Typhoon Tip

You know it's funny about this ice storm discussion .. I've often thought that the recent rather persistent speed surplus that's observable during these winter hemispheres, as being base-line favoring the icing phenomenon. Doesn't seem to be materializing that way. Or we're playing with it and are 'due' in the sense that we've dodged bullets. But, I also think that those longer duration ice storms ... the 1921 or 1998 ...or some of those in the TV last Century.. those are harder to set up because that velocity bias also tends to moving aspects along - it's harder to lock part of planetary wave space into an static overrunning scenario. Give and take in that sense.. I have seen an increase in those 8 hour icing events from fast moving flat waves - anecdotal.

Just a wild guess .. .but tomorrow looks like a low LCL spin risk to me. We got one of those diffused warm boundary smears passing through during the morning associated with the ejected Lakes trough/low. As that mess egresses through NNE during the day, that places a bit of a SRH anomaly through the region in the 0-3 km. Too bad the sun's weak sauce at this time of year. I haven't looked much beyond the synoptic basis, ... but the 500 and 700 mb streamlines suggest 0-6/bulk is more unidirectional in structure. But that low level looks veered in the typical regions of CT and east of the ORH topography. DPs are modeled into 72 F range - I dunno - SPC has marginal headline out as it is. Looks like jagged scud suck tending to twist to me. Surprised there's no thread - folks are grasping for excitement... nothin' else. Low risk for severe. Primary threat is damaging wind. But with high DP comes the built in notion that green tinting in rain shafts mean ponding in short order, too.

Ha ha! I was referring to the top graph on that site - which is actually an interesting metrical discussion in itself. Frequency of top time series relates ...well, its on the graph. AS for the other, I hadn't had my coffee yet, sue me

I was not referencing HC when I typed that paranthetical - the purpose, I have no shortage of imagination for hypothesis in general. Speaking of wading through humanities ... see how that works, Weatherwiz?

Nah ... the time serious is defined as the minimal TC (bottom) vs those TCs were > 64 kts.

Heh... right - You have to wade through a quagmire of humanities to before even analysis can begin. Everything now is knee-jerk assumed to be some device to leverage one's advantage, as oppose to sensing the virtue of their position. Personal successes may and/or may not be truly a part - but that's the rub.. One cannot presume, even though douchery is everywhere. Lol. Personal note: I think though that La Nina being prequel to the season, and the QBO ... those to leading projected metrics were objectively correlated to activity in the past. I think there is some decent basis for legitimacy re this season's predictive efforts. Easily encourages the notion along that the dearth of activity is related to other factors. I also think that the ACE slump since 2006 ... We should point out that the slump in ACE is surviving as an observation, straight through different QBO, as well as ENSO states. I don't know what these other contributing factors are.. ( I have willingness to off ideas), but in terms of what is proven. But that surviving observation - at minimum - proves the state of the art does not know every aspect that determines TC behavior.

thanks Scott! For the general reader, here are the series definitions: "...The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. " Personal supposition, op/ed: Climate change impact on TC frequency and intensity is a fluid science ... still formulating. There are 'reasonable' posits out there, and papers are emerging. One has to choose to go dig those out and spend the time - one may have to roll up their sleeves and "learn how to learn" the material, as the vernacular and concepts are not necessarily pedestrian. From that same source above ... "In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, although increasing greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming... Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations." I personally lean in the not yet detectable side. There is no way that along these peregrinations of human scientific evolution, our species knows all that is involved in a causal inter-connectivity of a system that is pretty much non-resolvably complex. That's just prequel to even having the discussion. That obviousness dictates there are possibilities out there, merely yet to be objectively determined, that connect the dots between TC behavior and CC. Laughable. We are warming a system where TC are created and life-cycle: Does it really seem very likely those two phenomenon could co-exist in mutual exclusivity? From the same source above, there are hints that are pretty damning: "Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE." Two aspects that offer intrigue/ 'hooks' for science to spawn research, just within that bold text. The first is the 'historic low'. I don't like coincidences in this business, myself. When we are as general practice, in an era of 'never before records' falling like an avalanche, and attribution science routinely (objectively) constraining them to Climate Change, wending the globe to a status of historic low ACE becomes worth the inquest. The other is the reference to "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" That index has been stuck in the negative mode. The paraphrase article found here, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html ...discusses. If Dr. Armineh Barkhordarian's science is correct, we can not both have static -PDO attributed to CC, and PDO correlated to global TC behavior, and then say the TC behavior is not related to CC. Every time I open anything in the press and science community and read the latest and greatest.. .there are implications almost upon every turn of phrase that suggest everything, except no correlation - that is missing every time.

