Typhoon Tip

Looks like the 18z Euro took those odd looking giant Friday max Ts down some.

You’re not getting a hurricane this year stop it!

That may be your local sea breeze? SSTs at station 44005 are in the low 70 NNE if Cape Ann … also at the other buoy near by. Wind flipped onshore and I’m wondering if that drafted in dewy BL

Those Fri/Sat numbers along this eastern end of rt 2 in N. Mass are quite suspect - It may take place.. I'm not heavy handling you here lol. no but the problem is, it's got a tiny geographical area immersed in near or at historic heat, and typically, ..those kind of numbers require a larger/regional synoptic support. Friday at 18z the Euro surrounds this eastern MA region with a rampart of intense thunder storm activity, ...where's the outflow going? I mean, that too. Yeah, it's inside of D4 and the Euro's pretty darn good in that range. It's also had these intense heat island looks for two days - persistence. It'll be a neat event if that verifies like that, though. As far as the latter days.. yeah, it's becoming perhaps apparent the GFS was selling it's tendency to go out and kill heat - we'll see. It may take a few days to break this down. The Euro refuses to back off the WAR ridge retrograding W, that's more been there than not.

for some reason it feels hot to me today. 89/63 here as the average among home stations within a mile or two, which as you suggest, isn't the worst it could be exactly, but you know... I think it is the shear power of that pure unadulterated sun. That may be the purest blue possible at this end of a any continent in a CC era - haha. It really is instantly searing sun walking out there. Almost like the ambient light is so intense it is warming, not just the direct rays. Yet the air T is 88 I wonder if there's something to that.

00z MAV/MOS keeps Friday and Saturday just under 90 along the BDL-FIT-ASH-BED arc, with DPs 69 to 71. We'll see if the 12z edges up ... The 2-meter product at Pivotal is significantly hotter on those two afternoons.. 21z soaring to 95-98 hovering that product ( I love that thing by the way...) That seems like a huge disparity between the interpolation versus the raw model output ( MOS vs 2-meter graphics) - I wonder why-for? My sci fi writer wants to presuppose that the climate change is mucking with the interpolations, because they have a climate bias built into them. Don't they Brian? I thought I did - I now they used to back in the day but I've not kept up with Bulletin products - the display/accessibility NCEP is providing is much much improved, however. Lol - Anyway, 89 at BED and the hover product pings that at 97 is large. I wonder if in the past there's a few BDs or convection/cloud in the generalize warm frontal histories that are weighting the MOS numbers down.

Specifically ... quote a turn of phrase that was less than clear, and I will rephrase gladly. I'm a lousy writer.

I wonder if tomorrow and Friday are the worst aggregate "HI" of the summer - the period. Looks like 96/74 at NWS sites, and 96/77 at home Davis', for HI's in the 105 range, both days ...for real this time. None of this DP vanishing act this time - or less of it. And the lows tomorrow night? ooph 2-meter T layout looks too tepid with the NAM. But I'm not completely sold on the Euro's 98 to 100 from ALB-down the Mohawk Trail to BED... It's doing that because it has less DP... Hmm, it fits the season's dry motif though. I dunno - not a NAM DP handling specialist, so who knows - If the NAM wins DP and the compromise in temperature ...that's 96/73 sack sticker irritability heat... and would be the summer's HI acme.

LOL... but in a more useful, and fair representation of my "musings," precipitation is but a mouse in a stampede of pachyderm observations related to and/or likely being effect by CC. The elaborations I've written, that are either too difficult to understand ( blame the writer..fine!), or too inconvenient for others, is that the ENSO is tending to decouple from the seasonal atmospheres (summer and winter) with increasing frequency ...particularly spanning the last 15 years or so. More extended periods of intra seasonal pattern break-downs, where the modes stop "obeying" the statistical inference, are being observed. At other times, it seems to overly constructively interfere so vastly that this "clicks the gear" into the next registry, which displaces warm(cool) correlative regions down(upstream) - those that are at continental scales. This is screwing up teleconnector aspects ... this is a Pandora box. Either gives the allusion of decoupling or not - which is which? Point being, the ENSO reliance of 1995 doesn't apply the same way. We cannot logically, look at 1900 through 19 ... 90 and linearly predict outcomes. And that is before adding in that the ENSO doesn't operate alone - this is before that. If it helps ... it is documented in accredited circles, from private University sciences, to the IPCC reports. It is not merely 'conjecture' The stuff about the Hadley Cell expansion may or may not be physically ( as in ..wildly evolved mathematical physical equations and shit..) proven related - but I don't see how that can't be considered without adopting the admirable neolithic incompetence approach. It very well could be playing a crucial role in driving some or much of the above - and I personally believe it does. But, folks can disavow or accept or ignore whatever they will. But, to me, when the HC expands - as it has been noted in above publication sources - it does tend to weaken. That's important. The nature of the expansion - folks tend to mistake spatial growth with increasing power.. .and that's not right. Among aspect of the expansion, causing a weakening of the easterly trade mass-balancing flow; causing inner HC domain breakdowns resulting in eddy circulations; etc... it separates(disconnects) the ENSO sea-air coupled domain from the westerlies by virtue of spatial distance. Ahh..that could be a great place to start in investigating the aberrant circulation behavior...etc. Quick and dirty 'abstract' on that posit: These are aspects of the circulation mode that then necessarily would have to effect the ability for Kelvin wave distribution, propagation therein, wind and trade-flux related sea-surface stressing ... all which feed back on any tropical/subtropical phenomenon's ability to interact and influence the behavior of the westerlies ( through dispersion mechanics along the HC polarward boundaries).

