Typhoon Tip

12z GFS is the more likely solution for that thing... which, not without sensitivity to the matter, is like a maleficent turn through a burn ward with a spritzer of rubbing alcohol ... oh well.

https://phys.org/news/2023-02-antarctic-ice-january-climate.html

Fwinotw - the 12z NAM is about 5 to 10kts stronger with the wind max carving down the Rockies at 18 hours... I'm not on Pivotal or faster intake sites - relying on TT at the moment... but that "could" translate favorably along the EC out in time. we'll see -

First nape day ? Btw (you’ll love this) … today marks the end of the perennial solar minimum … begins the solar transition. It’s like saying it’s the first day of ‘sun spring’. Subtle at first will ensue a steadily increasing but noticeably warmer and warmer direct sun sensation. And yes .., exposed parked cars … even on cold days … will tend to toast inside. HAHA the best part! I’ve noticed this many years ago as pretty coherent upon this time every February … Then upon later learning of the solar min/tran/max. It was like a ‘whoa. right!’ moment. Made perfect sense. Anyway … it’s probably as good a date as any to designate the beginning of ‘nape season’. It’s when light wind sunny moments … even in comparably cold air gives that allusion …almost “protection” inside a fragile soothing bubble. And the car thing. Etc. I’ve walked down the street in calm, 33 F air under cobalt blue sky, immersed in mid February sun and could swear it must be much warmer. Actually ...Friday looks too breezy for the direct exposure aspect.

‘WW’ ?

Mm I would stick to ‘uncertainty that could break more favorably during the 2nd half of this month,’ …and leave March out if it. Just IMHO.

Heh … not sure about the “all of March” aspect, but there’s contention for the second half if this month, sure. There’s no valid means to asses longevity over a pattern that’s iffy. If any presenter suggests that the listener should be politely very skeptical. That actually sounds like an add on fantasy lol If anything there are longer termed planetary indicators for a warm spring - btw.

Timing is everything in this particular case.. heh - even gotta thread the needle with cut-offs, which are inherently the opposite of the typical needle threader wave structure. Jesus that's a bad year LOL It seems there's window for a spike in deepening right near the lower M/A skies. but it's unclear at best whether that can translate up the coast. ah hell, it's about having anything interesting to track at all for me at this point. No sense of loss with this one. I'm really more intrigued with the complete telecon massacre setting up beyond that. Either that, or the models are fighting that signal based on biases... The last half of the month is officially in coin flip status though -

It's a classic 'bowling' season system, actually. Spring incarnate. I realize it is just Feb 8 ... but it is what it is. This event is precisely the type referred to by the social-media vernacular, 'bowling season' Just a guess ( lol ) but it might annoy any winter enthusiast that needs to play rationalization games. You know? hold onto internal narratives that are based on plausibility ( which by definition are seldom facts), rather than having to accept those kind of very valid observational comparisons. Rubbing it in a little bit ... but this system as described and illustrated in the modeling cinema, it is about 100% likeness to spring cut-off bowling ball. The N/stream abandoned this thing in the modeling about 4 .. 5 days ago, and no model run I've seen, since, has really demoed any attempt to reintroduce that stream interaction. It was originally dumping some modest/crucial N/stream reinvigorating dynamics ...roughly near the Dakota longitudes. Without it, the southern aspects left behind have to be more potent to feed-back on the surrounding and end up a d-drip dose. haha Anyway, it seems there is a subtle up-tick in the mechanical detection coming off the Pacific. The observed "slight" model reasons for improved optimism since 12z yesterday has been in tandem with the S/W relay - not sure that is just chance. Overnight, the ensemble means did bump a little teasingly more W over the W Atl, and also 2 or so mb deeper. Not enough... The mechanics are now situated within the more physically realized sounding domain over land, so going forward, not sure we are going to get more out of this "correction". We'll see.

That’s what I was thinking… And those large sleet pellets here were actually more like hail because they were larger opaque spheroids …they weren’t clear like sleet PL

even the ICON ‘of bad’ model trended

Bump for relevancy … we’ll have see if the N reposition by GFS was just a coincidence

yup...last 10 days of the month.

Switch

May come stormin' back N whence the relay gets underway this evening and overnight. Not a forecast - but there is a non-zero probability that this thing's missing something due to assimilation over the E Pac. Some of this system's getting lost to us in recent runs is also related to the handling of the western ridge and the N/stream sliding over top of it. We had some implications for phasing up through a couple day's ago, but now the ridge is positively tilting and the N/stream is displacing E of the southern aspect ...thus missing phasing. Not sure if that part can correct and probably won't, but in the off chance the southern aspect relays in stronger it could adjust that along the EC.

I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure.

There's a landscape machinery repair and sales type outfit here in town, and you drive by there and there's rows of neglected snow blowers, sparkly as though wearing their best clothes ...standing in wait on adoption day at the local orphanage. Putting their best behavior foot forward they're smiles in waste. They were born into this world in haste, but now ...for most of them ... they'll never be a part of a family.

numerical PNA from the GEFs basis is trying to rise in last night's computation, perhaps picking up on limiting warm up pattern length. We'll see if that has legs. The spatial interpretation still illustrates a PV situated on our side of the hemisphere, with N-NE Pac occasional ridge presentation - not hugely amplified, nor deeply anomalously cold over the Canadian shield ( geopotential heights) but if that is true (in the EPS and GEPs as well ) doesn't exactly lend to warmth.

