Typhoon Tip

heh..yeah.. no argument for Nebraska. But, it did get up to 110+ in Oklahoma and N TX during the verification window. That's not hugely far from Nebraska. interesting - ...I don't know what the geographical or spatial actually margin for error should or shouldn't be acceptable at D10 lol. I don't know...but I'm inclined to give at least a nod. Do I think BDL is about to clock 7 straight days of 100 topping at 109? no - I'm equally inclined to at least subtly shake the head on that one.

haha... Heat? In New England, straight through October - That's never happened because Earth can't do that here. Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics. We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.

It feeds back ... yup. I mean, that ridge projection would be capable of loading 97/76 ... basically, lower Corn Belt hell anyway, but ... the antecedent summer environment this year has put us in a situation of limited returning soil moisture. It likely has penetrated deep enough ( check hydrologists ) that flora, floor to canopy species, are all stemming ( no pun intended) the amount of moisture making it to evaporation (evapotran -). For eastern N/A ..there's two sources for DP: land and it's activity; or curvilinear flow loading off the Gulf and/or adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. This type of synopsis out there doesn't have those latter sources. That leaves the land-air interface which oops.. entering that time frame is as such, challenged. So... now we have a ridge that has the scaffolding for some really giant numbers, with low DPs ( relative to climo)... Bingo, the model has no physical hope but to allow the T side to pretty much rise to the full insolation potential. I think a warmer than normal period ( above the CC + climate baseline...) is growing in likelihood. The CPC NAO and PNA are converging fantastically actually... The signals are less useful, at this time of year, more typically.. But, when they are in constructive interference with other trend and climate modes, and ... mm that changes the map a little. I wouldn't suggest 7 days of 100+ temperatures, on D7-13 chart, has any more merit than a 30" snow storm on a D11 chart would in winter. But, we do need to keep in mind, there are times when big scenarios start showing up at extended leads, and they do so because the governing dynamics are overwhelming the typical/'noisy' offsetting events out in time. Sandy did that. So did the heat wave recently in western Europe. ...etc..etc..

It's a situation where it did not help to have unimpressive lapse rates. Marginal instability means ... you don't have room to f around with clouds and light rain spritzing through 3pm... that's A. B, falling heights means d(t)/dz is occurring, and that's your offset instability if/when these other parameters might be getting punked by covnective residue. Almost irrelevent hgt falls --> less d(t)/dz --> not getting the help. I saw that band, calculated it's residence timing to be 8 am through 2pm, and pulled the curtains. No sense or feeling of being boned - it wasn't going to happen, when then adding the fact that the 582 dm contour moved like 30 miles during the course of the afternoon. As a preview, I suspect Friday we have the same aspects to contend with... although, the trough appears a little more differential aloft, so it may not be an ideal analog either.

Mm... not quite. The day was marginally unstable, with a good shear mechanics. Noormally, that's a good - not great ... - but good combination. But, not when it is cloudy for the first 2/3rds of the high sun hours. It was not enough, not in time. Yeah, it cleared ...but it's not black or white - as in, 'cleared' or 'did not cleared' It wasn't enough... There's also some noise that got in the way too... I noticed that a modest/ill-defined prefrontal trough situated along and E of the Berks over western zones, ...roughly around the time that clearing began to take place. That backed the wind more west and seeya' later DPs... That started the pseudo dry-line evac. That's not an uncommon feature with those W-E orient summer fropas around here. Typical to see the DPs crash ahead of the cold front, with line(s) of premature ethunderulation along with it. It wasn't hugely obvious that was taking place, but it smacked somewhat of having that tendency at the same time it cleared. My temp bounced from 81 to 87 when it cleared, but the DP corrected from 74 to 64 and we had zero CU when that happened. Then, the cfront limped through with a line of transparent sunset CB and that's the ball game.

Lol at 75 at the end of that string of days... brrr!

Btw, in memory of Mish Michaels, who we tragically lost earlier this spring, there is an effort in memoriam, "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being constructed at the Blue Hill Observatory. I brought this to the attention of the board via the banter thread, as there is a fundraising effort in association with the cause. Details are contained there if anyone wants to drop by and consider, or just take a look. Secondly, deadly heat wave on the 12z GFS ... "weather" the 850 mb or the sfc 2-meter lag behind the 500 mb non-hydrostatic evolution, as they typically do at this range ( D9 - 13), thus shirking the front 2 days of possible big heat ..., aside, ...closing a 600 dm ridge node over eastern Ohio with zero large scale mechanics for delivery here, would like rival anything that has happened in history should that really evolve that way.. Anyone can go see it but here ... That would be taking 101 type DTX heat and moving parabolically "over-top" and down on a WNW "d-sploping population demographic" ( lol ) if that happens...

