Typhoon Tip

This temporal analysis is correct ... but... I'd like to add that it's not really 132 either - it's sooner than that. It's 132-138 hours until it's having a sensible impact... but the formulation of this thing really predates that by a day. The crucial pieces are already interacting by 120 It's one of those situations where if 120 verifies ...the other stuff has to. There's no synoptic way out -

in its basic sense ... yeah.. fwiw, the Jan - Apr NAO of yesterwhence; I actually like the subtle relaxation in Mar that year ...such that it wasn't overbearing - 1956 -0.22 -1.12 -0.05 -1.06

Well ...just for the record, not trying to start a fight - haha. No but I'm pretty well versed in the generic history of the ENSO, mid last Century to present... I've needed to check it enough that it's just sort of passively in my head. I know that the ENSO was low to moderate NINA for an equally-ish long period of time preceding that March that year. Like 2 or 3 years of it... Seeing as this years ENSO has demonstrated a far better actual coupled state with the larger circulation manifold of the hemisphere, I have a better attitude toward actually using it - haha. seriously though... This: 1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5

It almost does at that...

I can always wait for Piv or TT or something I guess duh.

Did you guys do an actual trend comparison 00z to 12z ( eps)?

Can we get greedy and ask for 10 .. 15% more mid level kinematics in the breaking wave? Then we'd go from 5:1 year return rater to a historical entry. Who's with me!

no kidding ? LOL we're already like Templeton ( Charlotte's Web) ...rollin' around on our sated bellies full of d-dripping model data for the past hour

Yep! Not sure there is a very good analog for this/that. hmm

The operative word ... I didn't like the gradient layout to be honest. Everything else is spot on... it's in the cross-hairs of climatology for biggies in a lot of ways, but... the incidence of the primary not fully filling over upstate NY is creating a 'COL' region in the pressure field, which limits the PGF around the NW arc. In fact, there may not be much wind at all if this solution were to verify, verbatim, out around Orange Mass... But cross that bridge ...I'm likely getting to into the grits for a system that's still likely to change some of that layout in future runs. It does have a tightly wound CCB conveyor ...like a 30 mile wide band of wind from Boston to Providence...

I'm pretty sure 1956 works as a partial analog with the preceding global/long turn indicators... although I don't like using index correlations from mid last Century now, when there are so many coherent changes to the way the circulation modes actually behave ...most likely owing to CC... but let's not go there. Anyway, I'm not sure how that fits into the La Nina warm spring climate model either - hahaha. Jesus

yeah...it's gone almost immediately once the thing gets cranking.. interesting. In fact, it goes from that to having OES enhancing haha

right - 'index scaled' has the benefit to determinism of having a lot of physical momentum in the integration of the hemisphere, that's why big events tend to show up.

This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread - sorry, it does. I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs.... This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there around the climate friendly ( most importantly) cross-hair lat/lon ... NON overly suppressive position. It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV by D5, and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents, despite -

I see OE warm issues over SE Ma ...

technically it's D5.5 really... the formulation of this thing gets going then...and it matures out D6 into 7... but it's safer to move that assessment on the near side of a week. just being fair to synoptics -

i'm noticing the a western ridge presentation is becoming factorable ... more coherent in this run but was hinted at 00z ... I noticed that earlier, but figured it too transient and incidental to mention, but this run made it enough to bring it up

I'd say it's 5 or so % better in obsessive compulsive hand wringing awareness to isohypses structuring ... hahaha... but yeah

so far this Euro run looks very similar to the 12z GGEM thru 120 hrs

DP's are chilly though. lot of 40/21's around. The typical 5/9ths ~ WBs at 32 ish.. heh

GFS has 3 systems actually beyond tomorrow's fun - on this run... There's a sneaky flat/frontal wave/overrunning signal around 2nd that's got a huge diabatic assists with warm March thickness as far N as PA and continue cold loading above that latitude. That thing could be a half foot for CNE anyway in its own rights -

GFS likes the 4th --... that has even more index-scaled appeal than the 28th. Actually, the previous assertion on my part was premature now that look over the 500 mb aspects of these runs. That's more of a needle threading operation aloft, but,...one that appears to have decent antecedent cold like Will was mentioning. So..that helps ( feed-back physics ) in encouraging more S movement.

An interesting aspect of the GGEM is it it never changes things over to rain north of Connecticut and Rhode Island… It may not have fully committed to a Miller B but it is far enough along over the threshold that it really doesn’t matter? That’s what it looks like to me

GGEM has the more prolific just looking at that QPF products.

No you're right... I was and admittedly so, I stated at the beginning that I was intending on giving the model a fair test - I hadn't yet. At the time, some NWS offices began mentioning it in AFDs... I just didn't know; lacked personal experience with that guidance. Honestly, my findings are not that great - mediocre and often just wrong to be blunt. But, having a mode change in a major index field, whilst other models have at one point or the other over the last week ... flagged 28th/1st ... it's more about the 28th/1st than it is the ICON being iconic of pos model