stop until they succeed at snowing in June,' when extolling the very obvious oddity that's become a leitmotif ... A recurring theme/tendency to attempt to do this below. Meteorological spacing? That's next door.

Aauuh... . This isn't 1994... Day 4 is a little more dependable.

Yeah ..good sleuthing re the NAO "idiosyncrasies" I mean I was really just responding to the poster who mentioned the a spring that's been negative 2/3rds of the time. It doesn't show up in the numerical/EOF derivatives - in fact the opposite. But sure... if the NAO particular details have to work that hard to f'up the numerical signal well shit then - it only underscores my point from 10 years ago that the NAO is vastly over- f'ing rated. Positive numerical curve looks like a block N of Maine? That's a "nested anomaly" that skews the correlation - Yup, we'll see on the speculative -PNA forcing, tho... It's taking a long time to settle the positive mode off, but it is not cross the 0 SD terminator. You know, as an afterthought ... the PNA's correlative weight diminishes during the summer - but that is a distinction based prior to CC attributed seasonal lag of stronger ambient polar jet tendencies. Simple circuitry: strong westerlies --> lingering R-waves ... --> means correlations persist. That simple chain of logic to me means the PNA isn't shut down just yet.

Actually... now that I look at the history over at CPC, re the NAO ... that distinction does not appear to be correct. The NAO has in fact, since March 1, averaged positive. There have been few negative interludes along the way ...but it "looks" in the range of 57 vs 43%, positive vs negative weighting. Which leads me to my on-going contention and consternation regarding this trough incursion that slices along the NE coast that I've been musing about for days - it has/is not really been very well supported by the NAO ... which just spent the last ten or so days decidedly positive and only looks to gradually decline to neutral. That is not a "park deep vortex between Maine and NF" signal, in fact...quite the opposite. We should be stretching the flow and sending ORD heat right to Caribou given this recent history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png ...It seems, despite the fact that the PNA index is supposed to go to correlation sleep this time of year, it's modeled presentation could be more rooted in the non-linearity of wave forcing off the Pacific ..as seen imm below. That's two weeks of solid +PNA... The heat in Chicago and surrounding region of the conus is actually NOT a good fit for where this curve traversed, but it could be why we are also seeing this big rolling buzz-saw carving along southern Canada going forward thru the week. There's conflicts in the mass field forcing. The subtropical ridge signal is clearly attempting to bloom - perhaps ahead of climate/seasonal signal ... While this over active polar jet, which does fit the +PNA, is imposing that anomaly from the top. It's interesting... And then who can ignore the weighty -PNA out there... This is what has me disturbed a little for bigger heat problems. There is vastly more negative soil moisture anomalies over mid latitude conus than the other way around leading, and if the +PNA does collapse and reverse modes that heavy handedly, the erstwhile STR signal becomes unimpeded. We could see constructive interference much bigger ordeal than just a Corn Belt/lower Lakes... Just waiting on the operational model to come around. Lol, they probably will.... Sep 3rd thru the 15th ...then again around Xmas

That MCS apparently split … The models didn’t seem to see that happening, the S aspect having made it all the way S to the Gulf it now has turned back west along the coast down there.

Uh well pulled it off an NWS product fwiw -

Chicago is 100/70 right now ... wow -

Looks like the Euro's not quite as cold aggressive as the GFS cinema during the latter weekend thing... It's also trying to marginal heat surge into the region D8-9-10 ...ways out there and likely to be mangled by future runs, but just thought I'd add. I'll tell you though, Corn Belt/lower Lakes, IN-OH region may see some truly insane heat numbers D6 and particularly 7 in this run. Indianapolis in the area of +27C at 12z 850 mb ...That's before diurnal mixing, next Tuesday. That's easily a 105 look

4th of July last year was of that ilk in chill ( Sunday...) ..heh, not having to go far back to see that it can happen. I think of it as relativity scopes, though, and it may be part of CC ... who knows. But I find it more apt to happen now, then 30 years ago, where we get these freak cold inserts with diametrical air masses west across the continent, while it is happening. I have allll kinds of rhetoric that explores plausibility as to why but... in the interest of popsicle headache and empathy, just go with it... Anyway, it would not shock me in the least if we get that Sunday Monday cool snap, then send the mercury into history the other direction a week later. The dramatic yawing between ends of the spectrum is also consistent with this era, more so than 30 years ago.

wow... obs across N IN and SW lower MI are commonly 88/79 right now...

Yesterday ...about 7 pm, was like euphoric. It was 83 still with a DP of 55, with zephyr breezes by and by. It's difficult to imagine Earth could provide any setting more of nerve-settling splendor than that submersion in a nostrum bath, under a flawless evening sky.

Might be interesting to challenge that motif perception ( I mean it's likely real -) with that Monday maritime plumb. It does seem ( by experience this is true, too) that it will modify off the extreme depth as the time nears, but some guidance were previous flirting with frost ..at least in Maine.. But frost or not, even getting that into the low 40s down here to Worcester definitely is a full diurnal ranged new chilly ball-game. - if so

mmm it's really more precise to consider instability as a T-storm precursor. "Heat" as an advent in and of itself is not really a prerequisite to that. In fact, our "brand of convection" ( for eye-rollin' lack of better phrase -), tends to come from having warm air suppressed SW with a NW fast flow transporting fronts that offer cloud tops rarely exceeding 30K but have more outflow wind. But there are exception and rarities that set up... EMLs sometimes ..aginst all odds, get in here and entangle with triggers. Like Worcester 1953... Or Monson in 2010. Or that weird supercell that move S from Springfield Mass through HFD in '95 with golf ball leaf stripper hail bombs. But these are exceptions to our climate. Big heat tends to actually come with big CIN... You need to set up with a high open sun heat and elevated lows that night, lending to a high launch the next day... and that's actually a stable lapse rate while high hydrostatic heights. Heat can manifest from summer sun...under an unstable lapse rate, and that is fun - but I've actually seen that more common at 75 F with towers by noon. Not from what we consider to be hot. Just sayn'

