Typhoon Tip

To me ( ...seein' as anyone at all asked and gives a shit about mo ) EWR is sort of the equivalent lunacy of using Logan for the 'pedestrian' temperature, but going in the other direction - so to speak. The circumstance at Logan, for those privy to geography and local climate ... is almost entirely irrelevant to the Boston Commons ...certainly by the time we're out by the Cambridge side of the city - more over, those around the immediate metro-west, ...Waltham, Newton.. Milford ..etc... will use Logan's reading to point check their temp (as lay-persons that even though were born and raised and home dwelling over eastern SNE ...they have no clue how/why we're even having this discussion). They just think weather forecasting is a joke, ...not knowing that the discrepancies are because 'the humanity of operational Meteorology' acts like it is possible to uncover the Quantum Mechanical secrets that construct the very f'n cosmos that creates all of reality... but look out! Having a real representative temperature location/ sourcing is a sought solution that God him/her self just concedes can't be done... Contrasting, EWR sets out Totally realistically amid an Industrial arena so choked with NOX by air, footed under by enough heat retaining and re-radiating materials that pizzeria owners in that region could cook their fairs by way of heat-exchangers if they had the tech in place, ... using that location is tantamount to sticking a thermometer up the asshole of society's body to test the convention center prior to the function. They may figure out that ...some work in the vicinity of that station site bumped the device so that it points directly at one of those anuses, the jet wash out of the run-way B out EWR ...I don't know, and fix it.. but what's that going to do, It's going to lower the temp to just bullshit.

If this distancing historic anomaly ever happens it would present a distinguishing unique problem

BOS 99

Agree with dewpoint… It’ll add today. Both Fitchburg and Boston Logan nicked 90 prior to 930 this morning. it seems big heat is a slam dunk but how much? Kind of a narrow allowance ceiling scenario with all that convective junk contaminating skies not so far away upstream… In fact we’ve had periodic high-level miasma fanning out from that Michigan strobing overnight, overnight overnight and into this morning, and when you’re dealing with higher end heat any little perturbation in insulation takes off whole degrees.

Fwiw- I was over there in Kittery Maine during yesterday afternoon and evening and the air smelled pleasantly like the ocean and the temperature was 86 by the time I got onto Route 1?passing the Trading Post. And then further down Haley Road it was actually only 84 …but that road is also draped over pretty heavily by tree canopies – it’s only about 3 miles from the actual beaches at that point, too. But what makes it interesting is that just 10 minutes earlier along I 95 just before the tolls it was 98. In fact… The whole way up from around Westford mass to the 495 split off well up the way from Haverhill was between 99 and 100 but I figure that was just the highway heat tube effect. Most Davis or home stations within 2 miles of my house look like they maxed out around 97 yesterday. But it seems like there was weird decline spots like Fitchburg couldn’t get past 93 while other NWS sites like Bedford made it to 97 or 98

The other aspect about tomorrow and expectations for top tier heat is the DPs are <65 over the vast region... Not sure if the lows will stay elevated enough to stage the morning. We like 75 to 78 mins ...such that it's 85 by 9 ... etc... 10 after 10 and so on. We use up the insolation recovering from 65 and we'll end up 96 instead. Brrr

I just drove from Westford to Ayer and the dash temp read 94 to 96 the whole way and it f'n felt like that man - woof (interior NE Mass)

Fwiw - Pivotal's nifty floater still surfaces 101 across Boston's metrowest/interior SNE, per the 00z cycle. That's the 18z number, too - Pivotal doesn't do the 21 hour - The 06z cycle also went up a tick at what looks like maybe ASH(?) per Trop Tidbits, from 98 to 99

