Typhoon Tip

Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank. Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet. But this has been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. Not outright and in total..no. But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because that would circumstantially leave the region in elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings. You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years. I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area. F' heat man... that's awesome. But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding. We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means. Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time. But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F. It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar.

This last day ... day and half of runs fits the 'model persistence' too. I mentioned this in posts over the last month of what's becoming extraordinarily persistent ( really! ), that about ever 3 or 4 days or so, the models try to sell the western ridge progression to toward 90W, toting along the SW/W release, only to replay this same tape over and over again of tamping the synoptic heat right back west in lieu of a bullying in a NW flow over eastern Canada. It's temping to get sold on that... I'm not helping lol. Because I've outlined how/why we can be historic. Maybe should have hammered the definition of rareness that needs to come along with that. But my god... All-time heat for consecutive days for Iowa to N. Texas under a ridge dome nearing 603 dm ... Forget New England's imby for a moment, one would have to be a sociopath not to be concerned, let alone just being in awe for the shear Meteorological significance should that take place. I mean the "core" of the highest results does tend to meander day to day but the general region over 100 (by a considerable margin!) sticks in place for 9 full diurnal maxes straight, with said core exceeding 110F ... With numerous 115?! That's basically a climate event... That is probably the first indirect if not direct empirical example of what climate models have been illustrating: sending future Kansian lat/lon region thru desertification. Bye-bye agricultural belt in however many decades...etc.

That's no where close to the 'mid-range' by convention though That's like in orbit around the extended ...

The 12z GEFs mean for the wtfc range, actually looks east of priors with the 500 mb isohypses anomaly distribution - .... woosh! lol... No, but I mean this:

I think I'm onto the same aspects you might be seeing? ...Not sure I'm ready to bite on WAR obtruding from the E ( if so) like the classic look.. maybe. Problem is, the summer's so far not really behaving wrong wrt to all this higher latitude blocking - it's all fantastically complex, but the faster than normal polar jet and R-wave amplitude ( > than climo for mid summer) is actually a good fit for the easterly phase of the QBO. It flipped signs toward the end of 2021, ...and now it's penetrating through the 30hPa into the 50 as strengthening phase state. That's too bad it wasn't happening on say Nov 15 .. Anyway, that phase isn't really correlated as well with big subtropical ridge arc with a strong annular mode of the AO bottled up N. It's actually correlated to more relaxed AO's with tendencies to blocking and well... that seems to be biasing the summer thus far. All's well. That said, ... mid seasonal/radiative forcing may normalize the gradients ...temporarily/transiently offsetting all that. The idea of a shear axis evolving along ~ 90W with some WAR "could" fit into that/those sort of interlude(s). As that implies I don’t believe it would last… I think that’s why the GFS just keeps reloading Southeast Canada. There’s really less support for rising AAM. The upshot is that it would correlate well to an earlier winter seeing as these phases last for 20 months or whatever so will still be in a pretty strong easterly phase as we plunge through autumn. just poking the hornets nest

Yeah... goes without saying, no guidance is inherently very useful at that range ( D10 to 20 haha) but, I just outlined some observations about the GFS to Weatherwiz, explaining some of it's unique personality in that regard. Also, this nails what we were talking about wrt to the 'false' pattern change - 2 or 3 cycles where the GFS ( sometimes the others included) start hinting or outright throwing out the change, only to have the modeled pattern regress and back-tamp higher heights into the SW again. I almost wonder if this is one of those summers that does this the whole way, then... alas, September 7 -15 there's 'heat wave' under tepid sun.

... trying to avoid that, but sort of. Thing is, it's hard to know the "due" aspect because it's all discovery when the climate is in fact changing. One doesn't know what the end game looks like. It may change into a paradigm where we never get hot, at the expense of other areas of that planet becoming unlivable. etc... it could be that we are in a sense, 'over due,' and we've just been lucky. The purpose is to point out that a scenario like a huge SW expulsion sending magenta mass inject ..timed exquisitely into a 600 dam ridge bomb that happened to be synoptically forced from some other pattern modality... These timed events lend to extraordinary results and are not impossible.

Just to play Devil's advocate for a moment... We have haven't had the "synergistic heat wave" scenario yet during this last two or so decades of 'hockey-stick' CC - those events that have increased in frequency, globally, during these last 20 to 30 years. Particularly the last 15 ... I mean I just called it hockey-stick, but the metaphor of dove-tailing upward may be more apropos. Anyway, we've been above normal disproportionately ..as our contribution to the GW puzzle. But we have not really had that special kind of E.R. casualty with dying cattle in the fields type of ordeal like that which has incinerated parts of France, Australia .. .the Urals, the Pac NW last year... , or relative to climo, that which took place up in Siberia so hotly anomalous as to trigger methane permafrost blow-out cratering. Some hyperbole there for fun .. but one should get my meaning. We've been stuck on the B-theater district, awe-struck by nocturnal low biases. Whoa! That should really send the message of a dire climate crisis home! lol... Brian and I have been talking about this a bit over recent times, that it may be a matter of time before a western/SW heat release times with atmospheric rogue wave event, where the two then super-impose uniquely up in the OV/NE arc. That thing out there in the 06z GFS is, for the record, less likely to occur for the obvious essay of reasons... but, we are quite possibly living with a ticking time bomb where all at once, some event that all-times all records, between Detroit and Boston, like 6 superbowl rings - not likely to be ever "matched" ( dad-pun intended)