Do you by any chance know how to read this graph ? - I can see the y and x-coordinates, but I'm not sure how to interpret that double curve structure. Where do the top data points come from/mean. Same for the bottom. Obviously ...colorizing the difference between them bears significance, too ... but I figure I'd gather what that significance is if knew what top and bottom are. Maybe some basal state of the Hemisphere, then adding the TC's over top? We can clearly see the two lines move together so there's a relationship -duh

Really rather remarkable comparing it’s 12z run, to the Euro’s, for D9… just about as close to perfectly diametrical as could be physical achieved … and considering the enormous complexity that goes into both’s dynamical engines. It really almost can’t do that - yet … there it is

WPO/ N. Pacific circulation mode is trying to change out there in the secondary. Not sure if that's just seasonality stressing as physically exerting/detectable in the models, or if there's something of a real systemic reordering ( probably some of both) but that smacks as change. interesting... It would take awhile to transmit a signal around the way -

We had Earl and a couple of invests ...now, Earl's escaping and they've washed the basin bare. Nothing in the Basin imminent or invest-able, on September 10 is kinda odd

And at some point between the 15th of October and November 7 ... 55 degrees cooler with snow either in the air or easily air mass supported -

86/63 ... she's baaaack

I remember that event as moving too fast ... It was in an out in 8 hours. Synoptic wave with a ZR sounding around the N cyclonic arc. If I am not remembering that synoptic behavior right, I'm not remembering it right. But, I have seen a lot of those in the past 5 years... where we halted accretion about .1" below warning level, not because of warming but because the event ended. Certainly pretty, with llv pixie dust in the evening street lamps kissing the mood. Good ice storms require a quasi static synoptic set up .. protracted over days even. It would be very unlikely ( like a return rate of 1000::1) to observe the coveted dystopian fantasy of perpetuating 19 F while heavy liquid super cooled droplet water freezes with exceptional phase transition efficiency so high it's hard to measure much loss... fantasy. But ..it's about 'making up for it in the aggregate' - and time being a key factor. Ice storm mayhem enthusiasts should prefer reality, where is more apt to set up 29.8 F with somewhere between (light+moderate)/2 ZR. And the synoptic features are not moving fast. The big ones in history... usually the icing sounding scenario got stuck, "trapped" in the speed of planetary wave contention. Such that the wedging high imposed a steady state low level input of ( very important!) lower wet-bulb air. This latter factor cannot be underscored enough, as latent heat of phase change self destructs in-the-bank cold air to 32.1 There's two critical moving parts. However a region gets it done with the sounding structure ...that's 1. 2 is the ability to sustain it over an extended period. As far as 1 is concerned, ...that gets into local studies surrounding topographic and geographic features that augment in either direction. You're right that around here we have unique circumstance for rather intensely inverted soundings. The mountain orientation leaving a 'void' from D.E.M. to N NJ ( save for the ineffectually tall Watchusett region), 'sucks' the atmosphere back SW - usually this manifest in the 925 mb as a countering jet ...which we've talked about ad nauseam in the past. But that jet gets cranking and can impart -4C air in solid slab to the surface, with +8 at 800 mb...and that's actually too much ...you get micro inefficiencies in accretion due to weirdly warm particles, or you get PLs .. either direction depending on how deep the cold layer is. Point is, "relative" to a regions limitations or advantages, the over arc synoptic theme has to be compensating. I think there is a reason why places like SW over the continent are better ...because they don't have to have special compensating synoptics - they're are closer to an idealized flat surface rendering, while being circumstantially situated near the mean terminus of the wintertime polar boundary.

That -1 (2008) actually ruined that (or saved it depending upon one’s point of view) from being truly extraordinary.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-multiple-climate-escalates-15c-global.html

Well yeah ... ( sorry not in the conversation) but just look at the typical ZR sounding. It's I think I read 3,200? typically.. before the +C's interval Much shallower and the drops have more therms and you start losing - but it also matter how cold the inversion layer is, too..etc. But if the cold layer extends higher, PL start occurring. So any elevation say 2.8K might be in the coldest region of the inversion integral, prior to the temp started to rise much above that - so you're getting glom accretion.

Keeping in mind, expanding HC --> summer circulation mode changes? - that's become more coherent in the last 10 years... It actually began ( empirically ) in the 1990s - I think that's when it was first observed. Personally I noticed the 1998 super nino was like a gateway and things have been interestingly ( increasingly so..) different, almost subtle, ever since. Point being, it's not as detectable 15 years ago as it is now... There are obviously other factors that contribute to a season's total favorable or not favorable basal state. When other aspects may be offsetting ..those become dominant, perhaps then masking a "longer term" HC aspect - I agree with you there. That would be more likely ( intuitively) over a longer sense ... but it's not the only factor. However, if we remove favorable factors and leave the basin open to some sort of stasis that is a weaker HC domain ...it's equally hypothetical ( to me anyway LOL fwiw - ) that a shitty HC circulation eddy is not as conducive. It's a posit - it's fine. Doesn't have to be right. Just assessing some sort of logical circuitry. That's the beginning of science I suppose. Looking around ...I don't see any other reason why the Basin would be so productively low.

