Typhoon Tip

It's an interesting run for a few reasons.. at 275 hours, take note of the general synoptic evolution there -wild! 594+ dm hgts pressed against L.I., while a -2SD trough core tunnels through mid province Ontario latitudes. That's nuts... there's oddities if people know to look. It's like we'd need an EOF9 long tracked landphoon from Dayton OH to western NS to atone for that ... How many times does anyone see balanced geostrophic mid level (500 mb) wind velocities at 75Kts along the 588 dm isohypses... See? These are strange aspects that signify a troubled planetary system. Sorry to sound bunnish but jesus christ. But yeah...overall, this was a hot run fore GFS standards, a model that really has a learning disability when it comes to admittance of heights to higher latitudes. ..partially kidding, but it has been the most resistant. The thing is...another under the radar aspect about everything is that we are running above normal since July 1 at most climate sites, yet this is day 1 of the 'above normal' pattern. So like ...what's the difference? Clearly there's some kind of a pattern interpretation vs result disconnect.

Not progged to ... but, who knows The event that happen back in 2019 ... we could see the NAO bounce negative in the index forecast. Much shallower by comparison now, we see a small nadir but it's less than .5 SD. Back in 2019, the heat "dome" meandered to the N Sea then retrograde west at high latitudes... This thing appears to decay/smear toward the N. Urals .

...no, it's fair questions - I think the best way to answer some of that "relative extreme" is to compare it against local climatology - utilizing the Standard Deviation relative to that regions climate scope? That'd be my approach. Relative to Pac NW, their event may be of greater SD than what's going on presently over the B. Isles. It may not...I don't honestly have a scalar clue lol. But that's why we use math tools... blah blah. Intuitively, it seems that it is situation that has to consider the continental/geo-morphological circumstance of each region. Those limitations(advantages) may mean the Pac NW and the 40.2 at Hethrow may take place along similar return rates, but the SD would be greater in the Pac NW... I mean, they have down sloping.. .also, they are closer to a bake source of plasma in that the GB and surrounding cook regions of the west don't have to traverse the Med Sea... lot of conditions to consider.

40.2C = 104.36 ...just sayn'

Folks may roll eyes ( for some reason..) but it is still quite analogous to the SW/W heat release phenomenon that takes place across the N/A mid latitudes. Only in the western Europe paradigm ...rotate the dial 90 degrees. This is/was, as their "big heat" tends to materialize, a N. African heat release. It was pulled through eastern Iberian Pen region/over the western Med Sea, and given to the anomalous split -flow jet configuration ( the N branch of which is buckled around a NW European ridge), it got pulled into that circulation manifold and ...well, bake human bread time. Longer op ed: The issue with this event (...other than the notoriety of this being an all-time historic measure ...) is that this type of heat release/delivery mechanism is a phenomenon that has markedly increased in frequency since 2000 - the UK Met office in/with association to science/research attribution studies have been predicting the 40C benchmark for 2050 - but ...those studies pertained to regularity. Imho, having this one occurrence, however, is telling when grouping it in with the other NW Europe heat assault aggregate since 2000 - again, a rising number of them. It is telling because across the board of all climate prediction metrics, the occurrences of x-y-z extremes are taking place sooner than even recent more advanced climate models have been predicting. So perhaps the operative word is not 'telling,' rather, 'foretelling' ...Like, yeah... just maybe we won't have to wait until 2050 for 'regularity', not just in those stratospheric UK events, but elsewhere on the planet. Humanity won't have wait so long to prove they are a short-sighted asshole species that tragically ...has the intellectual brain trust to see the future being the douchy irony ( I'm in a bad mood... ) For all the fractured beliefs and denials about climate change to finally topple assumptions - usually... that can't happen without duress ... The conversation veers at that point hard into climate-sociological anthropology ( and is a fascinating field, where paleo studies show past climate stressing was a huge player in forcing every aspect of human evolution, from physical nature of race to the diversity of cultures) ... tl;dr. But in the future realm, changes are coming to existential reality because the environment it depends upon is inexorably dire - that means, it will have no choice whether people believe in the science warning them or not... And it won't likey all happen without wars, famine ... standard of living set backs ... Unless some form of Star Trekian tech utopian suddenly arrives off a well-time historic series of breakthroughs ... humanity is still just in a race that is entirely curbed by our responses to the system feed-backs. We are not making the rules of the game just yet.. .we are not Kardashev -worthy. Simple metaphors sometimes are best to clarify when in the weeds, ... but, we are a curiously clever monkey that just found a fully loaded AR-15 with it's safety disengaged.