After having been a fan of the game for many years ...and also following the behavior of this team's personnel rotations vs success and failure over the last 20 years, that experience keeps telling me that this organization is not one that is top heavy in baseball actual intelligence. It has been one that has won in spite of that, as much as delusions of grandeur ( bit of snark there..) has kept times of loss dependably rationalized. This teams has had more lightning in a bottle seasons then any other in the Majors, spanning the last 15 years - I think they've been more lucky than many would face less accept. They may be an organization that is more top heavy with lots of money and a deep passion ( perhaps)e, together, but not really with acumen, inside the inner power core. It almost smacks like the happy go-lucky 'disconnected' elite wealth bubble that are completely reliant upon those they've appointed to 'tell them when aspects are going good or bad' They are not really 'in touch' ...until ... (and I'm imagining more so at this pint), it starts to hit them economically - which judging by the loyal fans and the sold out ball park, cheering on pathetic Red Sox runs, while the Blue Jays blithely and willing take a score more akin to an average football game for their side ... these wealthy owners may not be getting that message, because, as long as they're making money..? Also, perhaps that detached reality is synonymous with gullibility, too. Sort of easily lulled and manipulated by said rampart of appointed advisers, being baseball passionate billionaires that otherwise may not really know what they are doing. This organization needs to be blown up, badly, and said rampart isn't likely to advise the inner ownership of that necessity, because it means them too. Whether it is their fault or not, and sometimes failure just happens TO an organization, in spite of good intentions, too. But in either case, the solution is the same - unfortunately.

...and, one should expect with higher confidence, that barrier flow will cease to a new paradigm right around the 2nd week of November - any guesses on what that new paradigm will be/mean ? mm hm...

It's not convincing though... (for me). There's a WAR flex going on after a week in the ensemble guidance, but all modeling I've seen whether in singular depiction, or aggregate techniques, express it's expanding heights up the EC via accelerating mid level ambient wind flow. It makes that era prone to side swiping cool fronts despite the heights Typically, the WAR node expands and gains height, and then ..retrogrades toward the EC to eclipse and then continue expanding W ...etc. That's the typology. The models are doing the retrograde climo, but they are pinning the westerlies in position and thus squeezing the retrograde underneath. This enhances the westerlies wind velocity/ambient summer polar jet from lower Alberta to New England, instead. Thing is, you wouldn't think we would be looking at 95 on Saturday, and a possible 98 on Sunday, when looking at this circulation mode, So, there's no reason or necessary logic in presuming that this, won't also host blazing air masses... In fact, this particular 240 GEF's mean (500 mb anomaly) perfectly illustrates the WAR retrograding under a squeezed flow. So there are signs we could roast ..but that flow still could be reserving the right to sore-butt a forecaster's foresight. lol We seem to be observing some kind of planetary agglomeration of physical processes, the emergence of which creates this unrelenting super synoptic barrier jet ... pinned in place, that is a WNW flow across SE Canada. The WAR is present in this latter image above...but it's being ablated by that grinder

I can see the vil and crispie feeders from here.

I'd watch out from MHT to CON

Yeah..so Sunday looks like a hundo contender on this Euro cycle.

Holy hell at BED... Decimal/rounding games, notwithstanding, but 97/70 soothes a HI of about 105 -

You may get your WAR August I'm not hugely impressed with heat days 5 through 10 when utilizing the 500 mb non-hydrostatic height cinema. I see too many opportunities for side swiping shallow house cleaner troughs... It looks like once we get past Sunday it may be a week of 89 --> 86 --> 90 --> 84 over 60 DPs, then we'll see if that complete and almost scary looking HC expanding clear to lower Canada has any legs. If it does, that would interesting in that first week of August. Again...just going by the 500 mb evolution of the heights. Usually... that metric "winds" over the surface - That all said, the GFS has a particular gift side swiping troughs no matter what is happening - so

Classic cell split.. . Meanwhile, linearity formulating

You're into watching, are ya -

gotta watch those

Just gonna say - looks suspiciously out on it's own like you see -

This is actually kind of impressive... Despite the heights not really falling much, there must just be too much CAPE that when mixed with bulk shear ..etc. Cells erupting in S Vt/E Ny... N Nj as well... S-N orient (apparent) orographic assisted CU towers along and E of the Berk spine probably cuts loose soon. 92/74 locally ftw -

Massive watch area... wow. Pretty much all of New England.

Hm... not sure I've ever seen Logan 91 on a S wind...

I'm sure it's been advanced over in the convection thread by a large areal coverage watch is posted -

But CC abandoned the trough mechanism.. LOL... I bet there was a time in the distant solar-system's earlier life, prior to Venus' run-away CC ... when their atmosphere always felt like a thunderstorm that could never happen. I'm joking, but this SPC and slight risk and all that, looked much more promising to deliver back 4 days ago... But since, like all troughs have done this season, the models slowly backed away from the bully arrival and that's sort of lowered expectations some.