Typhoon Tip

The euro was probably not right… That said I do think that this thing has a lowered potential fwiw

I don't think so, if I were asked at this time and "mood" (admittedly) I dunno... the NAO is gone. Red Herring all along. It may return to those retro white dreams it was along those prior runs, now tossed upon the trash heap of modeled fantasies - a heap that is in my opinion far larger than any modeled NAO success stack. There were/are 2 primary factors driving this late winter, as we turn page into a early spring. - La Nina/-PNA persistent foot print - The happenstance of a cold loading event across the Canadian shield. That latter aspect is really the only thing protecting us from early 'warm bursts' ... perhaps similar to 2017, 2018 ... 2020..etc. Dice rolling on NAO by the physical results of model ( so to speak...) just very recently perhaps added to that, but thinking back on that modeling escapade... It was always perfect. Think about that. A perfect NAO requiring at D7-10 lead. Uuuusually doesn't end very well. I think whatever happens moving forward, don't count on assistance by the NAO. I was just looping the 10 days of the 12z deterministic Euro, and it really has very little NAO blocking sufficiently above neutral 500 mb anomalies to matter, W of Iceland, the whole way. That's hugely different than some of these charts just 4 or so days ago. ... anyway, I guess there is some small consolation in knowing that it can just as easily return and help force matters - the probability goes in both directions. But I hate to roll eyes ... the clock is ticking on this season, perhaps at a faster rate than normal years do to the most persistent and dependable of those two signals above: the ENSO/-PNA In fact, the D10 Euro is almost a warm burst. Not sure how this effects ( if any) the GFS Mar 4 idea. The 12z GEFs have so much weight in favor of a bigger event there ( not just the operational), that all this may be irrelevant for that event. That said, the GEFs 12z mean doesn't have much NAO moving west across the Basin any longer either ( thru D10). It tries beyond but this f'n thing is can-kicking big time. Just stop. We don't even need an NAO in a GEFs/operational GFS scenario. So I guess this afternoon op ed, in the spirit of commiseration ..., has two facets. The first being, the longer term signals are returning to a warm one for the month of March. Without the NAO, and the cold in Canada surely exhausting in time - have to monitor the EPO loading pattern for the first couple of weeks of the month - not sure how there can arouse any other impression. The second aspect regards yet another lesson in overrated NAO. I mean it plays a role and can be a modulator, but it's really still just the Pacific ( transitive wave mechanics - been trying to explain this lately but who wants to think in an environment of fantasy and escape lol) and fact of the matter is, we can do fine without it. We just don't have the footprint hemisphere to do so this go of it.

... all in good fun but still... I don't know if I'm ready to throw "Ralph Phillips" under the bus for a combination of La Nina, global climate change, and denial entirely. Maybe just shove 'im in front and see if he dives out of the way in time

And the beauty is...its crossing through its performance 'event horizon' like right now ... and it sniffs this solution? I'll be in the March thread if anyone needs me -

See ...this is why the Euro model is such an asshole now. First, it takes a hint and blows it out of proportion... and creates this charming sociopathic argument to it's peers to join in, which they do to a greater extent that faithful afternoon. But, now that the great conning narcissist has everyone deceive by guile, it leaves them in a convincing lurch: "Suckerrrrs". What jerk!

I've been warning ... correction vector is pointed toward less. I'm grudgingly accepting the prospect for more, and this is just one run and all that blah blah-blah blah. But, this is still facing certain large scale circulation type challenges... Adding that too this aspect of "model magnification" we've referred to in the past, sort of makes this a smoking gun for a "top 10 bamboozle" event. We'll see

How about just "Taunted"soul and be done with it. lol

except that it's not a Miller B

Mm I suspect the IB front side can burst 2 or 3"/hr for a stint/banding interval, inside a general moderate snow that lasts 6 hours, then it fades into a S-/S with friendly posting triggering mood snows for protracted finish. Probably 6-8" in that, followed by 1-3" over 12 hours or something - just GFS verbatim. It may even have a backside edge that looks like an end near, that temporarily has some trollers trying to recoup on their losses ( which were our gains..), only to have that back side start filling in with level 1 or 2 rad returns - and they just vanish whence that happens. Heh

unfunny

If the EPS comes around on this Mar 4 ...it's our next thread, with a caveat emptor on Mar 2 ... though I have a feeling that may start to yield to this one... we'll see.

