Typhoon Tip

Well yeah ... ( sorry not in the conversation) but just look at the typical ZR sounding. It's I think I read 3,200? typically.. before the +C's interval Much shallower and the drops have more therms and you start losing - but it also matter how cold the inversion layer is, too..etc. But if the cold layer extends higher, PL start occurring. So any elevation say 2.8K might be in the coldest region of the inversion integral, prior to the temp started to rise much above that - so you're getting glom accretion.

Keeping in mind, expanding HC --> summer circulation mode changes? - that's become more coherent in the last 10 years... It actually began ( empirically ) in the 1990s - I think that's when it was first observed. Personally I noticed the 1998 super nino was like a gateway and things have been interestingly ( increasingly so..) different, almost subtle, ever since. Point being, it's not as detectable 15 years ago as it is now... There are obviously other factors that contribute to a season's total favorable or not favorable basal state. When other aspects may be offsetting ..those become dominant, perhaps then masking a "longer term" HC aspect - I agree with you there. That would be more likely ( intuitively) over a longer sense ... but it's not the only factor. However, if we remove favorable factors and leave the basin open to some sort of stasis that is a weaker HC domain ...it's equally hypothetical ( to me anyway LOL fwiw - ) that a shitty HC circulation eddy is not as conducive. It's a posit - it's fine. Doesn't have to be right. Just assessing some sort of logical circuitry. That's the beginning of science I suppose. Looking around ...I don't see any other reason why the Basin would be so productively low.

It also depends upon one's curriculum counseling.. A good college program might assess a student's progress after Freshman year ...and offer different pathways more suited. If a student isn't pulling their weight in the advancing applied math aspects, they may be exposed to more media-related disciplines. Lyndon State College used to do that. I interviewed to go there back in the late 1980s... A friend a bit younger than I went/graduated from there in the early aughts. ...He started out in media and ended up going more research pre...while other kids opted more communications, with minors in Met.. the idea there to be a TV weather bunny. But ( LOL ) I know three TV Mets, and one has a Bachelor's, the other two have Masters in Meteorology. But I guess that just comes down to the peregrinations of life and how ever opportunities present themselves along the way...blah blah. Up at UML ...back in the 1990s that school had no media prep at all. It was entirely prequel to graduate level. It was intense. The Senior requirement was to derive Navior-Stokes...free hand. We didn't have "math cad" and whatever techy aids Millennials now walk and talk with this pathological entitlement attitude as a result. Lol... ( just kidding Millennials) ... we also started out with 40 some odd Freshman and I think finished with 12 or 15. I never went beyond that. I was not a particularly good student. I also graduated late... like, really late. So finding some grad fit somewhere felt like a culdesac life anyway. Things worked out much better as a forsaken Meteorologist misfit neglect, with an unrealized life passion as a circumstantially stuffed intellect instead ... so yeah waaay better.

I think you were close to nailing it several weeks ago when you mentioned CC ... yup - been thinking so, myself .. for several years. Just waiting for this to happen and now it is - not sure it's just randomness. Hypothesis: With the noted changes in the summer time hemisphere ( circulation totality) (that are attributed to CC -) ... the TC sounding is in trouble. It's not so much the thermodynamics of it - although I suspect it is too being affected - but there is odd shearing mechanics everywhere. It has to do with HC expansion to be blunt. Folks ( directed at the straw man) need to be aware that expansion in the context of HC does not mean a stronger Hadley Cell. The circulation in fact weakens in strength, while conserving total mass transport by spatial increase. This breaks down the strength of the trades below the 500 mb to the sfc... Metaphorically, it 'hole - punches' the interior of the circulation domain space, too. Both circumstances that are hostile to TC genesis due to shearing tendencies. This has ramifications spanning seasons. We head into winters with increased OHE ... and bleed/radiative rates being constant, that sets the table for the following spring and summers to be very warm. It's making sense - CC is like a battery ...and the ocean being a factor of 4 more capacitance of thermal energy than air, the seas are a pretty solid candidate for the "anodes to that battery". But, counter-intuitively, it effects the winters. The Pacific piss-pool up there meandering around the NE Pac(PDO) is now being blamed on CC, and is likely contributing to the -EPO tendencies in winters. It also sharpens baroclinic mean potential along the eastern sides of mid latitude continental regions. That enhances PWAT in adjacent land regions. ... there's a lot of issues with failing to dissipate oceanic heat content, and many of them are protracted aspects... where aggregate/cumulative over time.