Who claimed they witnessed 6.67 CG discharges per second …? I don’t believe there are any natural physical processes on Earth capable of creating that kind of electrodynamic power … even if it were physically possible for human eye to parse out what’s going on and when, which is also not possible at ~ 7 bolts/S

Looks like .4" here... Could use about 10X's that -

heh... I don't think the heaviest rain's gotten to you yet lookin' at that thing. Although there may be some shadowing ? I don't know I think this whole ordeal is deeper in the troposphere and you'll get 1.5 hours of harder rain than just .08/hr, by a goodly margin from that look.

Muah hahaha ... everything is going according to plan. The season's highest DPs are flooding the area ...and with zero backside means to scour them out... while then sending +20C 850 mb slab of drag fart, stinking up the sounding, my evil plan to climo the hell out of this week is almost complete -

I'm actually a little less impressed with that, overall. Looked better in yesterday's guidance to me. There's a subtle trend to back off the mechanics/synoptic forcing aspects. Late Wednesday, the trough opens up and rotates up into Ontario/W Quebec... There are height falls still punching east, and given the antecedent air mass, ..it'll be enough most likely. But with that trough behavior some of the jet mechanics escape the area.

Despite the last hour and a half of steady pitter-pattering light rain, we've managed to just nick 80 here, over a DP of 74 ... Rain has stopped now and the sky, despite satellite .. . has that day-glo lamp look and feels warm when turning one's weinershnitzel face toward the heavens seeking god's speed severe weather light... Not sure if this enough to propagate the same instability up into interior N-central Mass and SE NH... but, judging by rad/sat trends.. we're likely at a minimum good for some lawn greening rains. Hopefully...

Heh... didn't even know this thread existed and I've been chirping about aspects related to today's shenanigans all morning over in the other thread.

no shit...? hey folks not-so-cool aside/trivia, London's Luton AP suspended flights because the high heat has apparently damaged the tarmacs. We're supposed to top 90 here tomorrow, and then add 5 for Wednesday ... possibly lingering into Thursday to register our first pan-wide heat wave. There's a little known telecon that correlates western Europe with eastern N/A ... which seems to bear out this week. Interesting.

Re the flood threat... meh, I spoke about it yesterday but one of my assumptions isn't panning out too well. Cell movement velocities ... too fast. Yes, where these 50 DBZ strafe over the air'll turn blue-gray choking water board intensity but these this activities is haulin' ass.

Day dreams ftw - Nice TCU build up over NW NJ in that 'seam' where the denser overcast opened up like we envisioned. That's probably going to cut loose in there. That'll then propagate down stream this afternoon as heavy rain - I suspect. It's 78/72 here with pittering rain and urine puddles ... gross. The sky has that day-glo brightness to it, so it's allow some modest insolation to the ground.

Under the radar kind of oddity to this day... as it then moves into Tuesday thru Thurs... Firstly, we have the first pan-dimensional heat wave likely occurring spanning these next three days - we haven't focused on that earth shattering tear-shedding inspirational natural specter (I know... heh). But yeah. One day of which may be 'big heat' threshold. Not bad for an overall +PNAP flow structure across the continent... But ... the under the rad-ism is, how often do we have any semblance of a severe threat, however presently fleeting that appears to be..., and then go INTO a heat wave from that circumstance, around our region of the country? That's rare for us. We get our severe by heat obliteration events - or almost always have. It really woulda been cool to see someone get the severe and then sore to 92/72 tomorrow. That'd be some mock-Dallas antics there...

Yeah ... I posted too long of a read an hour or so ago - I tend to agree with asking the question. I "think" what may happen just looking at the sat and then day-dreaming ... there may be some eruption of activity over N-PA over to SE NY later this afternoon, as there is an axis of thinning sky cast creeping up to that region associated with diffused warm boundary passage. "If" so...that activity would then smear ENE across the area as decaying rains ... but falling through a PWAT anomaly that may help rain rates.. But as far as severe... heh. I don't think this has the mechanical/synoptic forcing necessary to do much without CAPE - also a hypothesis being tested