I've been railing on about this for 5 years ... LOL But, it's mostly on the cold side that it exhibits this tendency - will explain below how/why I believe it then lends to 'spiking' warmth too much. And...these are characteristics more observable out in time, giving the suggestion that it is time dependent. There appears to be an "accumulation" of colder heights over on the polar side of the ambient westerlies. This causes the base-state gradient to become biased, ...which expresses in fast base-state geopotential wind velocities ( mid and upper levels). Faster velocities directly/physically force R-wave structures; a general principle that immediately connotes the GFS may get a bit exuberant (heh) in setting up R-wave ordering. The other aspect ...sometimes this means more x-coordinate stretching/placement of troughs, that need some 5 or 10 deg of longitude back peddling from 270 hours <-- These big words make it sound almost like a big huge deal, but it's not - it's more like,...just enough to be really annoying. Think of all this above in better terms of 'tendency to do so'/subtle. But, subtle variances in the near terms, "butterfly" out in time? So if the GFS has a 'decimal'-scaled problem with too much height falls, that wouldn't be very noticeable inside of 2 or 3 days...maybe not even 4. But given a substantive passage of time, a cumulative effect becomes more observable. So, if 'wave harmonics' ( destructive vs constructive) emerge different signals as a 2ndary product of all that maelstrom, the GFS tends to give these faux warm up(cool downs) because the superpositioning out in time was fake or baked to begin with.

In 1984 this’d been 76 for a high. CC for the win(loss)

PF, it’s not the first time it’s done this… I’ve been talking about this … about every few days a series of runs tries to sell us this and then right back to back packing West thing. But …in the spirit of bone tossing lol

Transcended utopian weather this day that argues for the existential supremacy of life in NF https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Newfoundland-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://phys.org/news/2022-07-arctic-temperatures-faster-global.html Abstract While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

If one cares to look and study with excruciating attention to detail... just about every CU in the sky may extend a micro-rope from its shred edges into free air. Probably like 'steam dogs' attached to the frilled edge... These can range to slightly bigger. I actually saw one through a pair of binoculars once, and you could see it rotating. ...another look and they've vanished. They are very micro and brief. But there are a kind that are between that that are longer and dangle. We were driving out of Narra beach and encountered the CU line of the seabreeze boundary around Rt 1 ...and there was a rope extending quite a ways at an angle across the highway before us... it was really interesting. They are basically any such rope funnel not associated with an organized cyclonic updraft.. but like a 'fractal rotating' parcel of air that happened to get stretched in general - it will speed up enough to lowering pressure and condensation occurs along the axis, briefly exposing their existence. Then of course there are 'gust nados' and 'land spouts' associated with gust front shear. Dust Devils can actually do EOF1 ...though very rare.

We’re lucky here … lawns and fields still okay

Not to be a douche but that was true 20 years ago ... This? We're in the next higher order dystopia.

couldn't have worked out better for outdoor enthusiasts... Cook-cutter perfect July 4 weekend weather, ..back to work, shits. Although there may be some folks taking the week, granted. Not going to last though. Tomorrow is back to bathing in utopia spoils.. .then we do today on Thrusday, and we'll see for the weekend but it looks temperate and uneventful for now. There are finally signs in the extended, though, that nothing's going to change ... So, all one needs is to be patient - forever - and they'll be fine.

I regret sounding "that way" but, if I were being completely honest with self part of me last night harbored resentful feelings at the very notion of any celebratory traditions that hubris the ole Red White and Blue. Pride is fleeting ... Not sure how any sentient being the fits into any kind of moral taxonomy really could. I don't know. It's no movement to manipulate people with some moral heavy handedness ( i.e. gaslighting') to recognize that, ...killing innocence by means of (constitutional history + moral decay and the loss of community)/2 = civility cancer That cannot in good conscience be celebrated. Engaging in any celebration of pride and national spirit when bullets cause Red blood to flow because of White -rooted supremacy in a Blue tinted moral state of decay ... What the f do "fireworks" mean again?

Remember 10 days ago ... when the operational GFS was so dogmatically too cold in its usual dependable embarrassment, by grappling the White's in 534 dm thicknesses ... ? Prediction: there is a 100% probability that 0% of users in here will remember that/this bias the GFS has this next Nov 10 when it's has a white Thanx Giggedy

I was just reminiscing last year's 4th weekend. wow, right ?

It actually fits my seasonal lag hypothesis/narrative ( not a condescending wink just sayn')

NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked... But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat. Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites. It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness.

I've wondered about the KFIT sensor enough to even be suspicious of it. It's too often in a DP hole like that by huge numbers (relatively) compared to the surrounding obs. But who knows - maybe there is something particular about that site that claims water out of the air -

That's actually not quite the idealized pattern for us ... but I get what your after. Close. We need a +NAO --> -NAO that's biasing the western limb. And the "-->" is important, as in modality more so than the mode. The reason for that is because a ridge in Ontario with a trough down through the TV causes hurricane to move parabolically seaward before getting to our latitude. In order to 'ensure' a track that sends the analog signal, you need heights rising N-/E of NS, such that the deep later steering flow around the eastern trough 'relay's the escaping TC into a continuation along a west oriented path. If one thinks about that... it sort of makes sense that the statistical climate implies it is harder to do so.. because that requires a larger 'machinery of cogs' to operate in sync - it's just going to be harder to realize that in a broader hemispheric-scaled dynamic.