Save for the 18 hour arctic headline event... Seems that was pretty well nailed down, though the GFS - if anything - was too warm until maybe 3 cycles before the invasion swept through. Otherwise, yup ... I remember a couple of BDs last year that ended up milder like that ...not hugely so, but 2 or 3F ... I was thinking then that it's getting a little weird that both sides of boundaries exhibit the similar error behavior - if not so much by scalar magnitude therein. anyway yeah. Folks should should just protocol a 2 F add-on as an auto adjust. LOL and go up from there.

I've been noticing this for years, actually. I don't look at any MOS or 2-meter T products anymore, as my ability to quick calc the adiabat and adding some perfunctory ( CC ?) five. That does vastly superior to any of those machine interpolations. It's weird that all modeling technology, despite any source ... is low on 2-m, always. Well - not always... If it's inundated saturation, sure. I don't believe - seriously - that's CC.. I think there's a systemic problem in mixing/BL handling. It's hard to know for certain what drives that. It's also typically worse from roughly now through early August... every year.

Every year has it's own 'personality' ... I agree this year's been a little unusual - to put it softly ... - wrt to the bold statement. I mentioned this to Will when commiserating yesterday, that this year has been strangely failing in despite some more advantaged/conventional aspects. Take 2006-2007.. At least through mid January, that year had no conventional aspects. Nothing... it was utterly shut completely down, both pattern, and contained events. 0 winter definition. Period. For 45 days... This year, that was not true... yet, may as well be the same result.

wouldn't that be hilarious... I can see that in the opening scene of a comedic genre film, where there's rush to cut to commercial because the star of the movie, a hapless on-camera talen, loses it, and his/her exit interview is an extended outlook that that says, "piece of shit" for the next 10 days

Haha... I was just going to say... well, actually, I was going to say, "the GFS has no interest in a warm up at all" ... In fact, that looks like a steady diet of flat waves capable of snow right through the SE ridge flex. ...actually it does have a cutter, too. little hyperbole. Re the Euro: its precarious synoptics, nearing D10 ( high confidence, I know!), totes an 850 mb continental WCB with 850mb of +13C. The PGF suggests 15-20 kts of tumbling mix, too. I checked the RH fields just for shits and giggles and they're nada on clouds. 700, 500, 300's all < 50% RH at 18z preceding... That would be probably 74F day. Yep... here we go again. Just like to remind, ...we put up mid 80s off 13C at 850, as we went super adiabat - dry air heat late winter into early spring, prior to green up, can mix BL very tall. That was in 2017. The point is...it can happen, not claiming any analog. So ironically, heat has a mechanism for over producing prior to the continental DP sucking kinetic heat. That said, precarious should be underscored. The entire Canadian shield is actually -20 or lower at 850 mb, if/when very stupidly using the Euro at this range. And actually ...the gradient between the warm tongue of air described above, and that cold mass near by in Canada, is very steep. This is like sniffing out a mere warm sector to me ( wrt the Euro...), more so than defining an extended pattern stay. I mean it seems that way.. That cold lurking by, which is present in GEFs ensemble systems too... so a smidge of cross guidance support on the gradient idea.., is a mere synoptic giga movement from ending any debate. Well anyway... I realize the La Nina climo this, and historic precedence for torching that... yup, all that. But we have to pay attention to metrics too, and a progressive pattern trend with embedded opportunities for amplitude, with so much cold loaded not far away, could also lend to GFS type evolution - even if its perhaps overdoing it. The funny thing is... if you took the GFS' 00z snow event around that time, and averaged with the Euros 74 F utopia, what do you get? The same 42 F cloudy p.o.s. agonizingly uninspired boring winter we've had all along. Yup...that's my official forecast... piece of shit. LOL

Yeah good question but after studying the graphs of the propagators (I can’t pick it up right now I’ll do it tomorrow night if anyone’s interested) … The propagation is a logarithmic decay in a downward progression gradually increasing the x-coordinate until it finally breaches the tropopause. So that curvature and trajectory typically takes 20 days. The AO, it doesn’t start interacting with the tropopause that’s when the index goes negative because that’s when the stabilization inversion starts breaking down the vortex; blocking nodes erupt and the annular structure of the polar region buckled around them.

You’re right… But I kind of nested a point in there that if we map what you’re saying over the top of Lanina climo …that kind of changes the landscape a little. I mean we’re just talking early prognostic measures here …it can certainly break either way. After having studied those sudden stratosphere warming events going back to 1979 very intently over the years I’ve just come to find those that happen in February are less representative in forcing the negative AO in spring also not as much realization of negative temperature departures at mid latitude. I also agree that the application of SSW is - at least for me - come under question for the usefulness frankly. Because I’ve seen the AO meander quite negative in years where there’s a SSW and subsequent propagation took place … you couldn’t parse out what was being caused by the SSW what was just there because of other planetary mechanisms