Ha! I've observed this phenomenon with that particular guidance as persistent since roughly 2016 ... regardless of season. It began about whence the rapid version upgrades began. As a conceptual extension: I am not sure what the exact performance scales would reveal. It may be a better at hemispheric/continental scopes, ..perhaps "masking" it's error in manufacturing cool nuances - it seems to be uniquely skilled in physically manifesting them out there in time. But it "seems" to me that it has to correct some 20% off it's late mid/extended range features quite a bit - albeit anecdotal. Case in point, these huge SW carving BD troughs the last three cycles over the lower Maritimes, backing down cold frosts into Maine. I do think ( btw ) Maine has a shot at a season's first wide spread frost, anyway ... a week from this morning, but the GFS has been overly bullying too much cold. Another aspect it loves to do is build big continental non-hydrostatic arcs that encompass ORD and BOS, but you look at the sfc evolution ...and it almost invariably has a giant cool high pressure parked over the top of it, such that everyone even inside the ridge has an east flow. I know why it does that...anecdotal or not! It's too strong/weighty with the N-stream as a permanent base-line error. So, it physically ends up with surplus into confluence aspects - it becomes a mass balancing problem so ends up with too much high pressure.

There could be daily crispies for cloud enthusiasts ... late Sunday through late Tuesday. Three days of cyclic convection. Not bad for mid September. Also, week 2 seems slated for some warm anomalies. Tough to hang one's hat on an outlook for warm temperatures after the 15th of the month.. but, the signals been fairly persistent in the ens means. Oper. Euro extrapolates, as does the GFS - no comment on exact magnitude.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-europe-hottest-summer-eu.html

appears that spread's ubiquitous ..up down north south east west all dimensions.

Mmm... damn, you just missed the opportunity there - Instead of NOAAnet launching missiles at ECMWF... etc, it should have "made the technological leap into quantum state controls" - controlling the weather is immediately weaponized ... That'd be cool!

I’m wondering if we’re getting one last run at 90 … hmm maybe a handful of 87s but the gfs just refuses to quit attempting

End is visible ... She's breakin' up on radar. Other than that RI events yesterday and some sporadic CT, this was handled pretty well over all by guidance. The convective totaling in those monstrous local scales ... not really in the purview of modeling skill the general 1.5 to 4" coverage however, is, and that was done pretty good. I'd say the GFS came in behind the Euro overall.

FIT reported 1.93 yesterday, then 1.83 since 00 GMT ... Isn't that 3.76? Why is NWS reporting 1 and change along rt 2?

Heh. Phew. That should keep the totals down huh

Interesting yeah. - there’s also an interesting band of enhancement behaving independent of the general motion of rad over NE Mass. I’ve been using COD, … which isn’t very good of course. But it’s been wobbling like a BD boundary. I checked sfc obs and there’s no obvious indication of a boundary even though it wobbled SW into that position a couple hours ago.

It is true that colder air does not hold as much as warmer air. However George was talking about the giant rains that came out of completely different kinematics that are non- akin entirely to those mechanics associated to snow. It’s comparing incomparable processes.

Did you notice that sudden collapse south of the northern edge up your way. I saw that an hr ago and thought it was just local mt eddy or something but it’s unilaterally along the entire length of the shield … Maybe that halts? But was that modeled to do that - if it doesn’t stop collapsing we’re done even down here by 2 o 3am

Mmm. The synoptics are part of this but they are weak. Mostly weak synoptics operating on huge PWAT, modulated locally by convection

Payin' attention ? - up here in this "synoptic" rain shield this thing is intensifying markedly over the last 2 hours, with lots more 40+ dbz pixelation packing in

There's some variability around area tippers but 1.10 to 1.50 seems to be the range here along Rt 2.