NAM numbers... 12z Hottest day of the year falls on climatology - that's a bad luck omen for winter! (No, I'm kidding - but that outta get the panicky winter-event codependents sniffing their armpits for comfort...) But these 12z numbers for Wednesday July 20 are impressive! 850 mb temperatures over LGA to Logan are +19 .. +20C. The T1 at Logan at 18z is 32C at roughly 300 feet( 980 mb). The slope temp probably LIM--> around 34C (93 F) This could have been 34 --> 36C for nastier high of 96F (rounding notwithstanding), but ...the 700 mb RH values are between 65 and 72%, which by convention assumes partly cloudy. I suspect that is the limiting factor. The 12z Wednesday morning hydrostats are roughly 574 dm in the area, but they surge to 578 ( almost 580!!) by 00z. That means that the model is calculating heat input into the system, particularly because there isn't appreciable +d(dp). So the expansion of the thickness came most likely from diurnal heating. Take increase(decrease) cloud coverage and the temp probably adjusts - which is intuitive anyway..ha. Anyway, these numbers in the region suggest 95, which is the 'unofficial' big heat threshold. But,... the real impact of which ...the DPs in the area are 70+ ...so we'll likely need headlines in the area posted if these NAM numbers get more ..support/confident. I should note, the 00z Euro was also 94-96F across all of interior eastern Mass ...down to NJ.. so, yeah...it's not alone on Wednesday's climo crowing.

This more than less echoes what Ryan and I were mentioning yesterday... ...Northeastern CONUS... Scattered thunderstorms should form from midday through early afternoon over western/northern parts of the outlook area and spread eastward/northeastward, offering scattered damaging winds, with at least a few 50+ kt/severe gusts possible. A few tornadoes also may occur, especially over northern parts of the outlook area in the eastern NY/western New England region. A seasonally strong superposition of rich low-level moisture with increasing large-scale ascent and favorable deep shear (ahead of the ejecting northern trough segment aloft) will support convective organization across the region. At the time, I was thinking more short duration huge rain rates.. but, yeah.. I'm not liking satellite trends though... I was thinking there was some chance we'd end up even 15 or so % less ceiling and allowing insolation through, but the recent/morning trends are slammed shut. Not sure this system has enough of those mechanics to do much other than heavy rain, without more instability/sfc to mid lvl lapsing. The activity along the S coast appears associated with diffused warm boundary... and there is a climo precedence for morning w-frontal smudge, then lull, then ? Day's are long... the southern edge of the miasma is thinning N ( perhaps more so then moving N) over N NJ ...Long Island, so we could end up with dim sun marginal help mid afternoon just by 'gunkology' Not to discredit the efforts of the forecaster.. but he's on to mentioning, "..outflow/differential-heating boundaries..", whereas for now, the d(insolation) is pretty close to 0 from ALB to TAN across the area.

There's been minor fluctuations in the modeling over the last several days as it pertains to this event, but by and large ...a robust continuity, nonetheless. That lends to confidence for a couple top rank hot days. Last Thursday .. the ECMWF was perhaps .5C hotter 'edging' this event. Over the weekend ..typical model noise may have 'dulled' slightly slightly... It's still within error acceptability - the UK office put out 38C for the highest at some point during ... when the previous (Thur last week) was 40C aoa the 80th percentile confidence etc... Model noise. What's interesting is that the GFS model is actually the hotter of the two guidance. If that 2-m were to verify, this whole discussion is moot. Everyone breaks records south of ~ the 53 parallel over the vaster area of the E and S of Isles. Yet, while London and the B. Isles region in general are capturing story headlines ( probably due to association oddity/psychology), the real 'danger' is in N. France. Those poor f's. Talkin' 42C (108F when rounding..) over multiple points in the graphical hover/pt&click. Not to over-sell that. The heat event in the Pacific NW resulted similar or even > results... I don't know what their records are in the N of France.... but that's also along the 48th to 50th where that event took place in the Pac NW, fwiw -

It does look like it’s trying to bias W-N yeah Tues/Tues night are getting uniquely brutal looking in the NAM’s very recent numbers. Like 91/75 prior to full mixing midday Tues … possibly to 93/68 … 78 out at Logan at 5 am for the low and likely 81 much of Tues night.

I'm surprised it hasn't happen sooner with the blocky summer ... But then again, the AO has been positive, despite the tendency for blocking nodes in the Ferrel latitudes. Been a bizarre split hemisphere like that.. .with concurrent diametric mass fields - and it's hard to argue stability in maintaining that when it's been going on for 6 weeks. interesting

Yeah...it appears as the mid range came into this nearer/short term the heat's eased some. As far as records.. 38.7C vs 38C can come down to waft perturbations near the thermometer housing. Probably not 40.. I don't follow the dailies with model performance over western Europe... My experience with doing so over the N/A continent is that all models tend to have an amplitude bias in the late mid range that corrects toward less crossing over the D4 .. 5 range. I'm sure they have godly experienced forecasters in the UK Met office doing analysis - they know. But I wonder what nicked this since Thursday when the news broke that it looked historic at first. It may still be ...not saying it won't. 38 is certainly notable even if it falls short. But 104 over the cobblestone streets of London would've been amazing.