This past March, with the untimely passing of Mish Michaels, our meteorological community lost a very special and talented contributor to our field. Mish' was a great colleague and friend. I had the opportunity to work closely with her during my Meteorology internship at WHDH, as well as during her contributions and brief professorial tenure at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, during the mid 1990s. Mish was an extremely giving person, full of positive energy and optimism for our field, embracing any opportunity to be the teacher, or just sharing vivid anecdotes over dramatic events. She touched so many of our lives, and she should never be forgotten. Enclosed please take a moment to learn more about a fundraising effort for "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being designed and built at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. Any contribution you would like to make will be most appreciated. In addition to her celebrity as a broadcast Meteorologist, and her times engaging with Universities, Mish was involved with the Observatory for many years as a board member and volunteer educator. She actively engaged and encouraged thousands of young minds to pursue careers in the sciences. Contributors giving $200 or more will be invited to a festive, early evening event on August 10th at Trillium Brewing Co in Canton, MA. Meteorologists, Tim Kelley, and Harvey Leonard I will be speaking. And all contributors will be invited to a special and private ceremony when "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" is completed in early 2023. Blue Hill Observatory's Youtube Page https://youtu.be/hepGUZ-j1Sk Donation Page https://blue-hill-observatory-science-center.square.site/ Please be kind enough to share this with everyone you know who would want to honor and remember Mish. The forward would like to thank you, so much.

We'll probably have a stretch of temperatures similar to what we just had, even though the teleconnectors look far and a way more robustly ominous for an actual heat signal - it's like that...

Probably. Kind of a zonal flow through early next week with that closed low rollin by on the polar side. Should send a boundary or two side swiping thru. Massive heat loaded ridge in these recent GFS runs next week. Where? Too far west or far enough east. Meanwhile the Euro fights it’s own ens but where the GFS is probably the mandatory 10% too amped the Euro’ll likely bloat some eventually. I think it’s real … a hot early August. MDR may come to life around then.

Tomorrow is back to that 85/51 stuff. Brief tho. NAM already has 70 dps thru CT by 12z Thur

Dude … there were essentially none. Lol

There were very little height falls... reflected in the 582 dm barely budging through the day. Not sure that associated to that, mid level lapse rates were all that great at any point. I suspect SPC's issue with today was similar to last week - in that there were tantalizing DPs initially ( although last week it was an advection/ delta issue ), and interesting shear kinematic working over the area. Same today ... both circumstances lacked lapse rates but for whatever reason - blame luck - we did not trigger today as proficiently. PR-wise: they were compelled some I suspect because they feel just as badly about kids dying under felled trees, and since last weeks tragedy and the set up is/was some 60 .. 70% analog, they were two-fold definitely pulling the trigger.

there's a snarky comic angle to this day... It's 87/73 here where I am - although a brief sprinkle just passed with one distant rumble so it may be 82 or something... anyway, it's 90/73 in Boston. 90/73 ... --> do we have enough ?? what's wrong with this picture? most sites were all at minimum mid 80s min/70+ DP, at some point late morning... Tell me we are not caught up in a warming world when T/TD combo like that have to negotiate a way to nuke the mid levels.

hence the use of the term, '...anyway' as in, all things considered - we're not appreciably different than what transpired last week... But so far, last week outperformed this, by the way - least we had SC's straifing the region. We have better 0-3km mechanics... - yup. I give you that. We have a rapid pealing off the clearning that's probably going to mean more for Mass than CT, but yeah... That stuff is true. But last week there was a resulting convective wall down of LI just like now, and in both occurrence, ...there was sun robbing. It's comparable. It's not liked or wanted - but it is comparable. We'll see what the clearing does for us... It did also clear before too late last week, so even that bears resemblance. I'm also a little personally biased because my internal monologue has thought all weekend that today looked similar to last week, and then here we are with these next of kin observations bearing similarities... so tfwiw -

This is reminding me of last week anyway... Right down the convective wall lining up down the N shores of L.I. ...robbing everywhere N of there sun by way of farting their anvils down wind in a hyper velocity mid level flow that can only be explained by CC ... f us

Yeah..I'm sure it was modeled - no problem there. Good job models ..I guess. It's still unusual - I can see in that product how that was drying issue sort of east of the Berks and Whites. hmm. I just wonder if we have local antecedent conditioning lending to some of that. Thing is, dps always go down during diurnal heating/mixing but the amount is what interests me. heh...whichever 98/62 was never in contention in my mind.

