Typhoon Tip

The Euro still looks like it's fantasizing that trough amplitude across S-SE Canada D5 --> 6 ... Right on that relay seam, it seems to do that ...bestows anything in the field in that region with extra amplitude I can't really see where it comes from... Hm, I may be wrong about that. But I'm waiting for that to correct flatter.

Interesting... the trend line leaped out at me more so than those years back whence ...

The core just got ejected again ... Couple hours ago ( still is the case ) minoring anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona were tending more toward the N as opposed to right at her - that implied lowering shear. But it doesn't appear the TC is responding to a more favorable environment - so the speculation may not be seeing some layers...

28 diurnal spread so far... not bad. 43 to 71. Incredible in situ 71/46

Now-obs: ...I'm seeing anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona beginning to move more perpendicular to the storm's west motion - that may be a negation of shear taking place. Meanwhile, there is convection beginning to re associate with eastern/inner core region just in the last hour and half. These may or may not be related - I suspect they are. These might be signals for a better structure ensuing...

Nah... I was talking to you, friend. Trying to offer some reassurance. You don't have to answer to that sort of antic - if you don't want to. But it's wasting your time. Ray is making it all about him, which I don't care to be involved in - When I said that to you, I had 0 awareness that he was involved in the comments you were making. This is all I am going to say on this moving forward. Just letting you know.

That convection is quasi-disassociated from Fiona's core ... so that might atone for that behavior. Convection on its own that collapses often takes on subtle rotation - I've seen that do that both cyclonically and anti-cyclonically. I think it's just momentum distribution at the time the collapse occurs ...If it subtly favors one or the other, than the collapsing/DVM will briefly exaggerate that motion by centrifugal acceleration/conservation of angular momentum. Think ice-skater drawing their extremities inward, and they speed up rotation? When the mass collapses, it goes inward so if there is a tendency of momentum in ether direction, that will exhibit briefly..

ok, again - I didn't know you were in the motivation in that. The phenomenon I am talking about is right/correct - Whether that relates to you in that conversation's thread, I'll take your word for it - but I also don't give a shit. lol - wow

What oh, I didn't know that conversation had you in tow... I was just responding to ... whomever that poster was for what the content. Whatever - Like I said in the next sentence, "That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum" And it is, sorry - right for the right reason.

The normal error for TC position/movement between any day 5- and 7, has a greater sensitivity that normal for Fiona. The reason has to do re-ordering super synoptic across the N arc of the Pacific, and how that structures ( eventually...) the flow over N. America. The N. Pac is in a state of yawing because of complex/extended topic ...but whatever for now. In determining where Fiona will situated by day 5 ... that much may actually be more confident than normal. The features that normally contribute to forcing/steering area not really in a heightened state of variability, so odds are very much in favor of the fairly tightly constrained consensus for somewhere N of the Isle of Hispaniola by 72 hours. ...There is some wild card options for less(more) intensity due to two factors: One, shear in the near terms. You know there really does seem to be something to "survival trends" aft of a TC's present state, when assessing future. It's objectively shown that systems that survive shear, tend to survive more shear. Other systems can go poof the moment they get smacked around a bit. With that ultra sciency sounding rendition ... Fiona has not only been surviving, it's managed to climb some mph ratings - although I'm willing to hunch if anyone else is, that NHC isn't shy about doing that because it is nearing population and PR sort of requires the awareness... Two is whether or not Fiona interacts with the western or eastern end of Hispaniola. The Central Cordillera of western half of that land mass serrates to 6-8K feat, with some peaks nearing 10K. The contrasting ...the eastern ~ half of that landmass is planar, ranging from near sea-level to 600 feet. A weak Fiona obviously would benefit by NOT attempting to cross the western end of Hispaniola, then. A stronger/strengthening Fiona might fair better, but not much. Any TC attempting to cross that western aspect is going to disconnect itself above the waist.

You shouldn't allow your self to be "gas-lit" into questioning why it is you engage, or need to justify your commitment to your passion. Unless your Jeffrey Dahmer ...LOL Really, when a poser drive-by pot shots a comment about how this doesn't deserve its coverage, in a tenor that's clearly dismissive ..or in a lot of ways ...condescendingly lofty, they are really being reflective about themselves. They likely have some sort of psycho-babble difficulty or issue in their own wiring where controlling their own disappointment escapes them. Yet, they find some sort of personal amelioration in lecturing others about a virtue they don't really have enough of for themselves - self control. Control that would have prevented their own disappointment in the first place. I call it disappointment, but in this context it's kind of a loaded definition at that. That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum. We've all done that from time to time ... some more jocular, while others appear to be more 'instructively' gaslighting. If one has an innate passion for tropical weather phenomenon, than tropical phenomenon anywhere in reality is going to draw their attention - hey man... life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness... And like all human beings, ...they may then seek other's perspective for that essence of the shared experience. That's normal. The posters that chide that normalcy ... part of our own maturity, too, it's not so much that we don't respond- to us the real 'bore' is even reading their shade. If it is not "funny" or something very obviously jocular, we seldom get half way through the first sentence and we're already scrolling... Or should be.

ah think I found it.. .