..Haha Yeah.. it's endemic to this social media/on-line engagement really. It doesn't matter what it is? [seems so] that it doesn't matter what the facet is, if it offers a new observation of any kind, ... perhaps one that conflicts with a narrative that hasn't even yet been spoken ... there seems to be a kind 'nuh uh' thing. haha

I mean ... not sure what the intent of that 'type' of statement, as it serves no qualification or distinction otherwise. We have to look at these things circumstantially in and of themselves. Example, whether it is 1995, or 2012 ...and the heat is being shunted by a NW barrier jet in July, or, it is happening now in June ... doesn't mean less value to the circumstance. all of these - and I am sure there are countless other examples... - seem to suggest there may in fact be a geo-physical limitation in getting that miasmatic type continental heat to get here - save for comparatively shorter/transient stays. I don't give it shit if it's May or September... it may be that when these huge synergistic heat domes balloon, we get curvature of the earth porked. It's worth the question -

Reminds me a little of the 1995 circumstance ... We just couldn't get the models to construct any way to get the heat NE of an ~ BUF-PHL line, during that tremendous anomaly that took place in the Corn Belt and southern Lakes region that July. NW barrier flow at mid levels.. The 1995 occurrence did not feature this sort of very deep N flow fisting due south across Quebec, but the ridge stayed anchored much in the same way. That trough -btw- still quite frankly looks oddly forced. I'm looking at the GEF individual ensemble members, and comparing them to the NAO's numerical forecast from CPC, and there really isn't a clear reason why the trough needs to physically do that - in any guidance Euro to GGEM for that matter. It doesn't fit the classic R-wave synoptic/mechanical behavior very well. With a +NAO in both the numerical curves, and ... the individual members showing negative hgt anomalies within the NAO's domain space, that actually argues for the ridge in the continental midriff to extend NE... Yet, it won't - My best surmise is still what I suspect last week, that the heat itself may be causing a huge constructive interference with the ridge, such that flow needs to physically be forced S around the astern side of it... It's an emergent property/trough more so as a result of that construction, rather than a planetary signal arriving through wave translation. A potential clue to that causality, there really isn't as much of a coherent single S/W carving into the trough ...it's really more region that materializes as a spontaneously nadir. The Euro's just filling it rather than moving it away. Etc... It's a numerical trough off/downstream the big heat dome. Speculative op-ed. Maybe we can't get these big heat waves out there to really transport - or if so...it happens extraordinarily rarely. 1995 failed. 2012 failed... Now this one. that's 30 years and the big dragon heat seems to have all caused the same thing to happen - they instantiate a NW blocking flow that limits the transport of those air masses into the NE. We've had big heat here, obviously. But it may also explain why those bigger examples were always kept comparatively briefer in residency. Interesting. Either way, historically hot June there, forces us to have a temperate one here? The heat may be even worse for DSM-ORD-DTX in a week. This is a "warm-up" heat wave. Heh. Looking beyond at the GFS extended, similar phenomenon then brings life threatening heat to the SW and California... Again, ... -PNA should not lead to +PNAP like it is selling though - so it's not likely correct. This summer's 'playing with fire'

Well... looks like we're going to nail the early call for big heat in the Corn Belt/Lakes, surmised last week. As Adv/Exc headlines cover a considerably large aspect of the contiguous U.S. ( actually..) including those area, perhaps adds some. The trek east doesn't appear ( to me..) as though it is going to happen ( at this point..), however, barring some changes - those could easily occur so not entirely sold ... but leaning away. Fine, one shouldn't actually want 101/71 conditions out side our front doors. What needs to change? It's all centered around the anomalous diving trough. It is noted that the Euro seems to teeter with backing off on that feature's depth and residency - we'll see where that goes. But yesterday I thought there was a chance that trough was partially faux. However, since, the +NAO has begun to conveniently dip in the outlook, after the fact, for 3 days, below 0 SD ... just long enough to perhaps justify that close vortex being there ... cold loading SE Canada/NE regions with October. The thing is, the -NAO blip in there appears to be the depth of the anomaly itself, pulling the EOF's down; there isn't any substantive high hgts/blocking, over-arcing latitudes, to numerically drive that nadir, otherwise. It still could be fake... I just don't like the fact that every guidance and derivative thereof that exists, has it.. LOL. So yeah... ah hell. It is what it is if it is The short is, if the vortex does normalize over the next couple of days of runs, it will expose at least the upper M/A to that mid west miasma, and bring it closer to here. Also, keep in mind...it's not all or nothing either. The trough could verify at half it's magnitude, and only stick around for day .. day and half and/or just evolve into a standard BD scenario. In this less more climate friendly scenario we get hot later on.

And then June'll come in with the 3rd or 2nd all-time hottest June in planetary history no doubt... It's become a leit motif where we're seemingly picked by the global system for cold landfill while the rest of the world parties in warm opulence -ha .. tru tho

Right - so ...either way, more than a half a year - wow

Is the NAM's selling a landphoon here ..