Agreed with this ... I've been writing about this for a couple days here and elsewhere, that the synoptic forcing in this is/was weak, but there is huge parametric situational surplussing with PWAT's exceeding 2" ivo of a convergence - same idea. I also mentioned that this would require a mode switch rad but that's old school - it sounds like there's new tech in the field ( just based upon what you've said) that determines the nature of drop physicality? That's fascinating. ...InCREdibly nerdy but interesting nonetheless. In terms of modeling performance - you know I've seen this before ... There really is a gap where big parameters coincide with weak forcing; sometimes it does, and some times does not bring hell. But you're right - the models splashing 8" totals. I spoke about that earlier, that it doesn't mean no big event just because the continuity sucks. It seems this is more about where we are in technology/modeling - the existence is as important in the runs.

Helluva bright band in down there - they must be getting agglomerated PL's the size of hail, huh. And the sick isentropic lift band in S VT/NH is putting down 3.5"/hr rates ... we got a long way to go on this 42" er

averaging about .75 so far from this event around town, all of which has fallen since midnight. Just off the top the head that's the most in a 24-hr period since maybe the end of June. Someone S of the Pike near the border of NE CT is choking in a water boarding-

This always seems to happen to me. The prophetic 'water cooler,' seemingly innocuous statement meant purely in jest ends up just f'n happening. My neighbor and I were discussing the frivolity of "drought" in New England, not more than a week ago - prior to this ordeal even materializing in guidance. I said to the guy, "...Climate has a way of finding its way back to normal - right? whether that is done all at once, or over an extended series of events, some how some way, we always seem to end up where we're supposed to be" ... The impetus being, it is almost impossible to finish a year with only 5" of water Maybe this is taking the all at once road? Speaking of models, assuming this does go on to 4-7" and so forth, the Euro takes the prize for first awareness. Whether it vacillated after the fact ( they all do anyway ) that guidance picked this up pretty coherently last Thursday. Just sayn' I was on the fence with this in all honesty. I think I've expressed both ends of the pro and con... pretty much even in both directions. I never liked the general weak synoptic forcing. Models were jumping around with location/max too much, too - a continuity signal that sometimes means too much, just as often as it can be ominous. They also disagree. The Euro likes roughly SE VT to N.. RI for 2.5 to 3.5" ... while the GFS is insisting on nearly double those amounts, hammering much of CT/ HFD to NYC. The NAM? ...two runs in a row of 6-8" pretty much pan-dimensional HFD-PVD to CON NH is going to be a neat test - but that model takes synoptic 101 for audit anyway.. . Point being, these disparities are just glaring enough that this is a nerd's porn for model competition. It may be the common theme is that the models don't do as well in weaker synoptic mechanisms. They need that "loud" physical scaffolding to perform better. That does not mean no big event though... It's been a sneaky difficult forecast effort here. There's a gap there ... where big parameters coincide with weak forcing sometimes does, and some times does not bring hell. I do/did like the notion of PWAT pooling along a stationary boundary - those tend to overproduce. That thing in Kentucky several weeks ago is an example ... ( though that's not intended as an analog). These dense theta-e concurrent with slow moving and/or diffuse frontal convergence ...man, once triggered, it's sort of like the 'atmospheric dam' breaks.

I wondered about that Essex Co...

Lol... heh, I dunno about that, but I agree the 6-8" is ludicrous. What this is, is a modest synoptic forcing with convective modulation mixed in. The models can't pin point where those modulation points will be...but more than less 'recognize' the intrinsic potential. So someone walks by and slaps the side of the cray and that's all the trigger it needs in the super computer LOL. I can see 2-3" as the general potential, with the caveat in mind that this has a higher order for uncertainty than is normal for short duration lead. So if it is 1.5" or 4" that range is in (unfortunately) a broader envelope of possibilities.