Jesus what a QPF monster that Mar 4 event is on this 12z "deterministic" ( heh we hope!) GFS solution is. Looks like 2.5" of sleet followed by 18" of snow from Steve to Ray

00z --> 06z may have started that trend from this particular tool. Offering a little cross-guidance ... unfortunately offers less support, as the EPS seems to be caught between that sneaky Mar 2nd system and this one above... perhaps some noise induced wave destruction

Agree ( not about the use of the ICON lol) the bigger totals than that. I was just musing a response to the other poster seeming to 'grouse' a 3-6 idea

Heh... 3-6" is a fine for my personal druthers. Jesus it's almost March anyway. It's funny this talk of futility that occasionally gets peppered into various contexts ...when the 'seasonal' futility is already happened - Don't forget, winter can fret and fright its hour upon the stage ... the July curtain call is still coming. heh

More than that... It snows probably 5" in 7 hr as a mean distribution away from marine taint ... then another tortured 1-3" over many hours in that run

Muah hahaha... how to create a big chicken salad out of a scenario turning simultaneously into chicken shit...

The ICON is converting this thing into what we just had...only farther S ( axial)... hey, that puts a snow event in the area. It's also got this lasting as mood snows after the IB aspect... it snows for 18 additional hours in S- bursts between that and the N/stream S/W that's racing to catch up.

Bingo! been hammering these two facets since this "top 10 blizzard" thread was decided the appropriate pin version for this event - eh hm...

I can save you some of that consternation by summing up the reason in a simple facet: that's how many ameliorate their own angst. Slightly longer version ... it's a lesson we all learn in adolescence and high school ( most of us that is lol). People impugn others for the guilty reflection of their faults.

That 'not paying attention' phenomenon is also in play wrt to Mar 2, imho. There's something perhaps bigger than a mere 'critter' in there... In fact, the 00z Euro puts almost as much emphasis on that as the 28th system. The 00z GFS, does not to put it nicely. While the GGEM made a big move/nod toward that Euro idea, with a high end Advisory short duration S+. Bottom line, it should be monitored. I warned of this yesterday, to be blunt. Not trying to promote self here, but as I said yesterday - and I am sure 'no one is/was paying attention' hahaha - I have seen this countless times over the decades of modeling life ...where the runs have everyone negotiating their eggs over a storm in a series, probably because at one time it was a big hog out there... But, some middle one ends up being the most important like a 6th seed winning the Stanley Cup. Not saying that is this time, but the phenomenon is applicable to this particular pattern type we are in... fast/progressive higher error/lower performance circumstance. In fact, it probably is applicable to all these damn things. Hell, maybe we could get all three. Yeah, let's do that! Also, the 06z GEFs was interesting for the 4th.

Heh... The wave lengths - in the sense of Rosby loading/logistics around the hemisphere - have not shortened really... What's going on is more related to nuanced aspects in this particular pattern evolution/present era. I get why that idea is offered here, and it's not a bad one ha. It's just about 3 weeks too early, and is also a gradual thing - just sayn' I see winds absolutely roaring at mid levels around a -PNA nadir out west, up and over a S-SE isohypses wall, compressed S by a N/stream that is out of phase and more cold-like over the Canadien shield. We do not have shortened wave lengths out through D10 in these runs...

A comment on the bold, above. The stochastic NAO is the culprit ... More vs less transitive influence by that index's mode tendencies in the runs was/is a very sensitive factor for this. Very subtle variance in the amounts of exertion have backed away, and those ideas of 3 or whatever days ago go with it... When was the last time the NAO bamboozled an outlook - right? This is a moderate event with ( unfortunately ) a correction vector for less. That is the background, whenever transporting a S/W over curved trajectory over a S-SE ridge... into/through a confluence compression. In the simplest sense it's a built in destructive interference factor. This had a higher ceiling as an event, when it had the NAO on its side... one of the few occasions the reputation of that index really has any merit... But pulling that factor back, lowers that ceiling a bit. We can over-come that and get some potency back...but the contributing mechanics are still rotating around S Calif and we may see more of it conserved as it ejects ...

Same 24 ZR/IP

1926 was a coastal as well... This may be the only place on Earth that gets ice storms from nor'easters ... anything to stop it from snowing