Where on that TT site is the linkage to track guidance ? ...I've poked around several times - is that a paid thing? If not it seems to be elusively placed

Over achieving pattern that’s too early to latch into a real deal airmass

I and other Mets and climo guys have exchanged observations over the last 10 years relating to this pre-lapse and lapsing of cold season phenomenon. October snow and May flurries have gotten out of control and piling up too much in incidence numbers and well... without getting into a 'irreconcilable' climate squabble with Ray ... we all just need to realize that these metrics aren't really metrics ...not when the climate is unstable. They can't be - they only signify the last time the instability did it's randomness. If we really want to chap asses and start a fight, we could argue that CC is lengthening winter so far that it it's losing distinctive identity altogether. My internal sarcams have at times began thinking of recent winters as more like permanent windy autumns. Like all autumns, they can contain a cold snap and snow event...

Heh.. looks like the Euro's artificially amplifying that trough through S-SE Canada toward the end of next week. Not shocked if that tones down some 20% ... In fact, the models have been whole scale alternating much more than that regarding that.. but for now, we happened to have agreement on more. Still, all guidance is guilty of seeing that range through amplifier... That said, as these air mass get into near term - at this time of year - we can start to see the radiative cooling potential better. For example, we can't really use machine numbers for KFIT/KASH ... KBED out in rural reality for tonight. This is a 'shot before the shot across the bow' air mass, so to speak. Gossamer warmth is quickly going to be escaping to outer space and probably within an hour of the sun hitting the western tree line. Could be a solid geekscapade watching the temp go down like a disgraced cosmonaut this evening. I bet we hit the DPs 1 am. It just 'feels' like a 39er.

Yeah I mean it could certainly be just something about 'this area' but they've been crisscrossing and honking in groups of 4 to 8 at random times all summer. We do have old kettle ponds and small lakes around here, as well as the Nashoba River - it may be that we're just like an aviary airport and my town is under an approach path.

Up...there it is...disconnected ... Good luck TC enthusiasts -

Morning satellite reveals a system that looks like it wants to disconnect the mid level vorticity clean off the low levels ... but it's hangin' in there. You know..it would almost be fitting for this season if that were to just go ahead and happen, and then watch an open swirl with a single CB wrap it's guts around Hisp. like a bug on windshield.

It's may be a useful reminder that NOAA/NHC average forecast error for 120 hours is ~ 175 nautical miles. In this monitoring effort there's a lot of circumstantial sensitivity spanning that distance, at that time. Namely, interactions with land.

Not to poop on the optimism but… that doesn’t look like an overachiever to me - it looks tilted backwards; that deep convection, albeit impressively cold and persistent, appears to be on the eastern edge of the circulation. Maybe we’ll see a center reconnect back wise

If I lived in the northern Leewards on up the PR archipelago I’d be nervous.

Really - source? … not trying to challenge it’s just that the monthly publications from NOAA dating back seem to have a relative sink near by or inside much of the time.

Change is coming … but lol I’ve been seeing them crossing over this region all summer

It's an example of how technology is conditioning people toward the feckless tl;dr thing ...but, that post was not that long on a PC - certainly not compared to 10 ... or 15 yrs ago. My hunch is that folks are doing this engagement predominantly from their portable tech these days, ...where one wrapped sentence looks like a whole paragraph on that interface - this one included ... The rest is quick stimulus dosing - that does not share company with the virtuosity of deeper thought. Combining these two? People just don't read... or read very well. Back in the earlier days of Eastern, I wrote pages for pinned storm outlooks and got PMs from English teachers containing accolades - now? The instant gratification is all about pap on tap, pouring saccharine pop culture crap that doesn't require any thought... and is often taken as gospel - digress. Like I said, diminishing returns No one can stand to make the hot cocoa anymore - they want it already delivered. You know, it's not a huge leap to see how the writers of "The Matrix" came up with that pacification reality to harvest power from human energy. It's really a kind of quasi analog for plugging everyone into their phones and zombifying them into herds of thumb-swiping stimulus junkies for dimes.