It also depends upon one's curriculum counseling.. A good college program might assess a student's progress after Freshman year ...and offer different pathways more suited. If a student isn't pulling their weight in the advancing applied math aspects, they may be exposed to more media-related disciplines. Lyndon State College used to do that. I interviewed to go there back in the late 1980s... A friend a bit younger than I went/graduated from there in the early aughts. ...He started out in media and ended up going more research pre...while other kids opted more communications, with minors in Met.. the idea there to be a TV weather bunny. But ( LOL ) I know three TV Mets, and one has a Bachelor's, the other two have Masters in Meteorology. But I guess that just comes down to the peregrinations of life and how ever opportunities present themselves along the way...blah blah. Up at UML ...back in the 1990s that school had no media prep at all. It was entirely prequel to graduate level. It was intense. The Senior requirement was to derive Navior-Stokes...free hand. We didn't have "math cad" and whatever techy aids Millennials now walk and talk with this pathological entitlement attitude as a result. Lol... ( just kidding Millennials) ... we also started out with 40 some odd Freshman and I think finished with 12 or 15. I never went beyond that. I was not a particularly good student. I also graduated late... like, really late. So finding some grad fit somewhere felt like a culdesac life anyway. Things worked out much better as a forsaken Meteorologist misfit neglect, with an unrealized life passion as a circumstantially stuffed intellect instead ... so yeah waaay better.

I think you were close to nailing it several weeks ago when you mentioned CC ... yup - been thinking so, myself .. for several years. Just waiting for this to happen and now it is - not sure it's just randomness. Hypothesis: With the noted changes in the summer time hemisphere ( circulation totality) (that are attributed to CC -) ... the TC sounding is in trouble. It's not so much the thermodynamics of it - although I suspect it is too being affected - but there is odd shearing mechanics everywhere. It has to do with HC expansion to be blunt. Folks ( directed at the straw man) need to be aware that expansion in the context of HC does not mean a stronger Hadley Cell. The circulation in fact weakens in strength, while conserving total mass transport by spatial increase. This breaks down the strength of the trades below the 500 mb to the sfc... Metaphorically, it 'hole - punches' the interior of the circulation domain space, too. Both circumstances that are hostile to TC genesis due to shearing tendencies. This has ramifications spanning seasons. We head into winters with increased OHE ... and bleed/radiative rates being constant, that sets the table for the following spring and summers to be very warm. It's making sense - CC is like a battery ...and the ocean being a factor of 4 more capacitance of thermal energy than air, the seas are a pretty solid candidate for the "anodes to that battery". But, counter-intuitively, it effects the winters. The Pacific piss-pool up there meandering around the NE Pac(PDO) is now being blamed on CC, and is likely contributing to the -EPO tendencies in winters. It also sharpens baroclinic mean potential along the eastern sides of mid latitude continental regions. That enhances PWAT in adjacent land regions. ... there's a lot of issues with failing to dissipate oceanic heat content, and many of them are protracted aspects... where aggregate/cumulative over time.

Ha! I've observed this phenomenon with that particular guidance as persistent since roughly 2016 ... regardless of season. It began about whence the rapid version upgrades began. As a conceptual extension: I am not sure what the exact performance scales would reveal. It may be a better at hemispheric/continental scopes, ..perhaps "masking" it's error in manufacturing cool nuances - it seems to be uniquely skilled in physically manifesting them out there in time. But it "seems" to me that it has to correct some 20% off it's late mid/extended range features quite a bit - albeit anecdotal. Case in point, these huge SW carving BD troughs the last three cycles over the lower Maritimes, backing down cold frosts into Maine. I do think ( btw ) Maine has a shot at a season's first wide spread frost, anyway ... a week from this morning, but the GFS has been overly bullying too much cold. Another aspect it loves to do is build big continental non-hydrostatic arcs that encompass ORD and BOS, but you look at the sfc evolution ...and it almost invariably has a giant cool high pressure parked over the top of it, such that everyone even inside the ridge has an east flow. I know why it does that...anecdotal or not! It's too strong/weighty with the N-stream as a permanent base-line error. So, it physically ends up with surplus into confluence aspects - it becomes a mass balancing problem so ends up with too much high pressure.

There could be daily crispies for cloud enthusiasts ... late Sunday through late Tuesday. Three days of cyclic convection. Not bad for mid September. Also, week 2 seems slated for some warm anomalies. Tough to hang one's hat on an outlook for warm temperatures after the 15th of the month.. but, the signals been fairly persistent in the ens means. Oper. Euro extrapolates, as does the GFS - no comment on exact magnitude.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-europe-hottest-summer-eu.html

appears that spread's ubiquitous ..up down north south east west all dimensions.

Mmm... damn, you just missed the opportunity there - Instead of NOAAnet launching missiles at ECMWF... etc, it should have "made the technological leap into quantum state controls" - controlling the weather is immediately weaponized ... That'd be cool!