But in order to take advantage of the sun, June or early/mid July being the operative period of time... It's a tl;dr posit of mine, but I believe these summers since the aughts of 2000, have been increasingly suffering "seasonal lag" - which is represented in an overactive mid level jets/westerly streams, claiming longer than the previous climate mode ( yup ... CC -related) would infer they should. By June, the R-wave's should be less constructive/coherent - this year it looked like February on the polar-stereographic 500 mb non-hydrostatic hemisphere... in fact, vestiges of that into July. I've seen this across multiple summers since 2010. But it alters the early to mid summer pattern behaviors. In one such way, reducing the length of time a region really can spend in pattern biases ... We're losing the 'stagnation factor'. Like, hot patterns collapse quickly... Cold ones role out and/or moderate almost while they are windy, and destroy MOS machine numbers, busting them too cold. etc.. Model supposition: As an emergence of all that ... it has a way of sort of protecting mid latitudes from the highest sun/solar insolation time of the year, because it's thus less likely to come into a constructive interference with any ridge, like that above, that ultimately can't really make it through the model gauntlet. Thus, they ( the models) detect these big ridge nodes as physically plausible ( so to speak), but they don't tell you that it is less likely to survive the unknowable future perturbation(s) of the overactive summer jet. The Pac NW last year/June, is/was an example of succeeding in overcoming... Which was as much an homage to the rarity in doing so. As hot as as it has perceived to have been in areas of the country, we've left some on the table. As far as I can recall/tell, we still did not have/observe the "synergistic" heat wave this season. Certainly not around here. But in fairness to practicality and realism... we're not likely to see a 300+ hour anything from any model source do much better than a blind man at the World Series of Darts without figuring out how to manipulate the quantum fabric of the continuum ..i.e., just control the weather - as a complete and utter failure of the tl;dr initiative ... that's probably more apt to be realized before model visions of that kind of extended outlook ever get very probablistically useful. We're wasting carbon footprint by running the crays out that far...

See … A, we can’t seem to ever get something like this to actually take place - even though we are frequently hinted that it’s possible B, it won’t seem to happen at the end of June - August 10 exits the solar max and we enter the solar transition season. So whatever maxes that could ever yield .. you lose some to seasonality. Ah well … may as well get that sort of thing going early sos folks be psycho babble prepared for winter…

Mm... not sure about that. To each his own opinion - teams can get hot, and timing is everything therein. The brilliant one's? They engineer their streaks. Not saying they'll succeed here - and in fact, ...I don't argue as of this moment, your more likely right about the 'not good enough.' But that may not be the case 1 month from now, given these moves and the expectation of getting talent back on O and D ... Their engineering. We'll see. It's not black or white with what, 60 games in hand.

This is an oddity to look at ... here, the 12z Euro for Friday, 18z... You have 100's over interior eastern Mass vying for hottest spanning the continent at that hour, and it's so tiny and nucleated inside a weak low attempting to close off on the stalled front... ? Meanwhile, training bangers with probably, water boarding rain rates aligning from Pittsfield MA to Keene NH -CON, where it is 75 in southern VT. I would love to see all that set up that way.

heh.. . the guy's an aging FB talent ...probably more utility at this point, but that is vastly better than the 'hole' they have at that corner of the diamond up to this point. It's a plug, but it might work. Let's get Devers back please? I feel like some of these moves are a psycho-babble clean-up effort in the club house - but that's purely speculation. It just doesn't seem like an accident that they looked so composed and focused last night against a 67-39 Houston, and won. All the sudden Nathan's like Kofax through 7 innings, and they have an effective bullpen 8th and 9th out of nowhere... Things can come together. All they need is a couple 7 game win streaks - not as tall an order as that sounds ... - then, just play 600 down the stretch. With this season's competition climate, they'll turn it into a relative success. Not saying they're winnin' the ALCS here.. but teams sometimes some how some way just get hot.