I agree with Brian that in the stricter fairness, 63 DP is taking the "edge" off what could be extraordinary ... But, my personal experience in dealing with yesterday and the day before was that it wasn't much of a reach-around relief, either. I'm certainly glad the DP mixed out/down to the low 60s both days - but both conditions can be true. It can be both not as bad as it could have been, but also , ...really f'ing bad man! Having said all that... I'm just curious if there's some bit of "desiccation feedback" ... I've read before that antecedent arid soil conditioning can absorb DP right out of the air... We may be refitting DPs/theta-e in shallow decoupled layers because the rates go negative briefly overnight, but when the sun hammers the landscape and heats the surfaces ... (maybe - I'm just suggesting/wondering here), together with expansion thermodynamics it's eating out the water in both directions. I feel pretty confident that 74 DP going to 58 to 63 is a little on the unusual side.

Nah... once per diem during transitioning fronts is the NE allotment ... you're all done.

heh I dunno - This looks like an EF4 1::1000 year tornado outbreak event in the absence of this dumpster overcast, in which case, it is a very common local climate case scenario of epic waste of a 1::1000 year event ... .

You know... there really is massive heat signal emerging out of the blurry range of the summer teleconnector spread, for early August. The PNA's correlative significance is considerably less useful in summer compared to winter climatology. That is probably even more so true during CC, suppositionally based upon recent decadal experience, alone - but there's also turn of phrase around the papering realms. However, there are some circumstances where/whence the prognostic numbers may bear more signficance... and it comes from combining disparate sources whereby quasi -suggestion via constructively interference. The PNA is ominously signalling a huge phase change, which alone ...may not be as useful, but the NAO is also indicating a very large change - it's basically teleconnector convergence that points toward central to eastern N/A positive geopotentia anomalies. I find it interesting that we've been bleeding signficant 850 mb thermal anomalies up to ORD-BOS latitudes, when erstwhile this summer season...these above indicator were never very much in favor of doing so. So what happens when/"IF" this spread validates a real forcing ?? Note, looking backward along these histories below, the last time the PNA fell for 10 days while the NAO was rising(risen), was during the ridge eruption over the OV back in May. The only issue then is that there was sans a western heat/mass release into the circulation. ...so moving parts notwithstanding. Other more intangible aspects lend to the idea but tl;dr factor is growing here.

This is a solid observation ... It's been triggering me to ask if that amount of D(DP) across the diurnals, has been anomalous? I'm not sure if that's a metric that's really kept track of. We all know, Mets to enthusiasts, that we're shedding DP numbers usually nearing the highest mixing point/BL expansion. Normally per my farmer-John's-Meteorological anecdotal experience, that's in the neighborhood of 5-7 F... It's like you come out of the gates on a hot one souring to 86/74 and that's kind of your highest HI of the day around bout 10:34 am ( heh..).. Then, at 1:48, it's 94/68...kind of stationary HI more or less. 96/66 is the ping max. But lately I've also been seeing 82/74 at 8am go to 97/57s - I'm not sure if that entirely normal - like we're exceeding the typical delta(DP).

All I know - personally - is that I just spent two days having to be all over eastern interior Mass for lingering DITF stuff of my own/ceremonial shit, and both days were above 95 ..in fact, closer to 100, and it was an evolutionary hot experience... As in, physiological survival mode triggered balls down by the knees protecting sperm count miserable out there. There was a ceremonial thing at Wingaersheek Beach with 99 F land breeze pushing surface waters to England so that the 'soothing' up welled Labradorian glacial piss made the water ankle aching cold. You basically are f'ed for anything fun in that setting... But it wasn't really that bad ...no, because the DP was 64 - really ?

Seeing as we can and have in many instances in that past, registered 93/65+ combinations of ambient temperature, ... mid 90s/65 smacks like a "both conditions/arguments are true" sort of wash. Just calculate the HI for either circumstance... then delta the results. If it is within a degree in either direction, both are true and the whole discussion is mute when taking a subjectively fair approach based upon objective understanding of limitations, and local studies variance/outliers. But ...I guess that wouldn't satisfy the need for petty vitriol so - yeah...we'd suffer some loss there