Fwiw • The MJO signal weakened through mid-July due to destructive interference with the La Niña base state. • Dynamical model RMM forecasts a continued weak MJO signal in the coming two weeks, and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether convective activity will continue to propagate eastward in the coming weeks. • The Atlantic basin continues to be quiet with regard to tropical cyclone (TC) development, while the East Pacific continues to be active, possibly due to Rossby wave activity enhancing convection.

Not entirely sold... There are two possibilities for Friday - one produces local near headline rain results, the other is more scattered... That day could turn out ripely set up for repeater downpours after a morning temperature burst ...set up by the previous big heat Thursday. The day is unilaterally modeled to fester DPs to nearly 75, with high initial surface temperatures .. Sun will be important. IF so, there's a front paralleling the mid level stream lines ...pressing S and stalling in that on-going heat/DP morass. It could train CBs along fractal designated routes - who knows where that would be. The 2-m products are banging 97 between HFD and ASH axis, but I think that's over done... What are the convection temperatures? That's one school... The other school is that the front is over manifested in the guidance...so less S and the axis ends up farther N and weaker at that... As a separate sort of plague, we could still run into a neggie feedback due to antecedent dry summer 'sucking' the moisture back out of the column - we've seen something like this on a couple of occasions already...where 70 DPs at dawn vanished in waving trees blown through by arid hot wind. I think it was all the way down to 58 on hot Sunday July 24 when Logan was 100 as was metro west. This would have to correct pretty fast in the guidance though, as we are at D4 and they agree - it's probably time to expect a quasi -stationary boundary falling asleep through region by Friday afternoon.

GFS at 18z … good thing that’s beyond 300 hrs I guess - depending on one’s point if view. Overall this run caries a well above normal signal through the ides

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Actually ... looking closer at the features Friday, it wouldn't shock me if NE Mass BDs... There is modest +PP working through Maine during the morning into/thru the afternoon, and then we have eruptions of outflowing convection in the ALB-Brian band down toward MHT by 18z. It's likely that together that cuts into the region - if all sets up that way.

has that light SSW breeze look... probably 78/76. Basically, the water temperatures between the mouth of Buzzard's Bay and Block Island.

Subtle but important differences in this Euro run signify a hotter look Friday and Saturday and Sunday... The front it's been hanging around with is ( awt ) minoring out and leaving the region open to the effects of WAR expansion west, and the ability for greater diurnal heating. Saturday morning has the frontalysis axis into upstate NY-CNE as a returning diffused warm boundary, and that look would be a miserable day from N NJ to SE NH... Probably heat headlnes in that look -

We have weird pancake cu in an atmosphere that's moving from the SW...

Stalled front... slow moving/light steering field aloft ... These cells are just overcoming the rising heights as the WAR ridge is retrograding W. The sun's zapping all that thete-e. Thing is...not sure how the Euro does at 114 hours with the particulars of convection/convective verification, but the orbital synopsis doesn't scream like this can't happen. That axis of convection would rain with impressive rates..

We could conceivably go some distance to correct seasonal hydro deficits between Friday and Saturday ...if fractals don't intervene negatively... Heh.. but that's a nasty look with that Euro's recent several cycles persistently stalling a front/frontalysis between along an ~ DAY-BOS axis. GFS is 70% or so similar but as usual, it doesn't prefer stalling features and keeps it moving SE into a 594 DM height wall which makes less sense... Pros are the immense theta-e pooling. I'm seeing the 00z Euro actually gets Friday back to 90F along the Pike, but DPs are nearing 75 at that time in the 2-m DP product as depicted over at Pivotal. Forget the HI talk for a moment, that's gotta boil up some big CAPE. If accessible, even an accidental pixel shower out of random CU would water board a down town crossing.. We don't need very obvious triggers in that environment, and the Euro is outright modeling a explosion of slow moving 3"/hr along said/implied convergence - even with the rising heights capping matters.